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Xbteur

A take on BTC short-term price actionThe chart speaks for itself. Make sure to have your funds in a safe place BEFORE 1st of August, under no circumstances leave them on exchange (unless you dont mind losing them). Unfortunately, I am not able to predict what will happen after the critical first day of August as the situation is highly complex. One thing is for sure, fear and uncertainty will be spooking around in most of us. That would usually result in a sharp sell off, but since transactions are risky then, I really have no idea how this situation will evolve in term of price movements. I would really appreciate any feedback here, let me know what you think. Stay safe guys!
by ntron
2
XBTEUR: Update, contracting/expanding triangle and sentimentI think we are seeing a massive sentiment extreme here, indicating a short term bottom in cryptocurrencies accross the board. We needed to see sentiment turn from extremely positive to extremely negative, to generate a new buy signal to resume the trend, so this is expected and good for longs. I'm watching here to add to $BTC longs, since I only hold 10% I entered at 2050 EUR on June 15th, after being in cash for a while. Since then, I traded a few times, but overall, we carry some losing trades, despite making some good gains on a few ones as well. If you're mainly following a trend, there will be periods of loss during consolidations. The good thing, is our portfolio is 'less down' than just holding $BTC. After the consolidation phase ends, we will outperform simply holding $BTC again, which is the goal of my trading as an active manager. That being said, keep an eye out for the next two days here, if we do hold, we can be sure of a return to the 2170-2293 levels again, and possibly, people will turn bullish after breaking the triangle trendline up, by then...to quickly see their trade fail, and then break down, people in despair again, and some shorting again...to then see their trade fail once more after fundamental risks disappear, IF they do resolve favorably. I think it is likely that miners finally give up on their precious ASICBOOST advantage, in lieu of higher $BTC prices, since they are backs against the wall, with a dagger pointed at their throat right now, thanks to the BIP148/UASF countdown. No one wants a split, it doesn't benefit anyone I think. They might try to stall it, meanwhile, and I guess whoever mines the UASF chain, will benefit from it the most after it is the dominant one and other variants are abandoned, so, it does make sense for them to not reveal their stack of cards before August 1st. Cheers, Ivan Labrie, crypto bull, despite mobs with tar, feathers, pitchforks and torches in the streets looking for me.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
XBTEUR has strong consolidation with a symmetrical triangleI have been trying to catch the break out for the last few days with a tight stop loss just in case it goes the other way which is also very possible. The pull back from all time highs hasn't been strong enough to suggest a reversal in trend so I believe this to be a continuation pattern. I will be waiting for break out confirmation before I get in again though. The pattern is a symmetrical triangle so see the below link for more info. stockcharts.com
by Koogi
Bullish or Bearish? Wait for the triangle to breakIt's starting to look like the plot of a movie. Half of the market seems to try to convince (themselves) we're bullish. The other half is trying to convince (themselves) we're bearish. Everyone looking for validation everywhere. I'm currently out in USDT and sold the three tops. Really not convinced this is going higher so I'm more on the bearish side. But I know I could be wrong, so I'm ready to turn sides at any time I see this going up. 1. First reason I'm still bearish is the 3D MACD line. It has just crossed down and I think there is a lot of room to go lower. 2. It does look like a Head & Shoulders formed. 3. At this precise moment, BTCUSD is within an ascending channel. These kind of channels tend to break down. 4. Yet another one, BTCJPY is within a rising wedge and 1H MACD wants down. 5. We're currently at the last pitchfork resistance. ______________________ There is something I see bullish though, which is the current triangle fractal we're in, resembles the one just before. If this plays, we should dump one more time, bounce, and then go up. ______________________ Currently, my advise to everyone who is anxious to buy back in, or doesn't know for sure if it's a good idea to sell now and take profits for a three month bull run, is to wait and see the direction where this triangle breaks. If it breaks up with volume, buy in and sell around 3800. If it breaks down, well, don't buy. If you're holding use these key levels to get an idea about what to do. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CoinMajesty
39
