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Bitcoin and The China Crackdown :(Seems China is at it again, throwing some serious FUD in the markets. Just seeing it all, so i assume that China has caused this drop. Think that worries me a lot, Yesterday we had a very bullish daily candle close. Normally worst case, we would have seen a very weak follow through to like 37 and than after day or 2 seeing it drop again. Thats the worst case i know in my 20 years, after a bullish candle close like we had yesterday. But as we can see obviously, price dumped way below yesterdays low even, i am not sure, but don't think i have ever seen a daily candle like this fail like we are seeing today. This worries me a lot. I dont want to spread any fear, just what we are seeing today, is not normal. I also can't judge how bad this China crackdown is. I hear many different opinions from people, some saying it's even bullish for the market, long term that is. Because now mining is concentrated for 65% in China i think, with this crackdown, it will be spread more evenly over the world. I do agree with, always better to have things more decentralized I do believe long term that's probably better, but Bitcoin does need to survive it short term. How big are the China miners bags? Will they sell everything now? Which will put a lot of pressure on the price obviously, if they sell?. These are questions, i don't have the answers for, so i don't dare to say this time if it's Whale tricks to make retail sell the lows and then pump the price like they normally do. This is what i kept thinking past 2/4 weeks. Now, i honestly don't know. Think if we close at the lows or drop even more, its most likely bad. If, hopefully, we see price go up again and safe the daily candle from becoming very bad, then maybe it was just a panic day and maybe we can leave it behind us again. Think for that, we need a close above 34.5/35, that would give me some hope that bulls are not completely scared. You know, sometimes i feel confident about a direction, sometimes i dont have my own view then i give levels for you to work with. Rarely i have no idea at all, i am very close to the last one now. Now best thing we can hope for is, that the daily close gets saved a little bit at least. Closing at the lows, think would be pretty bad. To illustrate, closing at the top grey area, would be very bullish. Closing at the one below it, would be decent, would give some hope for bulls. Closing below 34k, think its pretty weak in general. Closing around 32k, think it will be very bad. When you look back at past half year (or past years), you know i have my moments i am predicting the lows and highs, i am giving a view that eventually plays out with some delay. I sometimes am completely wrong. This time i assumed was going to be one that with some delay would probably go as i was thinking. But i am a bit scared now, i must admit that :). Because of this weird failure of the daily candle, just never seen it before (of course it's as if i have seen 20 years of charts of all the assets in the world). So, if someone has a similar candle failure, please show me in the comment section below, because i have not seen it. So in general, think bulls need to hope that today closes at a decent price. Yesterday i said the following: Was having a April 2018 feeling since yesterday, very similar, not in shape but in steps. Only big difference are alts though, then they were much stronger, now underperforming btc in this consolidation. Past 3 weeks or so was telling some people, that maybe whales are postponing shit, until after June 25th, because of the futures quarter expiration. They did that trick in as well few days after March 2019 expiration, when btc pumped above 4K and did the summer rally. Since it’s so close to the 25th, think maybe they keep it in the 38/31 range until then. Then shortly after i saw BTC pumped to above 36k even, which made me think okay, this is looking even more like April 2018 now. But todays drop, even more because of the China news, I can't be confident at this moment about the whole idea. I also have a theory on ETH chart, but for that i also need to see today's close be much better than it is now. If so, i will post about that tomorrow So for now, I would still be somewhat careful, if it was only the charts and whales, i would not have a problem with these smart money games. But because of the China news, it always makes me nervous when a big country cracks down on crypto. It's the biggest danger that always hangs above this market. Something i kept saying many times since 2017/18, but i dialed that down a bit past year because more and more countries seemed to be accepting/adopting it. But then past 2 months we have seen again, doesn't even matter who says what in what country, another part of the government can decide something else again. Maybe they are all playing games, who knows. We need to see where we are in 5/10 years from now to know for sure. So for the bulls, hope today recovers a bit. For the bears, even if this market is already in a bear market, be aware of nasty short squeezes. Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by botje11
174
Why not use the left-side trading strategyInvestment has always been diversified, many people choose to bargain, low suction and high throw; some are on the right. The method is not good or bad, but for different markets, we should choose a suitable way, rather than mechanically mechanically. Buffett is a typical left investment, many times he can hold for ten years or more, so everyone respect him as the god of shares. But that is the fundamental logic, there is the target of long-term investment value. But in the digital currency market, altcoin does not have solid fundamental support, so the left trading method may bring huge losses. I made a simple count on the weekly chart, where most altcoin s have fallen over 70%, but is that the bottom? In the last bear market, altcoin mostly fell 90%. Regardless of the time cost you need to cover, that is, there is 20% in space. If your source of money is borrowing and using leverage, how much pressure will you bear? The reason why many people can not maintain a good attitude is not that they are naturally urgent, but under the pressure, can not maintain a good attitude. Therefore, I have always suggested that you use the right trading standard, on the one hand, we can avoid the uncertain time cycle, many times, at the bottom will be sideways for a long time, even if you buy a low point, but can not make profits, that is, lose the opportunity to invest in other targets, will also let their doubts, resulting in the imbalance of mind. Summary: For the lack of consensus, lack of fundamental support, lack of institutional funds, we should adopt the right-hand trading strategy.
