"it's just a double three" 👆Been thinking long and hard about this picture, and i think this is the one.
i've been observing the price action these last two nights on the smaller time frames, and noticed that from our july 20th "bottom", there was a shift in momentum, a break of pattern - and a totally new vibe that's entered into this market space. hard for me to explain what i mean, but i'm sure you could see\feel it too. we haven't seen an impulse this clean in quite a long time, which leads me to believe that we are finally in Wave Y of this Wave B correction.
all of the fib relations check out for this flat idea, and i have a few potential targets for you guys.
• Wave Y = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W
• Wave Y can not pass 161.8% of wave W otherwise it will become considered a Wave 3 impulse.
Therefore,
•100% = 37.1k
•123.60% = 39.3k
•161.80% = 43.1k
If btc breaks above 43.1k on this run, then our Wave 4 correction is behind us, and we can expect to see new highs.
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Ps. I've never traded a flat correction before, in fact this is the first time I am seeing one this large with my own eyes. All of these relations are textbook accurate, so I'm going to simply treat these coming days as a learning experience, so I'll know what to expect if we ever come across this sort of structure again.
I appreciate all of your support, and I hope you guys trade safe in these crazy markets.
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i entertained this flat idea the other night, but the liquidity hunt the other day really threw me off.
which would put our wave C target ranging between 14~20k depending on where this wave b move tops out.
Xbtusdt
a deep dive into the projected downside target.i made a post on february 4th calling the top of btc at 60k - i was off by 5k \\ you can view that post down below.
also made a post back in march, warning everyone about the massive signs of weakness i was seeing.
my projected downside target back then was between 10k~15k, but i've come a long way in this learning journey, so i'm here to say that we will not be seeing 10k.
we could though, get all the way down to 14k as that would be the 123.60% fib extension (aka wave 5 target of wave c) - which would keep our 11 year grand cycle count still in tact.
the bullish invalidation for the 11 year move would be at 13831.41 (via the bitcoin liquid index chart) each exchange varies in price, but i think the blx is the universal chart which matters the most - so let's go with that number.
you don't want to know what would happen to btc if 13831.41 was breached - matter of fact, let's not even talk about it.
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if you press alt + i on your tv chart, you are able to inverse it. i find it much easier to chart downtrends from this perspective - so that is precisely what i did here.
as you can see: wave 3 of wave (a) hit the 1.618% fib extension, wave 4 hit the 0.386% fib retracement, and wave 5 is projected to hit anywhere between 14~18k via the 100%~123.60% fib extension.
this is probably not something any of you want to hear right now, but it is not like i am making this number up, it is simply what the chart tells me as of this evening.
Wave A target = 25k
Wave B target = 43k
Wave C target = 14k.
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BTC - FIB play PART IIHello trader,
Nice week and profitable deals 💲
This BTC 1D chart is a combination of:
1. FIBretracement from 3k low to 64k high
2. FIBretracement from Wave 2 to Wave 3
3. FIBretracement from 64k Top to Wave3
4. 2017 Top
5. FIBextencion from Wave 2 to Wave 4
6. FIBextencion from Wave 2 to Wave 3
7. Pitchfork
Detailed BTC
FIB roadmap
Weekly logscale roadmap II and Fractal
Roadmap 3
I would like to mention that all I post are just options and my own opinion !
Always trade with SL, and do not risk more than 1% of your portfolio (max 3%) per trade.
No trading advice !
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Bitcoin Grand Cycle Ewt Analysisfrom the beginning of time, until today, btc has surprised us all.
that being said, let's talk about what i'm seeing here.
wave 5's tend to end in a nice wedge, or an ending diagonal kinda formation.
the wedge we're currently in is reminiscent of this potential scenario.
we're currently at a critical point in my opinion, and this wedge must hold, otherwise things will get messy very quickly.
this is one of many scenarios that i am seeing, and i am happy to share them all with you guys.
ps. i am not taking anymore crypto trades for awhile, until we get a concrete direction.
BTC - How strong are crypto bulls really? Hello trader,
Good mood and profitable deals 💲
If you're new in the game,and you are interested in my plan🗺️, check out my previous analysis ( link below ) :
BTC-Money on the siding!
BTC welcome to a boring,tricky...
BTC Crypto Hype III - The top is set -618 play !!
Education
Elliott Wave Ratios
Trading psycology
After a panic sell-off, in which all investors with weak nerves threw their shares on the market, a small offer is enough to make prices rise.
It is enough if there are virtually no salespeople left.
This is usually followed by a sharp rise in the price with an extremely thin trading volume.
Because there are only a few buyers because all market participants are simply afraid. In this case, the lack of new sales is practically enough for prices to rise again.
At the moment we are at the top of the triangle, where the 1D MA20 is also. Usually the MA20 is a strong resistance after such a strong sell-off.
