Sector Winners and Losers for 1/5 and 1/6I normally publish this chart on weekly basis as part of my Week in Review work but I thought it was interesting to look at it today, in the context of the Georgia run-off election results. There is also the turmoil in DC, but that did not seem to impact the sector leaders list (the afternoon dip impacted all equally).
Energy (XLE) is leading over the two days, although was in third place for Wednesday. This position is not related to politics, but rather that crude oil prices moved past $50 for the first time since February. A much smaller part of Energy is the solar stocks which will benefit greatly from a Democratic controlled congress and presidency. However, the solar stocks make up a small part of XLE and are not the reason for the sector performance.
Materials (XLB) is the next sector on the list. Materials sector will benefit greatly from expected spend on infrastructure in the US.
Financials (XLF) was the winner on Wednesday, as yields on treasury bonds rose, bringing higher interest rates that will benefit banks.
Industrials (XLI) got a boost from both the outlook for infrastructure spend, but also the promise of more stimulus that would easily pass through congress and signed by the president.
The sectors that did not fair well with the news included Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) which both include "big tech" names that are likely to take a hit from higher bond yields. Similarly Real Estate (XLRE) will incur higher costs due to the higher interest rates.
XLI
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/30It was a long painful week for all the sectors with the overall S&P 500 index losing -5.64%, worst since March of this year.
Utilities (XLU) topped the list of sectors "only" losing -3.66% and remained as the safe place for investors to go to stay into equities instead of the alternatives.
There were certainly days that each sector had to shine, but as far as the week-to-date performance, there was not a lot of back and forth as the days progressed in the weekly list of sector winners/losers.
Most sectors beat the overall S&P 500 index.
The exception is Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI). Consumer Discretionary just barely beat out Industrials to be the week's loser at a -6.55% loss.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/16It was a back and forth week with Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU) and Energy (XLE) all fighting for the top spot. Even Industrials (XLI) made a late effort to end the week at the top.
In the end, the safe haven of Utilities (XLU) won the week as investors fled more volatile stocks for something that everyone needs going into the winter. Heat!
Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) drove the early week gains in the market. But they could not hold on to the lead, nor could they keep the market in it's upward rally. Both faded throughout the week as did the major indexes.
Energy (XLE) had a couple good runs through out the week as crude oil prices rose on news that the national supply was lower than expected. Low supply means demand is returning and higher prices. That's good news for the big energy companies, but ultimately investors took profits at the end of the week.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was doing well early in the week thanks to Apple's (AAPL) breakout on rumors of a new phone. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is exactly what happened as Apple and XLY pulled back after the new phone was confirmed.
Nothing like the soft comforting warmth of having your money in Utilities (XLU). Maybe I should try that.
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Dow /YM Potential breakout on IndustrialsThe Dow is lagging our other indices in our tech-heavy environment. Technicals are ripe for a play. 27900 28020 & 28400 resistance range. Bullish pattern setup with inverted h&s and hugging the downtrend breakout. Potentially an ascending triangle forming-- Let's see if the bulls can break up. Play break out or short the rejection.
Institutional Sneak Attack on XLII spotted some very high volumes coming in right at the end of market close and during after hours trading on XLI. Massive volumes = institutional traffic. However, price levels didn't actually move much until late into AH trading, when a tiny amount of volume (orders totaling 102 only) did a gap up in price to $63.88. This suggests a gap up breakout could occur, but this also feels heavily manipulated, so be careful here. I wanted to raise awareness of this movement and will be closely monitoring XLI on Monday.
WM - Cleaning Up The GarbageXLI is a sector that has recently broken out, looking within that sector, WM seems to be showing some bullish potential. The stock is trying to successfully bounce off a test of the 200-day EMA line. Any continued strength will push the price back above the 10-day EMA line. The stock is also exiting an oversold condition.
I am targeting the $115 & the $120 price levels as they are the 100% & 161.8% Fibonacci Extension levels.
Short $MYEThesis: With growth and inflation decelerating (Quad4) and our leading indicators slowing as well that means we want to be short Industrials. Within the Industrials sector the Rubber & Plastics industry was reporting contraction via ISM data. After screening for P/E and style factors like High Beta coupled with a strong long term price trend we added $MYE to our watchlist. $MYE (Myers Industries, Inc.) manufactures a diverse range of polymer products for industrial, agricultural, automotive, commercial, and consumer markets. Myers Industries is a leader in the manufacturing of plastic reusable material handling containers and pallets, and plastic fuel tanks. Other principal product lines include plastic storage and organization containers, rubber tire repair products and custom plastic and rubber products. $MYE is also the largest distributor of tools, equipment and supplies for the tire, wheel and under vehicle service industry in the United States. The distribution products range from tire balancers and alignment systems to valve caps, tire repair tools and other consumable service supplies.
