Sector Rotation July 2020 - Money on Defensive?This week's dip on the AMEX:SPY revealed something important within the Sector Rotation model. For the last quarter the Sector Rotation model has been giving mixed signals following the clear predictive path it forecasted coming out of March 2020. This recent price shock provided a glimpse into where the money is moving right now!
XLU
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/16The sectors ended the week in a very character than they started the week. None of the leading sectors early in the week were leading by the end of the week.
Financials (XLF) started the week in first as investors anticipated earnings reports from big banks that began on Tuesday. By Friday, the sector slipped to the middle of the list, ending the week with a -1.61% decline.
Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) took over the top spots for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. They also reversed downward and ended the week with losses.
The only sectors to end the week with gains were Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Real Estate (XLRE). The defensive sectors gained ground at the end of the week as worries over the economy grew among investors.
Energy (XLE) was at the bottom of the list, dropping -7.89% this week. OPEC+ continues to have disagreements, destabilizing the sector along with the price of oil. Add the fears of a slowing recovery, and investors are exiting positions in the sector that performed well in the first half of 2021.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/9The short week was defined mainly by Thursday's sell-off in equities as Treasury bond yields were sliding. That gave a boost to two defensive sectors, Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU), but the two sectors were already leading from Monday. The worries ended on Friday, but the two sectors remained in the lead for the week.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the next two sectors at the top of the list, showing a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment throughout the week.
The cyclical sectors moved from the top of the sector list on Wednesday to the bottom of the list on Thursday, back to the top of the list on Friday.
Energy (XLE) was a consistent loser throughout the week until finally finding itself at the top of the list on Friday. However, the gains were not enough to move it out of the bottom position for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/2Technology (XLK) led the sector list this week, propelled higher by strong economic data and significant gains by big tech. Communications (XLC) led briefly on Monday after a judge threw out two cases brought against Facebook. The decision was a blow to regulators and a boon to several tech mega-caps facing similar challenges.
Utilities (XLU) also led at the beginning of the week but quickly retreated and ended the week at a loss.
Energy (XLE) had a volatile start to the week due to increased pandemic fears. The continued demand for Oil, driving prices higher, eventually brought investors back to the sector. However, it wasn't enough to lift the sector out of the bottom position in the sector list.
The three secular growth sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index this week, while cyclical sectors underperformed.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/25Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) topped the sector list this week. Energy continues to rise while crude oil prices hit record highs. Financials (XLF) is recovering along with yields on Treasury Bonds, which both were hit by the hawkish stance from the Fed last week.
At the bottom of the sector list were the defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU) was the only sector to decline this week.
The growth sectors mixed with the cyclical sectors in the middle of the list.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/4Energy (XLE) and Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list for the week, establishing their lead early in the week. Energy got a boost from the rise in oil prices on high demand. Real Estate is gathering momentum from rising housing and rental prices while also being a great hedge against inflation.
The focus on employment data released on Friday morning is clear in two pivots. There was a sharp sell-off of most sectors except Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) on Thursday ahead of the report. The two sectors are good defensive plays when investors get nervous about how the market may react to news or events.
After the report was released, Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communications (XLC) rallied on Friday. It seems the employment data was good enough to keep a positive outlook, while not so good to drive more fears of tapering by the Fed.
Health Care (XLV) was the worst-performing sector for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/28Growth sectors stole the show this week as investors put inflation worries aside and boosted Communications (XLC) and Technology (XLK) early in the week. The focus was on the growth sectors from Monday to Wednesday. Technology faded back in the list, buy Consumer Discretionary (XLY) joined Communications to end the week at the top of the list.
On Thursday, there was a rotation into cyclicals, bringing Industrials (XLI) higher in the list. Industrials ended the week in fourth place.
Friday brought out the defensive plays heading into a three-day weekend and the start of the summer months. That gave a boost to Real Estate (XLRE), Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Staples (XLP). Real Estate (XLRE) ended in third place for the week, while Health Care and Utilities remained at the bottom two sectors for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/14It was a mix of defensive and cyclical stocks that led the sector list this week. Only three sectors ended the week with gains, while the high growth sectors took the biggest declines.
