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Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/14It was a mix of defensive and cyclical stocks that led the sector list this week. Only three sectors ended the week with gains, while the high growth sectors took the biggest declines. Consumer Staples (XLP) topped the list with Utilities (XLU) in fourth place. Both are defensive sectors for investors. Real Estate (XLRE) was lower in the list but still outperformed the sectors. Financials (XLF) and Materials (XLB) joined Consumer Staples as the only sectors to end the week with gains. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the list. Both contain high growth companies that are likely to be impacted by inflation and potential increases in interest rates. They started to recovery on Thursday and Friday after the US Dollar and Treasury interest rates dropped.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/7It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) were the top four sectors of the week. The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper, Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up. While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks. Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/23The S&P 500 had a slight loss for the week, but there were two sectors that soared despite the market. Real Estate (XLRE) ended the week as the top sector, advancing over 2%. Three factors helped the sector breakout and then stay on top the whole week. The economic recovery is a boon for the real estate industry as occupancy rates climb driving demand and prices higher. Interest rates remain low thanks to the Fed's continued easy money policy, keeping costs low. And in a climate of nervous investors, fearful of new lockdowns around the world, the real estate sector becomes a nice defensive play that has growth potential as well. Healthcare (XLV) was the second best sector of the week. The sector has lagged behind the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Positive earnings reports from UnitedHealth (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) over the past few weeks gave it the momentum needed to catch up with a 1.81% advance this week. The only other sectors that had gains for the week were Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI), both responding positively to great economic recovery news. At the bottom of the sector list were Energy (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Energy stocks continue to underperform as oil prices have been dropping in recent weeks. Consumer Discretionary was a big part of the S&P 500 setting records the previous three weeks and was due to pause or pullback this week. Earnings reports from Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) next week will have a big influence on the sector performance.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/16Utilities (XLU) is surprisingly the top sector for the day. Topping the list on Tuesday and nearing the top of the list on Friday the sector had steady gains throughout the week. The sector is usually a defensive move for investors. Perhaps investors nervousness grew as the S&P 500 has been setting new all-time highs. Less of a surprise is to see Materials (XLB) at the top of the weekly list. The sector is benefiting not only from investments on infrastructure being discussed in Washington, but also a strong housing sector and a surge in building permits. Energy (XLE) had a choppy week, taking the lead on Wednesday, but quickly fading to near the bottom of the list for the weekly. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also had some good days this week, advancing on news of strong retail sales and an advance in consumer credit showing increased spending. The worst performing sector this week was Communications (XLC). There have been some reports of decelerating spending on Internet media and social platforms from retailers. That makes sense as demand is naturally increasing and requires less effort for omnichannel marketing to bring in consumers.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
2
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/5If you kept your eyes only on big tech and growth stocks, you might have missed that many sectors had fairly good advances this week. The sector chart supports the thesis that there is an outsized rotation in progress that is presenting as a correction, but that there is still a level of support in the broader equities market. The top two sectors, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF), never dipped into negative territory even with Thursday's broad sell-off. The other cyclical Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) also performed well for the week. Materials was leading for the week at the end of Tuesday, but backed off a bit later in the week. There was caution visible in the sectors as Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) advanced. Investors moved from sectors that are more exposed to pressures from inflation and higher yields. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were the hardest hit among the sectors. Real Estate (XLRE) is also at the bottom of the list. At center stage is the bond market sell-off that is driving higher yields. Interest rates that are based on the yields will make borrowing costs higher. Add to that fears of higher inflation would bring interest rate adjustments earlier than initially expected. The higher interest rates benefit big banks that drive the Financials sector higher. But it depresses the net present value that was priced into high growth sectors like Technology.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
4
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/26It's a good week to take a close look at the sectors and see how the market moved around during pullbacks in the major indexes. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were joined at the hip, finding themselves at the top of the sector list on Monday and Wednesday and at the bottom of the list on Friday. However the days spent at the top were enough to allow them to end the week in 1st and 2nd place. However, Energy was the only sector that could keep gains to end the week in the positive. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) took a beating throughout the week as investors moved away from these sectors fearing the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. Utilities (XLU) is usually in play when investors are nervous. It showed up at the top of the list on Tuesday and Thursday, but ended the week at the bottom of the list. The cyclical stocks Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) outperformed the SPX for a second week. Along with Energy and Financials, these cyclical sectors were top performers for the whole month of February.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
6
