Xbt
Human Psychology Never Changes. Impossible right?
The one thing i love about market cycles & historic charts is that you can pull up charts from 1900s and 2000s and you see the same fear & greed patterns forming.
Always the greed forming from strong positions and fear from weak positions.
All I see online is
"bearish" "stock collapse"
"housing collapse"
"Bitcoin collapse (10K) (lol)"
"Student debt crisis"
When in reality,
1.Liquidity in the trillions is on the sideline.
2.FRED has paused rate hikes (as I expected they cannot afford the debt)
3.Inflation (for now) has been cut off
4.QE / YCC is almost needed to control bond yields + stimulate GDP growth to avoid mass unemployment
5.Bitcoin is a few months away from a Spot ETF approval.
This has to be the most bullish setup I have actually ever seen for high growth assets, timing on the other hand. . you can clearly see mature assets go longer in the period of "depression".
THE only option for the FRED is to start QE to drop the DXY bailing out Japan that's buying their bonds (JPY currently collapsing).
Now the main question is the future is looking like the FRED will slowly drop rates "SLOWLY" meaning realestate is going to become a dead market it won't collapse but its growth is now capped.
Meaning all this stuck capital $47 trillion in US real estate alone is dead money.
The FRED will make the choice to allow risk assets and stocks to fly, capping the real-estate growth cutting off inflation from the "housing side".
People are going to wake up one day towards the end of 2023 with a Bitcoin price at $90,000 on CNBC and that's then the real FOMO is going to kick in.
Only thing bears have going for them is China invading Taiwan leading to an all out NATO / EUASIA conflict, lets see how this year ends.
youtu.be
BTCUSDT Chart Analysis: Short-Term Bearish Trend with Buying OppIntroduction
In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, keeping a close eye on charts and trends is crucial. At the moment, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at the $26,500 level, and a careful analysis of the charts suggests a short-term bearish trend. Let's delve into the details and identify some key levels to watch for potential trading opportunities.
Neckline Support Broken
One of the notable signals on the chart is the break of the neckline support. This is a bearish sign indicating that Bitcoin's short-term trajectory may be downward.
Strong Support at $25,000
Currently, there's a stronghold of support at the $25,000 level. If this support level holds, it might help stabilize the price. However, should it break down, there's a significant risk of witnessing a substantial drop in BTC value, potentially down to the $20,000 level.
Resistance Levels
To gauge possible upward movements, we need to consider resistance levels. Two crucial levels to monitor are $27,300 and $30,750. If Bitcoin successfully breaks above $27,300, it could aim for a retest of the $30,000 level.
Short-Term Bullish Above $31,000
For traders seeking bullish signs, keep in mind that Bitcoin may only be considered bullish if it manages to climb above the $31,000 mark. Below this level, there's a high probability of revisiting the $20,000 level.
Long-Term Perspective
For those with a long-term perspective, remember that significant dips can present excellent buying opportunities. The next two years are expected to bring substantial developments for Bitcoin holders, making it a potentially rewarding investment for patient investors.
Conclusion
In summary, the current chart analysis for BTCUSDT suggests a short-term bearish trend, with the neckline support already broken. Key levels to watch include $25,000 as strong support and $27,300 and $30,750 as resistance levels. Bitcoin is likely to turn bullish only if it surpasses $31,000. Short-term traders should exercise caution, while long-term holders can view dips as potential buying opportunities.
BTCUSD Logarithmic Growth Trend: 155k Max By Mid 2025 Hello all!
It has been awhile since i posted, for good reason! It has been a very boring time within the market (as expected).
We are currently in this transition phase between bear to bull market, its the time where everyone walks away filled with fear (bottom of cycle)
Save this chart... You'll never look at a "BTC" rainbow chart again. This either works or it doesn't.
BTC has followed very distinct cycles since its inception
These cycles have been dictated by each halving (as shown)
When looked at on a logarithmic chart, two indisputable lines can be drawn (tops and bottoms), there are no other ways to draw these lines and each top and bottom has perfectly touched them
This creates a logarithmic curved growth area where BTCs priced has always stayed between
Using this model, BTC should top out around 155k in mid 2025 & in the bear market that follows, it shouldn't break below 70k.
We will continue to reference this going forward but main takeaway, the macro picture is still perfectly in tact and BTC is moving as it should, with room to move down to 20k
This is the time to build and GET READY for what's to come
Don't lose sight, the green grass looks to be right around the corner!
Please comment and like!
Majority Right Or Majority Wrong? OCT-MARCH Parabolic Bull Run?
