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XLP

Volatility in Consumer Discretionary driven by AMZN and TSLA.The heavy presence of AMZN and TSLA in Consumer Discretionary makes the sector more volatile. However, I don't see an issue with the trend. Buyers may view levels up to $192.55 as a buying opportunity, especially with AMZN’s high potential from its broad range of innovative ventures. Although TSLA raises some concerns, AMZN could act as a balancing force, or TSLA might follow AMZN’s lead. My price target for the fund is around $212.55, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci level, and AMZN could reach Wall Street's $220 target, which I find reasonable.
AMEX:XLYLong
by Tolgaun6
XLP Potential Breakout on Consumer Staples Sector $XLPXLP Potential Breakout Analysis AMEX:XLP is showing signs of a potential breakout based on technical analysis. This could present a favorable opportunity to consider investing in the Consumer Staples sector. Why Consumer Staples Sector? The Consumer Staples sector is known for its stability and resilience during market fluctuations, making it an attractive option for investors looking for a defensive position. These companies produce essential goods that people need regardless of economic conditions, providing steady demand and consistent performance. Interesting Companies in the Consumer Staples Sector: Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ): A multinational consumer goods company with a diverse portfolio of products ranging from household essentials to personal care items. Its strong brand presence and global reach make it a reliable choice for long-term investors. Coca-Cola ( NYSE:KO ): A leading beverage company known for its iconic brands like Coca-Cola, Sprite, and Fanta. With a focus on innovation and expanding into new markets, Coca-Cola remains a solid pick in the consumer staples industry. Colgate-Palmolive ( NYSE:CL ): A well-established company specializing in oral care, personal care, and household products. Colgate-Palmolive has a history of consistent growth and brand loyalty, making it a dependable investment option. Investing in these companies within the Consumer Staples sector could provide a balance of stability and potential growth opportunities. Keep an eye on AMEX:XLP for further developments to capitalize on the potential breakout.
AMEX:XLPLong
by holacarlosmartinez
MACRO MONDAY 28 ~ Discretionary Index Vs Staples IndexMacro Monday 28 – Discretionary Vs Staples Today we are going to look at the following two very interesting SPDR Indexes and their relationship to one another to help us understand where the U.S. consumer is at present. SPDR Select Sector Funds (“SPDE SSF”) 1. Consumer Discretionary SPDR Fund AMEX:XLY 2. Consumer Staples SPDR Fund AMEX:XLP For reference the SPDR (AKA the Spider) is a short form name for a “Standard & Poor's Depository Receipt”, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) managed by State Street Global Advisors that tracks the Standard & Poor's 500 index CBOE:SPX What are Discretionary Expenses? Discretionary expenses are defined as “a cost that a business or household can survive without, if necessary”. These are the nonessentials like meals at restaurants, entertainment costs, vacations and 50” flat screen TV’s. What’s in the SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index? The SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index seeks to provide focused exposure to companies that provide discretionary nonessential services or produces such as hotels, restaurants and leisure; textiles, apparel and luxury goods; household durables; automobiles; automobile components; distributors; leisure products; and diversified consumer services. The SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index top 10 holdings are: 1. Amazon 22.62% 2. Tesla 17.76% 3. McDonalds 4.63% 4. Home Depot 4.58% 5. Nike 3.80% 6. Lowes Cos 3.70% 7. Booking 3.62% 8. Starbucks Corp 3.24% 9. TJX Companies 3.22% 10. Chipotle 1.85% Now we understand exactly what the SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index is and what its main components are. We know that the index itself is driven by stock prices from a collection of companies that offer discretionary services and products in the U.S. Now lets have a look at the SPDR Consumer Discretionary Chart Chart 1 – SPDR Consumer Discretionary - AMEX:XLY At a glance the chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ In December 2007 price fell below the 200 Week Moving Average (WMA) which coincided with the exact date the Great Financial Crisis commenced (from Dec 2007 – June 2009). ▫️ Interestingly price got back above the 200 WMA in February 2010, 8 months after the recession had ended. ▫️ Since 2009 Consumer Discretionary spending appears to be in a general up trend with a lot of volatility in recent years however still in an uptrend. ▫️ The 200 WMA is still rising and sloping upwards, and price is now back above it which indicates strength. ▫️ Recently we made a potential lower higher and this is something we should look to confirm over the coming months. Should we break higher this would be obviously bullish, another lower high and we know to be cautious. ▫️ In the event we breach the 200 WMA, we should start to get more cautious. This has occurred twice since 2020 and price got back above the 200 WMA however we are very aware that a breach of the 200 WMA can signal a recession as it did so accurately in Dec 2007. ▫️ If we fall below the “INITIAL SUPPORT” marked on the chart, consider this an initial serious warning. ▫️ If we breach the “MUST HOLD SUPPORT” this would be extremely bearish. - you will see that volatility to the downside on Consumer Discretionary can be quiet something in our comparison charts below. It is worth noting the level of increased volatility since 2018 on the chart. We have not really seen anything like it before dating back to 1998. Lets move onto the Consumer Staples and see what they are, what they consist of and what the chart is telling us here. What are Staples? The term consumer staples refers to a set of essential