This is not the beginning nor the EndIn September 2020, when bitcoin was 10400 I published an analysis with a 100k price target in the next 2 years, why I changed my target and duration of the bullish rally on April 13, 2021, just one day before Coinbase IPO. and on April 29, I updated my target to 42-46k between May 10-20th.
Why did I change my target?
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1-Sep 12, 2020: Bitcoin could technically soar to 100 Thousand, what next?
2- Oct 21, 2020: Do Not Trade Bitcoin, Invest in Bitcoin for The next 2 years!
3-Apr 13: History tends to repeats itself..!
4-Apr 29: An updated target for Bitcoin
Xbt
Bitcoin Exclusive Update and Ready for $31000 or $55100...?#BTCUSDT Exclusive TA Update:-
#BITCOIN is currently trading above 200 Days Moving average near to $43000.
BTCUSDT price Still respecting and strongly the following support.
So now, what next...?
We are waiting for the daily candle close, if the daily candle closes above $44400 then This is good for Some upward move.
But if not then what next...?
If the daily candle closes below the support level then we are ready for next support 2 and Support 3.
200D EMA Support:- $42104
Support:- $44400/$39444/$31975
Resistance:- $48687/$55100
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I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin dropped to $20,000 this time If $40000 falls, I won't be shocked to see $20000 of Bitcoin this time next year.
In fact, the market has been highly speculative, even the so-called Wall Street institutions have entered, can not prove that the market is very mature. Because there is no regulation, a so-called decentralized market, is controlled by some central institutions. An inappropriate example, like a group of 21st-century, heavily armed thugs, traversed a primitive tribe that was still slash-and-burn. At this time, the original order was broken, the original rights were subverted.
Is the current direction of the development of digital money the original intention of Nakamoto? Is there a community spirit that would have challenged totalitarianism? When Bitcoin becomes a tradable commodity, its intrinsic value may have become a tool for some people to profit.
Since it is highly speculative, then the boom must have plummeted. So I think if the $60,000 head is confirmed, there should be a one-year adjustment cycle, and the decline is not an exaggeration in history.
Advice: traders should know what their purpose is.
If you are a believer, you should reflect on whether your faith can withstand the test of time. If you confirm that this is the right decision, please do not look at the market with a gambling mentality, you should stay away from secondary market transactions.
If you are a speculator, don't think about any short, you have to make a difference, your biggest risk is that the money is locked up. In a market without fundamentals, charts and indicators are the tools you can rely on, and the right side is your good friend.
Bitcoin Finally Entered in Bearish Zone so Ready for $33000..?#BTCUSDT TA Update:-
#BITCOIN currently trading at $44500
This is a bearish zone.
Yesterday broke out resistance again dumped because that was Trap.
Now..?
Now overall bearish Bitcoin in the daily time frame.
What next support..?
According to This chart Bitcoin, last support is $45100
And 300D EMA support is $46382
So I am waiting for daily close.
If the Daily candle closes above $46400 then we can think about Bullish scenarios.
Otherwise, we entered the bearish zone.
I already told you when BTCUSD broke down $59000 that time we entered the bearish zone.
But Still, last hope to hold bull zone.
Bullish scenario depends on Support 1
What if not close above support..?
If Not close above $46400 then Ready for $33176 and $26480
Not instant guys but in mid-term.
Support:- $45000/$33176/$26480
Resistance:- $59839
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Bitcoin brokeout resistance and bullish so Ready for $56000..?#BITCOIN Breakout Update:-
#BTCUSDT currently trading at $49100+
And now broke our all resistance with high Volume and Now I am bullish.
As I told you $48438 is strong resistance and if breakout then Bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
Now...?
Now 2 more new support levels:-
Support:- $48438/$47796
Resistance:- $51362/$54706/$56835
Now I am watching my Target/Resistance level.
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Bitcoin | Rising Channel & MA128 Support..!!#BTC (Update)
In 1D Chart, Bitcoin Bulls Already lost the MA50 & MA100 Support Levels But From last 3 Days, Still Bulls Defending the MA128 (49.8k) & Channel Support (49k)
In Worst Case, If Channel Broken Down & Bulls lost the MA128 Support too, Next Stop would be 30k Horizontal Support Area 📉
In Bullish Case, If Bitcoin remains Inside the Channel & Above the MA128, Expecting Higher High (68k) 📈
In Weekly Timeframe Chart, Bitcoin is Still Moving Above the Weekly EMA21 (46.6k) , EMA21 Acting As Support Since May 2020..!!
