AUXLY - Techincal AnalysisDear Traders,
After a 116% run, AUXLY is arming it self for a new breakout. Price action is above the 55,100 and 200 ema on the hourly Chart, which is bullish. The MACD just crossed downwards, which should be bearish, we will know soon. If AUXLY's price manages to stay above those EMA's, I would enter a trade. That 200 ema looks like a perfect entry point.
A breakout above 1.25 would confirm that this is a bullish trend. BUT that 200 ema must hold.
About Auxly Cannabis Group Inc.
Cannabis Wheaton Income Corp is an investment and merchant company. It seeks to provide investor returns through streams and capital appreciation in the cannabis industry of Canada.
XLY
Obscure Retailer Worth Owning: Ingles MarketsIMKTA is a failry unheard of grocery chain, as it is most prevalent in my neck of the woods in Tennessee (specifically East TN). But their small size shouldn't deter you, as they are delivering great results.
The most recent report featured a beat and a raise on guidance. Based on FY2018 estimates, it's trading at 11.5x (vs 5yr average of 15.8x). The P/S ratio is a mere 0.16, and it's trading about 0.42x it's enterprise value ($1.52bil enterprise value vs. $642mil market cap). Also, it's trading at about 1.16x book value ($28.64/share).
Earnings have grown significantly as cost cutting measures implemented have bolstered the bottom line. E.P.S. was up 112.3% vs the same quarter last year; on a t.t.m. vs previous t.t.m. basis, earnings are up 102.5%. Gross margins and operating margins have improved significantly, too, and they are better than peers by a wide margin. R.O.E. over the past twelve months has been 17.9%; R.O.I over the past twelve months has been 6.6%.
Total debt/assets on a trailing twelve month basis is 50%, but they have made meaningful strides paying down debt, as well as buying back shares.
They pay a decent dividend of 2.1%, but with the low payout ratio of 13.6%, I suspect we'll see some growth in that dividend very soon.
I bought on the last dip to sub-$30's by taking delivery on calls that worked out perfectly. Now I'm looking to add... in fact, I've had orders in the past 2 days that didn't hit my price and fill. But there's a good chance I get an order to fill today. Why am I quick to buy?
Shares have pulled back perfectly to the 61.8% retracement of the last advance, and that coincides with the 50dsma, which recently had a bullish cross over the 100dsma. I suspect we'll see the 50 rise back above the 200 soon. Support is at $31.60 (where it's at... confluence of moving average support and two Fibonacci retracement supports), with additional support at $30.00. We need to have a stop loss set slightly under the lows at $27.50 (I doubt we'll need it).
This is a great name to consider for a small chain store (especially my East Tennessee kinfolk) with excellent fundamentals, and it's done exactly as planned by pulling back after a nice rally. So I'm adding, period. Forget the KR, WMT, COST, TGT, and other big box names... this is the one to own!
PS - Option open interest has calls outnumbering puts by 5.7:1 (vs average 4.4:1), so options traders appear to be favoring the long side, too.
BUY BUY BUY!
Happy trading!
XLY Elliott Wave View: Trading At Equal Legs ExtremeXLY ended the cycle from 08/02 low (109.99) at the peak of 09/20 at 118.23 in blue wave (3).
Below from there, the ETF has been correcting that cycle in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings.
From 09/20 peak XLY has reached the equal legs area towards 115.55-114.95. The internals of that pullback has been unfolding as an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction. The first leg lower ended red wave A at 09/24 low (115.72). Above from there, it ended red wave B pullback at 10/01 peak (118.14).
The internals of that pullback unfolded as an Elliott Wave Double correction which ended black wave ((w)) at 09/26 peak (117.76), black wave ((x)) pullback at 09/26 low (116.65) and finally black wave ((y)) of red wave B at 10/01 peak (118.14). Below from there, it reached the mentioned equal legs area (blue box) and it should see soon a bounce higher.
Currently, it is trading at the equal legs extreme area (blue box) of red A-B and soon it should end blue wave (4). Afterwards, the ETF is expected to find buyers looking for new highs or for 3 wave bounce at least as long as pivot at 113.98 stays intact.
$XLY Bearish Credit SpreadXLY Bearish Credit Spread - Opened. XLY leaning very bearish this morning (Monday) with a possible movement to test the 115 area as expected.
Entry 116.11.
Break Even 116.68.
1.7:1 r/r
Even with the heightened volatility this week, we will let this spread expire as it has a defined risk and reward.
GM Testing SupportsShares of GM are looking interesting right here, right now.
Fundamentally, shares are cheap at 5.8x forward estimates. They also sport a 4.3% dividend that looks safe for the foreseeable future.
The technical setup is what has me buying. Shares are testing a confluence of supports: an upward sloping trend line going back several years, previously held support at about $35, and the 200-week moving average.
Much like Ford (F), this looks like a good holding to sell calls against to boost income while you wait for the next cycle to begin.
I'm starting a small position today and will be adding on weakness. A stop loss will be about 10% below, as I intend on this being a longer-term position and want to give it room.
General Market OverviewThis video is the first of many, and I discuss the behaviors of the sectors and potential markets that are poised to trend in the near future. The "freshest" sectors quietly trying to start a new trend are the Industrial and Consumer Discretionary Sectors. The sectors (along with their industries) I think should be on every trend follower's radar are:
XLF - Financials Sector (including some real estate stocks): setting up to break out of its 5 month range; main movers are the bank industry (not the Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kind of banks)
XLI - Industrials Sector: breaking out today with the possible trend beginning here in an unpopular sector; main movers are the service industries
XLK - Technology Sector: obvious uptrend that should be followed with caution, but is getting ready to continue; main movers are the software and IT services & consulting industries
XLP - Consumer Staples Sector: in early stages on uptrend with possible correction or continuation in the near future; moved by multiple industries
XLRE - Real Estate Sector: also in the early stages of possible uptrend; main movers of sub-sector have been REITs
XLU - Utilities Sector: also in the early stages of possible uptrend; main movers are electric utilities industry
XLV - Health Care Sector: uptrend already in motion with test of all-time highs today, with great potential for trend continuation; main movers are medical equipment and managed health care industries
XLY - Consumer Discretionary Sector: breaking out today with the possible trend beginning here in a sector where the media does not favor much; main movers are the apparel, discount, footwear and auto industries (mostly retail)
I am going to do more videos on how I diversify my portfolio, and how to create such a portfolio according to what is moving in the whole market so it would be great to get feedback from this video that I can include in those, and also ideas on material you would like to see more of!
Thanks, enjoy.
Risk on/Risk off, XLY:XLP ratios, THE Real money flow indicator.Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc
So what does it all mean??
The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing.
The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example. Its not a hypothetical as it uses real money data based on what investors are DOING and NOT what they maybe thinking or projecting...
XLY represents the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF.
XLP represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF.
XLY is the ETF which tracks the consumer
discretionary sector XLY’s top 5 holdings are...
Comcast (CMCSK),
Walt Disney (DIS),
Amazon.com (AMZN),
Home Depot (HD),
McDonald’s (MCD).
XLP tracks the consumer staples sector, with
top holdings of...
Procter & Gamble (PG),
Coca-Cola (KO),
Philip Morris (PM),
Wal-Mart (WMT),
CVS Caremark (CVS).
So how does this affect markets?
When the chart value rises its a clear indicator that people are happy to spend freely and without caution, investors will look to increase risk, where as if the value starts to go down and decline, people are spending more on everyday essential items and thus stock markets are in shrinkage, decline and investors are taking LESS risk.
we can clearly see how this chart reflects current highs on the stock indices if we compare to the current S&P500, Russel, Dow Jones and so on
If this article has helped or you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments below.....
KORS Breaking OutShares of KORS appear to be breaking out to the upside from a bull flag formation on the weekly chart. Previous resistance at $70 should act as support to confirm.
Longer-term resistance overhead at $75, the 61.8% retracement from the all-time highs north of $100 to the subsequent lows at $33.
The target from the flag is around $82-85, which would coincide nicely with the 78.6% retracement at $86 of the aforementioned high to low.