Credit PlanB on Twitter his polls have always been a great indicator based on
"hive mind thinking"
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19,088 votes
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Bull after halving, again 59.6%
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No 2024/2025 bull market 17.5%
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I don't know 22.9%
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So this means there's an even higher probability for a new smaller
bull cycle PRE halving OCT-MARCH.
Followed by the smaller portion agreeing No 2024/2025 bull market Meaning there will be another bull market towards the end of 2024 going into 2025.
I state this on the chart with 1. 1. then 2. 2.
Logically for the "market" to catch most of guard would require a rapid move very soon that could be a Spot ETF approval Bitcoin gains a few trillion in market cap and then remains stagnant for the rest of 2024.
Followed by another accelerated growth in 2025-2026.
As we can see almost always "Retail" is behind the curve and always wrong when it comes to financial markets as they use emotion over logic with anything.
I don't "day trade" I don't recommend it, I hold sound assets and growing sectors.
But we monitor the sentiment as if something like this does rapidly unfold there will the chance to rebalance after the "Spot ETF allocation hype slows down"
Anybody who has any sentiment polls or DATA similar to this feel free to comment so far Twitter is the only source to monitor retail hive thinking. . .
TVC:DXY/FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
Takes the DXY with the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield telling us we are at a tipping point in the DXY so DXY fall? > Rates possibly fall? > Liquidity up?
Bitcoin: A Fib based view on next Bitcoin SupportAs you can see from the chart, the next Fib level 0.5 is at the range of 23600, so we can expect the Bitcoin to consolidate at this range in September,
Historically September month ended negatively for Bitcoin most of the time. So it's hard to expect a positive candle close for bitcoin this September.
Based on what I see we can expect further negative movement for bitcoin upto 23600 range and price consolidation at this range, this move can be very quick as we can psychological resistance at 25000, if 25K breaks then we can expect bitcoin to reach 23K range very quickly.
I would advise again any long term LONG position for bitcoin at this moment unless we see some serious stable price movement upto 27K.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Bitcoin 2020 vs 2023 , just a comparisonA looks 2020 and 2023 bitcoin chart on weekly candle.
Trend looks similar, however bears are stronger this time compared to 2020,
in 2020 we had similar patter but that we after continuous upward momentum and this pattern emerged after that, but this time it is after continuous downtrend from 60K.
Changes are having another correction is higher but let's wait and see.
PS: This is just an outlook on comparing the current pattern with 2020, this is not a trading advice, take it pinch of salt. :)
Cheers
BTC Analysis: Patterns, Levels, and Potential BreakoutsBTCUSDT Daily Chart Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Introduction:
In this analysis, we'll delve into the current state of BTCUSDT using the daily chart and identify key support and resistance levels. We'll also discuss the potential implications of the Head & Shoulder pattern and its possible outcome. Traders and enthusiasts alike can benefit from understanding these critical levels to make informed decisions.
Current Price and Overview:
BTCUSDT is currently trading at $29,400, showing a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments. Understanding the significant support and resistance levels is crucial for gauging potential price movements.
Major Resistance Levels:
The chart indicates that a substantial resistance zone lies between $30,500 and $31,000. This area has historically proven to be a challenging zone for BTC to break through. A successful breach above this range might lead to a significant upward movement.
Major Support Levels:
The support area between $27,500 and $27,800 is crucial. If BTC fails to maintain its price above this range, it might indicate a bearish sentiment taking over. A breach below this level could trigger a further downward move.
Head & Shoulder Pattern Analysis:
There is a prominent Head & Shoulder pattern visible on the chart. If the price breaks below the $27,500 support level, this pattern suggests a potential target of $20,000. However, this outcome is not guaranteed, as other factors and market sentiment can influence price movements.
Potential Price Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: If the support at $27,500 breaks, BTC could target the $20,000 level based on the Head & Shoulder pattern.
Bullish Scenario: A bounce from the $27,500 support level could lead to an upward movement. In this case, the price might attempt to challenge the resistance levels mentioned earlier.
Pattern Invalidation and Upside Potential:
It's important to keep a close watch on how the price behaves around the $31,000 resistance level. If the price successfully breaks above $31,000, the validity of the Head & Shoulder pattern might be questioned. Such a breakout could propel BTC to the range of $34,000 to $35,000, indicating potential bullish momentum.
$133T Decaying Bond Marketcap - 0.5T Bitcoin Marketcap EarthBond
Its fun to compare bitcoin with Gold as a commodity for the similar attributes but Gold only has a small market cap of 12.928T and is very illiquid.
Yes Golds market cap is nowhere near the market cap of Government Bonds.
We have a global CPI / inflation problem where "smart money" is getting anti Bonds due to the rising debt and interest rates that eventually make the returns useless if adjusted.
Lets do the calculations bitcoin superior to Gold and superior to the government bonds creating a decentralized Earth Bond, yes bitcoin to my eyes is like gold but will eventually function like a bond that is tied to the earth and connection to every sovereign country.
Planet Bond.
BlackRock Suggests an optimal BTC allocation is 84.9% completely changing the 60-40 basic portfolio of bonds.
twitter.com
Lets have some fun with the calculations
Illiquid bitcoin supply at 15.2M
twitter.com
19.5 million (Today Supply) minus 15.2 million equals 4.3 million on the market of course this will increase if prices go up but there's also the chance they do not as most accumulation here is by large funds not retail looking for short term returns.
5% of 133 trillion (133T) is 6.65 trillion.
If bitcoin had a market cap of $6.5T, 1 BTC would be worth $1.5M, an upside of 46x
(based on the supply is way less than people understand)
All that's left is a Spot ETF on the US market to allow capital to just lightly tap this market and we will know soon enough.
And people wonder why every large fund have raced to get a spot bitcoin ETF, yeah being potentially the most important asset in the last 100 years could do it.
Tick Tock
impulse finished on BTC?We've marked up on btc for a while and have now settled in a momentum shift. Five waves may have signaled the end of a trend
LINK - Wyckoff Accumulation + Elliott WavesLink has been stuck in this range for an awful long time. In this count, it is labelled as a diagonal 5th + corrective wave 4; which could explain why we've been in this range for so long.
Looking for a pullback to test bottom support to take out range highs.
could you handle this savage potential 1:1ive been aiming for 36k as a final target since the start of this mini run in January.
this recent PA has been a bit meh, with buy interest coming down at a point where i believe some players have loaded a lot of sells teasing everyone for the 32/33k liquidity.
as this local mini range is just an sfp of Aprils high and price drop would be considered internal structure all the way down to the swing low
...so, could you handle this savage potential 1:1 before #bitcoin tanks to lows and forming a bottom?
Invalidation would be a weekly close above Aprils high, or just cutting through 20k like butter,
BTCUSDT 4H Chart AnalysisBTCUSDT 4H Chart Analysis
Overview:
Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing range-bound trading for the past 18 days, with traders eagerly awaiting a breakout from this consolidation phase. In this report, we analyze the key levels and targets to watch for potential breakout opportunities.
Breakout Targets:
Upward Target after breakout: $38,000
Downside Target after breakdown: $27,000
Breakout Areas:
Upward Breakout Point: $31,250
Downside Breakout Point: $29,800
Technical Analysis:
BTC has been consolidating within a range, indicating indecision among market participants.
The upward breakout point at $31,250 represents a significant resistance level that needs to be surpassed for a bullish breakout to occur.
Conversely, the downside breakout point at $29,800 acts as a crucial support level that, if breached, could trigger a bearish breakdown.
Implications:
A successful upward breakout could lead BTC towards the upward target of $38,000, providing potential profit opportunities for traders.
Conversely, a downside breakdown below the $29,800 level may push BTC towards the downside target of $27,000, offering opportunities for bearish positions.
Risk Management:
It is important to note that breakouts can be accompanied by increased volatility and sudden price movements. Traders should implement proper risk management strategies to protect their capital.
Consider setting stop-loss orders and closely monitoring the price action during the breakout phase.
BTCUSDT 4H Chart AnalysisBTCUSDT 4H Chart Analysis
Overview:
Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing range-bound trading for the past 18 days, with traders eagerly awaiting a breakout from this consolidation phase. In this report, we analyze the key levels and targets to watch for potential breakout opportunities.
Breakout Targets:
Upward Target after breakout: $38,000
Downside Target after breakdown: $27,000
Breakout Areas:
Upward Breakout Point: $31,250
Downside Breakout Point: $29,800
Technical Analysis:
BTC has been consolidating within a range, indicating indecision among market participants.
The upward breakout point at $31,250 represents a significant resistance level that needs to be surpassed for a bullish breakout to occur.
Conversely, the downside breakout point at $29,800 acts as a crucial support level that, if breached, could trigger a bearish breakdown.
Implications:
A successful upward breakout could lead BTC towards the upward target of $38,000, providing potential profit opportunities for traders.
Conversely, a downside breakdown below the $29,800 level may push BTC towards the downside target of $27,000, offering opportunities for bearish positions.
Risk Management:
It is important to note that breakouts can be accompanied by increased volatility and sudden price movements. Traders should implement proper risk management strategies to protect their capital.