Fingers Crossed 🤞
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Bitcoin | Daily MA128 & Weekly EMA21 Both Acting As Key Support.#BTC (Update)
In daily timeframe Chart, Bitcoin is Moving Above MA128 (49812)..!!
In 2016-17 Bullrun, Daily MA128 has Played An Important Role & Now, Again It's Acting As Key Support Since MAY 2020.
In 2016-17 BullRun, Bitcoin Tested it 5-6 times & Went up from it, 📈
If Bitcoin Remains Above MA128, It'll be Good for Bitcoin & Alts as Well..If Bulls Lost the It then Bitcoin Bullrun will End Soon like 2017. 📉
In Weekly Timeframe Chart, Bitcoin is Still Moving Above the Weekly EMA21 (46.6k) , EMA21 Acting As Support Since May 2020..!!
If Weekly Candle Closed Below the EMA21, Bitcoin Might Retest the 30k Support Area. 📉
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Bitcoin Ready for $56000 in short term analysis.?#BTCUSDT LTF update:-
$Bitcoin currently trading at $49500
And the Last post about the bitcoin I told you we can see Retest at $49800
Now done.
Now...?
After Retest we can see an upward moment from here.
But..?
$48942 is good support and Retest 2.
So this is also good and last hope for the bull scenario.
Don't panic above $48500
Support:- $49700/$48600
Resistance:- $51362/$54704/$56835
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Bitcoin ABC Correction Within the ABC, Part 2A follow up on the previous analysis and the updates i did since. I showed a small bearish wedge (yellow triangle on the right) a few days ago, which was forming inside of the bigger one (black lines on the right). Since last week i kept saying that the key zone for the bulls to break is 60kish, where resistance would start from the 58k zone as talked about in the previous analysis. Yesterday the small yellow wedge broke and i gave the 55k and 53k as support zones. After it seemed that bulls were holding it, and a retest of the wedge was becoming more likely, the basic resistance of the retest was 56/56.5, but as i mentioned yesterday, knowing the fomo in the market, it could even do an extended retest up to 58Kish.
Today i updated the support zone a bit, because things change while price moves. Where i had the 55 and 53 as support zones, which of course still have some value, now it looks as if that thick red line below might be a more important one short term, which is moving around 54K. I also mentioned, that the range is probably 58K and this 54K, with 56/55.6k being the middle line between the two. While writing this, this middle line seems to be breaking, at least getting tested. Not really dropping through it yet, so maybe i am wrong about this short term level, but could still happen.
The chart here below, we can see very similar movements. Where we had a big high and a big drop afterwards, then creating like a very ugly inverse H&S with very extended retests of the neckline. The on the left, we can see, that it eventually rallies. While this time, at a similar spot, it simply fails to break up, finding a lot of resistance. So one thing which is not in favour of the bulls.
Then the things i talked about in my previous analysis, the big ABC correction, also still in full play. The B wave, started as my number 1 scenario, but eventually turning into the number 2, which you can still see below. Number 2 showing a more sideways, channel like movement. It's not a great channel, but at least something to look at as well.
The chart above, primary chart, the big triangle on the left. Is another realistic scenario as well. Which would mean, that even if we drop coming week or so, as long as 50/51k holds, chance will still be there that all of this might turn into a big triangle. As you can also in that same (weekly) chart, a weekly close above 62K (in theory 60K, but think would be too tight), would/should be a big win for the bulls. Here and there i still hear some people about the bear market has started already, but i think that is wayyyyyyy to premature to say that. As long as we do not see a big fast dump, within days, through the 30/28K zone, i so no reason (except guessing) to say that the bull trend has ended already. The market is still in super hype mode, people are still bringing in their money. So even if this market would be one big joke, even if whales are trying to cash out at these highs. As long as they can see that money is pooring in at these highs, they will continue to let that money come to them instead of dumping the price.
My big picture, even if my big ABC plays out, meaning a potential drop towards 30/40K, i still think there is a good chance that we might still see another rally for Bitcoin later this year. I don't dare to say that for alts, because there is way too much garbage (once again) floating around in this market. The exit scams will increase again, the crap/worthless coins are increasing again. So this will, just like the ICO market did in 2018, damage the confidence in this market. Why i think that the Alt market, won't simply make another big rally after a big drop (assuming it will happen). The other day i saw that we 9500 coins/tokens, while in 2018 i think we had around 1500. So do the math about how much shit is out there now. Just unbelievable how people simply put there money in this crap. Funny, how the most inexperienced people i meet in real life, who never traded, just started for a month or so, are only talking about the most hyped coins that are worth complete nothing.
