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Xbteur

Want to risk 1 to make 50?After a long boring choppy market the price is moving, and this may be the time to hop in, we get a discount on the price. You may also want to wait for the price to bottom. We can buy a bit as the price goes does, then a bit more as it bottoms, then a bit more as it goes up, then a bit more on the next pullback... I can't tell if it bottoms or bounces directly, my best guess would be after this long up and down the weak hands got scared and some of the gamblers lost interest (not going fast enough) so they'll be more selling at the bottom holding the price back + not as many bottom chasers ==> Will have to wait for the last weak hands to sell at the bottom before the price rallies. The price would have to go below 30k to start considering a potential bear market. These countertrend bears are really ridiculous.
Long
by MrRenev
8
High of the Quarter?📌 ridethepig | BTC High of the Quarter? A short iteration update here after the wild moves cleared the board and left a lot of confusion behind. The beauty of abstracting to volatility trading, or elasticity trading or trend following is that you take all of the noise in the inner waves out, and just trade time and probabilities . Well done all those who are already short from above and managed to book some profits on the test of 46,000. For those looking to add back to positions or jump in then all we need to do is trade in our window and capture the overlap. A daily closing below our $55/54,000 pivot is contentious and shows buyers are exhausting . A pullback towards the 42,000 Tesla breakout looks in imminent , before we can ultimately gather enough energy for another slingshot. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
31
ridethepig | Variation of Flow & Profit Taking📌 ridethepig | Variation of Flow & Profit Taking When in the much disputed variation of covering partial longs, we can look for some shorts to play the pullback towards +/- 48,000 of an incomplete (iv) in a 5-wave sequence. This point of view is based on a complete and understood notion in the concept of an underlying impulsive nature to the move. For this, we need to simply stick to the fib itself: the 261.8% has been our impulse target, so we need to track for signs of a turn which is the current situation at the top of our map. This is important and should be used as an area to do some profit taking/covering under any circumstances for those holding from way below. The significance of resistance here in a situation where we are at approximately 60% bull market in the macro chart is a (3) wave temp high inside a (5) wave sequence. As well as creating energy for another slingshot later in the year, it is intimately linked to the manoeuvre handled by sharp sellers outguessing a temp high. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
21
ridethepig | The Capitulation📌 ridethepig | The Capitulation Very little to update after a quiet European and NY play. Buyers are clearly in the superior position, as you all know, just a matter of time before we get the capitulation let now. A very quick leg towards $57,000 is in play , we have the open ladder after clearing 161.8% extensions and our enemy is without a shield. This is getting embarrassing for sellers. Depending on the decisiveness of the breakthrough in the swing, it can allow us to start moving our scope to six figures. Satoshi understood money over IP, he understood inelastic supply, he knew not to touch the wallet while outguessing the societal move towards a post trust world... a true genius. For those who haven't had the chance I would highly recommend digging into the old emails / forum posts. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
7
BTC Flirting to Break $50,000 📌 BTC Flirting to Break $50,000 This illustrates the perfect gift for valentines , but also touches on the problem of magical technical targets. An impulsive leg, avoiding the 161.8% target for our wave (iii) because it could lead to it being pinned by sellers. Now buyers are better than the textbook move for our , firstly when you think of development and secondly observing sellers and noticing that the boat is still not fully loaded to the long side. So a capitulation move towards +/- $57,000 is urgently required. Moreover, lets also consider 216.8% to be an easier area to defend than 161.8%. Admitting the weakness of sellers defence, worth considering that the path of least resistance is still to the topside. The threat is hard to find, only regulation will trigger the surrender (not expected to enter in play till summer 2021) and with a positional advantage here we must continue riding the pig . Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BTC Breaking to Fresh Highs📌 ridethepig | BTC Breaking to Fresh Highs Buyers taking the highs after the news, I have my eyes and now it is time to aim for the home run and initial ideal target at $47,500 - see the yearly close chart below. I managed to carry out some nice bids on the pullback although we failed to clear the $27,000 which was the well-known (C) target in our wave 4 pullback . Excellent moves, I hope this has been a healthy exercise for all to follow. The key now is to ride the momentum, here happy to hold longs while looking to add on a test of $41,000 as the most important pivot below should we see it... Unreal to think that $220,000 is in play for Q4 this year . Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 07.02.2021📌 Clarification of the manoeuvre designed to show the third liberating impulsive leg The following position was reached after Buyer's attack on the log chart created room for a momentum break. I chose the 'log chart' break (which was a game changer in the opening phase) as the one to track so that we could make use of the whitespace above. The way Buyer's play allows them to completely paralyse their opponent in majority . And now, I ask you: Why do Sellers permit the freeing move? Sellers refrain from stepping in. Correctly so, because here would be the typical example of liberation . The linkage was known in the classical school of Elliot , which believed in absolute freeing momentum moves on the log breaks and surprise surprise we got it with our wave 3 impulse. This coming to consciousness via Covid is accelerating the need for cryptographic sound money.. Let me recommend to you my Yearly closing chart: If you know the thoughts on swing chains , it is easy to outguess the concept of our opponent and understand which levels in the ladder they are naturally going to consider defending. In this particular case, we can see $53,400 as the next level to follow for Buyers. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Bitcoin for FED📌 ridethepig | Bitcoin for FED A superb live example of sellers attacking far out on the flank! These are unusual markets to say the least, rarely has the fundamental/macro picture fitted the bill. Now the correct way to proceed is to hammer at the minor support once breached and aiming for a sweep of Jan 4th lows which are now hanging. It is now obvious that our pivot point and trail stops held in the minor ABC inside the (iv) flow after an excellent defence. With the hurdle cleared, any weakness at the lows here should be sold into as a breakdown is quite tenable. Invalidation comes into play now above our latest 'C' at $34,888. I hope tracking this low live has been of some use... thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | Jan 4th Low are Hanging!📌 ridethepig | Jan 4th Low are Hanging! Buyers were hoping to play a ' manoeuvre ' on the pivot level (worth considering that sellers were not having any of it!) the rejection was a flawless setup and quite rightly trailing our stops with some breathing room was the right move . In order to establish a breach of the Jan 4th lows permanently(?) on this next move, sellers had to achieve this at the cost of a pullback but can now force continuation , for the win. All perfectly natural and inline with our trailing stops. With 'A' already taken in our ABC , the 2021 lows on Jan 4th are now hanging. A simple break of minor support at $30,900 will be enough to open the momentum . Clearly this final swing is getting slippery, so we need to define some parameters for reassessment . ↳ If we cannot break below the $30,900 minor support over the coming sessions, it will indicate the start of an impulsive leg cooking towards $39,200. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
7
Homerun for BTC!!📌 ridethepig | Homerun for BTC Here the choice is between another sweep and marking a bottom. The first results in a discovered temporary pullback which allows early buyers to start getting excited... but the second moves involves a slingshot, automatically through the pivot. A quick review of the initial charts we have been tracking ↳ This was the well known position. A yearly break unlocked $42,000 . Double check the chart, it was a purely technical map. It is terribly accurate and compelling; even the most unaware buyers have had a long time to take profits. After buyers cleared this target we closed the chapter and started to look for the retracement. 1️⃣ In the initial chart played some weeks ago, things came down to the following interesting ABC position ↳ Buyers last move was of course to clear on the exhaustive nature and failure to mark a new high. The swing ended and control as I pointed out switch sides. 2️⃣ The following sessions played out as expected, the imaginative sellers started to enter making the position look a really natural move ↳ The somewhat theatrical looking chart by sellers - has worked! Buyers no longer wish to refute and are running to the hills... sellers got the upper hand. The correct play now is to manage our risk and stops accordingly. 3️⃣ The congestion entered into play and I gave a simultaneous display on how to neatly mange the trail ↳ Buyers did in fact try the zig-zag within a zig-zag within a zag... but was not enough and sellers with a strong attack took out support and forced the bid further into retreat. 4️⃣ So the bottom forming of the swing, or the sweep towards fresh lows and to complete the pending Jan 4th test we have been tracking since day one? ↳ The idea of scaling a position Before you tackle what follows, you should quickly check that you are well versed in the concerning flows and swing. If not refresh your ideas on these, because these chapters will be important for the correct understanding of what follows. The flow is as follows, after the sharp drop in ((v)) the possibility of a pullback towards $32/$33,000 is on the cards before a final hammer back to re-test the main target at $28/27,000. I do not believe the energy sellers have shown can suddenly disappear just because of that retrace. No, it must still be on the menu, even if in some modified formation. A breach above our new pivot level at $34,200 will block the movement for sellers and threaten the sweep of any remaining trail stops from above. In other words, the pivot is our last blockade as sellers. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback and charts coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 20.01.2021📌 ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 20.01.2021 In this position (from the $39,000) highs it's time to protect our portfolio as we try a third time to get the breakdown. This has happened in drastic fashion and a great live example of good position management. The pullback came surprisingly close to our trail, before the old shorts started cheering again at the thought of another fight! Now sellers have to simply win the lows to complete ((iii)) which will be enough for us to trail our stops from (ii) to ((ii)) ...the over protecting will ensure we are strategic and decrease our radius of risk. Just one more diagram (since we are tracking the MT chart) in all its forms we will need a whole new thread dedicated to the final wave in this impulse once we complete our 4th wave retrace. I hope all is clear... if not feel free to shoot a message below or via DM.... To put simply, after (iv) is complete we can update the Weekly and Monthly charts. Why? Because the pullback here is 🔑 to the slingshot that we are tracking later in the year. And in fact, after a test of $28,000/$27,000 a lot of the retailers will be cleansed and allow the remaining warriors an excellent chance for positioning. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | BTC Flirting to Break Lower📌 ridethepig | BTC Flirting to Break Lower Here buyers are giving up the highs as expected and opening up a retracement back towards +/- $27,000 which will put pressure on the late lagging retailers. A more solid floor can be formed below the 4th Jan lows, if sellers can hold below $40,000 for the weekend then best is to cover. Showing a lack of momentum! Why not ride some profit taking, possibly followed by a very typical BTFD below the lows. But if sellers hold the breakdown with a strong counter then they threaten to immediately complete the major swing down: The outpost here is not a surprise to anyone who has been following the MT and LT chapters. The enormous breakout on the log chart carried such significance and explains why the sellers originally went fleeing! Worth considering this move is coming to an end, continuation is unfavourable without a pullback, since the inventory is now hanging low we can witness a slippery slope if sentiment turns negative for the coming weeks. As usual, thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 14.01.2021📌 Bitcoin Market Commentary 14.01.2021 It is sellers turn to move, we are hitting the main target for this third wave as widely expected since before the yearly close. The lows are clearly still mobile and the leg lower should now be safe to play. After much thought, and completely recognising stepping against the train, this should be a decision for experienced speculators only . When faced with the choice of protecting the retracement swing and continuation towards and impulsive leg (in this case it will be our invalidation at $42,800), is important in the sense that we are at a decision point. Sellers are looking to take advantage of the very contemplative buyers who will be late to react and before they know it we will be $10,000 lower. The pullback is completely healthy, a 5-3-5 typical corrective pattern will mean business as usual (BTFD) later in the year. For now, the main target belongs to $27,600 lows. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | BTC for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig XBT Market Commentary 19.12.2020 So we have the following picture; the prince slowly approaching his city after slaying the dragon, rescuing the princess and conquering the treasure. All the ministers and advisers are wanting to meet for a hearty breakfast and consider the correct way to balance the rewards. This picture is intended to convey how slowly this is happening despite how fast and decisive it seems at the time. Only the most important characters are present during the impulsive waves: The next moves in BTC are going to get very interesting for trading, a fresh break is not simply to create more space but also via a liquidity trap. So you must take the following to heart; try everything you can to not marry the position for its own sake but also not deny that BTC has rightfully earned its place in the sun! The answer will come from the yearly close. Holding the break up will not be simply something to play with. Here looking for $31,800; $42,600 and $53,400 as magical line targets above for 2021 before a pullback at some point into 2022 as governments become more aggressive. The main blind spots to the BTC thesis come from the political side, for now like hero from the fairy tale; head off happily.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
6
20201221 XBTEUR Short Accumulation Season (Update)So this is a continuation of previous, but since Trading view do not allow to see progress over time with renko, this is the same in Candlestick. I prefer to see it in renko to remove all noise, i recommend you take the habit on doing so as well. As you can see, in Kraken we had a huge pin after 2017 bull run... right when price was falling, its like somebody in kraken bought or everything or a market buy maybe made a glitch... who knows... but since we are back to that pin, as usual over time... Cheers! -CharterX
Short
by CharterX
20201219 XBTEUR Short Accumulation SeasonHello Everyone, I's been a while since i do not post. They did not let me post when i called the uptrend.. so let's see if now its all ok. So the main idea is on screen. I have been waiting this butterfly for long, i actually thought there would be small downtrend before uptrend but it looks like someone is on a rush. There's evidence on RSI of it. In any case it was beautiful to see this last uptrend period. Hell of a move! So as you see, we now have a bearish butterfly pattern in this market. This pattern it has been used for some time because if you traded well since beginning, it will give you hell of profits.. Same way sometimes whales use the Wyckoff, same way the y use the Bearish Butterfly Pattern. As soon as we touched the 1.27 there was a stop. It is likely that we now enter a new supply area to end this cycle. If you have study charts for big markets in this case im going to call the SOY .. for many years it was bouncing in a big range.. in horizontal before going up. So since btc its still young compare to oldest markets... i would say we could probably see same effect around here.. or like TESLA for instance... it made 2 W's before going rocket. We could see anther W ... bigger... that would make a huge double bottom (made of two smalls each). Remember February to May is coming... Companies will have to present to IRS losses and profits after a pandemic . BTC right now have done almost the same movement of gold. A lot is going under the table and i think people is not seeing it. Inflation effects.. etc. selloffs are around the corner in a lot of major markets next yeat) Anyway.. Im not saying it would start falling right away but pay attention on where are we standing right now. I would start doing profits and accumulating small shorts (this is not trade or financial advice, this are personal ideas... if i were a whale ;) ) Ill share a lot of graphics in the next coming days Trade Safe! Cheers, -CharterX
Short
by CharterX
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 10.12.2020📍 This chart demonstrates how sellers are now stepping in to defend the previous support which becomes resistance and how those buyers stepping against the current should be punished. The lust for continuation down is greater than many expect at first glance. With the retreat already underway, sellers are threatening for another -10% leg lower towards the $16,200 minor support structure. Buyers have managed to bottle up a lot of momentum in the initial covid leg and at the same time governments are getting more aggressive on the digital currency side. Here we can see how the long road turned to joy after a breakout on the log chart: The swing down, demands protection of $18,500 with sufficient preparation already done at the highs, play with that in mind. Because of the battlefield being so open, the attack on the lows should be clean and fast. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
14