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XOM

THE WEEK AHEAD: EBAY, FB, MSFT, BABA, AAPL, XOM EARNINGSMore earnings ... . EBAY announces on the 31st (Wednesday) after market open: implied volatility percentile/rank 72/background 33. FB, on the 31st after: 90/34 MSFT, also on the 31st after: 100/29 BABA, on February 1st before: 94/40 AAPL, on February 1st after: 97/30 XOM, on February 2nd before: 91/19 Of these, BABA looks the most promising. Preliminarily, the Feb 9th 192.5/222.5 20 delta short strangle pays 4.71 at the mid, with its defined risk counterpart -- the Feb 9th 187.5/192.5/222.5/227 iron condor -- paying 1.77. On the exchange traded fund front: While there are underlyings with implied volatility in the greater than 70 percentiles, background implied remains muted, so these are likely to be of limited productiveness. Here are the top five: IYR (100/17); FXI (100/27); XLU (93/17); XLB (87/18). Volatility products: While VIX finished Friday lower to 11.08, futures didn't follow suit and were off only between .05-.10 across the term structure. Feb was off .10, but the March contract actually finished up by .05, meaning that neither VXX nor UVXY were down much. While I'm not in a position to read the minds of /VX futures traders, my guess is that they're positioning anew for the expiry of the continuing resolution that expires on February 8th (that play wasn't particularly productive the last go-round) or, more likely, a debt ceiling showdown in March, which has far more important ramifications for the market than a government shut-down, since a debt ceiling actually involves U.S. default concerns (historically, virtually illusory), while a failure to fund the government does not. In any event, I missed the opening of the March 9th weekly in VXX to put on my weekly short volatility play, and have spreads on in the monthly at current levels (short leg at 27), so will look to add in spreads in the March 23rd when it opens. Granted, what I have on looks a little battered here, particularly in the late February, early March expiries. The only thing to do is be patient, wait, and see whether the futures succumb to pressure to unload at least their February contracts so they're not left holding the bag and then to roll out for duration if particular spreads can't be taken off in profit or scratched out at expiry ... .
NYSE:BABA
by NaughtyPines
4
XLE for SaleXLE is in a larger uptrend from last February - it has pulled back to a consolidation range - there is large volume on the recent down move, these are buyers to me - this sector is lagging the over all market - we are entering seasonally bullish period for oil I'm a buyer here, now that can be buying the underline, leveraged buying the underline, or selling volatility in the underline. The way of getting long is up to the individual. This is not a short term position (multi year).
AMEX:XLELong
by UnknownUnicorn103267
Exxon Mobil showing fresh signs of improvementThe gap above the USD89.37 range high of September is extending. Momentum is improving on both weekly and monthly charts. Relative to both the SPX and the Energy Index, XOM is showing fresh signs of outperformance. This suggests potential for a run towards the USD95.00/55 area, where fresh consolidation could develop as overbought weekly stochastics unfold. Following consolidation, background studies see scope for still further gains into the coming months.
NYSE:XOM
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK