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ridethepig | BTC WaterfallAn important chart update here as we approach the main targets in the leg higher. For those who have been following the live flows we forecasted earlier in the year; we have the choice of retreating and taking profits and avoiding loss of time. The question of momentum must be in some ways critical. The following diagrams show a breakdown of the previous position: Play may now go on.... a counterattack from sellers is a bold move. When major forces align and confidence in governments collapse, BTC comes down to a sort of hedge against the public sector. What I would highlight is the failure to break the previous highs with any meaningful force is very telling and sending alarm bells. 📍 "Selling their lives for the highest price" .... it is the classic death of unaware retailers. So what is in play here? Well, $20,000 resistance is quite happy to hold, and yet after a few failed attempts the train is fully loaded. FinTwit are all over this like a rash, and it appears quite understandable for we all want to sell our coins for as much as possible !!! Generally speaking, such a 5 wave "impulsive sequence" is typical and totally valid. The next chapter, a sharp retrace, seems a common occurrence as governments start to rush through their own digital currencies. We can expect politicians to become a lot harsher and more forceful with measures into 2021 and 2022 as the overwhelming reality of social programs failing hits home. Here looking for a complete retrace of the entire covid wave in the coming weeks and months. These are not the levels to build longs, those using FOMO as their weapon of choice will be punished. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.11.21Lets start by measuring the enthusiasm, the radius of the attack by looking at the previous diagram and understand why $21,000 is key for unlocking the next chapter: All is clear...Buyers have the control, there is very little to prevent the test of fresh all time highs, meaning we need to keep an eye on the impulsive extension target at $34,820; this game is very one sided. Not only should we still be holding our longs, dear reader, but laugh and continue to add more! So, let us stick to the plan, manage the risk appropriately, watch-out for any Power Grid 'attacks' that can provide well-timed dips providing buying opportunities, we have more than enough ingredients in the pot! Back to business as usual here with a fresh round of map updates coming over the next few sessions... Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.10.21📌 What have we got in play here? On the news flow Paypal does matter but it was expected and is done at the right time if you ask me. I mean the retrace here will be healthy, to trap the late buyers who are unaware thinking its non-stop-moon while also opening an attack on the previous breakout traders at $11,500. A positional play. Sellers can now work on the profit taking and arrive on the support for nothing less than a retest. The long term view remains intact but it is also extremely obvious that we are set for another flush before the elections.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.10.20📌 Bitcoin - October 2020 Well done those still holding longs in what has been a rather slow but simple grind higher. Buyers could have developed quicker according to the flow models but we maintained flexibility. Next comes the wave 3 target at $12,364. And buyers are not particularly favourable to break through without a retrace. The correct course is to take some profits and reload from cheaper levels. Rinse and repeat. And now, I present the whole macro flow chart, because of the log-chart breakout it is a good example of how even strong hands and advanced players are frequently unable to understand the core strategy. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.09.15The entire crypto board has been well supported purely from an excess liquidity perspective and the value trap in the past few quarters, which has set the tone for the MT and LT BTC flows in general. 📍 As I understand it there are a lot of large hands caught short BTC, unless there is a big leg down in equities before ext week then we have room to complete the test of $12,000, which translates to a cascading of short coverings. Additionally, it feels like there is an underlying flow in BTCUSD from the MT and LT hands who know how to diversify and adjust portfolios to the present times. A lot of focus back on FED this week as the implementation of Keynsian economics becomes hard to navigate. Those who track BTC from an inflation perspective, will know that it is very odd since last time Powell spoke at Jackson and pointed towards tolerance for higher inflation (by default rather than by choice) the 5's - 30's spread has narrowed which is essentially screaming that market expectations do not subscribe to Jerome one bit. BTC (well better said, tech) is a deflationary phenomenon and points to a decent conviction away from fiat and towards digital money. Add to BTCUSD longs on dips towards $10,585.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Next leg up for BTC?I love it when BTC goes for a walk.... cheap cheap coins on sale here with buyers back from their vacation. Moreover they have their eyes on the $12,000 highs which they seem too fancy. 📍 And here for a change of scenery we shall dig into the LT macro chart. The multi year battlefield adds all kinds of clarity for our attack, buyers want to load the lows and trap any late sellers walking offside and catch them out of position. The technical setup here constitutes a buying opportunity from a strictly risk:reward perspective too. The purpose of protecting the $9,765 lows is endurable for the most part, naturally the retest of support is easy to defend. As long as it is holding there is still hope! Here tracking for a move back towards $12,000 over the coming sessions with a tradable momentum gambit through the breakouts. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