So short term, think 54K is an important level, then second i think 51kish a support level as well. On the upside, 58k is the resistance now, above that the 60K zone. But as i described past week or so, even if the 60K breaks, there is still a chance for a failed break out. So think we really do need to see 62/63K break as well.
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Previous analysis:
BTCUSD ~ Next target 73k and then ????So as we have said since March (first post march 25th on BTC, and 4 more since then) - we have been waiting for and expecting a big correction back to a few key critical things:
1) BTC has been way over-extended (all the cryptos have), and desperately needs a retouch of supports.
2) BTC desperately needs to retouch the 10W and preferably also 20W MA's. CHECK-DONE
3) BTC needs to retouch previous FIB support level and re-accumulate, shake out weak hands. CHECK-DONE
All goals we have been waiting for since March have now been accomplished. Feel free to see my posts since March - press play - and watch how perfectly we landed on almost exact dollar levels of what we plotted earlier.
SO - WHAT NOW?
What we expect to happen now is a re-accumulation period between 2 and 10 days roughly (this is a wide variable, and in fact, the longer we accumulate, the better - so I would even prefer 14 to 19 days as our previous dip accumulation periods were 11 and 19 days respectively).
After that is done, we will be heading back up to break the FIB extension level we topped at, retest that level as support (S/R flip confirmation needed at that point), after which we'll be heading to the next FIB extension level which is the 423.6% mark and the last extension level typically used --- yes boys and girls we are just about to actually break the LAST standard TA extension level at 73k! This is a HUGE moment because after we break that and S/R flip it - we are literally in PRICE DISCOVERY MODE for BTC until the end of the bull market.
ANYBODY telling you they know where its going after that, DOESNT ACTUALLY KNOW - and we are all just using different metrics to try and guess it.
What I *AM* 99% certain of (because 100% is ofc impossible) - is that we will break it.
What happens after that, nobody knows.
My PERSONAL BULL CYCLE PLAN:
I highly do suspect that we will break $73k relatively soon (within next ~20 days), and that means we still have a long time left in this bull run, so theres no reason for that to be the bull run top.
I will not be taking profits at 73k, because right now we look so bullish with so much "Big Money" momentum that I think we could easily just blow past it into price discovery and reach for $100k area.
I have no expectations that $73k will be our bull run top. My personal take-profit levels are around $100k, $120k, and $140k --- I believe we will be hitting $150k before end of year, as my conservative / take-profit plan.
Being a business owner and connected to other big money CEOs and investors - the buzz is so huge right now however that I would not be surprised if we hit $250k or $350k which are numbers I am constantly hearing from major CEOs, partners at multi-$bn firms, etc....
I only take-profit off 20% of my cryptos anyway (MAXIMUM 30%, if we do end up going that high, I'd sell another 10%) - so I dont really care if we go to $1m....I am still going to be HODLing 70-80% of all my cryptos.
In the run up to the cycle, I have converted my personal financial life all into crypto - I hold about 1% in fiat for utility and 99% in crypto for all my liquid assets at this time, and this is a permanent shift for me, for the rest of my life.
So there is simply no reason to be selling the large majority of crypto. I am not a trader. I am an investor and have shifted into crypto being my 1) store of value, 2) currency, and 3) asset investment class.
Eventually I will even get rid of the 1% fiat accounts I hold at traditional banks, as I see no reason to keep them when eventually crypto and crypto-credit-cards are just as mainstream as dollar bills.
We're not quite there yet, but we will be soon!
My MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate:
If - for some reason - we sit where we are between 45k-65k and accumulate for 2-3 months, and then take another month to break the 73k 423.6% extension, putting us into something like september/october - that could, at worst, be the top of the bull market cycle this time.
This is such a conservative estimate that I am not even going to be taking profits at this point, UNLESS we have indeed NOT broken the previous ATH (~64k) a whole 30-days from now.
Let me repeat that for clarity: IF we still have not broken previous ATH (~64k) 30 days from now (~June 15th) then I will consider this super conservative estimate and re-evaluate where I put my take profits.
Not planning on doing another BTCUSD post until we see one of the above triggers happen.....so however long that takes.....5 days....30 days....see you guys at 73k soon!
Take care and BUY THE DIP!
Bitcoin Price Action Outlook 13 May 2021Bitcoin price surged a little bit from 60k , now heading towards sweet buy spot and we are able to get good prices for long entries. More details covered on the chart.
Please make sure you know how to manage risk and position size.
On the chart main focus on Daily Moving Averages (DMA) with length 100 and 200. This DMAs making good support zone for trend movements and pretty solid for buying during the trends.
