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XLK

ROTATION FROM 'GROWTH' TO 'DEFENSIVE' OVER LAST 10 DAYSCHART DISPLAYS LAST 30 DAYS Utilities ($XLU) outperforming the broader market as represented by ($SPY) and growth oriented, tech based, sub-sector ($XLK) over the last 30 days. This has a correlation with an increased 'potential' for instances of heightened, near term (2 to 4 weeks) market volatility. During the recent selloff we can see that the 'bids' did not push the broader market as represented by ($SPY) or the S&P 500 tech sector ($XLK) back over its pre-selloff top. On the other hand, the market did buy the utilities (XLU) back up over its respective, pre-selloff top. (see yellow horizontal lines) So utilities stay bid while tech and the broader market begin to falter. In my opinion this is what a rotation out of 'growth' ($XLK) from the last 6 weeks and into 'defensives'($XLU) looks like from a price structure perspective. I would interpret this as an expression of 'risk off' market sentiment going into 2023. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
AMEX:XLK
by The_Firewalker
Portfolio Selected Visuals (PSV) vol IThis is a list of my personal portfolio selected ETFs with the simplest visuals, using MACD as the only technical indicator and the trend lines with breaks or breakdowns to give us a new series of PSV charts. ;-) Note that these are using Weekly charts, and a break out is qualified when there is a trendline break out accompanied by a MACD crossover (within a week or two). From left to right... GDX (Gold Miners ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but sees to have met resistance (red ellipse) ILF (LatAm ETF) is still within a trapped range. XLK (Technology ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse) soon after. GXC (China ETF) qualified a break out on 28 Nov, after a higher low. Appears to have another break out above a resistance line. XLE (Energy ETF) qualified a break out on 17 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have broke down of support/resistance (red ellipse). INDY (India ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). XME (Metal Mining ETF) qualified a break out on 24 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). EWS (Singapore ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, without a higher low, and further qualified a better stronger break out pattern on 28 Nov. From this set of visuals, GXC and EWS are the front runners. GDX appears a close third.
AMEX:GXCLong
by Auguraltrader
NVDA Potential - but....NVDA showing the makings of a Cup & Handle Breakout. It has retraced 78% from high, and has attempted to clear the 78% fib line. However, it is riding the upper band of the Bollinger, which is widening and signalling a consolidation. There is considerable resistance above which might lead to a false breakout and breakdown. I would consider a long swing position only if it takes out its most recent high (black horizontal line) and consolidates the handle tightly.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by UnknownUnicorn13101
Anatomy of a NASDAQ interim topAn interesting set of events just occurred in the NASDAQ futures. In early November, the NASDAQ (and most market indices) spiked in a bullish rally, only to find a resistance at about 12,000 in mid-November. It then retraced to test the support at 11,560. While it bounced off the support then, there was a momentary spike down to 11,528. This is the significant low for this consolidation range at the top of the short term rally. The bounce brought it to 11830, where a resistance level was failed. This was then followed by a revisit to the consolidation range support (bottom of yellow box). About an hour ago, a lower low was triggered (red support line) and currently the NASDAQ futures is struggling to keep above the consolidation zone support. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv are slightly bearish, boding a more likely breakdown. MACD crossed under, and remains under the zeroline. VolDiv is not uptrending, but below its SMA, and looking for a breakdown below zero line. Also noted is the green "BD" where it denotes a Break Down of an auto-plotted trendline support. The price action is a little long to the downside, and has been support hugging. It is likely to have some sort of a rebound, but what happens next depends on whether there is more juice to sustain. A technical rebound is due and appears to be forming up at time of writing. Definitely, is there enough juice to get this to the upper part of the range? The other thing here is that a decisive breakdown out of the consolidation range is needed and appears to be lining up for the later part of the week. This is invalidated IF a technical rally closes above 11850. Wait for it...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
bearish rounding top on Tesla forming , short setupcurrently in a 4th way up , however there is a bear flag forming I see. Tesla needs to get over $215, to possibly invalidate the bearish sentiment. Even still, it would also have to breakout above trendline resistances near 220-225. That might be a difficult task. There is also B leg of the previous cypher pattern, that will act as a resistances for wave 5. I'm looking for a short entry above $215.00, if price action fails to get above this level. I'm looking for a quick breakdown below $200... Monitoring for short set up
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by moneyflow_trader
Tech will continue to rise and build baselooking for $xlk index to continue bullish momentum into next week and at least hit B leg. Notice the rising bear flag into the previous highs. I would like to be out before the apex complex and give way to another direction or even if a continuation direction. Price action expected to move to $140 area. There is a base building, and likely will need a handle to support. At that time, possible bearish position will be created. Not trading or investment advice. Just for my education, learning, and trading experience.
