Copper (XCUUSD): Catching Bearish Wave
hey traders,
I really like copper chart :)
from a technical perspective, we have a very nice conjunction of multiple selling signals.
first of all, on a daily the market is currently standing on a strong structure resistance.
moreover, after a strong bullish rally, the market has perfectly stoped on the underlined level with rsi showing clear divergence.
in addition to that, on a daily we see a completed bearish abcd pattern.
The last thing to short the market is the confirmation on a lower timeframe!
on 4H I am focused on a bearish flag formation.
bearish breakout of it will be a perfect signal to short the market.
the initial target will be 2.75
the second target will be 2.71
stop will be above the highest point within the flag.
Xcuusd (Copper)
Copper: Complete Trading Plan | H&S vs Channel UpCopper (XCUUSD) has been trading inside a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 59.467, MACD = 0.018, ADX = 36.505, Highs/Lows = 0.0586) which touched the Higher High trend line at the end of December. Right now the price is pulling back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) to price a Higher Low.
As long as 2.8500 holds, which is the 1M Symmetrical Resistance, then the Channel Up will most likely price that Higher Low just below the 1D MA50 at 2.7000. With Copper trading on a Head and Shoulders since July 2018, if the Channel Up Higher Low trend line breaks, there are greater chances to re-test the neckline's Support within 2.5500 - 2.5270.
On the other hand, if the 2.8500 Symmetrical Resistance breaks, then that long term Head and Shoulders pattern gets invalidated and we will focus purely on the 1D Channel Up which should set eyes on the 2.9900 Resistance of the Head. In that case (if 2.8500 breaks) we will be switching to a buy with 2.9500 as the Target.
*Note at this point that the (otherwise bullish) Golden Cross formation on the 1D chart has been a bearish signal on the last 2 occasions for Copper since June 2018. On December 27th, 2019 we just formed a new Golden Cross.
See how the Head and Shoulders has provided an excellent buy signal last August:
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Long-Term Prospects of CopperCopper, symbol, HG, price action is giving us an early warning of a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema, which is below both the 200 and 800 week emas, with the 200 still above the 800. Price is currently above the 9/13/30/50 week emas, so it currently is in a rally, but the long term emas are mostly flat, telling us we are in a accumulation/distribution phase. The long term candle sticks tell us to have caution here, with long upper whicks and the dark cloud for this week. Elliott Wave tells us we should be expecting the end of this year and a half long triangle with the e-wave putting in a top.
On the even longer-term perspective, this market is clearly targeting 1.4, where I expect a multi-year bounce. The bounce will proceed prices below 1.25, so let that sink in. Put that out of your mind for Today though, the thing you should be noticing here is how price is drawn to the equilibrium point of prior consolidations. That gives us a good idea of where price will be drawn to as this correction continues.
The Commodity is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 day ema, though the 50 is above the 200, yet still below the 800 day emas. The 50 day ema is currently up trending, though price just dropped down through the 13 ema and tested the 30 ema. We’ve had three pushes up from the (d) – wave low and it looks like at peak formation for the (e) – wave is starting to form. Would expect to see a rally back up to 2.84 next week along with a stop hunt high before a strong sell-off gets under way.
The Commodity is in a Correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, which is above the 800 ema. Price traded down to just above the 200 ema this week, will probably give it another test early next week before aggressively bouncing back up to the highs in order to finish out the peak formation later in the week.
This is my Copper look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
This is my Copper look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
ridethepig | Copper Driving China Capital Flows As you can see the strong relationship Copper has with Chinese equities, you will notice what has been the case for these final stages of the economic cycle, metals have been moving miles ahead of equities.
We got the floor set in Copper as widely expected all year:
Any dips now look competitive:
Copper has been allowed to outperform Gold:
Bulls need to reclaim the highs in Chinese Equities after the -10% leg:
A weaker USD will help reinstate a bullish outlook for Copper, support clearly seen at $2.715, then $2.675 - which I expect to hold.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and as usual jump into the comments with your charts and views to open the conversation up for all!
fcx with another flag.. but ...what about the tariffs?fcx buyers are very excited for the future! has been a good run. but, seems we never really got past phase 0 on the trade deal.. will the tariffs start to become bullish? Harder us pushes maybe quicker we find a solution.. agree to disagree?
Taking a bit off table.. keeping close eye on copper.. who knows how high it may run. has been depressed for so long.. 4? 5? 10?! haha
GOOD LUCK!
Copper: Short opportunity within an Ascending Triangle.Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a 1D Ascending Triangle (RSI = 56.277, MACD = 0.016, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). Last week it was rejected on the 2.7000 1D Resistance and that should make it test at least the 1D MA50 (blue line). In our opinion since the RSI has been consolidating in the past 2 months, the potential pull back can make a Higher Low on the 1D Ascending Triangle so our Target is lower at 2.57000.
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