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XLY

ACB - I've deleted it from my daily watch listThey expect their new shelf prospectus and reverse split to be completed on May 11. Based on last week's market cap, we would be looking at 35% dilution, but after yesterday's sell off, it is getting closer to 50%. I had a buy box for a bounce play, but for the time being, I will be avoiding ACB like the plague. ACB and CGC, they once were kings of a promised land, and then, it all went bust. My money is safe with APHA, XLY, LABS, VLNS, and the USA based MSO's. Not with Acreage though. Perhaps I sound cynical, but this is a tough time for cannabis investors, and it requires a tough attitude and strong opinion. I act on what I see, not on what analysts tell me. One even suggests ACB is still a buy. Fundamentals and business strategy are key, and both CGC and ACB are lacking, for the time being.
A
by Barkworth
2
ACB, right into my target box.First buy box reached. I had reserved an amount for this moment, and I have divided that amount into three baskets. The first one filled at $1.15. The next FIB level down is around $0.89, but this may very well bounce at the $1 psychological level. A third will be purchased if it drops into the box below $0.80. At the moment, judging from a fundamental perspective, ACB is trading at fair value. I am also convinced that ACB will make a comeback at some point. What we need to understand, is that it will definitely run out of cash if the market doesn't pick up soon. There is also the slight possibility that ACB would attract a strategic investor, but I would expect such an investment to provide perhaps $500M, and a deal would possibly look similar to Auxly's recent strategic investment by Imperial Brands. There is no telling me that a broad range of conglomerates isn't watching the cannabis industry with anticipation, but there is no telling whom and when they will act. A little of topic here, but my point is that if you do choose to speculate on a bounce, you should understand first of all that it is very speculative, and you should prepare for news about share dilution to raise more cash once the current prospectus becomes exhausted. Yet, a lot can happen before that time. It would be beautiful if all three of my orders get filled. But it would also be beautiful to see a few months of solid rangebound, sideways trading. I am expecting at least another disastrous quarter, and thus I am in no hurry. If it would suddenly turn bullish, there is still time to enter on a buy signal... Ultimately, I have a stopp loss at $0.40. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.
A
by Barkworth
6
XLY looking slightly bullishUnderlying weakness, with bullish divergence on several indicators. Could possibly see a correction to $0.70 support/resistance soon. Excellent fundamentals, undervalued and a strategic investment by Imperial Brands. Monthly/weekly falling wedge likely to remain in play until Q2 2021, but there should be some significant bounces. Currently trading at $0.57, a bounce to $0.70 would mean a significant profit, while a drop below $0.54 would be an opportunity to buy more shares. I am long Auxly, but I'm selling every extended bounce, locking in profits, then retrace it to load up again. If you aren't familiar with this company, then you should research it. Their business model is similar to that of CRON. With UK based Imperial Brands on board, there is no reason why CRON should be favoured over XLY, though CRON enjoyed a $1.7B strategic investment, while XLY thus far received $200M. Still, strategically, CRON is expected to have that money sustain its business for the next 15 years, which suggests to me that $200M is actually very good money to sustain operations in the next few years.
X
by Barkworth
So Goes the Consumer, So Goes the Economy?My two most favorite indicators (RSI+MACD; not too crazy) just broke their monthly trends. I think consumption data should be followed more closely in the next quarter to provide us with reassurance that the consumer remains strong. Watch unemployment to remain contained, sentiment remain broadly positive - Umich, NFIB smallbus, OECD CEO - and that Homebuilder data continues this recent acceleration and wasn't just a one-off very strong month for NAHB, permits, & starts. - RH
AMEX:XLY
by RHTrading
$SPY LONG-TERM OUTLOOK ... STILL (BEARISH!)Before we get started, I just wanna say that the method used here is an extension of an article written in 2015 on Stockcharts called "This Signal Is Bullish And Rarely Fails". Worth a read to better, it's a short article with more depth, but the forecast is outdated. In short: Consumer sentiment always leads the Stock market. Okay, so what's going on here? Someone once asked me about consumer spending "growing" that keeps getting reported in the news every day in relation with the GDP... Well, the GDP "numbers" are always a lagging indicator to an economic down turn. As for the consumer spending, that is where this chart comes to play. The idea is that we're charting the orange line with XLY (Consumer Discretionary - Things you WANT (like an x-box)) / XLP(Consumer Staple - Things you NEED (like soap)). So if the slope of the line is positive (all the green lines) then people are spending on things they WANT and not just NEED, hence signaling a positive sentiment in the economy and therefore we should expect a stronger market. Well if that's the case, then the opposite is also true. Meaning, if we have a negative slope (black lines on the XLY/XLP chart) this is signaling that there is a weakness in the economy and therefore we should expect a weaker market. However, this sentiment doesn't always go hand-in-hand with the market and ends up creating DIVERGENCES (shown in the chart) all of which have been leading indicators to past recessions and nowadays we have another NEG DIVERGENCE looming around. And as you can see, the consumer sentiment always turns before the market bottoms or peaks. Also, some people have argued that we've been in a recession that started late last year around the time SPY broke below the trend line from the 2009 lows. Remember that this is only one of the many red flags out there (Feds cutting rate, QE4 (or whatever you wanna call), BREXIT, The Deal, Hong-Kong (it's still happening)) that have kept me bearish on the market for while and that this analysis in not trying to 'time' the market, only predict the direction. As always... ***Let's talk about it...***
