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Xetra

DAX: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1W. Long term approach.DAX is on a very strong bull run since its December bottom, maintaining the trend on a 1D Channel Up that was recently broken to the upside (RSI = 71.535, MACD = 158.900, Highs/Lows = 203.0988). The index now enters into the overbought zone and the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on 1W suggests that it will approach the 12,460 neckline before any meaningful selling (profit taking) occurs (11,870 the Support). As we see on the chart in the past two years DAX has a tendency of respecting its long term patterns: the 10,200 1M Support contained successfully the 2018 bear market while before that the Head and Shoulders pattern (that led to the ATH) was respected. If you are a long term investor, this chart suits your needs. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
XETR:DAX
by InvestingScope
1
DAX: A quarterly overview.We have seen the current trading set up on DAX during its previous mini bear cycle (April 2015 - February 2016). During that time the index finally broke upwards for the new mini bull cycle once both Lower High trend lines were crossed and held as supports on at least 1 re-test. Currently DAX has broken above the first Lower High trend line (dashed) and has already re-tested it as a support once. Based on the 2015-2016 pattern, one more (lower) test is due and on a quarterly basis this is not unrealistic as the macroeconomic fundamentals have disappointed (PMI, Sales ect) raising economic growth concerns. The market needs some time to digest these data and re-balance the dynamics. Once the upper (bold) trend line breaks and re-tested as support, then the new bull cycle will most likely begin. This perspective suits the needs for long term investors who seek safe and reliable buy entries not for daily traders. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
6
DAX: Sell opportunity on 1D.The index is still on a long term recovery within the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.547, MACD = 106.300, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This time however 4H is on a Lower High sequence with 11,400 supporting this fragile set up. With the price already rejected just below the 11,686 - 11,838 1W Resistance Zone, we are expecting a stronger correction if 11,400 breaks. TP1 = 11,250, TP2 = 11,000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
EUREX:FDXM1!Short
by InvestingScope
DAX: Short opportunity on overbought levels.The index is trading on a 4H Channel Up (RSI = 69.786, MACD = 72.000, Highs/Lows = 56.2642) that has crossed into the overbought zone (STOCH = 95.784, STOCHRSI = 79.387, Williams = -3.343). Since the price is too close to the 11,570 1W Resistance, we will take this opportunity to go short and target the first Support on 1D = 11,300. This is where the 1D Channel Up will meet its median, which if broken, it can seek a Higher Low at 11,100. We will update if we decide to follow it that low. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
EUREX:FDXM1!Short
by InvestingScope
DAX Bear Market Trade, Part 5My previous Dax analysis from 2 months ago: My Dax bear market short trade is still running since earlier this year and today i will take some profits now. We have (almost) reached the target of that H&S already and i am not going to risk 2200 points to get that last 100 points for the 10.500 target. The 10.500 H&S target is the most conservative i can see, so i have decided to take 50% profit at this point of my long term trade. Now my main reason for me doing this, is because it is December. The past 20 years we have never seen a big drop in this month, except for 2015. I actually even though we might not even drop at all the past weeks, but the market is clearly very weak. Another reason for taking partial profit here, is because of that potential big support zone , the green area on the left chart. Third reason, as it happens in all the markets, i think there is a very realistic chance for a bear trap around the current levels. The market is getting slowly more bearish now, so we tend to see retail money short these lows. What do the pro's do, they push the markets up, use their stop loss levels as fuel to push the market up again. Now i can always short it again if i start to see we will not move up, but for now i think there is a reasonable chance for a move towards the 11.500/12.00 again to test former support levels. This would be an ideal spot for me to get back in with that 50% again. My assumption is that we might be able to short it again somewhere in late Jan of 2019. Because i can not be sure of all these assumptions, i am only closing 50% and not 100% of the position. So i don't miss out on my long term trade in case i am wrong for the short term. I have been patiently sitting on my hands the past 2 months, even after we dropped some more when i took 50% profits. There is still a chance that we move higher, like the blue line, but this is a long term trade. In other words, i closed the 50% 500 points lower so i am already in better shape now for doing that. Only if the Dax gets above the 12K, i might adjust my long term trade. I might even increase the short if we go towards the 11.800. But since the Dax' has been very week the past few weeks, i don't think there is a lot of room on the upside there. I have added 25% again and will wait for the other 25% tomorrow morning. Previous analysis: The Analysis where i caught the bear trap The analysis where i called the start of the bear market
TVC:DEU40
by botje11
2
DAX: Channel Up on 1D. Long.The index has been trading within a strong recovery Channel Up on 1D (RSI = 59.688, MACD = 74.500, Highs/Lows = 85.2929, BB/P = 251.0418) since the December bottom. Although the technical target is the 11,550 Resistance and potential Higher High, since the upside is clearly slowing down on a Rising Wedge, it is best to but and settle for a lower TP at 11,400. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
DAX: Symmetrical Channel Up still holding. Bullish.The index managed to maintain the bullish break out above 11,390 and the new 4H Channel Up to stay above the Higher Low limit. As long as the symmetry holds, the short term target should be around the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, before it consolidates the potential overbought status. Our targets are intact: 12,000 & 12,100 in extension. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
DAX: Still within a downtrend but held the Monthly support.The index remains within the very long term 1W Channel Down (RSI = 37.940, MACD = -255.000, Highs/Lows = -398.7857, B/BP = -982.1060) but held the 1M support zone of 11,200 - 11,400 and we can assume that a last week's sideways trade is an attempt to price a support base on the long term in order to continue the 1M Channel Up. 1D is expected to start printing Higher Lows, which will aim at breaking 11,850 to avoid creating an Ascending Triangle. Our medium term TP set remains 12,000 and 12,100.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
1D/ 1W Support test. Awaiting bullish reversal confirmation.A very aggressive 4H Channel Down (oversold RSI = 24.435, Highs/Lows = -199.7643, MACD = -93.500) invalidated the previous attempt to break the 1D Falling Wedge (black dotted lines). DAX should now attempt a test either on the 1D (RSI = 33.688, B/BP = -380.9120) or the 1W (RSI = 40.497) support. The 1D Falling Wedge will be on a Lower Low there and the 1W remains on its massive Head and Shoulders lows, in anticipation of the the new long term bullish leg on the Monthly Chart that will in time make the new All Time Highs on the index. Our target remains intact (TP = 12,420).