Look for the breakout to be confirmed with a weekly close above $70 and a successful retest of that level before shares ramp higher.
Long XLYLong XLY over 105 into HD earnings next week. On trend line edge looking for upside to 106 then 107. Bollinger bands suggest an increase in volatility soon as they tighten.
Ofensive Sector vs Defensive Sector on SPXOfensive Sector (Tech + Discretionary) vs Defensive Sector (Utils + Staples) on SPX index.
Investors are officially not worried about the dipWell , we broke the highs in this pair. This shows that investors still think that the dip was as its called , a dip. I will be watching the first zone demarcated by the rectangle. That's the floor and should hold, if not , We are in for a rough ride.
Expect strengthLately we've been seeing out performance vs SPX in tech XLK, financials XLF and consumer discretionary XLY. I think we have no reason not to expect strength in XBI biotech to pick up some steam in the weeks to come.
Bounce Monday set upWell, at least not all sectors in out right sell mod coming into Monday. There is some hope the accelerated down trend will take a reprieve. I did for get to show XLF and XLB. They both are still lagging other indices. Bottom line XLU, XLK and XLE looking better. XLY, XLI, and XLV ugly. IWM looks best for a trend reversal Monday.
Please leave comments below and follow me on the platform.
How much will overbought Consumer Cyclicals Sector Fall? XLYThe Consumer Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently at its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 70.8987. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. The three previous overbought levels are annotated with the vertical blue line on the chart above. The drop from this overbought level occurred on all occasions, but the near-term drop in February was minimal.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 17.4983. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been stuck in a positive but limited channel since December 2016. This indicator has begun to move up again. Although this is a delayed indicator, it may point to upward movement for the fund.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1761 and the negative is at 0.7501. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been slow moving but currently show the fund moving up.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. All similar stochastic overbought levels since the election are annotated on the chart above with a vertical orange line. All seven instances lead to a drop in the fund.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
MCD. McDonalds: Daily chart setting bearish divergencesMCD has been raising alongside the market but, while the whole market (as well as XLY fund) added around 30% since 2016 lows, MCD was only able to push up a half of it.
On one side, the stock potentially is underperforming but technicals say it has a very strong resistance to break. Daily chart shows bearish divergence, same as Weekly timeframe, and we are very close to the Median Line of the Fork.
I believe shorts are welcome once the price goes to a double-top formation in 132-134 area. SL can be set at 136.5 with TP1 at 121 and TP2 at 111
Long Term Sector RotationSPX vs Major Sectors. I added IBB to cover Biotech.
Please comment. My understanding at this point is to stay in sectors which have good fundamentals and have been relative laggards. The 3 bottom ones at this point seem to be Financials, Technology and XLU / XLP.
Since utilities is a risk-averse sector, so in a pro-growth environment I may want to go with the other 3. XLB is like the coyote / fox from Mickey mouse that runs a few meters off the cliff thinking its still running on solid ground before realizing that there's nothing below it and then falls like a rock. Great if you can time it right.
WYNN range bound 88.5-105simple chart, WYNN is range bound and WILL hit 88.5 in Dec2016. stops at 107.5, limit order in at 88.75
Short XLY (Long term 1 year)Long term trade here. Consumer spending in the US not likely to return. Higher borrowing costs with house hold debt near all time highs is not doing anyone any good.
Defensive sector vs. Cyclical SectorAs long as utilities' performance is weaker against cyclical, we can expect bull market to continue - i.e. expect the ratio (price) to stay inside the channel.
If the ratio (price) breaks the channel above, asset managers are moving more aggressively to defensive stocks, which means that they are anticipating that the economy is slowing significantly - i.e. the bull market to be over. The ratio has been staying higher since the end of the last year, but it has had problems to move out of the channel.
However, daily & weekly Golden Cross is close to happen (50-moving average to cross above 200-moving average), but since June ratio has been making lower lows and lower highs. This is a important ratio to watch. Use this to anticipate overall stock market movement.
XLY: A technical overview of top 3 weighted holdingsSummary: Comcast and Home Depot dragging down price. Amazon is keeping it from falling further