products used by consumers. This category includes things like foods and beverages, household goods, and hygiene products as well as alcohol and tobacco. These goods are those products that people are unable—or unwilling—to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation. What’s in the SPDR Consumer Staples Index? The SPDR Consumer Staples Index seeks to provide a focused exposure to companies that providing consumer staples distribution & retail; household products; food products; beverages; tobacco; and personal care products industries in the U.S. The SPDR Consumer Staples Index top 10 holding are: 1. Proctor & Gamble 14.11% 2. Costco Wholesale 11.56% 3. Pepsico 9.49% 4. Coca Cola 9.36% 5. Philip Morris Int 4.54% 6. Walmart 4.53% 7. Mondelez Int 4.47% 8. Altria Group 3.40% 9. Colgate Palmolive 3.06% 10. Target 3.00% We now know exactly what the SPDR Consumer Staples Index is and what its main components are. We know that the index itself is driven by stock prices from a collection of companies that offer Consumer Staple services and products in the U.S. Products/services people cannot do without, products they need day to day. Now lets have a look at the Chart Chart 2 – SPDR Consumer Staples Index AMEX:XLP At a glance the chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ The high in Consumer Staples in Dec 2007 coincided with the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis. In Chart 1 above on Consumer Discretionary we seen that a breach of the 200 WMA coincided with Dec 2007 GFC. Both charts demonstrated some synchronicity in advising caution from Dec 2007 forward. ▫️ Nine months later in Sept 2008 a lower high formed in Staples and after that the lower support line was lost following which capitulation occurred. I have marked up a similar “MUST HOLD SUPPORT” line for the current price structure. We have made a lower high similar to 2008. A breach above that lower high would be bullish, continued lower highs would indicate weakness. ▫️ Since 2009 Consumer Staples still appear to be in a general up trend with increased volatility in recent years however still in an uptrend. ▫️ The 200 WMA is still rising and sloping upwards, and price is now back above it now again which indicates strength. ▫️ All the same levels are apparent here as above in Chart 1. The 200 WMA, the “INITIAL SUPPORT” and the “MUST HOLD SUPPORT”. Now that we are familiar with the charts, their price history, the important levels to watch and some synchronicities, lets have a look at how these charts compare when you line them up together on the same scale. Chart 3 – Discretionary versus Staples SUBJECT CHART AT TOP OF ARTICLE We will take three main things away from this chart: 1. The big obvious finding on the chart is just the extent at which the Consumer Discretionary Index (orange) has risen above Consumer Staples(blue). This wide gap between the orange and blue lines is really stark and it appears it may be starting to close. 2. Historically Consumer Discretionary (orange) revisits and falls lower than Consumer Staples (Blue), particularly during recessions. We have a long way to go for this to happen again. See Chart 1 and Chart 2 above for important support levels to watch (for both). 3. Consumer Discretionary (Orange) started to make a series of lower highs prior to the Great Financial Crisis (see black arrow on chart), something similar may be occurring now. We are also already aware that Consumer Discretionary fell below the 200 WMA in exactly December 2007 which was the first month of the Great Financial Crisis. This is also the exact date when Consumer Staples topped in 2007. At present Consumer Staples made a top in April 2022 and Consumer Discretionary made a potential lower high in Dec 2023, however it has not fallen below and remained below the 200 WMA (making this a key line in the sand to watch going forward). Chart 4 – The Relative Strength of Consumer Discretionary In this chart I just wanted to illustrate the relative strength of the Consumer Discretionary over the Consumer Staples over the longer term. You can create this chart by inserting XLY/XLP into TradingView. As you can see this chart has been trending up and to the right since 2008. Discretionary spending appears to be on a long term uptrend and this is worth noting as a long term potential shift towards spending on services, experiences and higher end electronics. Technology Index’s in prior Macro Mondays are showing strength and we have to consider that if we do not breach the important support levels marked in Chart 1 and Chart 2 above, we may have a secular shift in spending habits towards discretionary (until support levels are broken). Granted this may be the least probable and least accepted view given recession fears, liquidity concerns and the yield curve un-inversion likely to occur in 2024. We do however need to keep an open mind, a COVID-19 type event might bring us down to the bottom trend line only to bounce off it after another stimulus hits the market. If we lost that lower support line, we can say unequivocally that the secular trend of discretionary spending strength is over. We now have a two more Indexes to watch that give us a good idea of the impact consumer spending is having on companies in the marketplace. We have our levels to watch and a good understanding of the risks and potential trends. Use it wisely. All my charts are on TradingView and you can revisit them at any time and press play to see have we breached any important levels to the upside or downside. Thanks for reading. PUKA
AMEX:XLP
by PukaCharts
2
XLP - Staples are lagging the market XLP has had horrific downside price action over the last several weeks. As it approaches the Weekly 200 MA I do anticipate a bounce to occur. Not many sectors are near the weekly 200 MA. Buying this at the Weekly 200 MA has proven to be a great long term entry for investors. If a bounce occurs and bearish consolidation on the weekly chart occurs, this sector will likely be a good short side play. I would never short this sector now since its had a big decline. A bounce is more favourable at this point.
