5 month repeatable pattern. XBT Backwardation for Christmas?While studying XBT Contango and Backwardation I noticed a repeatable pattern that XBT was going into backwardation every month for the last 5 months around the same time. I don't have an answer for this, but my assumption is it has to do with commercial interests and how they are driving the XBT Futures market.
The strategy does not always catch the top/bottom perfectly, but it would have been profitable 5 months in a row if executed properly. I noticed that every month for the last 5 months XBT went in backwardation at the end of every month around the 24th - 28th. Typically backwardation is a great buying opportunity to go long, however since the current trend is bearish i prefer to trade with current trend. Since backwardation was repeatable, and likely driven by commercial interest or other fundamentals, I was curious to see if there was a time each month that would be best time to take a short? So far I have noticed between the 6th and 10th each month would provide a profitable trade to hold until later in the month in hopes of catching backwardation to cover.
All this analysis was made possible with my indicator script the XBT Contango Calculator. I have been making improvements to the original code and hope to release Version 3 in the near future.
Xbtusdshort
BTC 2019-12-09 Triangle: Bullish Reversal or Contracting?Hi guys,
Today presents an interesting situation with the triangle that is forming. Granted, there have been large volume spikes and market volatility which makes the actual ABDCE count hard, but I think it is still there. The two primary options are either be a bullish reversal triangle triggering a movement upwards or a contracting triangle with a large move downwards.
I am leading towards the downward direction at this time with a short position active. Be careful to manage positions well if you are playing this market. Anything can happen with a push in either direction.
Which triangle do you think it is or is it even a triangle? Is something else is forming? Let me know in the comments!
Time Frames With Indicators:
1-2 hour: RSI is stuck in the middle range. STOCH is showing bullish signs with price action. MACD was riding above the histogram for sometime and has room to move down.
4-12 hour: Bearish signs are there noting recent lack of volumes, price action, and strength because of the recent downturn and lack of movement last night.
I am a simple market analyst - not a financial analyst
fortis Fortuna adiuvat - fortune favors the brave
BTC "History Repeats Itself" IDENTICAL daily/weekly cloud setupTake a look at this chart very objectively.
I have added the Weekly Cloud along with the daily cloud to the Daily chart.
Take a look in June 2018, when the Daily cloud crossed under the weekly cloud, it was the beginning of the end.
Take a look now, the daily has once again crossed under the Weekly.
The TTM squeeze also looks almost identical, which means we will see another negative momentum bump once the chart hits the weekly cloud and a large dumps follows.
Heading towards the end of the year, all shall be revealed! As a bear, I'm super excited!
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Why So Bearish? Long Term $BTC This is the line break chart for 1M BTC. The purpose of line break charts is to filter out market noise and give a clear indication of the current trend and trend reversals. It is very obvious that BTC was in a bull run since its birth and this bull run needs a serious correction. This correction has started not long ago on 2018. 2020 would be more bloody than expected. However, this would be a great opportunity to buy at very cheap levels again.
BTC goes to 7675!Last 2 balances goes down.
The price is in a empty (vacuum) zone, which means that historically there are no supports that could deploy the price. The only thing that can reverse the price in a vacuum zone is the formation of a wide balance with a huge volumes, which is goes in the opposite direction. So far, this is not happening.
For now the price is being formed a small balance with the range 8000-8250.
With a high probability the price will go further down to 7650 or even 7500. But before that they can make an up-trust (big tail) above 8250 to shake out the sellers form the market and hook buyers who have breakout orders.
While the price remains below 8500 - the bear pressure remains.
#XBT - BTC [BITMEX] SHORT & LONG Hi all !
When we look at the XBT chart for a SHORT TERM. trade we saw SELL pressure around $95xx'ish ! And we can say we gonna see same pressure till next Supply-Demand zone ( It's around $84xx-85xx'ish) !
Because of that; we are keeping our SHORT position till that zone ( $84xx-85xx'ish).
When we touch our target we gonna back to the LONG position for LONG term. Our target will be between $12.3-13.5k!
Thats the our Trade Plan for XBT, For SHORT term And LONG term.
P.S.: PLS DYOR!
If you've any idea or analysis for XBT you can share with us at the comment side!
Don't forget touch the LIKE button!
Thanks!
#BTC may surprise you. $BTCIn any scenario if I look into Bitcoin to be bullish, that can be ths move, I would say a move down first will be good, so people will close their longs and it will surprise them going up, where it should be rejected from the Resistance $9150. In any scenario a nice move above $9150 will turn me bullish else I will still eye $8300 level, You can adjust your scalps accordingly if you see reactions on any level as per chart.
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Bitcoin break down support 8900$. Bitcoin price action break down important support at 8911$. Current hold above 8700$. Potential plan A target 0.618 fibs price level at 8553$, Next target Prev. Montly open at 8300$, Most bearish at 7950$.
Volume: Sell pressure increased, confirm bearish price action.
Indicators: RSI bellow 50 points, MACD bearish crossover bellow zero line. Bearish sign.
S/R: Support at 8700, Major Support at 8300, Resistance 8911, Major Resistance 9329$ 0.382 fibs.
Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. All the information shared here is for learning and entertainment purposes only.
XBT USD Kraken near to the Dead Cross in daily chart In the 1hr chart we have a bulish scenario but also the RSI is overbought and MACD is crosing downwards. In the 1d Chart we´re near the dead cross and i expect after a short pump that we back to previous level, bounce back and than go down to 7800 USD. After a dip to 7800-7500 zone we´ll see what happen...