Consumer Staples (XLP) topped the list with Utilities (XLU) in fourth place. Both are defensive sectors for investors. Real Estate (XLRE) was lower in the list but still outperformed the sectors.
Financials (XLF) and Materials (XLB) joined Consumer Staples as the only sectors to end the week with gains.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the list. Both contain high growth companies that are likely to be impacted by inflation and potential increases in interest rates. They started to recovery on Thursday and Friday after the US Dollar and Treasury interest rates dropped.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/7It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) were the top four sectors of the week.
The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper, Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up.
While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks.
Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/16Utilities (XLU) is surprisingly the top sector for the day. Topping the list on Tuesday and nearing the top of the list on Friday the sector had steady gains throughout the week. The sector is usually a defensive move for investors. Perhaps investors nervousness grew as the S&P 500 has been setting new all-time highs.
Less of a surprise is to see Materials (XLB) at the top of the weekly list. The sector is benefiting not only from investments on infrastructure being discussed in Washington, but also a strong housing sector and a surge in building permits.
Energy (XLE) had a choppy week, taking the lead on Wednesday, but quickly fading to near the bottom of the list for the weekly.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also had some good days this week, advancing on news of strong retail sales and an advance in consumer credit showing increased spending.
The worst performing sector this week was Communications (XLC). There have been some reports of decelerating spending on Internet media and social platforms from retailers. That makes sense as demand is naturally increasing and requires less effort for omnichannel marketing to bring in consumers.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/1Communications (XLC) did not top the sector list for a single day, but it's steady gains throughout the week put it at the top of the weekly chart.
Utilities (XLU) started the week on top. Investors were nervous on Monday about the lasting impact of the Suez Canal blockage and whether a $20b fire sale of Archegos investments would grow or even expand to other firms. Utilities popped back into the story late on Wednesday when a sudden pop and sell-off in big tech occurred in the final hour.
Financials (XLF) was also impacted by the Archegos drama on Monday. By Tuesday, the damage was contained and higher treasury bond yields provided a life to the sector, making it the top performer for the day.
Technology (XLK) got a boost on Wednesday when Microsoft announced news of an augmented reality deal with the US Army. That spike sold off quickly, but the buyers came back in on Thursday, bringing the Technology sector up to second place for the week.
Energy (XLE) spent most of the week at the bottom of the list. Higher-then-expected demand for oil and gas and a generally positive outlook for economic growth brought the sector gains on Thursday that lifted it from the bottom.
Consumer Staples (XLP) ended the week as the worst performing sector. The rotation out of staples could continue as investors see consumers return to normal spending habits in a strengthening economic cycle.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/26There were several change of winners and losers during a week that ended with the S&P 500 at a record close.
Technology (XLK) led for the first two days of the week, was sold off heavily on Wednesday and Thursday, but then ended the week with a huge gain on Friday, putting it in third place.
Utilities (XLU) took over the top spot on Thursday as investors became very cautious and fled to the defensive sector.
Consumer Staples (XLP) remained steady throughout the volatile week and ended the week at the top.
After last week's rout, Energy (XLE) seemed to find a bottom on Tuesday. After a big gain on Wednesday, the sector opened back near the bottom on Thursday, but quickly recovered. But the end of Friday, it was able to end the week with a gain.
Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the only two sectors to decline for the week. Communication Services ended the week at the bottom with more than a 4% decline. Although Technology sector fared well, there is still evidence of rotation from growth to value.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/19Inflation, yields and the fed, oh my! The sectors were all over the place this week, all driven by nervousness about an overheating economy and how the fed might react.
Monday started the week with the defensive sector Utilities (XLU) at the top.
On Tuesday, Retail sales data for February showed the economy wasn't overheating and inflation may not be on the rise. That gave investors some confidence and despite bond yields rising, interest rate sensitive sectors such as Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) rose to the top.