AMEX:SPYShort
by PartTimeGenius
1
Interesting divergence SPY/XLYI was messing around with my charts and noticed that SPY and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) are diverging. Looking back in time - with the exception of one littler divergence a couple years ago - I can't find anywhere else this has happened. Is this maybe a sign that the consumer is getting overly confident? When fear is turned off, things eventually get out of control. The other thing I noticed is that XLP (Consumer Staples) is gapping away from SPY and XLY to the upside. Guess when the last time XLP gapped away from SPY and XLY?? Yep, you guessed it! It was last year right before the market tanked. This would also (maybe) be a sign that consumers are getting overly confident.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bankuur
XLY - Strategic PartnershipAuxly just landed a strategic partnership and cash investment from Imperial Brands. Does that mean the bottom is in? This could be the start of a new bull run. The sling shot upward could explain why the indicators are topping out. With strong fundamentals and cash position, perhaps we'll see XLY start trending upward, to perhaps as much as $1.60 by October. Levels on watch, trade safe! PS. look for a member called MNOVO, if you want to learn about these Gann Boxes.
X
by Barkworth
EPISODE 7/11: US CONSUMER DISC-CYCLICALITY AND BULLISH TRENDLINEEpisode 7/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart: XLY- Consumer Discretionary sector index has proven to be one of or if not the best performing sector since 2009. "Rubber-band" theory of recessions does support this bounce in performance based on the negative sentiment in 2009 during which the Discretionary sector was one of the worse performing benchmarks. This is mainly because of the strong correlation of XLY to the economic cycle. Following the close above 42$ in 2011-12, which top was formed prior to the recession; XLY has been in a bullish channel supported by a strong bullish momentum. This can be seen from the chart as buyers have always found strength in the 14/21 Monthly EMA's (blue lines) . It doesn't get more bullish than this. Part of the reason for the recent good performance since Trump took office is 2016 is the tax cuts , which directly translated into more disposable income available for discretionary investments . The upside targets have been labelled, but this is with the assumption that a US-China trade deal will go through and Trump will win 2020 . The structural supports are labelled as support zones . There is really not much to analyse based on the chart. This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! -Step_Ahead_ofthemarket- Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors: EPISODE 6 : US MATERIALS ( XLB ) : EPISODE 5 : US INDUSTRIALS ( XLI ) :
AMEX:XLY
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
CPRI (KORS) Looks good from here!Shares of CPRI (formerly KORS) have esatablished a new uptrend (white line) after breaking out of a downward trend (red line)... That downward trend has also served as support, which bodes well. The OBV is improving and demonstates buyers are gaining control, and technical indicators like RSI and MACD seem to validate the bullish thesis. I'm long both shares and calls, but its worth noting that earnings are due out in 11 days. I'll try to post my "Oscillator" chart setup in the comment section below, as they all are signaling buy. Happy trading!
NYSE:CPRILong
by EchoAlphaBravo
2
Up in Smoke? Nope, just getting lit!Shares of MO have been under tremendous pressure since the FDA mentioned banning methol cigs/e-flavors, but don't let that fool you. This cash cow has plenty of firepower to withstand this minor hiccup and as shown on the chart, has fallen exactly to trend line support going back to 1969 (almost 50 years). This is a screaming buy! I'm already long shares, selling covered calls against to boost income. I'm adding aggressively on this decline. I'd do the same if I were you!
NYSE:MOLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
Take Away: Restaurant Spending Continue to DeclineSeptember's retail sales increased less than expected, partly due to the 1.8 percent decline in restaurant spending. This was the worst decline since 2016. Partly blamed on Hurricane Florence, that static is likely to be tuned out and the trend of mean reverting to continue after Q2-18's record $3.5B in sales - the strongest in almost 30 years. BLMN is expected to report earnings of .07 cents on October 29, but we should focus on the reality that comps are likely to disappoint following such a great second quarter. We're seeing weakening comps in strong companies like DPZ and DRI. Moreover, Bloomin' has board & mgmt issues that remain unresolved. I believe their is more of a macro play to restaurants, though. Real consumer spending has outpaced real disposable income two of the last four months, but there has been little movement in disposable income. Furthermore, food and beverage spending has followed both the trajectory of U.S. inflation and growth gains since the 2016 election. Q4-18 could be a difficult one for U.S. consumers and restaurant spending could decline in order to fund other consumption. Earnings matter, but this is a trend call.
NASDAQ:BLMNShort
by TheMacroStrategist