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XLF

AAPL/MFST Key Resistance for $QQQ. XLF Houly Bullflag, 25BPS- 7.5% move on QQQ/NASDAQ in 4 days. AAPL and MSFT now hitting key resistance, will be watching to see if it can break above or not for QQQ to continue. - likely a slight pullback hourly consolidation for QQQ before attempting another leg up. - after ECB hiked 0.5% this morning our rate hike of 25Bps increased to 80% chance this morning. - XLF hourly bullflag still possible need to see bulls show up and hold above 0.382 fib - as long as hourly trend is intact for the bulls on QQQ / SPY / SPX there is no red flag at all for the bulls.
AMEX:XLFLong
by ArcadiaTrading
PPI, XLF No Bear follow through, Rate Hikes, QQQ Lead Bull- PPI data came in better then expected increasing the likelihood of a pause to 50-60% - XLF gapped down new lows but closed around cash open area, meaning there wasnt a lot of bear follow through after the gap down. The first sign bulls want to see is XLF holding its lows and start to bounce or even just going sideways is good for tech bulls. Bears want to see new lows. - QQQ lead bull held up the SPY. making 15m higher lows each time while SPY was making new lows in the end afternoon once XLF started bouncing just even a little bit you saw both SPY and NASDAQ had a nice rip higher. - Looking for SPY to form its daily uptrend then i would be playing on the bull side for swings on TQQQ or SPXL, for now im still scalping day trades and going all cash before end of the day. - Next FOMC meeting is going to be a lot more key then any other previous ones to see if Powell actually pauses or hike 0.25BPS even if he hikes 0.25 we still want to see what he say in his speeches is he going to say this is the last hike and we are pausing after this 0.25.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ArcadiaTrading
Bank of America (BAC) Shows Bearish Elliott Wave SequenceBank of America (BAC) shows a lower low bearish sequence from 1.10.2022 high favoring further downside in the stock. Near term, cycle from 2.8.2023 high is in progress as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Down from 2.8.2023 high, wave 1 ended at 33 and rally in wave 2 ended at 34.56 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The stock resumes lower in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 32.8 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 33.15. Stock resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 30.08 and wave ((iv)) ended at 30.81. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 28.92 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Wave 4 rally ended at 31.50 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 31.04 and wave ((b)) ended at 29.95. Third leg wave ((c)) ended at 31.50 which completed wave 4. Stock resumes lower in wave 5 with internal as a diagonal. Down from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 28.10 and wave ((ii)) ended at 31.05. Wave ((iii)) ended at 27.87 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 30.57. Expect the stock to end wave ((v)) of 5 soon and this should complete cycle from 2.8.2023 as wave (1). Afterwards, stock should rally in wave (2) to correct cycle from 2.8.2023 high before the decline resumes. As far as pivot at 34.56 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swings for further downside.
NYSE:BAC
by Elliottwave-Forecast
PPI Data, Rate Hikes, QQQ / SPX Support and Resistance- CPI data came in expected today, excpet core is 0.1% hotter market didn't really care since we need something really hot to not get a 0.25bps - PPI data likely will come in expected as well today, since CPI was pretty aligned so technical matter more now - SPX came close to 200 MA today rejected the 3940 area but QQQ is above 200 MA - QQQ and SPX reject resistance at the same time - QQQ broke 294.5 support (yesterdays triple top resistance) in the afternoon and bears didn't follow through bulls V shaped into close - KRE and XLF both still in daily bear flag territory. KEY QQQ & SPX BOTH is still under resistance even though we V shaped we closed right under it, so still in the chop range, I am neutral now yesterday i was bull lean and played the bull move this morning as i mentioned when we broke the triple top resistance at 294.5 QQQ I am going long. Now at this range its anyone's game since there are both bear thesis and bull thesis that are both correct at these levels. currently all cash took profit this morning likely scalping depending on which side we break tomorrow.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ArcadiaTrading
2
You decide - SVB Financial collapse - who is to blame?A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge (payers swaps were clearly needed) -SVBs management – In the past 8 months SVB had no risk manager - fortune.com - no one knows how they efficiently managed risk -SVBs management – the accounts showed they held $91b of its $120b securities in its HTM (assets Held to Maturity) book – these are assets they intend to hold until maturity but the accounting rules detail, that they don’t need to mark-to-market the moves in the underlying and report the ballooning losses – which again were not hedged. -SVB deposit mix - 93%+ were above the FDIC insurance limit – this makes depositors v sensitive to any capital concerns at the bank -SVB deposit mix - VCs had a rapid cash burn, as projects they back are typically driven by changes in interest rates (think Net Present value and Internal rates of return) – depositors took cash off SVB’s balance sheet to fund operations – SVB subsequently had to sell assets as their liabilities fell – we then see realised losses from buying securities at much higher prices. -Short sellers/investor base – shorts had an eye