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XLK

THE WEEK AHEAD: AAPL, UAAEarnings AAPL announces Tuesday after market close Aug 11th 142/157.5 20-delta short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $191/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 140.09/159.41 (wide of 1 standard deviation on both sides) Theta: 19.34 Delta: .79 Aug 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5 20-delta iron condor Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $115/contract* Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $385/contract Break Evens: 140.85/158.65 (at 1 standard deviation, both sides) Theta: 7.34 Delta: .56 * -- Paying less than one-third the width of the wings. UAA announces earnings Tuesday before market open Aug 11th 19.5 short straddle Probability of Profit: 58% Max Profit: $221/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 17.29/21.71 (between expected move and 1 standard deviation, both sides) Theta: 8.82 Delta: -4.03 Aug 11th 15.5/19.5/19.5/23.5 iron fly Probability of Profit: 53% Max Profit: $199/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $201/contract Break Evens: 17.51/21.49 (at expected move, both sides) Theta: 5.11 Delta: .05 Broad Market Exchange Traded Funds QQQ currently has the highest background implied volatility, followed by IWM, SPY, and DIA. QQQ Sept 15th 136/149 20-delta short strangle Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $177/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 134.23/150.77 (Wide of 1 standard deviation on the put side; between the expected and 1 standard deviation, call side) Theta: 4.62 Delta: -2.01 QQQ Sept 15th 133/136/149/151 20-delta iron condor Probability of Profit: 60% Max Profit: $73/contract* Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $227/contract Break Evens: 135.27/149.73 (at 1 standard deviation on the put; between expected and 1 standard on the call) Theta: 1.08 Delta: -3.78 * -- Paying less than one-third the width of the widest wing.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by NaughtyPines
AMD Long Earnings PlayWe have the thought that AMD is selling the shovels to the cryptocurrency rush. With that being the case, their performance within their GPUs have been able to be a stand out product within the industry. We think this quarter will be a special shiner because of the reduction in inventory. One thing to keep a definite read on is what is said by AMD during the conference call regarding GPU sales and keeping up with demand, as well as guidance for the next quarter to the rest of the full fiscal year if stated. The taking on of Intel is a very good move in our opinion and appreciate that they're taking advantage of diversifying their business at the hand of someone else leaving a market behind to pursue another (AI technology with Nvdia). Alden Investment publications are only meant for viewing pleasure and not to be taken in as financial advice or anything related to such.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by AldenInvestments
THE WEEK AHEAD: (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT) -- XLK, QQQ SETUPSWith this holiday foreshortened trading week, premium selling pickings remain slim. The vast majority of underlyings with 52-week >70 implied volatility rank are in stocks that are ramping up for earnings -- e.g., QCOM (71) with earnings in 15, MSFT (79) (16 days), AAPL (75) (21). In that case, you might as well wait to look at those closer to announcement to see whether they are worth a play, rather than diving in here and falling victim to volatility expansion. On the non-earnings front, two broad sector or index exchange-traded funds stick out -- XLK and QQQ, with the former having a 52-week implied volatility rank of 67 and background implied volatility of 19; the latter, rank -- 65, background -- 20. Possible XLK Setups Aug 18th 52/57 short strangle Max Profit: $106 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: ~ 1 SD, both sides Theta: 1.99 Delta: 7.87 Aug 18th 54 short straddle Max Profit: $281 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: Between expected and 1 SD put side, at expected call side Theta: 2.79 Delta: -10.71 Aug 18th 50/54/55/58 "near" iron fly Max Profit: $203 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $197 Break Evens: ~ Expected, both sides Theta: 1.35 Delta: -3.45 Notes: I excluded the 20 delta iron condor because it just didn't look "worth it." The "near" iron fly I widened to put a strike between the put and call sides to get break evens around the expected move. Possible QQQ Setups Aug 18th 126/129/142/144 iron condor Max Profit: $86 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $214 Break Evens: Between expected and 1 SD put side, expected on call side Theta: 1.22 Delta: -1.72 Aug 18th 129/142 short strangle Max Profit: $219 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 1 SD put side, between expected and 1 SD, call Theta: 5.57 Delta: .70
NASDAQ:QCOM
by NaughtyPines