Current price fluctuated below DMA100 and above DMA200, which on my opinion is pretty good spot for buying.
BR,
Artem Shevelev
Bitcoin | Once Again Bulls Looking Strong..!!#BTC (Update)
From last 3 Months, Bitcoin Has been Moving in 44k - 62k Range.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Printing Strong Bullish Divergence.
Lower Bollinger Band tested Again. (Double Bottom)
At the Moment, Bulls looking Strong & Expecting Bullish Wave towards 60k 📈
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Bitcoin Ready for next move Up or Down..?#BTCUSDT TA update:-
$BITCOIN currently trading above $50000
And as I drawn my chart this is retest level at $47000 has been done.
Now I am expecting bounce back from here.
Entry:- $47000-$50000 ( spot )
Targets:- $55500/$59393/$65000
Stop Loss:- below $45000 and I will update here.
Support:- $47000/$41000
Resistance:- $55500/$59393/$65000
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Bitcoin Below Daily Red LineAs described by @RafaelZioni, the Red Line is an indicator that is a:
"simple script that give easy indication on the state of your asset
above the red line is bullish
below is bearish
the line is based on modify level of regular pivot S3 without the MTF function"
Bitcoin is now below the Red Line on the daily chart and falling into bearish territory.
Could this be the start of bear market? Targets would be horizontal portions of past Red Line areas.
If the Fed Raises Interest Rates, Where Will Bitcoin Go?
A 15-fold increase in 57 weeks isn't the biggest rally in bitcoin history, but it's a standout compared to the surrounding markets. US stocks tumbled and the US dollar rebounded yesterday after the release of higher than expected CPI figures, intensifying expectations for US interest rate hikes. But the digital currency market seems to be stable, but the Federal Reserve really raised interest rates, digital currency will be so calm?
When Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin, which is 14 years old, he hoped it would become an anti-inflation tool. But for the first 10 years, Bitcoin was more of a token for dark web transactions, which was certainly not acceptable to the government.
As Bitcoin's influence grew, in 2017 the Chicago Board of Trade launched a bitcoin futures contract, which opened the door to bitcoin trading as a commodity. But that has not given him much relevance to the dollar.
Until the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019, the United States responded to the economic collapse by printing a lot of money. The flood of dollars was like a hungry Wolf, looking for prey everywhere. At the same time, Wall Street tycoons have found a cheap digital currency (Bitcoin dropped to $4,000 in early 2020, with a total market capitalization of less than $100 billion). Bitcoin is much easier to manipulate than gold, and most importantly, it is unregulated and completely anonymous.
Thus, Wall Street's script for the Bitcoin myth has officially arrived. From Grayscale and MicroStrategy to Bakkt, a spot exchange was launched. From "insiders" constantly touting Bitcoin as the best alternative to the dollar, to the advent of digital gold; Institutions from Fidelity to Morgan Stanley to Citigroup rushed into the Canadian ETF listing; From Coinbase landing on Nasdaq to Musk hyping Doge. Bitcoin has soared from $4,000 at the beginning of 2020 to an all-time high of $60,000.
We've seen a complete crushing of commodities over the same period, with gold taking the lead. If inflation-fighting logic has been Bitcoin's talisman, does a rise in the dollar mean the currency is set to peak? Does the prediction that bitcoin should hit $100,000 or even $400,000 by the end of the year fail if the so-called trajectory of bitcoin follows?
This is a paradox for Bitcoin.
First of all, the current investment subject, from retail investors in Asia, is converted to a Wall Street tycoons, so their money, should be on the water come from the federal reserve this time, if the dollar interest rates, this part of the money back, whether to mean that they are not out of bullets, then the currency by faith to shore up their selling?
Second, as the preferred trading tool of the dark web, digital currency has never ceased to be controversial since its birth. Recently, the US pipeline company was extorted. In this case, digital currency has been pushed into the storm again.
Third, in the face of the rise of tens of times, hundreds of times the digital currency bulls firm faith, or cash out? If the dominoes fall, who can save the day? If the U.S. economy does fail, can digital currencies dodge the bullet?
If bitcoin is the inflation-fighting digital gold, then higher dollar rates mean bitcoin should fall. If it doesn't fall, it means there's no correlation between bitcoin and the dollar, and the institutional logic has been falsified, and the market could return to the days of retail investors.
Bitcoin long-term outlook -> 20-22k (?) -> 500k in Q3 2023This rally has been very confusing to say the least, but in retrospect everything makes sense. Cycle lengthening is back on the table. This is not a cycle top and a proper bull run will come later.
Next time to load up is by the end of this year 2021.