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Israel Under Attack, Oil Prices Rise Sharply On Friday, trading in WTI oil futures on the NYMEX closed at USD 82.81 per barrel. And on Monday morning, they opened at a price of USD 85.25 and began to quickly rise in price, reaching 87.24. Natural gas prices have also risen sharply. The reason is Saturday's attack on Israel. And, of course, associations arise with the oil crisis of 1973, when Arab oil-producing countries refused to supply raw materials to the United States and other allies that supported Israel. Then the price of a barrel rose from USD 3 to 12 in six months. Is such a 4-fold increase possible after 50 years? The rise in oil prices seems to hint at this possibility. Nothing can be ruled out. Although the US created a strategic reserve as a result of the oil crisis, it was greatly depleted due to the fight against inflation. Technical analysis of the WTI oil price market shows that: → the price pushed off the lower border of the blue ascending channel, finding support around USD 84; → the price may fall to the lower border of the downward red channel to close the gap; → resistance to growth can be provided by both the median line of the red descending channel and the psychological level of USD 90. However, the main price driver should be expected to be news related to Israel and the position of Arab oil producers. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Strifor || UKOIL-09/15/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Oil continues its steady strengthening, and the medium-term outlook for instruments is positive. However, now, most likely, the price will go for a correction, and it is expected that the instrument will reach level 92, where the balance for pushing is located. In addition, there is a small probability that the price will reach the level of 90.72, from where the price recently recorded the maximum of the current year on impulse. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
10
The Price of Brent Oil Reaches the Level of ResistanceSince the beginning of the month, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by about 10% — this July could be the best month since June 2022. Yesterday, the price of Brent exceeded USD 82, for the first time since April. Among the drivers of oil price growth may be: → production cuts by Saudi Arabia; → restriction of export from the Russian Federation; → expectations of new measures to stimulate the Chinese economy; → summer growth in demand for gasoline and aviation fuel in the US. However, technical analysis tools give arguments to suggest that the July rally may slow down, as: → the price of Brent oil on the daily chart has reached the moving average with a period of 100, which may attract traders to open short positions; → the price of Brent oil has reached the upper limit of the channel (shown in red). The effect of these two factors of resistance may appear as early as tomorrow at 17:30 GMT+3, when the weekly data on oil inventories in the US will be published. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
UKOIL(BRENT)-07/05/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The long idea for oil has been working out very well and after completing the planned path earlier, the level of 77.39 opens for the buyer. A rather difficult obstacle for the buyer, because if not for it, then the price could rise above 78 from the current ones on the impulse. Therefore, in the near future, an approach to 77.39 is expected, then consolidation (most likely) and after a rise above 78. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
3
Crude Oil Analysis: Crude Oil Running on EmptyThe price movements affecting crude oil have been fascinating over the past year and a half. During the period in which many Western governments imposed lockdowns on their population, oil was trading at relatively high prices because of logistical and supply chain difficulties created by enforced stay-at-home orders, whilst nations in Asia such as India, Thailand and Japan continued as normal and required as much of the thick black stuff as possible to keep the wheels of industry turning. Once the folly of lockdowns had tested the patience of most of the Western world and the powers that be could no longer carry them out, everything suddenly went back to normal, but supply chain disruptions continued as the 'work from home' phenomenon was difficult to curtail. Prices remained relatively high. However, in the early months of 2022, many of the same countries that imposed lockdowns began to band together to enforce trade sanctions on the Russian Federation and its industry. One of the largest industries in that particular country is oil extraction and refinement and the production of oil-based energy products. Indeed, Russia is an OPEC+ nation and one of the largest producers and exporters of petrochemical products in the world. These sanctions meant that Russian oil companies could not access their bank accounts in which settlement for oil supply is made; hence many European customers had to begin to settle the supply of oil by Russian companies by paying in Rubles into a bank account in Moscow or face having their supply curtailed. This caused a rise in the price of crude oil and much of Europe to face an energy price crisis in which the cost of heating homes or running vehicles became astronomical. Today, things are somewhat different. The price of crude oil is, compared to a year ago, on the floor. In fact, it is very low compared to even one month ago, and over the five-day moving average until the end of trading on May 12, it is down considerably. On May 2, we witnessed the lowest value of crude oil in over a year, and on May 12, the second lowest since May 2. Brent Crude Oil is down 3.4% over the past five days and a staggering 29.9% in a year. Oil is an interesting asset class, however. This is because it is one of the only consumable commodities that exists. Gold and other precious metals do have an engineering use case, but they are really seen as stores of value as far as investment and trading are concerned, whereas oil is bought and sold entirely for the purpose of use as an energy product; therefore, its value is affected by supply and demand. Right now, many OPEC nations are in the midst of an oil production slowdown. For the month of April, Nigeria's oil production was below 1 million barrels per day, representing its lowest level in 7 months. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and a few other oil-producing nations in the Middle East have been cutting oil production by one million barrels of oil a day, and Russia is set to extend its reduction in production to half a million barrels per day until the end of 2023. As is to be expected, the US Government has criticised this move, but the OPEC nations, which are responsible for the supply of over 30% of the world's oil, are known for being able to control the market to protect the combined value of their assets. In October 2022, the last time a cut in production was conducted by oil-producing nations, an increase in value of 5% took place. This reduction in production is being viewed as a means of curtailing supply to ramp up the price of crude oil; therefore, following the price of crude oil is likely to be interesting given its low value now and potentially high value once the cut has taken place. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Crude Oil Is at Lowest Point in Over a Month as US Economy TeeteOver the past year, the price of crude oil has been interestingly volatile. In keeping with other periods in modern history during which the United States has been involved in geopolitical conflicts with regions outside of the Western world, oil prices have been varying with verve and vigour since 2020. Back in the 1970s, the famous' oil crisis' was caused by members of the OPEC oil-producing nations in the Middle East invoking a trade embargo against the United States following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which took place between the State of Israel and some of its neighbours. The result was extremely high oil prices across Western nations, particularly the United States, due to a lack of supply that could not meet the demand and fuel-saving measures such as the introduction of a 55-mile-per-hour speed limit for motor vehicles. Due to its nature as a consumable commodity, oil is not only a tradeable asset but also an energy product, and the oil-producing nations can use it as a bargaining tool on the political table. Over the past year, the price of crude oil has varied dramatically due to the trade sanctions placed on the Russian Federation by North American and European nations, which have meant that Russian oil companies have not been able to access their bank accounts in which oil supply is usually settled in such nations, hence the need for Western customers to settle directly in rubles to bank accounts in Russia, or to have to face restricted supplies. More recently, just one month ago, Saudi Arabian oil giants reported that they intended to scale back oil production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in an effort to bolster oil prices as part of a large-scale attempt by OPEC+ nations. The status quo has now largely been accepted, and oil supply has been generally steady worldwide, with price fluctuations now part of the trading landscape and the everyday reality for consumers. In Britain, the government introduced a 'cost of living allowance,' payable to many members of the public, in order to assist with the ongoing cost of living crisis, in which the cost of fuel to heat homes or drive to work are both important factors. This week, however, the price of oil has dropped significantly. Brent Crude took a sudden dive in price yesterday from $77.03 per barrel at 8.30 am during the European trading session to $73.60 during the night. This sudden volatility was preceded by a sharp rise to $77.04 per barrel during the previous night, which represented a short-lived spike before the slump made its presence felt. Interestingly, the drop in the price of Brent Crude Oil has continued despite the oil inventories in the United States having decreased by 3.939 million barrels during the course of this week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. Some analysts are levelling the cause of this at the possibility of a debt default by the United States, which is currently being discussed by politicians who may look once again at interest rate increases this week. Should an interest rate rise take place, it would counteract the White House's position early last week when it was considered that inflation had become under control to the extent that any possible interest rate rises in the near future would be ruled out. Next week, President Joe Biden is set to meet with four US Congress leaders. His position has been anticipated as steadfast in the advent of this meeting, with Mr. Biden understood to have declared that he will not negotiate over the US debt ceiling. The debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States currently stands at approximately 123%. To give some indication of where that stands on the world stage, the debt to GDP ratio in the United Kingdom is approximately 85%, and in Switzerland, it is 39%. With oil prices now at a new low, it is worth observing the purchasing patterns of countries with equally good relationships with Europe and Russia with regard to crude oil, such as China, India, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Singapore. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), these five nations are currently engaged in buying oil from Russia's oil giants and then reselling it to European customers. This method of circumventing direct sanctions could ease supply and demand issues further and have an effect on prices. Looking at the cost to consumers, unleaded fuel for vehicles is approximately 1.49p per litre across the UK at the pumps, whereas this time last year, it was almost £2. This article represents FXOpen Companies’ opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to FXOpen Companies’ products and services or as financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Brent Crude Oil price takes a bashing overnightDuring the past two years, oil, along with many other raw material commodities which are used to produce energy products, has been very volatile. Perhaps given the nature of its supply, which is largely in the hands of the OPEC+ countries whose national economies depend on the export of oil around the world, the 'oil cartel' has a lot of bargaining power over its consumers, hence in times of economic strife or geopolitical instability, oil prices have always been ones to watch. First of all there was supply chain and logistical curtailment due to lockdowns across many Western countries, which led to the increase in the price of oil during 2020 and 2021, and then the sanctioning of the settlement accounts of Russian oil companies by European governments which led to any oil bought having to be settled in Rubles in bank accounts in Moscow, leading to rapidly accelerating ruble prices and oil supply constraints for European customers. Therefore, oil prices have been high for 2 years, however this morning during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) took a dive in value and by 8.45am UK time, it was languishing at $76.92 per barrel, a steep drop over yesterday's values and a very noticeable drop compared to this time last week when the value was $82.27 per barrel on January 23, its highest value this month. During the past 30 days, Brent Crude Oil has been very volatile in its values, having begun the month at a low point of $73.08 on January 4, before accelerating past the $80 mark by mid January, then retracting again before heading back to the high of over $82 last week, and now it is back down to the mid-$70s again. Despite the overall rollercoaster ride of volatility this month, Brent Crude Oil is down overall by 4.3% during the past 30 days. This has been an interesting period for commodities traders, and whilst in many Western markets, gasoline prices are now far lower than they were six months ago, the price of crude oil continues to fluctuate considerably. In some cases, vehicle fuel prices at the pumps on the retail market have decreased by over 50p (British) or 50c (Euro) per liter in six months. For example, in July 2022, motorists in the United Kingdom were paying approximately £1.99 per liter, now unleaded fuel is readily available at around £1.50 per liter, and in France, in July 2022 unleaded fuel was retailing at an extremely high 2.20 Euros per liter, whereas during January 2023 it has been selling at anywhere between 1.70 and 1.87 Euros per liter. Volatility is the the lifeblood of trading, so says the old adage, and the oil price this month has certainly been on point in this respect. Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
What is Brent oil?Brent oil is the benchmark by which the bulk of the 100 million barrels of crude oil traded each day is priced. Brent plays a unique role in the global oil industry as a benchmark crude oil on which most other types of crude are priced. If you want to invest in Brent oil, you can continue reading our article for answers to questions such as "What is Brent oil?", "How to buy Brent oil?", "What is the difference between Brent oil and WTI?", "Why does Brent oil prices rise?", "Why does Brent oil prices fall?", "Brent oil prices how to get oil? What is Brent oil? Brent oil is a blend of crude oil extracted from the North Sea in the early 1960s. It is considered a light, sweet type of crude oil. Crude oil is a natural resource that is extracted from the earth and refined into products such as gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products. Brent oil accounts for more than half of the crude oil traded internationally. For this reason, it is an important criterion in the pricing of crude oil. Brent oil is also known as London Brent or Brent Blend. The other main crude oil benchmark used in world markets is West Texas Intermediate (WTI). What is the difference between Brent oil and WTI? Brent oil and WTI are the two major classifications of crude oil. Brent oil is extracted from the North Sea, while WTI is extracted from the USA, primarily Texas. Brent oil accounts for about two-thirds of global oil pricing. Oil produced in Europe, the Middle East and other parts of Africa is priced differently from Brent depending on its characteristics. Crude oil futures are traded on commodity exchanges: Brent oil is traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), while WTI is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Why are Brent oil prices rising? Brent oil stocks are highly sensitive to changes in global supply and demand. Roughly speaking, if demand is high and supply decreases, the prices of brent oil will rise. Both demand increases and fears of supply disruptions put upward pressure on brent oil prices. Global oil demand, on the other hand, is increasing, outpacing increases in oil production and excess capacity. The biggest reason for this is the rapid growth of developing countries. These economies are increasingly industrialized and urbanized, leading to an increase in world oil demand. Why is Brent oil price falling? As with any commodity, stock or bond, brent oil prices fall when supply exceeds demand. OPEC is the main influencer of oil price fluctuations. OPEC is also a consortium of 13 countries, which, according to 2018 statistics, holds almost 80 percent of the world's oil reserves.