XBTEUR Long positionXBT experienced a long needed correction from a parabolic rise. The volatility of the market make predicting price movement in the short term difficult but XBT remains bullish in the long term. The fundamentals are too strong to do otherwise. The market is not at a great entry point right now as we are at a strong zone of support/resistance. Volume is poicking up suggesting further mvoement but those who lost in the crash may bear the market down further. Two buy zones, with different profit loss ratios. If you are a bull in the long term, any purchase below an ATH (all time high) is a good trade. Buy zones: 2200, 1.19r 2102, 6.36r (larger order) Sell Zones: 2448 (1% of total) 2634 (4% of total) Stop loss 2020 Follow, share and like for more regular trading analysis. Comments welcome. Tweet for quick responses. - Tenjin Crypto @Tenjin_Crypto As always, do not overextend on a position. Hold with 70% of portfolio and trade with 30% or less depending on your risk model. Set alerts on blockfolio or whatever alert software you use for either sell areas or stop losses. #tenjincrypto #cryptocurrency #tradingsignals #analysis #buysellzone
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1096649
BTCUSD: UpdateI think we will see a sideways range in $BTCUSD, as anticipated in my last publication. Having bought a position very close to the recent correction bottom, I can comfortably wait it out until the weekly trends are ready to rally again. The timing for this event interestingly approaches August 1st, so, it makes me think the market will grind sideways for longer. There are two targets I came up with, after processing information from weekly and daily charts, which indicate that we can hit prices between 4000 and 6000, so, it won't surprise me to see prices rally rapidly, once fundamental risks are out of the way. I aim to build a 20% position in $BTC by then. Longer term charts imply a rally is likely all year, which is even more interesting, since the SEGWIT2MB date for a hard fork would be by the end of the year, this could be a cause for a correction or consolidation, cooling off after a 2 year rally. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
XBTEUR: Sideways consolidationPeak sentiment helped us find the top a few times. The last one was a nice bear market in BTC for a few days. I covered my shorts, and bought part of my BTC position (10% of net worth). I aim to have a maximum of 25%, after we get all the scaling news out of the way, and once we have a new weekly uptrend signal. For now, we are under pressure, and we might see a volatile sideways range ensue. The daily chart shows a potential uptrend starting, which points to a sharp 10 day advance, today being day #1, which could top and reverse back down to support, be it at the starting point of the move like the previous 9 day rally, or maybe to the 2170 mark. I noticed people were starting to become negative a day ago, when we were hitting support, and traders who were complaining about being in cash, and even worse shorting, started to complain about NOT being in a short anymore, and missing this action. This is typical behavior at turning points. The thing is that sentiment is rapidly switching, turning 180 degrees over the course of 2 weeks...Interesting to say the least. Combine the crowd behavior, with the fundamental information available to us from multiple sources and we can paint a vivid picture of what's going on, and what we can expect from this or any market. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: this is the signal I sent to my clients to long: imgur.com "Let's try buying a 10% long in BTC now. We will add back to longs gradually."
Long
by IvanLabrie
34
XBTEUR: Top didn't last long...China rescued bullsIn my previous chart I had determined that Bitcoin was due for a correction, due to sentiment and a potential weekly top signal. What I didn't account for was the impact of unknown news at the time, of the timely addition of ETH to the big three chinese exchanges (Huobi, Btcchina, Okcoin) and also, a few days later, the normalization of Bitcoin withdrawals from these sites. This together with the current japanese and korean craze, triggered a failure of the forming distribution, and created a bullish signal (which I missed). Prices have continued to progress higher but now we approach the forecasted time and pice targets for this rally. I wonder if we do get a correction after this since people believe Bitcoin can rise forever, pretty much, and are openly mocking sellers. There is a potential fudstorm coming, as people in this biz would call it, associated to the scaling debate, that is bound to intensify. Since I have given up on shorting, it is prone to correct, which would frustrate me and other bears who got margin called recently (I simply got out of shorts unharmed, but some big players got margin called at okcoin lately, in the order of 13 million dollars+). Seeing a new daily low, specially after this rally time and price are exhausted, would potentially be a valid short signal to take with a tight stop above the highest high. Try not to risk more than 1%. I would even go as far as to risk only very, very small, like say 0.1-0.3% but it's up to you. Once we get the actual top, and after June's monthly close, we can determine two levels to potentially cover and buy back into long positions, ideally by July 31st or later. There is a date set for Segwit activation, by August 1st, which interestingly coincides with the time required to absorb the supply after the end of the last weekly 'Time @ mode' uptrend signal expired, so this would give us extra reassurance to go long by then if conditions are ripe for it (ideally paired with extreme bearish sentiment, which could come in anticipation of all the risks the scaling solutions present). This is a good article for people unaware of potential risks that could become a concern, once investors remove their bullish blinders (if they ever do): medium.com Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