AMEX:XLK
by moneyflow_trader
NASDAQ - a bear rally turn to downside target updateJust a quick note that the recent NASDAQ (bear) rally appears to have run its course; on the 1H chart, it had a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows (white lines), and appears to have completed the trend change pattern by breaching the support from the first Lower Low (red line). Given this pattern completion, a typical breakdown of the critical support would see a fall out to the next significant support level. Two of which are close to each other, and about 10,600. The MACD is supporting this view with the MACD crossing under the Signal line, and both crossing down into bearish territory below zero. In alignment, the Volume Divergence has similar cross down / cross under as well. The described breakdown happening in the Asian market hours might see a struggle to keep at the support level area and a probable dive later today at the pre-market opening or early market open hours. Having complete the pattern to the projected target present yet another breakdown which might see an overextension (perhaps early next week) to below 10,000 on the NASDAQ, as earlier expected to meet the downside projected target. An early warning to brace well as we go into the weekend and roll over to next week…
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ has more downsideThe NASDAQ futures are ominous... for more downside movement, given that the first projected downside target has been hit, and exceeded. The NASDAQ weekly chart is bearish looking, with technical indicators supporting that view. Still aiming for <10K (9600). The daily chart has slightly better technicals on the MACD, but it is probably an artefact of the Thursday surge. Nonetheless, the Friday wash out bearish candle left no prisoners with closing at the YTD low. Bearish momentum is clear and present.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Is #Bitcoin a leading asset?JC Parets is one of the few experts I follow closely. He's been saying that "cryptos are just riskier tech stocks" and I agree. Just look how NASDAQ:IXIC , AMEX:XLK and INDEX:BTCUSD have bevahed for the las 5 years. They are highly correlated, all have bottomed almost in tandem 3 times. But if you look in daily charts you'll see that Bitcoin actually bottoms a little bit earlier. Now look at the tops. See how while the Nasdaq and the Tech ETF keeps going up while BTC diverges. As a riskier asset BTC is sold earlier than stocks, but also is buyed earlier than stocks. At least that is what I see here. Bitcoin and Ethereum haven't made new lows while SP:SPX , NASDAQ:IXIC and DJ:DJA have. As JC Parets recently said, "Is Bitcoin finally going to decouple here, or is this just a temporary bout spurred on by unique conditions?" Lets see what happens.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dpuleo19
1
NASDAQ downside risk, clear and presentSimilar to the SPY analysis, the NASDAQ is actually slightly more bearish looking... The daily NQ1! chart has bearish indicators all around, and already is in the immediate downside target range, albeit earlier than projected. The recently broken supports now become resistances. The weekly chart appears even more bearish with the June lows appearing to be easily taken out, and a breakdown to <10,000 very feasible over the next 4-6 weeks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ hits the other type of bump!You could be well forgiven if you thought that the market was toying with you... in the last three weeks, we saw the NASDAQ follow through downside strongly, then ricochet off a support strongly, only to be yet again totally overwhelmed by the bears mauling the markets. In these volatile times, one need to be nimble, and this had been recently heads up in my earlier analyses. Having said all that, something interesting appears to have presented itself, particularly in the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, and I do wonder how many had actually noticed this enigma. It will be discussed here, and we have to play the bull bear scenarios yet again; expected as the volatility is high and sudden changes can and will happen. We start with the NQ1! NASDAQ futures daily chart. We see that the week started as expected with a nice gap up follow through from last week Friday, above the 55EMA. Then with a Powell Pow-Wow, one single day engulfed and wiped out 3 days worth of gains, closing two gap ups. Extremely bearish by any standards. The following day was a weak technical rebound, and then a second bearish engulfing type of price action. On Friday, it gapped down, and made a lower low. Only respite is a late session recovery to close the day as a very interesting candlestick known as the Dragonfly Doji . This doji represents a likely bounce, and is a pre-cursor to a possible bottom, or at least a consolidation. The MACD is starting to show a bullish divergence, and it is starting to appear that a bottom may be forming. But till then, the MACD (lagging as it is) is suggesting that there is more downside or a consolidation at best. Hence, we can draw a critical support line ( the thick yellow line) where price action should remain, and close above for a bullish or consolidation range; otherwise, a breakdown to the previous downside targets is more likely. Without doubt, the daily chart appears to be more bearish than bullish, but the weekly chart has much more than meets the eye. Over the last three weeks, the NQ1! NASDAQ futures weekly candle range is clearly increasing, and appears erratic with a down up down pattern. Zooming out, the symmetrical pattern projection suggest that the NASDAQ is due for