SKILLING:XBRUSD
by Forexcues
USOIL 5th DECEMBER 2022Organization of Petroleum Exporters and its Allies (OPEC+) maintained production cuts, keeping production at 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November to 2023. Oil prices weakened as China's zero-covid policy weighed on demand. However, after the regulation was relaxed in a number of cities including Beijing and Shanghai, oil prices slowly moved up. WTI and Brent oil are significantly bullish, this is partly driven by the easing of China's covid-19 lockdown. Technically, oil prices are still in a bearish trend, but bullish is possible in the next few days until the resistance area. recommendation to sell in the resistance area marked by the red area. Prices can go higher, pay attention to several points that can make oil prices tend to be bullish: opec policy, easing lockdown in china, and weakening USD.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
2
USOIL 3rd OCTOBER 2022 - COMBINATION STRATEGYUSOIL Combination strategy with a Trendline, Unfilled Order (UFO) and Psychological level. Trend is a movement that shows where the market is moving. The term "trend" in everyday life is often used to express a situation, where something is in vogue or is gaining public attention. As you know, a trendline is a tool that can be used to recognize the direction of a trend. Therefore, a trendline can serve as both Support (in an uptrend) and Resistance (in a downtrend). Trend line, Its function as a technical tool does not need to be doubted. Besides being able to help identify trends, this tool can also be used to find entry points. In looking for entry points, you can use bounce and breakout opportunities. remember "the trend is your friend". Believe it or not, in forex trading, the trendline is one of the friends that can help you to follow the direction where the market is moving. This trend movement forms a series of sequential waves with the following levels: Peak (High/H), Higher peak (Higher High / HH) Lower peak (Lower High / LH ) Valley (Low/L) higher valley (Higher Low / HL ) Lower valley (Lower Low / LL) By knowing the support and resistance levels, a trader can minimize risks and maximize profits. During a downtrend, a trendline can serve as resistance. But conversely, during an uptrend, the trendline can function as support. In finance market, a psychological level, is a price level in technical analysis that significantly influences the price of the underlying security, commodity or derivative. Usually, the number is something "easy to remember," like a number that is rounded up. Meanwhile, Unfilled order is a shipment of orders that have not been fulfilled and inventory reported by domestic manufacturing companies. historically it can be seen that the balance between buyers and sellers is broken due to high volatility. for example in the case of US30 23rd AUGUST 2022
TVC:USOILEducation
by DNP-FX
2
USOIL 23rd SEPTEMBER 2022Oil prices slipped below the US$85 per barrel level after the US central bank, the Fed, announced an interest rate hike. U.S. oil demand over the past four weeks fell to 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since February, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). On the other hand, there was a 1.1 million barrel increase in crude oil stocks last week. The European Union is considering restrictions on Russian oil prices, as well as on high-tech exports to Russia, as well as sanctions in the event of an escalation of Moscow's war in Ukraine. On the other hand, China's crude oil demand is also still pressured by tight restrictions due to Covid-19. OPEC crude oil exports have been fairly stable, since the high increase in demand earlier this month for an early winter contract. When Russia refuses to 'restrictions on Russian oil prices', and OPEC starts to 'reduce oil exports', that's we can see prices will tend to be bullish.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
3
📉BRENT 08/31/2022: drop to $96❗️📉 Priority direction: Down . 📝 Description: The level of $98.55 for oil (where it is now) is a good entry point to sell. Sellers increase their pressure to the indicated level and this trend is likely to lower the price to the $96 support in the short term. In the medium term, the positive mood remains so far. -------------------------- Thank you for your support, subscribe and share your ideas here 👇 --------------------------
TVC:UKOILShort
by Market-Mentor
4
USOIL 23rd AUGUST 2022Oil prices briefly surged in mid-trade due to a push to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate. However, prices eased back after investors believed that the US central bank's policy this month was to maintain interest rates. Another factor, the US dollar strengthened again to its highest level in five weeks, which limited the increase in crude oil prices. This is because oil becomes more expensive for buyers with non-US dollar currencies. US Dollar Index Oil prices will not be too bearish, this is due to the prospect of higher demand entering the winter season.
TVC:USOILLong
by DNP-FX
9
USOIL 11th AUGUST 2022The United States posted an increase in inventories of 5.5 million barrels in the past week. The realization was higher than the expected 73,000 barrels. Gasoline products supplied also rose in the last week to 9.1 million barrels per day. The figure marks a 6% decline in demand over the last four weeks compared to the period last year. From a fundamental point of view, the oil market continues to monitor the development of oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which was resumed earlier this week. The market is also awaiting the release of monthly oil data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled Thursday.
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
10