Although the triangle is a bearish pattern, I think we are ready to break it.
We can also see that most market participants have closed their shorts and switched to long positions.
So the first step for the bulls is to break the 38.8K. 40-42k and 1D MA200 is the next strong resistance.
Bears should take over again at the latest from 45-47k.
30-27K is a good level to look for a LONG entry in my opinion.
Unfortunately, my english is not so good and I work with google translate, but if you have any questions I will be happy to answer them .
My followers have been making a big ride with me since I posted.🤑
If you are interested to learn privately from my trading ideas,conntact me
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Trade save!!
Bitcoin - No Trade ZoneCurrently, Bitcoin is in a No Trade Zone in my opinion. I don't see a great signal in either direction.
I would like to see BTC move up to somewhere between 45-47k next but could definitely see the possibility of it falling to the 18-20k area just as easily.
When trading, I suspect that most people lose money easily in the midranges where the price action is chopping back and forth without any good signal of where it may go next. There could be many fakes in either direction up or down and the next move may just be an initial 'spring' to get traders offsides before it moves in the opposite direction with greater strength.
I think the safest play at the moment is to wait until the price reaches 45-47k Resistance or 18-20k Support. After that, you may be able to make a much safer and more profitable entry in anticipation of the next move from those levels.
Good luck and happy trading!
Finally towards the 80kI've been waiting for BTC to touch the middle green line for weeks now, closing below it would obviously mean a very sharp drop and a bear season and i doubt that will happen yet so this is very bullish imo, without getting support from that line you really can't go any forward
that's why i didn't believe to the last bounce
but this one is a perfect buying opportunity. We can probably go towards to 70-80k mark now.
BTC decision time soonBTC has been following along it's current trading channel for a while. However it's running out of time for a decision.
Each time BTC tests the upward trending green line, it weakens. I've noticed over the years that the fourth or later attempt is usually when resistance/support fails. However, Bitcoin has already hit support a fourth time and survived (marked by the yellow support arrows on the chart).
The difference is, BTC is running out of time to decide. If it breaks the top green line, BTC will go to new all time highs. If falls below the upward trending green line it will drop down towards previous support levels.
Watch for it to break either green line and trade accordingly.
BTCUSD ~ Correction Continuation Incoming (high probability)After ETH hit a new ATH and BTC didnt even budge, I think what we are looking at is a setup for a major market correction, after which we will see new ATH's across the board in a massive and unprecedented pumps that will take the overall crypto markets to new levels.
We have been expecting BTC to retouch its weekly support MA's for a long time, and it hasnt. Meanwhile those MA's are catching up, but they are still in the 40k's zone.
A healthy correction down to 10W and possibly even 20W MA would setup the entire crypto markets for a very healthy extended bullrun; especially given ETH and ERC-20 tokens recent pump to new ATHs and recovery levels.
Get your long pants ready in the coming days/weeks!
BTCUSD ~ Market Momentum AngleHere I am demonstrating market momentum trajectory in a super simple way where, in fact, you can fully understand market cycles and trend in a likewise super simple way.
Basically think of market momentum and trend as a measurement of the angle above 0 degrees.
Positive trend = positive angle = bull market
Negative trend = negative angle = bear market
Duh....right?
Well one thing you can also do with this is look at how the bull and bear markets are changing pattern.
Because a bear market doesnt just happen overnight. You dont have an positive-65-degree bull market and then tomorrow have a negative-65-degree bear market.
You get small indications where the curve topples over and begins the new trend.
Over the last weeks I believe we have shifted trend in the market.
This means, IMO, we are in an accumulation stage rather than a bull market stage.
Given this accumulation stage is still quite positive angle, I fully believe we are accumulating for another bull run.
You can measure the angle of the accumulation stage we were in before the previous bull run that topped at 62k to see the difference of angle of this accumulation vs previous accumulation as well - another good indicator telling us how shaper the upward angle will be in the next bull run.
EG: If previous angle was 15-degrees accumulation stage, and then resulted in a 45-degree bull run; -- ; and in this phase we are in a 20-degree accumulation stage, that means we should see a 60-degree bull run (sharper upward angle, and much bigger increase % in price).
Another thing is that we did not hit the 20W MA (20 weekly moving average) which we havent hit for many months. BTC and all cryptos, generally want to touch back down on the 20W MA, and the longer the chart stays above or below this line, the stronger the "gravity" pulling it back to it.
However, an accumulation stage would allow the 20W MA to catch up to the price, but it would require a longer accumulation stage to give the 20W MA time it needs to catch up.
One way or another, I believe we have to eventually hit the 20W MA at this middle point of the bull cycle.
So, setting buy orders above and below (hoping for dump panic sell wicks) is always a solid idea. Easiest and best way to "buy the dip".