HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made.
MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play.
I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.)
Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine.
Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals.
There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
XOM
Pairing CVX and XOMCVX reached a major Monthly Resistance in the past week and today saw major volume in sold shares and bought Puts which drew my attention. CVX Option volatility is still above average so the best play would be buying Vertical Put Spreads. Buying the September 16 95/92.5 Spread for $0.58 yields a greater than 3:1 Reward/Risk if it reaches max profit. I'm aiming for a 8.5% bearish move with earnings one month away to act as a catalyst which is reasonable.
The best company to hedge the short trade with in terms of industry and market cap is XOM. For the hedge to match the risk and movement I went with the October 16 95/97.5 Call Spread for $0.60. I'm aiming for a 8.5% bullish move and this stock also has earnings on the same date a month away.
Expectancy on this trade is 54% with 2.4:1 Reward/Risk.
"UPDATE STATUS IN ENERGY" $CL_F $USO $DWTI $UWTI $Oil $XLE $DTO CRUDE FOUND BALANCE AND WAS MET WITH SELLERS AT THE HIGH....
WATCH FOR AREA AT 41.80 -40.00 FOR A POSSIBLE LAUNCH TO RETEST THE HIGHS...
WE NEED TO CLEAR THE AREA OF RESISTANCE TO ACT THE $55 MAGNET AREA.
ANY FAILURE WILL SEND THIS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER BASE
"STALKING PRICE"$CL_F $USO $DWTI $UWTI $Oil $XLE $DTO $UCO $CVX DESCRIPTION ON CHART.....
PRICE IS GETTING READY TO CHOOSE ITS LAUNCH
FROM THE BOX...