a further slide down to below 10K. The technical indicators are divergent in the sense that the MACD is bearish, and yet the shorter term RPM is suggesting some bullishness. How now brown cow? Perhaps if we also take the candlestick patterns to the next level, we might get a clearer hint. The three recent weekly candles circled represent a group of three candlesticks called a Stick Sandwich . In this set of candlestick pattern, regardless of how it looks (bearish) it is typically a bullish reversal pattern at the bottom of a downtrend. Now, to take the bullish scenario, it is nearing the end of a pattern, and the downtrend has been going on for a bit (since Nov 2021 high); so if this is a bullish reversal, then it might be a higher low on the weekly chart. In order for this to pan out, it needs to recover quite strongly over the next couple of weeks, and we can set the resistance at about 13K (thick green line). Overall, this gives us a rather large range from 11,900 to 12,900, and time is needed to see what/where the market decides. Non-technical factors adding to volatility include FOMC announcement on 21 September. Am not an expert about that, but all I can comment is that volatility both ways is a given. Hence, the range guidance. Still, keep in mind the initial and base projection down to 9500, it is not invalidated yet. IMHPO, the I think the bears have a 70/30 edge; am just ready to be nimble (particularly in mindset, perception and timeframe), as the charts are telling. I really hope you enjoyed and appreciate my rather unique analysis. Admittedly, there are parts not mentioned, but do contribute to the overall situational critical analysis. I do not mention as I am not an expert (yet) in those areas although some factors are considered in the overall analysis. More importantly, there are links for further background reading, so do click on them and enjoy the read. Looking forward to your comments... Stay safe & well, be nimble. Have a great week ahead!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ continues tumble towards targetJust a quick review on the week after Powell's Pow Wow speech that sent markets off a cliff... The weekly NASDAQ futures chart had a rather uncommon gap down that failed a close attempt. The week closed down near the lows as well. MACD turned down and is about to cross under the MACD Signal, and well as into the bear territory. All these happening after a failure of the 55EMA three weeks ago. Taken together, it is not looking good at all, and the technical structure warns badly for the next 7 to 8 weeks. A target area of 11-11.5K is expected, but with such initial momentum, it appears that the NASDAQ is more likely to dip below 10K level within the next 8 weeks. This is observable only form the weekly chart itself! Turning to the daily chart, we can see that the last week had bulls struggling with an early but futile attempt to close the gap. This created top tails by mid-week which indicated more downside probability (as expected), and despite a rally on some good data later in the week, the bearishness overwhelmed into closing on Friday. The technical indicator RPM is showing a strong momentum, and the MACD signal is already in bearish territory. 11750 appears as an immediate support, which is not likely to hold out long, but is likely to offer a breather of the bear charge next week. The gap range formed in the week's opening is now a resistance zone. Overall, there is a strong bearish background, but the week incoming should offer a pause, and some sort of a muted technical bounce. Thus far, the modelling targets the NASDAQ below 10K. Until there is a clear break of this model projection, which might take at least a month to form, the NASDAQ is following the projection; heads up.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ - Powell Pow WowLast words from the last analysis were: " be cautious as volatility will spike! " And Powelll delivered a strong stance which blew volatility to a monthly high, up 17% for the VIX. The weekly NASDAQ chart completed the bearish candlestick pattern on a 55EMA failure, and sliced through the 13K support. This is totally not bullish for the next couple of weeks. Downside targets now appear the last low (in October) or a more ominous symmetry projection farther down at 9.5K. The weekly technical indicators currently do not suggest enough bearish power to reach there (yet) and 11.5K higher low appears plausible at the moment. Thing is... next month's Fed meet will firmly provide enough volatility for the next few weeks. The NASDAQ daily chart demonstrates how a reality statement could drive home a message. It can in the form of a Bearish Engulfing, that broke down the 13K support and 55EMA, forming a lower high. Bearish technical indicators have been suggesting this for the past week or two, so should not be much surprise here. Both daily and weekly charts are aligned in bearish tones (as expected earlier), so perhaps an early week technical bounce, and then later week, or the week after, push down is likely...
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend. SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3) QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89) IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97) ____________________ Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09) Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26) Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83) ____________________ VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile) _____________________ The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
AMEX:SPY
by InnerMotionTrading