16
ridethepig | The Long Road Turns to JoyIn the realm of 2020, the struggle for freedom is identical to the struggle to shake off the latest resistance which is still bothering us, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing problem . 📌 We are going to dig deeper into the concept of liquidity warfare, as applied to that of positional game theory, as applied to swing trading. The attack is just a matter of "when". The transition with "The Great Lockdown" is playing out as expected. Unemployment Claims are still maintaining pressure on the Global Economy and by doing so put the ideal of an advantage towards retail participation and a liquidity trap or bubble of posturing in Bitcoin. This advantage can be exploited either by riding the inflows towards large cap crypto's or the mid caps to a lesser extent. The notes taken from our earlier Dollar macro chart, which is playing out accordingly to plan (i.e Powell artificial dollar devaluation) will give us an example of the shift away from government backed currencies. See the following chart, we are witnessing a digital migration as the stem game for a new monetary philosophy. Get long scarcity . This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea to roll up the whole transition, should come as no surprise with the timing with confidence in the public sector is collapsing, and a shift of capital towards the private sector unfolding right on time for a decade of privatisation. It is now important to take a retrospective look at Volatility after the earlier moves. VIX could and should have moved in the calmer waters, but sharp speculators are itching to complete a capitulation move towards 85 which is concerning for the more short-term view on BTC. The plan was: 1️⃣ Long Vix @ 11 in 2019 2️⃣ Covered @ 85 possible temporary top, e.g a retrace towards 25 was to be played 3️⃣ Long Vix again to advance in triumph It is important to understand the effective relationship with VIX, confidence and economic cycles. When risk is being strangled it makes absolutely no difference to the BTC supply side; consequently what is really important for us to track is confidence in the public sector and whether and to what extent the latter causes inflows towards Cryptocurrencies. To illustrate the inner flows, we should consider the following cup and handle as a base towards the 3rd impulsive leg. After Bitcoin significantly broke out of the log chart, we are unlocking the highs once more with $20,941, as a minimum target. What would be a risk to the move? Well, we have a lot of work still to be done in the $10,000 - $9,000 area, for good or ill, to leave scaffolding around the base. I am actively looking to buy this dip and eyeballing an ambitious momentum swing towards the highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | Bitcoin Market Commentary 2020.09.01Heading into the office this morning to find Cryptos stronger after a holiday weekend. BTCUSD is now less focused on risk and finding more USD devaluation players getting involved. With all of the weaker summer seasonalities behind us, it is pragmatic for players to look for value in scarcity. The long-term macro chart constitutes a formidable comfort; the purpose of understanding the long-term direction of an asset is to put your mind at ease. Focus on the long-term to navigate the short-term flows with endurable strength. The $21,000 and $36,000 ready to accept bids, buyers will be kept busy. Eyeballing a tasty desert for all Crypto enthusiasts. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.08.04The control belongs to buyers no matter whether it is your bias to fade this move or continue riding the pig. It is Buyer's move and they are playing to damage their opposition with much effect. The capitulation from sellers here will be brutal as we start to see the liquidity trap. The buyers are rushing to capture an appropriate amount of safety and scarcity in BTC, perfectly reasonable behaviour when we are at this stage in the cycle and with confidence in public assets diminishing. It is not only the case with BTC, but also with other Crypto majors that the flows are coming. Bitcoin is really starting to trade well even with Equities starting to look heavy. Flows are clearly leveraged dollar selling and also real money parking for the MT and LT. The moves will get sharper after the breakout on the log chart feels like we could easily continue to $13,000 in the short-term. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | The Nature of the Work Breakouts and impulsive swings 📌 @ridethepig June Map Buyers had the move and played to exchange at the key support lows, which despite the length of compression can also be expressed in an impulsive breakup in no other terms than: Buyers in full control and gunning to take out the highs in the compression range. I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan towards the second target although it should have been broken on the first test in my opinion as was well within reach. I see no other ending here than for BTC to outperform, the 'ideal asset' for a time when confidence in the public sector is diminishing by the hour. Things proceed as follows: buyers load the 9012.x lows and accumulation begins. And now that we are finished with this phase we can clear the way for buyers to test 10,800.x into August. Here the only prevention can come from state bans on exchanges although the inevitable outcome in this case would be, as many know, private markets and auctions. In the swing cooking here, buyers are liberated from the grips of compression, an interesting setup! How keenly will buyers attempt to achieve the ground? Where are sellers stops? Why? For those wanting to further the conversation we can track the inner flows together in the comments below. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.06.23BTCUSD with an underlying bid tone trickling slightly higher and completing the second targets in the sequence. For now though, I am happy to continue fading intraday dips in BTC and look to re-instate longs around 9360/9400. The unhealthy collapse in consumer confidence in the public sector will continue adding to the brighter picture for BTC. Gold and BTC look cooked to outperform in a Sovereign Debt Crisis . Well done all those riding this one.. a clean and straight forward move so far. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | A Game Changer Break For BTC! Awful macro prints from Europe this morning, expectations of those betting on a quick V-shaped recovery will be rectified. BTC is entering back into play and offers protection on the risk side, it is evident that a compression range is about to blow, a break of $10,000 will trigger momentum as any remaining shorts are forced into retreat. The flows must be managed more skilfully as we enter into the next chapter in risk markets: buyers must not lose tempo here, making a breakout on the log chart is a game changer for BTC. For the flows, we are sitting at great value levels for a zig-zag is in play via $14,000 => 10,200 => 21,000 It is obvious now that the FED and other CB's are funding government policies, Keynsian economics is now at odds and we must begin to position for protection on the private side. This positioning in BTC is becoming a hedge against governments, and a "corridor swing" towards the $35,600 highs would mark the end of this impulsive third wave of a five wave sequence. The chart more or less exhausts all there is to say about the upcoming swing. We can tackle the intricate legs live in the comments if there is enough interest... Good luck!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
(W) - BTC in Symmetrical triangle + Possible Bull flag?What most people don't realize at times like this is to zoom out and check the bigger picture. This is the weekly chart of bitcoin which show a symmetrical triangle formation and possible bull flag. Also note how the volume is slowly lowering since the kickoff of the bullish run. In the shortterm bearish scenario: My first target is going long 6500-6700 My next target is going long 5300 - 5500 in the shortterm bullish scenario is going short at 9000 and 9500. In my eyes confirmation of a continued bull run would be a higher top than the previous one with good volume. Like for example a strong close with not a huge wick above 10k. These are very safe entries looking at the chart now if the volume keeps the same.
by jonathanvn
2
ridethepig | You Know The Drill ... BTFD !Even BTC could not avoid the exodus from risk last week. Positioning isn't the problem in this case as the market is back to Jan levels, a clean sweep of the soft hands to reset play ahead of the halving ... We can expect to see a broad recovery of Crypto this week on the back of co-ordinated CB policy intervention, I still favour trading BTC from the long side around these levels, for a move higher towards $13,500 and $16,000, as the liquidity punch bowl continues to be refilled. Momentum in the macro community is starting to gain speed as confidence in public sector assets deteriorates, this premise will be positive for cryptocurrencies broadly. In the medium term, potential Crypto hedges from risk will also come into focus as markets provision for losses in global growth and s/t EPS. Miners are in a bit of a tight spot with prices at these levels, there is a lot of liquidity being taken out the system in LTC at the moment which is help: I have been arguing that positive BTC fundamentals should see the highs inevitable taken, but it became clear last week that positioning was too heavily loaded on one side and induced the BTC sell-off. Happy to stay long and add on dips. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts and etc coming!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Keep Working Longs...You have to bet on this bunny to win.. right now it is better to be buying BTC dips because its miles ahead. You all know by now how things are turning down on the fundamental side, BTC will perform in the same way Gold has of late. Things are going to get worse on the macro side, and you are just saying at this point in time BTC is one of the best places to park. Fresh money came in and snapped up all of the coins under $7,000 within a few sessions. This was widely expected, and the market began to price the halving. Increment by increment: Retail continue to short this attempting to call the top, smart money is just riding the pig. Knowing that the direction is up. Load when the market shows strength, these are all winners. Well done buyers! Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
2