Will the ETF really change anything?It looks like the bullish tendancy will go on. Bitcoin insiders have bet on a shorterm uptrend since the beginning of the year (red dots).
Why would it change? We might just see a pullback to the midterm trend (blue support) or even the longterm uptrend (purple support), but a little defiance from the institutions has no reason to shook all trust in Bitcoins traction, or so I think!
Xbteur
BTCUSD: Monitoring developments going into MarchThis is the Bitfinex chart. I'm currently using this one, due to having the highest liquidity of all exchanges. It seems like we have reached the last day of the recent daily uptrend signal we had in our charts, so we can expect a decline back to the uptrend mode, if the market is due for a breather to resume the long term rally.
If BTC doesn't fall under either the uptrend speed line support, or any of the support levels on chart, we could aim to add to longs, and cover our ETHBTC longs perhaps, although I think Ethereum will simply outperform BTC, if it continues to rally.
We'll have to see how things develop until March events are out of the way. Keep these levels in mind and see how the market reacts to them to act.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XBTEUR: Slightly different setupXBTEUR has a similar setup to BTCCNY, but the chart differs in how accumulation and distribution patterns formed.
Right now, there's an active daily uptrend signal pointing to 1067 euros, but it's likely going to fail. The market also built a potential new uptrend mode up here, a re-accumulation level, which could trigger a rally from here, or alternatively an uptrend failure and a brief pullback to support below.
We'll need to monitor this and btccny, and check the uptrend speed lines on each, as well as the reaction to scheduled fundamental events, by March 1st, and 11th.
See the chart annotations for more information.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ETHEUR: Long term uptrend updateIn my previous chart, in related ideas, I had outlined a set of conditionals that had to pan out for confirmation of further upside in ETH. For now, we're seeing a myriad of bullish signals, and most of the different conditions are becoming true.
If we manage to hit 13.2332 during February, we will have full confirmation of a monthly advance that can take us up by over 2000%, or even 2700% eventually. I'm holding longs from the 8.23usd mark, and
I recently added, by taking profits from part of my 80% account Bitcoin long at 0.01102:
I think we can hit the DAO hack key level soon, which would have us hit the required bullish target to trigger the monthly advance signal. There's also a 3-day timeframe bullish signal which suggests we can hit over 17 euros soon, so, I think all pieces align for this move to happen now.
Good luck if you're long with me. If you want to receive more specific alerts and signals, send me a pm.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Bitcoin / Euro - Breakout of triangle upwardsI'm looking for a good way into this potential move up in bitcoin.
Concerns:
The only thing that's really bothering me is that against other currencies bitcoin isn't making this triangle pattern or breakout. however I trust the strength of the euro against btc.
The breakout move is also lacking a little in volume. although it has gained a little from the day before.
Re-analysing Bitcoin - LONG overall - XBTEURHi
At this point I've sold half of my bitcoin at break even. We didn't get the 'pop' upwards I was hoping for. I don't like to mess around with trades once I'm in, but taking a fresh look at the latest candles, I'm feeling that the probability of a good move up immediately is against us and I'd rather protect my capital.
I have a few reasons based on how I think bitcoin will move medium term and also what the short term is telling us.
Medium term:
The price probably needs to 'reset' before being able to move up again in a healthy trend. If we look at the current upward movement (the pink line), it seems very unlikely that the price will continue at this angle without moving back to the larger average. We can get some idea of this by looking at previous waves. After the initial move back up they tend to collapse again to the weekly average before properly resetting.
Looking at previous movement there are probably to likely patterns we'll get. The first would be a triangular pattern, where the price would follow the pink line for some time and then follow the orange line before either retracing to the overall average (green arrow) or just continuing up (like the blue arrows). The second would be a slow curve back to the overall average and up (blue curved line), taking the route of of either the blue or green arrows.
Short term:
I was expecting the price to move higher before getting into one of these two medium term possibilities. But i'm making a decision now to sell half because the price is struggling. we're hitting what seems to be an important resistance line (the red line - points highlighted by the red circles). We're also repeatedly breaking the pink trendline and the moving averages on the lower timeframe. On top of this the volume is dropping off. really it would have been nice to see the volume increasing as this would have suggested interest and enthusiasm.
So what now?
For me the best action would be to wait for a proper reset. Hopefully we will get a move like the blue curve and can consider buying if the price signals a move higher near the big yellow trendline.
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Mark
End of CorrectionThe vicious sell-off since Jan. 5, 2017 is drawing to an end. Adding to long term holdings at ~ KRAKEN:XBTEUR 675. Brief price spikes down to ~ 650 is acceptable breathing room. Stops below 625.
Watch fundamental news out of China that may drive this as a significant reversal... Rumors are China cracking down on exchanges is a clean-up operation before they officially encourage their citizens to use bitcoin - this would easily propel us into the next phase of a bull market.
Possible W bottom on XBTEUR 1HHello there, this is just a quick analysis i wanted to share. We could be in the middle part of a W shaped pattern. I copied the length of the first half and it was approx. 10 hours. So my assumption is the pattern will complete and channel will break up in another 10 hours. Have a nice day.
Bitcoin Possible Tweezer into short squeeze?Hi there. I just noticed this symmetrical tweezer candles on the bitcoin daily. Combined with the tight BBands. Something is going to happen soon. And its going to be big, Usually, when things get big, its because they are surprsing. And the most surprising thing will be a leg up at this point. At least to alot of people it will. Anyway thats more or less baseless speculation.
Notice the channel i drew. The first one, leaning down, with a big break down at the end. The next channel i draw is leaning up, Maybe it will have a big break up. This is not strictly TA, but i like to get experimental every once in a while. Last but not least the dotted line is the weekly trendline going back to when the first rally started near the end of 2015. You know which one im talking about. These things could all come together and form a leg up. have a nice day.