XLY Above POCStill one of my favourite under the radar plays. Strategic partners with Imperial Brands.
XLY
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/5If you kept your eyes only on big tech and growth stocks, you might have missed that many sectors had fairly good advances this week. The sector chart supports the thesis that there is an outsized rotation in progress that is presenting as a correction, but that there is still a level of support in the broader equities market.
The top two sectors, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF), never dipped into negative territory even with Thursday's broad sell-off.
The other cyclical Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) also performed well for the week. Materials was leading for the week at the end of Tuesday, but backed off a bit later in the week.
There was caution visible in the sectors as Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) advanced.
Investors moved from sectors that are more exposed to pressures from inflation and higher yields. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were the hardest hit among the sectors. Real Estate (XLRE) is also at the bottom of the list.
At center stage is the bond market sell-off that is driving higher yields. Interest rates that are based on the yields will make borrowing costs higher. Add to that fears of higher inflation would bring interest rate adjustments earlier than initially expected. The higher interest rates benefit big banks that drive the Financials sector higher. But it depresses the net present value that was priced into high growth sectors like Technology.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/26It's a good week to take a close look at the sectors and see how the market moved around during pullbacks in the major indexes.
Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were joined at the hip, finding themselves at the top of the sector list on Monday and Wednesday and at the bottom of the list on Friday. However the days spent at the top were enough to allow them to end the week in 1st and 2nd place.
However, Energy was the only sector that could keep gains to end the week in the positive.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) took a beating throughout the week as investors moved away from these sectors fearing the impact of inflation and higher interest rates.
Utilities (XLU) is usually in play when investors are nervous. It showed up at the top of the list on Tuesday and Thursday, but ended the week at the bottom of the list.
The cyclical stocks Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) outperformed the SPX for a second week. Along with Energy and Financials, these cyclical sectors were top performers for the whole month of February.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/12Energy (XLE) led for a second week in a row as crude oil prices continue to rise and optimism for economic recovery to bring demand back to oil and gas as transportation, travel and leisure sectors bounce back.
Technology (XLK) and Health (XLV) led for Thursday as Energy pulled back for a day. However, Energy bounced back up to the week's highs on Friday.
Consumer Staples (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) both lost for the week. Core CPI numbers showed lower than expected inflation and weighed down on the two sectors.
Utilities (XLU) was the bottom sector for the week. There was not much interest in this defensive play for equities this week.
XLY retest of break outWe will see if she is ready for continuation, when she retests the diagonal today.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/5Energy (XLE) was back on top for the first week of February. The sector benefited from higher than expected demand in oil that also raise crude oil prices throughout the week.
Technology (XLK) started the week in the lead, having a strong Monday. The Consumer Discretionary (XLY) took the lead on Tuesday. Financials (XLF) briefly moved to the top spot on Thursday, but was soon passed by Energy again.
Health Care (XLV) was at the bottom of the list for the week.
Materials (XLB) was the worst performing sector on Thursday, but led the sectors on Friday.
AMZN 3100: Call Butterfly into Earnings on dips for Long AMZN has frustrated bulls with its chops, the historical patterns though indicated that prior to earnings, the stock tends to drop lower (as seen on those orange dots) yet they are buying opportunities for longs wanting to participate in the possible post-earnings explosive moves (as it has been in the past 2 quarters).
Plan to buy call butterfly of 3250/3350/3450, in addition, one could sell some PCS outside of 1ATR as the company's footprint has been increasingly larger in the Covid era, hence likely good results. The PCS also serves to finance the call butterfly.
Could also consider Call Butterfly of 3300/3400/3500 as a better but more expensive idea.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/8Energy (XLE) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics, which doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output.
The blue wave did have some expected impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar. That caused Financials (XLF), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday.
Materials (XLB) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration.
Industrials (XLI) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems.
At the bottom of the list is Real Estate (XLRE) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates.
Technology (XLK) had the opposite reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials.
Also notable is Utilities (XLU) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/31Communications (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) spent about half the week each at the top of the sector list.
But it was Utilities (XLU) that would rise at the end of the week as the winner. No doubt a defensive play going into the long weekend and a turn of the clock to a new year.
Energy (XLE) had a very short-lived time at that top on Monday morning, but ended the week as the worst performing sector. Energy was the only sector to end the week with a loss.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/18The sectors took on a character we have not seen for some time.
Technology (XLK) is back to leading the sectors for this week. Helped by a number of breakouts in technology growth stocks, some of those fueled by speculation in security stocks following a wide and troublesome security breach that impacted both the government and private sector.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) came in second, after very briefly passing Technology on Wednesday morning. Retail Sales data and Santa Claus are likely the reasons for the great performance.
Materials (XLB) also performed well on Building Permits and New Housing Starts data that came in better than expected.
The big loser for the week was Energy (XLE). This is after five weeks of leading the sector list. Despite vaccine availability and positive oil prices giving it a boost midweek, the nervous sentiment caused by new lockdowns worldwide have put downward price pressure on the sector.
XLY Corrective Structure with PotentialCurrently at the A=C level. Breaking above the .618 ($0.30) would be bullish/impulsive.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/30It was a long painful week for all the sectors with the overall S&P 500 index losing -5.64%, worst since March of this year.
Utilities (XLU) topped the list of sectors "only" losing -3.66% and remained as the safe place for investors to go to stay into equities instead of the alternatives.
There were certainly days that each sector had to shine, but as far as the week-to-date performance, there was not a lot of back and forth as the days progressed in the weekly list of sector winners/losers.
Most sectors beat the overall S&P 500 index.
The exception is Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI). Consumer Discretionary just barely beat out Industrials to be the week's loser at a -6.55% loss.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/23This week it was all about Communication Services (XLC) with the positive earnings beat from Snap (SNAP) driving growth in many of the social platform company stock prices.
Utilities (XLU) continues to be a safe bet for investors as a sector that is consistently performing well over the past few weeks.
Financials (XLF) also had a great week as bond yields are increasing which is usually a good sign for performance of banking stocks.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) started the week on top but backed off a bit before coming back with some good gains on Friday.
Energy (XLE) had a huge Thursday that put it at the top of the the sectors, but it could not hold the lead, backing off a bit on Friday.
It's not often that we find Technology (XLK) at the bottom of the list for weekly sector performance. Keep an eye on it as many technology companies will have earnings in the next two weeks.
Is This Bullish or Bearish? Remember that narratives will be constructed every day in financial media based on emotions. The problem with this strategy is that they have already happened! It has already shown up on the chart. So today, we are going to look at one of the most important intermarket relationships. That is Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples, or XLY/XLP. Let’s hop onto the chart.
So what are we seeing here? Well the first thing that should catch your eye is the all time high. We love all time highs! They are bullish. When XLY is outperforming XLP on a relative basis, this is a “risk on” environment. The other thing we see is the overall bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows.
Then we see the bearish divergence. Some people tend to think that a bearish divergence will cause a trend change, but when the overall trend is bullish, we have to remember that these usually just produce pullbacks and then the trend continues. So while this chart is bullish, we can wait and watch while the higher low forms. When the higher low forms, that is confirmation the "risk on" environment is alive and well.
Keep this relationship in you back pocket. It is a great one to help you navigate the narratives of “the consumer is in bad shape”. If XLY is outperforming, the market is telling you otherwise. We would rather listen to the market than someone on CNBC.
Happy Trading!
XLY Bull Break ConfirmedPrevious idea suggested a possible move to MA50 daily. Chart looking bullish, could break higher from here. Next targets $0.22 and $0.26.
Falling wedge on the weekly. A break above that upper trend line would imply that we caught the bottom. I still had an order for another tranche at $0.11. DOH!
XLY Bull BreakFinally. I still had a buy order at $0.11, but that one won't get filled now. I've accumulated a bunch, and currently looking for a test of MA50 daily at $0.18.
Buffet indicator- The world of growth stocksYes, the stock market is overheated judging by all valuation metrics.
For those of us who don't want to jump the gun and want to stay in the trend until it is broken, sector ETFs offer better return than major indexes such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but are not as volatile as individual stocks.
According to Goldman Sach, IT and consumer discretionary have risk adjusted return (Sharpe ratio) of 0.9.
Stay safe out there.
XLY bottom could be near...Never quite recovered from the February sell off. Close to a double bottom, expecting some sort of bounce.