Consider setting stop-loss orders and closely monitoring the price action during the breakout phase.
#BTC/USDT 4h (ByBit) Head and Shoulders near breakdownBitcoin could retrace down to 100EMA support after a last liquidity grab towards right shoulder.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (13.2X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
30223.7
Entry Targets:
1) 30553.4
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 28712.5
Stop Targets:
1) 31476.1
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTCUSDT #Bitcoin #XBT #PoW
Risk/Reward= 1:2
Expected Profit= +79.5%
Possible Loss= -39.9%
Estimated Gaintime= 5-10 days
bitcoin.org
Bitcoin LTF Technical AnalysisBitcoin LTF Overview
Overview:
Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of $30,000 to $31,200, with the chart indicating a focus within this range. A bull flag formation is observed in the 4-hour time frame, suggesting the potential for an upward breakout towards $36,000. However, it is important to consider a bearish scenario where Bitcoin breaks down below $30,000 and retests the $27,200 level.
Key Levels:
Support: $30,000
Resistance: $31,200
Trade Analysis:
Upside Breakout: If Bitcoin breaks above the $31,200 level, it may indicate a bullish continuation. In this case, the potential target would be around $36,000.
Downside Breakout: Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks below the $30,000 level, it could signify a bearish move. The next support level to watch would be around $27,200.
Please note that these levels are provided as general guidelines and should be evaluated in conjunction with other technical indicators, market sentiment, and risk management strategies.
CryptoPatel Recommendations:
Monitor Breakout: Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price movement within the defined range and be prepared to act upon a breakout.
Risk Management: Implement appropriate risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders or using trailing stops, to protect capital and limit potential losses.
Confirmation: Consider waiting for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown through additional technical indicators or chart patterns before entering a trade.
Stay Informed: Continuously follow market updates, news, and changes in market sentiment to stay informed about potential developments that may impact Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin Range bound in Lower Time FrameBitcoin LTF Overview
Current Range: $30K-$31.2K
Chart Indicates Focus Within This Range: The chart shows that Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of $30K-$31.2K. There is a lot of price action within this range, which suggests that traders are focused on this area.
Trade on Breakout: Traders should look to trade on a breakout of this range. If Bitcoin breaks above $31.2K, it could signal the start of a new uptrend. If Bitcoin breaks below $30K, it could signal the start of a new downtrend.
Key Levels:
Support: $30K
Resistance: $31.2K
Overall Outlook: The overall outlook for Bitcoin is neutral. The chart suggests that traders are focused on the current range, and there is no clear indication of which way the price will break. Traders should wait for a breakout before making any trading decisions.
how will Bitcoin unfold in the future?This wave of market should be said to be a very typical war example. It took the bulls 2 months to create a bear trap, and finally the Jedi counterattacked, crushing the bears' defense in one fell swoop.
Some say it was a collusion between the SEC and Wall Street, and some even say Gary made a lot of money shorting Bitcoin. But these may not be confirmed, but from the technical trend review, we can still find a basis.
The correction that began in April has been a sudden setback, with one wave of lows being lower than the next. It looks as if the bulls are losing out. But the system's new features played a huge role this time. In order to cheat the line, the bulls caused MA144 to lose and the bottom neck line of the head and shoulders was worn through the illusion. But we can clearly see with the chart pattern hint function that this is a standard descending wedge trend, and finally stops falling at the wedge support line.
We all know that in some key support technologies, there is a false breakthrough standard of the deceptive line, generally no more than 3%. So this time, the main force of the bulls is familiar with it, and the dark position of the plank road is Chen Cang, and finally the goal of killing the bears is achieved.
A 20% increase in a week, although not much compared to a bull market, is still a good morale boost after a 2-month downturn. After all, global financial markets have rebounded recently, India, Japan have even come out of the big bull market, and even the Nasdaq has soared under the leadership of NVIDIA. The cryptocurrency circle has been plagued by the SEC suing Binance and Coinbase incidents, altcoin bulls fell apart, and the market wailed.
And the current long white candlestick at least keeps everyone hopeful.
But the market is not a welfare home, and trading is never charity. So we can't judge the market trend with emotion.
At the beginning of this rally, I made a judgment on the nature of the rebound, from the peak of $70,000, the market entered a bear market, theoretically, will use the ABC trend to complete the bear market correction (red line in the figure). This can be found in 2018-2019. Although history is not simply repeated, in a market that lacks fundamental support, chart movements are the basis for most investors' reference.
The adjustment of the 12-month history of 2021-2022 should be wave A, and then the rebound that opened is theoretically wave B, which should currently run in the third stage of wave B.