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
Target hit. Expecting a minor pull back to buy again.TP = 12,207 hit as the 4H Channel Up (RSI = 69.388, Highs/Lows = 10.3357) aggressively broke to a new Higher High at 12,460 with 1D making at the same time a Lower High on its Channel Down (RSI = 55.850, MACD = -12.700). Since we consider this month's 11,880 bottom the completion of the 1W H&S pattern, we expect DAX to break even higher. However given the fact that On Wednesday the Fed announces the rate decision, a pull back is expected on most stock markets. We will be buying near 12,300 aiming at 12,420. Crossing of this level suggests a breaking of the 1W Channel Down formation and initiates a new uptrend to 12,600 first and 12,760 in extension.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
Bounced near the 1W support. Uptrend already in development. LonDAX has rebounded strongly after hitting the upper layer of the 11,725 - 11,880 1W Support zone and since the long term 1W Head and Shoulders pattern was completed (or at least is near the completion (but less likely) assuming it has one more leg down to 11,725), the index should now resume the commanding bullish long term monthly trend. It already broke the 12,120 Resistance on 4H and previous Lower Low on the 1D Channel Down, having developed a new 4H Channel Up (RSI = 48.807, MACD = 7.900, B/BP = 0.2800) that is now sumply pulling back for a technical 12020 Higher Low. We are going long now with TP = 12,207. As seen by the Resistances though (black dots) the uptred has a long way to go before we can safely say that it has crossed all bearish channels.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
Targets hit. 1W Head and Shoulders completed/Confirmation neededTP = 12,100 hit as the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 31.146, MACD = -146.100, Highs/Lows = -253.3571, B/BP = -407.1202) made a 11,882.0 Lower Low. This was very close to our final 11,877 target so that short has been closed manually. We are now expecting confirmation to short further, which will be validated if the March 26th low = 11,706.5 breaks (in which case TP will be 11,500). Until then, there are more chances to rebound (TP = 12,100 - 12,180) as firstly the Monthly Channel Up is near the Higher Low zone (RSI = 49.305) and secondly the key global indices are near 1D supports.
XETR:DAX
by InvestingScope
2
Target hit. 1D bearish reversal. Short.TP = 12,550 hit as the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 42.259, MACD = -17.900, Highs/Lows = -20.1645, B/BP = -179.2980) made a near 12,600 Lower High. The index has now resumed the downtrend and should attempt at least another 12,100 1D support test. Our initial target is 12,130 and if 12,100 is crossed we will continue with a TP = 11,877 with the SL on profit to ensure the profit. Notice now the price made the 1D Lower High exactly on the blue resistance curve, which on a 1W scale is the right shoulder of the very long term 1W Head and Shoulders formation.
XETR:DAXShort
by InvestingScope
Target hit. Approaching a new Lower High. Long.TP = 12,355 hit as the 12,080 1D support was kept intact and DAX made a Lower Low on its Channel Down (RSI = 46.830, Highs/Lows = 0.000). Currently the price is even above our maximum expectation of 12,400, so attention is required as we approach 12,510. Since the 12,080 support was respected, at least on the short term, the index should technically approach 12,600. We expect to utilize the bullish momentum built on 4H (RSI = 60.708, Highs/Lows = 101.6429) and as a result we are again going long with TP = 12,500 and 12,550 in extension.
XETR:DAXLong
by InvestingScope
Head and Shoulders nearly complete. Wait for confirmation.DAX is about to complete a very long term Head and Shoulders pattern on the Monthly chart, thus the neutral RSI = 51.621, ADX = 29.826. 1D is a Channel Down formation (RSI = 34.363, MACD = -73.300, Highs/Lows = -357.2500, B/BP = -455.2462), which if the 12,080 support from the previous Lower Low breaks, will hit 11,900. If it is rejected, then it will rebound to form a new Lower High near 12,400. We use this support as a break-out confirmation point (crossing = short with TP = 11,900, rejection = long with TP 12,355.
XETR:DAX
by InvestingScope
1
Do you like to play with fire?A high risk movement, although it seems to me that going short at this level is quite risky there is a possibility of success. It seems to me that there is a good chance of touch the level of 11.18 near the 16th of March, or even the historic minimums. But, why does it seem high risk ?. Because we are too close to historical minimums and if that were not enough, at this moment the price is sitting on the R & S, which is usually a very good support, and could cause the price to bounce from here. In case the movement was correct there is a very high chance of a rebound after touching 11.18 and not retesting the historical minimum. This is what I see in the chart, and obviously I'm not giving any kind of advice, just sharing what I think ... let's see how it develops.
XETR:DBK
by normstock
1