XLE Head and Shoulders Failure Weekly TimeframeXLE is looking strong and should continue up. The Red line just above the Blue line is this weeks first resistance. The Blue line would be considered next weeks resistance if XLE can not test this week.
XLE
XLE Energy Play?Energy broke out, set a limit order at the 100day moving average and try to ride the wave up.
$XLE Golden Cross$XLE Golden Cross on the 1hr chart. Oil on the rise. Expect to see mid 70s+ in very near term.
Watching for OIL bounceOil within recent uptrend. Looking for a reversal here for the next week or two. Playing this via refinery and oil producer stocks
ATH.ca Athabasca oil (TSX)Another canadian energy company setting up for a potential trend. Broke the recent few month downtrend. Once the price gets above 1.40 this could be a very strong trend.
LONG BIR.ca (TSX)Some interesting set ups in canadian energy including this double bottom. BIR.ca in particular is sitting around the same prices it was at when oil was under 30. Possibly some big value plays if oil can stay above 60 or continue uptrend and even get above 70
OPENING: XLE JULY 20TH 67 LONG/APRIL 27TH 71 SHORT CALL DIAGONAL... for a 3.14/contract debit (78.5% width of spread).
Another neutral to bullish assumption setup with plenty of time to reduce cost basis. Currently, it looks like you could get a better fill than I did (mid currently at 3.00, 75% of the width of the spread, which is what you're looking for in these setups).
Here, I'm shooting for 20% of what I put the trade on for.
Metrics:
Max Profit: .86/contract*
Max Loss: 3.14/contract
Theta: .37
Delta: 32.33
* -- Assuming no rolls of the short call and finish of the underlying above the short call strike at expiry.
** -- Assuming no rolls of the short call and finish of the underlying below the long call strike at expiry.
Retest and breakoutWLL seems to be breaking higher today! If above 30 very constructive for further strength.
Bearish: Energy Sector testing major $67 support levelTraders have reacted to this $67 level since June 2017 and now being tested as support. Intraday it's been broken many times but look for a break below to continue lower to $64 and $62 targets.
DXY Collapse Leads to Commodity RallyLooking like the dollar crossing the daily trend line is a failed rally. More down side to come in the very very near future.
USOIL Trend AnalysisIt would appear that the intermediate term trend is going through an ABC correction.
Supply Zone exists in the $53.50-$57 range
Long Term Price Support exists at $54
50% Fibonacci retracement exists at $54
Measured Move exists at $55
Channel Resistance exists at $62
Long(er) Term Price Resistance exists at $63
Short Term trend bearish
I'll go long when I hear "NEW BEAR MARKET FOR OIL?" on the news
Bounce Monday set upWell, at least not all sectors in out right sell mod coming into Monday. There is some hope the accelerated down trend will take a reprieve. I did for get to show XLF and XLB. They both are still lagging other indices. Bottom line XLU, XLK and XLE looking better. XLY, XLI, and XLV ugly. IWM looks best for a trend reversal Monday.
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Oil Bounce PlayWe've gotten some good price action around the 63.45 area. A close above the downtrend resistance line and this becomes a longer term Bull play. It's important to wait for a confirmed "Bullish Reversal Candle". I'm expecting a bit more downside before this Long play plays out.
Happy trading,
Charles
Crude $45 by April/May 2018Revising my $69-70 target down to $65-66.
My Original idea from July 17 - was Crude would reach 69-70 by late Spring early Summer.
Strangle on XLE (58% probability)With the strong move to the upside, I am betting that we are starting a new auction between 78 and the 71 levels. So with an Implied volatility Rank of 37, I sold a Strangle at the 30 deltas for a $1.36 credit. As long as the price stays between $78.35 and $71.65, we will be making money.
The Trade:
Short 73 Puts
Short 77 Calls
Credit $1.36 per contract
58% Probability of profit
Long XLE & Long Energy for 2018Long term bear flag but it should rally til Q2 or end of 2018 before heading down.
Some other energy names that I longed already broken out to the upside. Energy stocks are going to outperform oil in 2018.