EPISODE 5/11: US INDUSTRIALS-BULLISH CHANNEL + STRUCTURAL XLI TAEpisode 5/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of July 2019
Brief Explanation of the chart:
Squares represent past and future structural supports . Since 2009, the bulls have used Monthly MA 50(Weekly 200) support , labelled as the purple line .
The latest bullish channel leading to wave 5 can have 3 potential targets : 85$, 94.5$ and least likely 100$.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>> I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories .>>
However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated !
-Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors:
EPISODE 4 : Health Care (XLV)
EPISODE 3: TECH (XLK)
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
Sector rotation Cyclical to Defensive I heard some interesting commentary this week from the pros about watching for signs in the cyclical:defensive sector ratio.
I put together this chart using (XLK+XLI+XLB)/(XLP+XLU+XLV).
It is a composite of tech, industrials and materials indexes as a ratio to staples, utils and health sector indexes.
The chart ratio is about 1:1 right now.
In a late stage economy if earnings expectations plunge in the cyclicals the chart ratio should show the capital rotation into the defensive sectors.
Worth watching for a signal!
The Most Important Stock in U.S. Equity Markets - BoeingThe market's are being influenced by a single stock. How? Well there are linkages and arbitrage opportunities between the big Indices --> SPY, DIA, QQQ
What does this mean? This means that if you can make the Dow go up, you can make the S&P go up. If you can make the S&P go up, you can make the Q's go up and vice versa. Can you give me an example? Sure, the fact that there are high frequency shops that capitalize on this is enough for me, but I'll do better; How about the fact that you never see a day where the S&P is up 1% and the QQQ or Dow is down 1%?
Next: Structure of how the Dow is priced.
It's different than the S&P and QQQ, these are both market-cap weighted. DIA is Price weighted. Boeing is a monstrosity inside of the Dow.
It's a $425 stock. The next biggest is UNH @$267, MMM @$209, GS @$196
It's all about Boeing.
Why Boeing?
(I have to give credit to DataTrek for coming up with this research and all of the tremendous data they come out with:)
- Boeing is up 31% YTD and 45% from it's lows. It's low in December was 58 days ago. 45% in 58 Days
- Boeing is 11% of the Dow
- Boeing is 2.4x more influential than AAPL and 3.9x that of MSFT, AMZN and GOOG aren't even close
> Point: Move Boeing and you can move the entire marketplace
- Boeing's 10.9% weight has contributed 776 points to the Dow in 2019
- That contribution is more than the next 4 names combined - GS (225 points), IBM (177 points), UTX (157 points), HD (133 points) = 692 points
- These 5 names are responsible for 56% of the Dow's gains YTD.
> Point: Boeing is directly responsible for 30% of the Dow's gains YTD.
> Bigger Point: BA is the most influential stock in the marketplace. If you can move the Dow you can move the S&P's.
SPY is up 8% YTD.
It's up 19.11% from it's low on Dec 24th @ $234.34 + $44.8 (in 58 days)
Why does this concern me? Well there's net outflows in the SPY YTD. I think smart money is potentially selling into this move and covering it up by driving order flow into one stock.
ETF Fund Flows;
www.etf.com
My max upside on Boeing is $454.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone and best of luck to ya next week gentlemen
- RH
Don't Be A (High) Beta, Brah! $XLI $XLUI have been a huge component of growth slowing, and the cyclical/defensive proxy of XLI/XLU is a clear indicator that the growth outlook is mixed at best.
Not only that, you might be a beta (probably the bad kind). When you see both growth and inflation slowing on a rate of change basis on the back drop of higher volatility, you must always look to long low beta, short high beta (see Don't Be A MoMo ).
From today's Parallax Weekly:
Cyclical v Defensive (XLI/XLU) is hovering around a 11-month low. This is another indicator of slowing growth as cyclical revenue and earnings are heavily reliant on economic activity. This is also a high v low beta trade. The 3-year monthly beta 1.05 v .05. Since October 1, XLI is down 11.58 percent opposed to a 3.59 percent gain for XLU over the same period.
On a relative basis, XLU has outperformed XLI by 15.17 percent. And those long Bitcoin are missing that.
Industrial Production Leading Silver LowerThe industrial proxy peaked in early 2018 along with silver prices. It has ebbed and flowed, but the trend is obvious. Much of this has to due with China's economy rapidly slowing down. Even the state-run manufacturing PMI is about to dip below 50 into contraction while data from SpaceKnow suggests China's manufacturing sector is already below that 50 threshold.
U.S. industrial production peaked last October.
The 20-day correlation between silver and the industrial proxy is .56; the 20-week is .77.
The intermediate TACVOL range for silver is 17.41/13.30 and currently trading at $14.02. The score is -1.33 indicating in bearishness but not poised for a major inflection point.
There is a slight caveat: silver's volatility has slammed traders since mid-October. The VXSLV (SLV volatility) is currently 22.30 with a TACVOL range of 22.11/16.00.