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XOM

SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the CourseTraders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low has seen volume under the 20-day average. On balance volume is not supporting this move. Next, when deciphering a mere pullback following a steep decline or an inflection point, think what is the "smart money" doing? Simple. They've been selling to the dumb money for the last five weeks . Corporate buybacks continue to be the only demand in US equities. Fundamentally, the index is highly expensive versus historical valuations. At a 21.79 P/E, the SPX is over 5 points over its mean. It's over 11 points higher that the "sweet spot." Shiller P/E, which tracks 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is at 24.98 (also, historically expensive outside a recession). Furthermore, earnings are, indeed, rolling over (along with the business cycle) while real earnings growth is cratering at -14.5 percent. Last time that happen, the US saw a recession in the early-90s, the recession following the tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. See that here ! Aside from there lack of conviction with permabulls being scooped up in buyback fever, the index is about 160 points of its most recent low. Yesterday, price action closed at daily resistance at 1,978 and near the 50% Fib. level from this years epic start. If it can close above these two levels, the next level that is key is 2,020. If bulls overtake this level a potential retest of 2,071 is probable. However, this is how I believe it will go as the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed continues to be out of place: A bear market scenario like those that followed the tech bubble and financial crisis would put the SPX near 1,078. This year, we've also seen SocGen's Albert Edwards forecast a potential 75% decline for the broader index. 17 months ago, I published a chart showing a whopping 71% potential decline in SPY from then current levels . Granted, this was merely based on historical references and calculation, but interesting nontheless. Will you get a chair when the music stops? Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
6
Exxon Mobil, and the Energy SectorWith Oil prices hitting new lows every now and then, it’s hard to believe that pump prices in Singapore barely move an inch while the Energy Sector’s valuations have been dropping. The Sector’s performance move in tandem with oil prices, as higher prices would allow them to realise more revenue. That equates to more funding for oil exploration, but with oil at such low prices, it’s hard for these companies to break even, not to mention investing in such projects. Being a technical analyst, I believe that charts tell more stories than fundamentals do. Personally, I have used charts to “forecast” news, whether if they meet analyst projections or not, and have thus further convinced me that technical analysis is the way to go. The chart which I have picked out today would be that of Exxon Mobil, which I have mentioned in my previous post. Just like any other Oil and Gas company, Exxon Mobil’s stock price has been falling from a peak of 104.72 in 2014, to 66.55 in August last year. This puts the stock under my watchlist as I hunt down stocks that has been oversold due to market sentiments rather than fundamental reasons. Based on an article written by Alexander Valtsev on Seeking Alpha, he has issued a “HOLD” rating on this stock for an increase in risk in the company due to the low oil prices that would cause revenue to stagnate. However, he did mention that Exxon Mobil is fundamentally better than other players in the market, which is crucial in our stock pick. In this market conditions, we have to choose the cream of the crop to reduce our risk exposure and maximizing our returns. Technically speaking, the stock has been hovering at the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 24 August 2015 to 2 November 2015. With an increase in trading volume at that level, along with a combination of bullish candlestick patterns, this is one stock that is bound to rally in time to come. My target price for this stock is $92, which is approximately a 18% gain from current price levels. My opinion of the oil and gas industry would be that oil prices are in the midst of consolidating, and 2016 might be the year where oil prices would slowly regain its true value. What are your thoughts of the Oil and Gas Industry, as well as Exxon Mobil? If you'd like my post, do visit me at www.houtiantan.com for more frequent market updates!
NYSE:XOMLong
by HouTianTan
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- GOOG, CMG, GILD, XOM, LINKDAnd earnings season slogs on ... . Next week there are bunch of biggies, but not all of them are worthwhile options setup plays, primarily due to liquidity. GOOG's option liquidity has never been the greatest, and CMG and LNKD have always been horrid, so right off the bat I would pass on those for options plays. GILD -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) after market close. The options have fairly good liquidity, and its implied volatility rank is currently at 74. XOM -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) before market open. Good liquidity, but the implied vol rank is not where I'd like to see it; it's currently 54, a contraction no doubt due to the bit of strength in oil we've seen the past week ... . Moreover, with the volatility still hanging in there in the broader market (VIX is still marginally over 20), I can afford to be picky and/or not play earnings at all, since my tendency is to slack off earnings plays when the VIX above 15 and go for plays in the broader index ETF's like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA ... . Nevertheless, I'll look at a setup at least in GILD and keep an eye on XOM to see if volatility ramps up to where I'd like to see it (70+ in percentile rank).
NASDAQ:GOOG
by NaughtyPines
XOM Resistances and SupportsHmm. Who is going to benefit the most from oil prices going up? Maybe the biggest integrated and hedged oil company in the business? You betcha. I bought calls on XOM at the 72.50 strike 3 trading days ago and got in with a $73 price entry. I'm planning to ride XOM up until it hits resistance at 1 of my two target points highlighted in green. I have highlighted key points of resistance and support as a nice visual. I bought it only $6 away from its 52 Week low and I am planning on closing it at the $82.50-$87.25 price range. I will keep you guys updated. Ryan
NYSE:XOMLong
by Ryanhasoptions
1