AMEX:XLP
by Trading-Capital
P&G Target $135Procter & Gamble is in a weekly uptrend but was hitting its „head“ on the 158.00 resistance. After consolidating there it fell through the local higher low, building a new lower low and is currently retracing to that former local low which acts now as a resistance. The stock showed large sell volume on that resistance last friday which suggests we might se another break down to the current support at 135.00. We have two problems to consider in this trade: 1. The XLP (Index for Consumer Staples, with P&G as its biggest position) is currently more on a support than resistance and might suggest an upward move. That could mean P&G breaks through the 150.00 and is heading higher. 2. The yellow trend line was not broken yet. As a price action trader this is more of a minor problem to me because trend lines are artificial and only an indication for specific price action but should not be mistaken as price action itself. I therefore suggest to wait what happens today. If we see further downward movement, the trade could be taken. If we remain at the 150.00 resistance without larger sell volumes we should skip this one. Also, do not forget that consumer staples show steady performance during recessions and inflation periods because of the nature of their products. Not a primary concern for technical traders but it should be kept in mind. — 🐻 Trade Idea: Short - PG 🔥 Account Risk: 1.00% 📈 Recommended Product: Knockout / Option 🔍 Entry: +/- 147.00 🐿 DCA: No 😫 Stop-Loss: 155.00 🎯 Take-Profit #1: 135.00 (75%) 🎯 Trail Rest: Yes 🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨 If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button! — Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG The trades shown here related to stocks, cryptos, commodities, ETFs and funds are always subject to risks. All texts as well as the notes and information do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. They have been taken from publicly available sources to the best of our knowledge and belief. All information provided (all thoughts, forecasts, comments, hints, advice, stop loss, take profit, etc.) are for educational and private entertainment purposes only. Nevertheless, no liability can be assumed for the correctness in each individual case. Should visitors to this site adopt the content provided as their own or follow any advice given, they act on their own responsibility.
NYSE:PGShort
by LGNDRY-Capital
1
PG on downtrend continuanceOn the 2 hr chart, PG was fighting heavy resistance for month. The supply /resistance zone is on the chart from the Luxalgo indicator. Multiple touches but the zone was not broken. Price has retraced down beyond the 0.5 Fib level. PG is tracking well with XLP the consumer staples ETF shown as a thin black line on the chart. The Luxaglo Echo indicator, a predictive AI tool suggests that price will retest the 0.5 Fib level and then descend to the support /demand zone with a volume mean of 149.5. I will take a short position with put contracts with a strike of $ 154 above the Fib 0.5 level with DTE of 6 = 5/26. For the stock position, I will set a sell limit of $153 also with a stop loss of $ 154 with the the target for 2/3 of the position at $ 150 and the remaining third is to watch to see if the zone brakes. I believe that this is a safe trade in a low-volatility stock set to capture profit advantaging the prevailing trend running in concert with the subsector ETF.
NYSE:PGShort
by AwesomeAvani
8
XLP - Horizontal Trend Channel- XLP is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the medium long term. - A break upwards will be a positive signal, while a break downwards will be a negative signal. - The price has broken the resistance at 77.23 of an an inverse head and shoulders formation. - Decisive breaks of such formations are considered strong signals of further rise. - The stock has marginally broken up through resistance at 77.30. - Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond badly with tops and bottoms in the price. - RSI above 70 shows that the stock has strong positive momentum in the short term. - The RSI curve shows a rising trend, which is an early signal of a possible trend reversal upwards for the price as well. - Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term. *EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price *Chart Pattern DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED REC - Rectangle | BLUE iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:XLPLong
by wavepoint99
XLY XLP factors for 2022 and beyondQuick review of the spending habits over last the years since i published my first chart... covid craziness brought the chart heavily into the XLP 'stable needs' but a huge rebound into the luxury spending, probably due to the rich getting richer and all that crazy covid money and legal scams of the mega rich energy price increases and inflation has knobbled that spike and brought it way back down to earth with a lengthy recession in sight its good to review markets on these levels have a great summer, stay sane with all the relentless BS spouted from the MSM everyday! if u feel under the weather, throw out your Te'lie'vision
AMEX:XLY
by majorlee