by peter-l
Bitcoin (BTC) • Sell pressure strong despite significant demand We failed to regain 36k. 😩 No reason to be bullish here despite the ongoing evidence of accumulation going on. Orderbooks on Coinbase and Binance certainly look very strong but so is the incoming sell pressure. This selling might be related with recent shutdown and cracking down on mining facilities in China. Hey, this is just speculation but the trend is your friend at the end of the day. Daily and Weekly Trends petty bearish at the moment but we still have a few support ranges just under us with a major one at 28k. Let's take a second look following my previous video.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by D7R
9
Bitcoin (BTC) • Are we heading to 10k?Apparently there are some people out there already calling for 10k. 👀 In this video we take a look into Volumes and data coming from Futures. Watch the full video for my general overview packed with useful information you can incorporate in your own analysis. I talk through some heuristics that can be helpful to assign odds and further develop your own thinking around these things. Remember that everything I discuss in the video is subject to random circumstances of the market. Likewise treat everything as hypothesis and probability.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by D7R
21
Why I Watch $ 20,000 —— Bitcoin from the weekly lineBitcoin rose from its 2018 low of $ 3,128, or nearly 20-fold after 122 weeks. This increase performed the best in the same cycle, among large financial markets. But a lot of people also want him to continue to perform well, so we will look from the weekly line, whether they will get it. First, the weekly macd has been running for two months after its death crossing in April and shows no signs of improvement. The average system, After falling through the ma18,currently looking for support near ma36. Readers who read my articles should know that macd + ma18 is the right-hand trading strategy I ' ve been highly advocating. You can also review and look at historical trends and what happened after macd formed a short trend and the price fell below ma18. From the right trading standards, the current operation should be a short trend. But how long this trend can go, whether it will form a long-term bear market, depends on the next rebound trend. ma18 is a very important indicator, I have written articles before, interested to check out the historical articles. If the rebound cannot break through ma18, means the next market is a bear market. The goal of the adjustment should theoretically be the early high, near $ 19,800 in 2017, and ma144 is also moving up, I believe the average is also attractive to the currency price. To sum up, if the currency price does not break through the ma18,, then the adjustment target of the weekly line level, it should be around $ 20,000. Of course, the adjustment will not be a straight line, there will be a rebound, But don't rush to enter before breaking through the ma18.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by peter-l
4
BITCOIN IN ACCUMULATION ZOOOOOOON......As i see bitcoin right now is on ACCUMULATION zoon and now we are in LPS zoon to complete the right shoulder and re-test the tringle line after we break it. What i see right now we made the bottom in 30k and now we are going to 86k-121k. Even if we break the bottom we will go to make ACCUMULATION Schematic #1 to make the 3th bottom at 28k and after that will continue rise to the targets. pbs.twimg.com res.cloudinary.com school.stockcharts.com
by BREAK-impossible
4
Bitcoin Retest completed and now Ready for $58000 ..?#BTCUSDT TA Fresh Update:- $BTC Currently Trading at $38000 This is very good support and BTC also holding a good support level. And also we can see in the chart Higher High and Higher Low in the 4H chart. And in the 4H chart after breakout big resistance $38000 Today retest level $$37000 So I am personally Bullish as per the chart. Now..? Currently, $36457 is strong support in 4H Chart. So I am buying some BTC here and SL below $35450 Targets:- $45634/$49755/$58165 Support: $36457/$33400/$30000 Resistance:- Targets Don’t forget to share your opinion.. Please click the like button and Appreciate my hard work. Must follow me for the latest crypto real-time updates. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoPatel
23
Bitcoin ABC Correction Within the ABC, Part 4Going to keep this one short, planning to write a normal analysis as well, just wanted to show this "fractal" again because even though its not identical, it does seem the the steps so far are the same. What i wrote in the previous analysis: Think, at some point, we will make another retest of the lows, was thinking that past days as well and this chart shows as well that its not far fetched to think that. The massacre was quite big past week, not likely to think the market will recover in just a few days. normally it takes more time before confidence comes back in again. Also, the people i talked about in Part 1, who just didn't want to take profits at the highs, at least acting as if it was the biggest challenge ever in their lives, are also scared and some even are completely out of it. I am quite sure, the market will pull them back in again, but assuming we will see 50k+ prices again coming months (i hope). Forgot to add, a month has passed and we had a few retests already of the lows. So could say that part might be done already, only thing lacking now is the confidence of the bulls, at least with the alt coin market Last week i posted a potential 12345 wave for BTC, which was also the case in 2018 and has been playing out so far, which gives some hope for the bulls. However, this time, the third wave weaker than 3 years ago. I know that weakness was most likely caused by the FED meeting yesterday, causing some extreme moves within minutes, which probably was not planned by anyone. Anyway, this 5 wave count, means that BTC may not cross 38kish anymore, otherwise this theory fails. Doesn't mean it will crash, but it will take another form at least. Think anything above 36kish, would still give bulls at least a chance. So not good at all to see it drop below 38k, but it's not super bearish right away. About the potential bullish move for coming weeks, as the fractal suggests, i will talk about that more in my next analysis. About what my thoughts are and the different scenario's i think are the most likely ones and what we want to see to determine which one of the scenario's will then be the more likely one. One extra thing i want to mention, 2 months ago when i warned about the bearish wedge and the big ABC correction, i mention alts would probably bleed big time and the alt market cap will probably never break the ATH again. So of course some here and there could make new highs, but i dont think that all/most of them will do it again like earlier in 2021. But what has surprised me a lot past week, is the weakness of ETH. I honestly thought that ETH would at least move between weak alts and relatively stronger BTC, but past days ETH has been one of the weakest alts out there. I just honestly can't judge, if it's whales playing games and are accumulating ETH, or that they simply want to get rid of it. This chart below shows the very clear difference, as if ETH got exchanged for BTC with some good volume. So maybe, this would be a key factor as well, that we can't really become bullish as long as we don't see ETH outperform BTC again, as we saw several times the first 4/5 months of this year. That's it for now, not sure if I have to time to make the BTC analysis today, but i will try. Previous analysis:
by botje11
16
Past Analysis of Ichimoku Setup on BTCIchimoku had a nice setup for BTC that played out nicely so far. 1. As you can see prior to entry box conversion line crossed over base line 2. Next price action broke the cloud and initially held as support 3. Lagging strand also rose above price action at the same time 4. Also cloud see the wick down into the base line get ate up 5. Price breaks down to nice cloud area which provided a setup, while conversion line held above base Don't see this price action breaking back down to this lower 31k-42k range. Expect to continue to 42k. Probably see some retracement to test some supports locally.