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/19It was a week for the cyclical stocks. Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB), and Industrials (XLI) were the only sectors to close the week with gains. That was not the case for the entire week. Communication Services (XLC) started the week with gains but faded in the last two days. Utilities (XLU) had one day as the leading sector on Thursday, but moved back to the bottom of the list on Friday. Health Care (XLV) was the worst performing sector of the week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/5Energy (XLE) was back on top for the first week of February. The sector benefited from higher than expected demand in oil that also raise crude oil prices throughout the week. Technology (XLK) started the week in the lead, having a strong Monday. The Consumer Discretionary (XLY) took the lead on Tuesday. Financials (XLF) briefly moved to the top spot on Thursday, but was soon passed by Energy again. Health Care (XLV) was at the bottom of the list for the week. Materials (XLB) was the worst performing sector on Thursday, but led the sectors on Friday.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/8Energy (XLE) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics, which doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar. That caused Financials (XLF), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials (XLB) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials (XLI) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate (XLRE) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology (XLK) had the opposite reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials. Also notable is Utilities (XLU) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers for 1/5 and 1/6I normally publish this chart on weekly basis as part of my Week in Review work but I thought it was interesting to look at it today, in the context of the Georgia run-off election results. There is also the turmoil in DC, but that did not seem to impact the sector leaders list (the afternoon dip impacted all equally). Energy (XLE) is leading over the two days, although was in third place for Wednesday. This position is not related to politics, but rather that crude oil prices moved past $50 for the first time since February. A much smaller part of Energy is the solar stocks which will benefit greatly from a Democratic controlled congress and presidency. However, the solar stocks make up a small part of XLE and are not the reason for the sector performance. Materials (XLB) is the next sector on the list. Materials sector will benefit greatly from expected spend on infrastructure in the US. Financials (XLF) was the winner on Wednesday, as yields on treasury bonds rose, bringing higher interest rates that will benefit banks. Industrials (XLI) got a boost from both the outlook for infrastructure spend, but also the promise of more stimulus that would easily pass through congress and signed by the president. The sectors that did not fair well with the news included Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) which both include "big tech" names that are likely to take a hit from higher bond yields. Similarly Real Estate (XLRE) will incur higher costs due to the higher interest rates.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
2
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/18The sectors took on a character we have not seen for some time. Technology (XLK) is back to leading the sectors for this week. Helped by a number of breakouts in technology growth stocks, some of those fueled by speculation in security stocks following a wide and troublesome security breach that impacted both the government and private sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) came in second, after very briefly passing Technology on Wednesday morning. Retail Sales data and Santa Claus are likely the reasons for the great performance. Materials (XLB) also performed well on Building Permits and New Housing Starts data that came in better than expected. The big loser for the week was Energy (XLE). This is after five weeks of leading the sector list. Despite vaccine availability and positive oil prices giving it a boost midweek, the nervous sentiment caused by new lockdowns worldwide have put downward price pressure on the sector.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
FCX in correlation with XLB DividendHistorically NYSE:FCX has been bearish the week of or week leading into AMEX:XLB dividend. Shown here is its support and resistance, movement this summer, along with selloff in correlation to XLB dividend dating back to Dec 20, 2019. Materials and metals have popped this year with AMEX:GLD taking charge earlier this summer. FCX has beat earnings expectations all year and that if that trend could continue FCX could see more upside. After a strong finish to the week, I like FCX for to make a quick turnaround going into October along with SLV and other materials, as I believe can still serve as a strong hedge as we near elections.
NYSE:FCXLong
by crawfordpaul
So Goes the Consumer, So Goes the Economy?My two most favorite indicators (RSI+MACD; not too crazy) just broke their monthly trends. I think consumption data should be followed more closely in the next quarter to provide us with reassurance that the consumer remains strong. Watch unemployment to remain contained, sentiment remain broadly positive - Umich, NFIB smallbus, OECD CEO - and that Homebuilder data continues this recent acceleration and wasn't just a one-off very strong month for NAHB, permits, & starts. - RH
AMEX:XLY
by RHTrading
EPISODE 6/11: US MATERIALS- WAVE 5 RANGE+CYCLE ANALYSIS (XLB TA)Episode 6/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart : Wave Extension 1.618 target reached 64.34 (based on length of drop from 2009). Sin lines represent the stages of the cycle(it can't always overlap perfectly). Current bullish channel recovery since the drop that happened at the end of 2018 seems weak . This is in comparison to other sectors. Based on the assumption that Trump wins 2020 and/or US/China Trade deal goes through => I have labelled the ranges of potential wave 5 extension. There are 2 primary targets : 70$ and 75$. Otherwise, there aren't many indications that the current top at 64.4 would be broken. This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research. >> I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories .>> However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! -Step_Ahead_ofthemarket- Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors : EPISODE 5: US INDUSTRIALS (XLI) : EPISODE 4 : Health Care( XLV ) : Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
AMEX:XLB
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Sector rotation Cyclical to Defensive I heard some interesting commentary this week from the pros about watching for signs in the cyclical:defensive sector ratio. I put together this chart using (XLK+XLI+XLB)/(XLP+XLU+XLV). It is a composite of tech, industrials and materials indexes as a ratio to staples, utils and health sector indexes. The chart ratio is about 1:1 right now. In a late stage economy if earnings expectations plunge in the cyclicals the chart ratio should show the capital rotation into the defensive sectors. Worth watching for a signal!