on unrealised losses from the worsening asset quality for weeks – the selling accelerated when the CEO/CFO/CMO disclosed they’d sold a chunk of stock on 27 March – it was over when the SVB took a $1.8b hit on its AFS securities available for sale on Wednesday – management sold $21b of its $28b book and announced a $2.25b in equity/debt raising - investors knew with conviction that depositors were fleeing – who supports a raising when liabilities are falling – no one sensible, raising pulled -The Fed - failing to know such a shift in rates would impact banks asset quality when its primary function is financial stability. -Regulation - Basel 3 - banks being forced to buy govt paper against deposits - v low risk weighting (perhaps required a hedge Hard to pinpoint this on one aspect IMO - I think there is a perfect storm going on – a lack of hedging of interest rate risk was clearly a dominant factor behind this. Top down this is a function of rapidly tightening monetary policy and the impact this had on both the asset quality and liability side of the balance sheet – we should recall SVBs model is not the same as others in the banking space, so its hard to say this is systemic – still we wait for the outcome on next steps on how deposits over $250k will be dealt with – we’re hearing they may get 50% back initially but a buyer would be the best solution The issue for regional/smaller banks comes if is we see some sort of haircut on the deposits claim over $250k – that could see a loss of confidence in holding deposits with other smaller banks names – we shall hear more soon, but broad contagion through the financial system seems unlikely, but it is a possibility given nearly 1/3 deposits in the banking system are uninsured – any bank with a large asset base and low equity are in the spotlight As said Friday this could be a nothing burger or have real impactions on economics - the big issue happens this week if we see no clarity on how depositors are dealt (seems unlikely) with and we get a hot CPI print
Editors' picks
AMEX:KRE
by Pepperstone
31
TZA Long, IWM Short due to weakness in XLF & SPY- Very notable drop in the last 3 days for all sectors. Most important factor to remember is always following the trend and dont try to fight against it. Even though today there was a lot of opportunity in both direction it was quite a choppy day. - I mentioned yesterday any pop bullish on premarket data will be a good short for all sectors and i will be getting in too. - Took a decent 6100 shares position in TZA which is leverage 3x ETF for IWM short. - SPY and QQQ now below 200 daily MA. - Very oversold on multiple time frames would like to play a bounce Monday when we have all time frames oversold at a same time, ideally a gap down Monday for a bonuce play. - All trends still favor the bears expect we are still in a weekly uptrend, SPY approaching that weekly support very soon.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
SIVB Meltdown- Canary in the Coal mind?Today we saw a systemic risk in the financial sector. The regional banks were hit extremally hard and as a result the Major banks saw sell side liquidation. Where there's one cockroach, there's usually another. Risk in the banking sector is the worst type of risk investors can ask for. Credit liquidity crisis is not something to mess around with. SIVB looks like its in serious trouble potentially being exposed to fraudulent crypto loans that will likely default as well as failed speculative startups in the tech and health care space.
S
by Trading-Capital
$IBKR forms weekly shark pattern NASDAQ:IBKR may be one of the leaders of this sector. Back in February of 2022, the relative strength ration with AMEX:XLF showed a bullish divergence against the stock's price; soon after, the stock bottomed and since has rallied +50%. The $80 level is key and the price has formed a shark pattern near it. As the stock is in an uptrend, I'll wait for the breakout above $83.20. For a daily analysis, please refer to the link I left of one of the analysts that I follow closely.
NASDAQ:IBKRLong
by dpuleo19
SOX UpdateI have no problem with bold predictions, reversals I do well. SOX has historically led out of the gates on reversals. SOX has broken the downtrend, and successfully tested a Gartley retrace. While we still have an Ichy cloud resistance overhhead, I believe the market bottom is in. Will there be another selloff? Likely. However, I believe a new market bottom lower than the October low in SPY is unlikely. We also have financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) showing a similar trend reversal. So lets pull for more green shoots.
NASDAQ:SOXLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
PFG Bull flag I own some in my portfolio. Nice long bull trend. Bull flag is a continuation pattern in a long uptrend. The way I play a bull flag like this is to buy when the stock breaks out of the upper flag channel (above 92.53). Stop at 90.70 (C). A breakout would take PFG on to test prior high at (B) 96.17, at which point it would either breakout to new highs or repel backward to form a double top. A bull target on a flag like this would be a 1.618 extension to 99.46 (D). P&L & W/L: Buy at 92.53, Stop 90.70; take profit at (B) 96.17. Max win: 3.93% Max Loss: 1.98%. W/L: 2 to 1 Buy at 92.53, Stop 90.70; take profit at (D) 99.46. Max win: 7.5% Max Loss: 1.98%. W/L: 3.78 to 1 XLF (financials) sector has shown some bullishness, and PFG is a financial which has bucked the bear. A bull flag like this has shwon a 66% chance of continuation in a bull. (rarely reverses). But heed the stops just in case. Always be aware of the round benchmark numbers ($100)-- they can be stubborn to break through.
NASDAQ:PFGLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
1