After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Jerome Powell acknowledge the increased outlook on the economy for 2021, but made a firm statement that interest rates would not be raised and bond purchasing programs would continue. You can clearly see the spike in Technology and Communications again after 2:00p on Wednesday.
But then bond investors had their reaction on Thursday. As market open approached, bond investors sold heavily in the morning, sending yields on a surge again. Industrials (XLI) did well for most of the day but sold off before close. Only Financials (XLF) ended the day with a gain.
Finally on Friday, bond yields climbed but at a smaller rate with the yield curve flattening a bit. That allowed several sectors to find some upside. Communication Services ended the week at the top sector.
Energy (XLE) was the worst performing sector of the week as crude oil prices plummeted on less demand, losing over 7.5% and dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) with it.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/12It was a wild week for the sectors as investors rotated in and out of Technology and Communications stocks. All sectors ended the week with gains.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the big winner. Large stimulus checks will be delivered soon that are expected to be poured into the economy via consumer spending on both needs and wants.
Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) spent Monday at the bottom of the sector list, Tuesday at the top, Wednesday at the bottom, Thursday at the top, and Friday at the bottom. In the end, the two sectors landed just behind the SPX in performance, but did have gains for the day.
Financials (XLF) was also one to watch. It flipped back and forth as investors followed closely what was happening in the bond markets. The increase in yields could be a boon for Financials. The increased yields would have the opposite impact on big technology and communications companies and smaller growth companies. As yields went back and forth, so did the performance of these sectors.
Energy (XLE) ended the week as the worst sector. Although it had a big gain on Wednesday, it wasn't enough to cover the losses on Monday and Tuesday.
Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) did not have any big days, but were on a steady rise throughout the week. They ended the week in 2nd and 3rd place on the list. The two sectors are often used as defensive plays.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/5If you kept your eyes only on big tech and growth stocks, you might have missed that many sectors had fairly good advances this week. The sector chart supports the thesis that there is an outsized rotation in progress that is presenting as a correction, but that there is still a level of support in the broader equities market.
The top two sectors, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF), never dipped into negative territory even with Thursday's broad sell-off.
The other cyclical Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) also performed well for the week. Materials was leading for the week at the end of Tuesday, but backed off a bit later in the week.
There was caution visible in the sectors as Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) advanced.
Investors moved from sectors that are more exposed to pressures from inflation and higher yields. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were the hardest hit among the sectors. Real Estate (XLRE) is also at the bottom of the list.
At center stage is the bond market sell-off that is driving higher yields. Interest rates that are based on the yields will make borrowing costs higher. Add to that fears of higher inflation would bring interest rate adjustments earlier than initially expected. The higher interest rates benefit big banks that drive the Financials sector higher. But it depresses the net present value that was priced into high growth sectors like Technology.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/26It's a good week to take a close look at the sectors and see how the market moved around during pullbacks in the major indexes.
Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were joined at the hip, finding themselves at the top of the sector list on Monday and Wednesday and at the bottom of the list on Friday. However the days spent at the top were enough to allow them to end the week in 1st and 2nd place.
However, Energy was the only sector that could keep gains to end the week in the positive.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) took a beating throughout the week as investors moved away from these sectors fearing the impact of inflation and higher interest rates.
Utilities (XLU) is usually in play when investors are nervous. It showed up at the top of the list on Tuesday and Thursday, but ended the week at the bottom of the list.
The cyclical stocks Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) outperformed the SPX for a second week. Along with Energy and Financials, these cyclical sectors were top performers for the whole month of February.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/19It was a week for the cyclical stocks. Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB), and Industrials (XLI) were the only sectors to close the week with gains.
That was not the case for the entire week. Communication Services (XLC) started the week with gains but faded in the last two days.
Utilities (XLU) had one day as the leading sector on Thursday, but moved back to the bottom of the list on Friday.
Health Care (XLV) was the worst performing sector of the week.