AMEX:XLK
by dime
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: HAND SIT ON PREMIUM SELLINGAlthough VIX finished the week above the low volatility environment zone (<15) at 16.48, not much is enticing here from a premium selling standpoint at first glance. Earnings announcements are now down to a trickle, with the next quarter's announcements coming into range in the May cycle, militating in favor of putting on earnings-related volatility contraction plays closer to announcement since implied will in all likelihood expand running into them. ASHR (50/29), GDXJ (44/27), GDX (35/24), TLT (36/10), XLB (33/19) round out the top five exchange-traded funds sorted by rank; EWZ (12/38), XOP (26/32), OIH (27/32), ASHR (50/29), and USO (14/28) when sorted by 30-day implied, all below the >50/35 metrics I like to see out of these to put plays on, although I will continue to sell a bit of XOP premium here, since it's 30-day implied is nearly twice that of SPY's at the moment: the May 17th 30 short straddle's paying 2.99 (.75 at 25% max), nearly 10% of the Friday close share price of 30.06. On the majors end of the stick: SPY (28/16), QQQ (23/20), DIA (22/17), and IWM (19/21) -- all at the low end of their 52-week volatility ranges.
AMEX:ASHR
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: AA, NFLX EARNINGS; USO, GDX, XLB, EEM, IWMWith broad market volatility ramping up over the past week here (see VIX, VXN, RVX), premium sellers can afford to be picky here, since the board is alight from here to Sunday with implied volatility ranks in the 70's for ... well ... a ton of stuff. For earnings, my eye is on AA and NFLX with nearly ideal rank/implied metrics for volatility contraction plays. NFLX (rank 64/implied 61), a perennial earnings-related volatility contraction fave, announces earnings on Tuesday after market close. Due to its size and its having a tendency to move bigly around earnings, I would go defined: the November 16th 285/290/385/390 is paying 1.87 with a buying power effect of 3.13; a ten-wide with the same short strikes, 3.53, with a buying power effect of 6.47. AA, announcing on Wednesday after market close: 93/52. In my mind, small enough to go full on naked: the November 16th, 71% probability of profit 31/40 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 50% max take profit of .86; the at-the-money skinny, quasi short-straddle -- the 35/36, 3.78, with a 25% take profit of .95. Alternatively, it's been somewhat hammered here and is within 5% of 52-week lows which may make it suitable for a bullish assumption play: the 32/39/40 Jade Lizard is paying 1.00 on the nose with no upside risk and a low side break even of 31, a 13% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. On the non-earnings front: the top five funds in terms of implied volatility rank are USO (81/30), GDX (71/32), XLB (68/27),* EEM (66/27),** and IWM (63/26); the top five ranked by 30-day implied: EWZ (58/44), UNG (36/41),*** XOP (52/36), OIH (56/36), and GDXJ (60/34). * -- Possible bullish assumption directional; new 52-week low. ** -- Possible bullish assumption directional candidate: new 52-week low. *** -- Possible bearish assumption directional candidate: new 52-week high.
NYSE:AA
by NaughtyPines
'Set It And Forget It' Trade In XLBXLB (Materials ETF) has been consolidating for weeks and looks like it's getting ready to make a move higher. With Squeezes on both the Weekly and Daily Chart this looks like a 'set it and forget it' type trade: In a perfect world, I'll be looking for a pullback tomorrow where I can pick up the 58/57 Put Credit Spread: Put Credit Spread Sell 58 Jan Monthly Put Buy 57 Jan Monthly Put At the current price, you can nearly get a 1x1 spread is what I like doing. In this case (once again at the current closing price) risking $51 to make $49/contract. This is a trade I want to be able to put on and not have to worry about too much. Ideally, the trade will be near max profit far before the contracts expire. If you'd prefer to play an underlying, you can also trade DWDP which makes up 22% of the ETF. It too has a Weekly Squeeze setting up and its chart looks nearly identical to XLB: Playing the ETF is just an easy way to play to movement of the entire sector which as a whole looks bullish. With the ETF you're less susceptible to things like news based moves that can affect an individual stock without affecting the entire sector.
AMEX:XLBLong
by TheCryptosaurusRex