Xbteur
Are we in a huge bearish Elliott wave?(2) was a text book .618 Fibonacci retracement
(3) could be a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of (1) to (2)
(4) could be a .5 Fibonacci retracement of (2) to (3)
(5) coule be 1.618 Fibonacci extension of (2) to (3).
I personally find it hard to believe as I am a long term Bitcoin maximalist but... nothing is impossible in the crypto space.
Probabilities of a short squeeze are vanishingOn the TA side:
BTC just broken the ascending triangle
RSI trend is broken
EMA 5 (4h) crossed EMA 50 (4h)
On the news side:
The ETF of ProShares will most probably be denied by August 23rd while people sill hope for an approval
There are still too much optimism in this bear market making me think we did not touch the bottom
I closed my long position opened during the ascending triangle but I am not taking a short position until the official decision of the SEC on the ProShares ETF.
There is still a chance - that I consider small - that a denial of the ProShares ETF will have no effect on the market and trigger a short squeeze.
Are we repeating the May 2018 drama again?For a bearish scenario:
Charts are showing the same pattern
RSI is very high
ETF decision is delayed in September
The outcome of the last Congress hearing on cryptos is worst then the previous one
The article mentioning insiders saying that it is almost certain that ETF will be approved are unknown or even not anymore part of the decision circle
(an unreliable but a fun one) CNBC Fast Money show is bullish (track record shows there are mostly wrong)
For a bullish scenario:
The up trend is strong
Volumes are still very strong
No real resistance level until 9,500$
The Pitchfork Top Call & Where Fractals Could Lead Us. Experimental Chart.
Due to lack of movment in the crypto market, I have been experimenting will less common tools to aid in technical analysis. The chart above shows a fully extended pitchfork that just about perfectly calls the top.
Not only that but each additional level below that acted as support or resistance at one time or another, meaning this pattern will likely continue.
Here is a chart showing how the original pitchfork was drawn:
I then added an two inside pitchforks to the previous tops. One at 20000 and the other at 1400 to see if there were any similarities in the pattern.
If we were to continue following the 2014 cycle we should have 1-2 additional legs down. I am very curious as to how accurate this ends up being.
I want to note that his analysis also supports a previous study done in March.
History is here to aid with predictions, but it rarely tells the future.
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Bitcoin Butterfly: D hit, could it be B of a LARGE Butterfly?Bitcoin is in a really interesting place at the moment... Personally i would love it to get up to the 1.618 ext of the Butterfly pattern discussed in the video. The reason for the is if it does that level is right at the 78.6 fib level of a larger Butterfly pattern which could be setting up.
I discuss what I will do if price gets to 78.6 and has not hit the missed central pivots.... hint... I'll short back down to those levels. The I will look to get long if I see price forming a C so I can trade the CD leg.
Jump to reference points:
0:29 discuss the small Butterfly which has completed at 1.272 ext
1:40 Refer to video of last week (see below) where i did not take the pattern (C D leg) because of missed pivots to down side
2:10 trading rules
2:45 missed pivots to the down side
4:10 pattern projections using "trend based fib extension" tool to see where price could go
5:10 new Fib levels drawn in, price has exceeded 61.8 could it go to 78.6? Looks possible if smaller Butterfly pattern goes to 1.618 extension
5:55 potentially getting short at 78.6 / 1.618 ext and trading back down to central pivots assuming they are still missed
6:45 are we seeing the begginings of a LARGE Butterfly forming up? If price goes to 78.6 then it is quite possible
8:40 I call the smaller Butterfly a BAT which is incorrect
I will update as things progress
Elliot wave triangle is forming in the 5th wave Think this market needs more time to finish the correction wave D of the major 5th wave, I will not trade this market until I see a break out above 8000 level and it is confirmed, otherwise we might test back below the support level 7000. we need to wait to see if the 5 wave formation happened in the major 5th wave
BTCEURHello guys,
I'm a bit doubtfull of using the euro chart due to the weird spikes that occur like we can see here in the wave 1. Anyway.
This is my current thought about the BTCEUR pair based on recent developments. We had a very shallow fifth rectracement (orange line) and many people expected it to go down to 6000 before pumping up. Even for me, I missed the buying opportunity here and am waiting for the first bigger wave to complete and buy on the dip of wave 2. This is still risky though since we are still in a bear market even when we complete the potential first bull wave (green line).
Potential peak of the first bigger wave (white); 7024 (Fib level + prior resistance)
If the market has strong bull sentiment we might reach 7480 before having a healthy pullback of this bull wave.
The RSI on the daily still has some room to pump up wave 5.
For the moment I'm just going to wait for it to retrace to more interesting levels after this huge pump that we had.
Buy zone; 6030 - 5850
Likes and comments are welcome!
p.s this is no financial advice
Capitulation in April - Harmonic Patterns + PennantThis triangle in BTCUSDT shows an upcoming dump to occur in the month of April or less likely at the beginning of May.
This triangle will dump BTC to 4-5k and I expect the whole market to have a big bounce towards those levels.
Within the next week, I expect a possible bounce to 8k maximum. The bounce will happen cause the fractal harmonic pattern shown will likely take btc back to that level. I am going to short BTC once more as soon as the price reaches this area.
Good luck!