I thought this rebound was also the trend of ABC (gold line in the chart), and I thought that the high of the rally should not exceed $42200, where the golden section is 0.5. Of course, there are other technical indicators out there that form a suppression.
At present, from November last year to April this year, there is a clear 5 waves rising (purple line in the figure), followed by a 2-month correction, also 5 waves (blue line in the figure), I remember Elliott's wave theory for the definition of the rebound ABC trend, there is one, that is, if A is a complex wave, C may be a simple wave. So I judge that the trend of this C may be the ABC structure (123 of the dashed line standard in the figure).
Then there was a big C wave of decline.
This judgment is based on the following logic
1. Fundamentals, the SEC's lawsuit against Binance is actually an extension of the previous FTX incident, and the central issue is security. Whether altcoins are tokens or securities is also a question they need to solve. These questions are always the sword of Damox hanging over the head of the coin.
When we look at the end of the first two bear markets, they are also inextricably linked to fundamentals.
2015 was the beginning of the booming blockchain boom in China, with the emergence of blockchain companies, the issuance of coins, and the listing of exchanges became the norm, and Chinese exchanges monopolized more than 70% of the world's trading volume. It wasn't until 2018 that China began to drive away digital exchanges and the Bitcoin bull market ended.
In 2019, it was the issuance of US Bitcoin ETF contracts, and mainstream institutions entered the currency circle, taking over Chinese capital and becoming new Bitcoin players. And in March 2022, the Fed entered a rate hike cycle that became the end of a bull market, and Bitcoin once again entered a bear market cycle.
So in the next bull market, there should be a fundamental change, either the SEC will give a compromise plan for the legalization of the currency circle, or new capital will enter. In conclusion, it is difficult to judge the end of a bear market without these changes.
2. Technical, compared with the three bull and bear markets after 2011, although the time of each adjustment is about 12 months, the first two declines were 87% and 84%, and this time it was only 77%, which is slightly insufficient. The bear market in 2019 uses the ABC trend, although the latter wave of C has not reached a new low, but the amplitude is still large.
Based on the above analysis, I believe that it should be in the late stage of the big B wave rebound, if it cannot break through the golden section of $42,200 at 0.5, it is not ruled out to copy the trend of 2019 and fall again.
Bitcoin update 28.03.2023Potentially we can reach liquidity zones from below to eliminate all stop losses of long trades that were opened in the yellow zone, after that a strong upward movement is possible. The vision is the same, in May - April we will see the local peak of this movement
Technically, the market is doing very well.
We trade the market
60% + of all money in stable coins
Beware of overbought altcoins
LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) the trend continues.
Don't forget to control your greed, Protect your positions. Think are you over risked
People write to me who are in an unstable psychological state from the fact that they missed most of the movements, there will still be opportunities. Contact a more experienced person.
Plan your trades, trade your plans
Best regrads EXCAVO
Critical Analysis: #Bitcoin's Rollercoaster Ride to $25,700Bitcoin Technical Analysis:
Current Price: $25,700
According to my analysis, Bitcoin recently broke down from a Head & Shoulder pattern and is currently trading at $25,700, with a low around $25,000.
After breaking the Neck Line support, Bitcoin experienced a trap and the price briefly went up to $28,000, resulting in the liquidation of high leverage trades.
Based on the current market conditions, I anticipate the next move for Bitcoin to be towards the support level at $24,000. This level also serves as a retest after the breakout of the resistance.
In the worst-case scenario, if Bitcoin breaks down the $24,000 support, it could potentially test the range of $19,000 to $21,000. This could present accumulation opportunities for traders and investors.
Key Levels provided by CryptoPatel:
Support: $24,000 / $21,300 / $19,000
Resistance: $27,500 / $30,500 / $40,000
Please note that the analysis provided above is my own interpretation and should not be considered as financial advice. It is essential to conduct your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
Remember to approach the market in a systematic and disciplined manner, considering factors such as risk management, market trends, and your personal financial situation.
Follow us for More Real time Quality Chart Analysis.
Thank you.
$Bitcoin cup & hanlde bottoming patternBITSTAMP:BTCUSD is showing a bullish divergence with its ROC.
This may indicate a bullish move toward the $30,000 resistance level.
Inside the cup, there is a low cheat pattern with pivot at $28,500 which could be a good first entry.
Still, the crypto space hasn't been showing much strength relative to the the stock market. So why own it?
At least not for now.
I'll wait for the price to be above $30,000.
bearish head & shoulder completed!As you can see, a bearish head and shoulder pattern has been formed. The main support is also lost. With a pullback up, the main dump begins.