Long
by MycoTrade
2
Additional Description of Bitcoin AnalysisFrom the classic point of view, it is true that there are many patterns of climbing in the chart, but seeing these patterns are only a good trap for beginners and classics, so be patient for now and look for signs of shopping in the green line. The maximum pullback is $42510, then wait for it to fall. The disadvantage of this penetration analysis is $43625. At this time, this price can only be seen, it is not necessary to close Kendall. After that, new analysis and shopping points will be provided The line when it is 16June will have its effect in the next few days, you have a question, you can say in the comments
Short
by DarkAnalyzer
2
Litecoin LTC Daily Close 160/172 RangeWeek ago I posted a few times about the daily candle of LTC, showing that i was important for the bull to keep the close above 160. On the other hand, it also seemed as if bears were defending the 172 (maybe 176) daily close. So far bulls managed to hold the support and 2 days ago the 172 broke. Because BTC seems to be in a correction wave (assuming 38.5kish holds), but LTC and most other alts are much weaker still. So on the left we can see that bulls have failed to hold the 172 support, but the we still have half a day left. Even if we close below 172 doesn't mean we dump, but obviously is not good at all. Maybe the weakness past days was because of that trend line on the left, would make sense because BTC never broke the 40/42 big resistance zone, so it could be that alt buyers are still not confident to really buy if BTC doesn't really make huge steps. We should not forget, alts were mascaraed past month. I also keep hearing more often that people have been selling their bags lately because they don't feel confident about it. This sentiment, fits perfectly in a bullish version, to see people sell at the lows and then see them buy back much higher (and help the whales who are buying the lows) to push through the resistances. This part here are just assumptions of course, but for the ones who lived through 2018, know that most people are very bearish/negative/hopeless at the lows and the opposite at the highs. Anyway, the TA part. If we would see LTC hold 166/7 today (that possible channel on the right), there is still hope. Think if we break this level, would be very difficult to be bullish short term. So that is the first part bulls need to show. Second, a realistic scenario, assuming BTC won't dump but alts still remain weak, is the blue line on the left. If we would see the coming days, that LTC stays very close to that black resistance line, like 2/4 days, chances will be very big to see it eventually break and see a breakout up. So, this scenario would be the easiest one to play, I have good experiences with this setup. So bulls do not want to see a daily close below 172ish, obviously the higher it gets above the 172 the better it is. If the 176ish breaks, it's neutral to slightly bearish to me. Think a daily close below the 160ish, is probably very bad news. Think that would also mean that Bitcoin probably failed in it's attempt to break the 40/42K coming week and start to dump again. Big picture, as long as we do not see a 20/30% plus day for alts coming week or 2, even if BTC rallies, i think for alts it will be very limited. We saw these period in 2018 and 2019 as well, where BTC was doing it's thing but alts were underperforming big time and eventually everything was crashing again. So a 20/30% day has to happen at least once! Previous analysis:
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by botje11
5
Bitcoin is very likely to move meanginfully lowerI like crypto but that doesn't mean XBT isn't going lower. Probably a lot lower. Technical analysis is always a tool to help distance oneself from hope. Hope is not a predictable investment strategy. Technical analysis helps us strip away the rhetoric, the laser eyes, the maximalism, leaving us with actual behaviour upon which we apply frameworks to help us asses the probability of an up or down move. Part tealeaf reading but more analysis around distributions, exposure and risk. And with that in mind, it looks very likely that Bitcoin is going a lot lower. The following indicators suggest that might be the case: after failing to break out of the wedge, it is more likely now that we are in wave five of motive wave lower (Elliot Wave) that suggests the uptrend is now broken and we need to wait for this move lower to play out it is more likely this is a repeat of the protracted '18-19 down cycle if that is true, the next 12-15mths will likely see rangebound trading between 16,000 and 26,500 there is a possibility, should we stabilize above 33,800 (the 50% retracement), and should ATR and volatility bands have time to consolidate, that we could find a near term base if that is the case then a break through a consolidated true range resistance, and above 40,000, might suggest we are moving higher again but that is much less likely, in my opinion more likely is we break the head and shoulder support at 30,000 and end up in the previous mentioned range for the medium term Be wary of claims of institutional interest. I think Raoul Pal (who I like and respect very much), read the state of adoption wrong and it appears a lot of the recent move lower has actually been institutional puking into unmanageable volatility. Long term institutional money, rather than the faster more spivy trading flow, is going to need much much lower volatility before adoption picks up meaningfully. We are at least 12-15mths of consolidation away from that happening. In the meantime we need to be sensitive to ongoing profit taking and risk management related headwinds. This is excellent news. Not only do we want a higher base to form, but we want institutional money to have time to catch up. We want slow and steady adoption not less educated FOMO buying. We want regulators to clarify their stance, AML processes to become entrenched and pervasive and for more productive discussions around environmental impact, clearing the way for ESG investors. Also, watch Cardano and Ethereum for a break in correlation with Bitcoin. That would be huge. It would suggest, amongst other things, that we have finally arrived an important maturity milestone for Crypto; where investors recognize the meaningful differences between Bitcoin as a store of value, and a macro diversifier, and blockchain crypto (Ethereum, Cardano, Polkadot etc) that use networks and decentralized applications to wreak havoc on legacy centralized business models. That will be a very special moment. Unfortunately I don't think we are there yet.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Yearsofcharts
5
The most attractive bitcoin time analysisWow, just look at this order Aren't you going crazy? See the order in the btc movement. Every four years we have a strong uptrend. In April of last year we had a fall that many people think is over but it is not true and this has been repeated several times. The highest real price is recorded in the first week of December. April is the lunar month and December is the month of reaching the target. Now pay more attention. What fish are we in now? Do you think the bitcoin movement is over? Are you crazy?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by lmohmd966
BTCUSD ~ Breakout on low volume, market not following: 2 optionsSo this will be mostly my bearish scenario here, but I think its worth posting about. BULLISH: - We broke out of downward channel - Every single bit of FA is bullish (El Salvador + Brazil, Panama, Tanzania, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay, Kenya, etc....bitcoin = legal tender!) - Saylor is about to close his $488M debt notes at any time now (over $1.5bn of interest wanted to buy them) and 100% of that is going straight into BTC - Saylor is now selling another $1bn of stock.....100% of that is also going straight into BTC - Tesla hasnt sold a single satoshi since the 10% liquidation test back in april, and is now back in the boat "accepting bitcoin" - Bitcoin ETF has been delayed at the SEC but is inevitable at any moment - QE inflation printing is going to keep on going, says the US FED - China miners are just about out of supply to sell off BEARISH: - China miners still have some liquid to sell off - Chinese retailers are still selling more than buying as well - With bitcoin breaking up, it still hasnt broken the critical $42k levels which are lots of resistance levels (horizontal, trend, EMA's) - "Death cross" incoming on daily (historically this has a 50/50 chance of going up/down, so probably doesnt even matter, but its still coming unless we break up higher) - The rest of the crypto market is lagging after a BTC breakout....usually we see a bit more total-market-pump (TOTAL2 increases at least as much % as TOTAL) within 2-4 days.....so we still have 2 days left sortof, to see this, but I'm actually not expecting it....why? because.... - Because BTC breakout was not really that much volume. Yes it was above average volume line but just BARELY, on the largest 5-10 exchanges. I still view this as a low-volume-break-up, which means it could just go right back down. Most bearish scenario we are in is that the DAILY chart is an ASCENDING WEDGE pattern, which often breaks down. Where does an ASCENDING WEDGE pattern break down? Back to where it started. So my most bearish scenario for BTC is back to $32k. I have buy orders in from 36k down to 32k because this will be the last time we have any chance to buy BTC at sub-40k ever again. I will be longing on leverage from 32k if we do wick down there. Again - this is the bearish scenario. We very well may not be going sub-40k ever again already (not counting jitter to 39k+ until the next move). IN THE END: buying BTC at this price is still a wonderful bargain that you will not regret 6+ months from now....so watching these levels is really only an issue about trading....and that is the only reason I am watching it, because I am going to leverage my BTC and some other majors on exchange to do a medium-term long leverage trade from somewhere between 32-38k and will keep adding to it until we hit our 73-78k target in the next month or two (where I expect us to dip again, so I'll be exiting that long there, and rebuying the dip with profits).
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by ezpi
4