59
BTC - Bitcoin will be BackEvery bubble has to pop, and when it does on Bitcoin, it usually goes back close to where it had all begun. In this case, Bitcoin was within a bullish channel that lasted for 550 days, until it broke it up, went straight up for about three weeks, and now it's dumping. So where is the bottom? Well, taking this channel into consideration, the bottom should be the previous resistance, which has now become support. The price of this support should be between 1550-1800 and the maximum date for this to happen is when the FIB resistance and the channel touch each other, around August 1st, date of the UASF. I am not saying it will happen in this date, but it won't be longer than it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CoinMajesty
23
XBTEUR: Long term forecast updateI have corrected my weekly chart for $XBTEUR, since I had made a small mistake on the intermediate term forecast. The weekly chart shows we can rally for one more week here, before getting a consolidation or correction, and the target for it matches the long term top target for this pair. There is a catch, if we convert the Bitstamp long term target, from USD to EUR, we get roughly to 3000 Euros for the top, so, I am inclined to aim for this lofty target in this pair as well. I will continue to hold BTC, and add if we get a correction in a month or so. My goal is to maximize my exposure to BTC when it counts, which is, right at the end of a correction or consolidation phase. So far, my timing using Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and trading methodology has been impeccable, so I expect it to continue to work until this trend tops. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
22
XBTEUR: Update and potential weekly targetIn this chart I examine the trend since $XBTEUR bottomed after the Bitfinex hack induced correction. The weekly chart reveals an uptrend time and price target that can guide us in the coming weeks. It appears like we can reach a peak in sentiment and consolidate or get a correction after we reach this zone in the next 2 weeks. The daily chart will guide us in the next few days, keep an eye on sentiment and news stories related to $BTC. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I'm holding longs in $BTC among other cryptocurrencies.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
Symmetrical Triangle"Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sounds obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case. Breakout Confirmation: Some traders apply a price or time filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts." - stockcharts.com
by UnknownUnicorn951173
1
XBTEUR: If this is the top...We can expect a sideways consolidation, or, some kind of correction and retest of support, during the next month, as described here. Today, a support level held, and weekly is still in an uptrend for the next 3 weeks, technically, but sentiment was too positive before this drop, and we had already exceeded all weekly upside targets ahead of time, which usually points to a 'bubbly' situation. I reduced long exposure in $BTC to about 20% of the account, exactly 2 days ago. I am now looking to hedge the downside if necessary, on at least half the position, or maybe all of it. Good vehicles to do so are altcoin pairs like $ZECBTC, $ETHBTC, $DASHBTC, $XRPBTC, but you can also open shorts against fiat currencies if you trust exchanges with your money. As I pointed out in my previous post, the spreads closing (in relative performance terms during 1 year) signaled something was going on, it wasn't a normal occurrence. Like, everyone bought closing the spread up. Who's left to buy?... The fundamental situation is interesting but potentially dangerous. Litecoin's implementation of Segwit and the first Lightning network payment lit a fire of excitement, but it can also become a risk factor if this test were to fail. The first flaw that is found in this implementation will accelerate a decline in $BTC certainly, so, it is better to be prepared. Most people saw this as bullish, many were celebrating, people in my country were getting together, drinking champagne and celebrating $BTC's high prices, and $LTC's Segwit adoption like it was the 2nd coming. This was a sentiment red flag for me, which drove me to reduce exposure to be safe. Clearly, I was right so far, since prices fell more than 5% since then. Let's see how it evolves. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
BTCJPY: 1 year spreads are closed nowThis is an interesting phenomenon, the 1 year spreads in BTC prices have now converged. Weekly charts show $BTC can continue rallying, but it is good to take some precautions, holding equal amounts of $ETH as a hedge to it. I'm not sure of the implications of the spread closing like this, but it might affect prices soon. Perhaps it is related to Bitfinex, since spreads closed to the upside to match prices there, despite the problems with USD funding and withdrawals at that exchange. Interesting to keep an eye on the action from here onwards. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
13