XOM $107 Price TargetReally love how we’ve held this $105 level on XOM. I’m hoping to play calls from one of these supply zones that I anticipate becoming demand around $105 and $105.75 and riding upside.
4h on left, 15m on right.
XOM
Elliott Wave Impulse Decline in XOM Suggests Further DownsideShort term Elliott Wave view in Exxon Mobil (ticker: NYSE:XOM ) suggests that the decline from 4.28.2023 high took the form of a 5 waves impulse. Down from 4.28.2023 high, wave (1) ended at 115.64 and rally in wave (2) ended at 117.30. The stock resumes lower again afterwards. Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 114.45 and rally in wave 2 ended at 115.22. Stock resumes lower again in wave 3 towards 109.29 and wave 4 rally ended at 111.39. Final leg wave 5 ended at 108.15 which ended wave (3). Stock then rallies higher in wave (4) towards 109.81 and then extends lower in wave (5) towards 105.5. This completed wave ((A)) in higher degree.
Wave ((B)) is currently in progress to correct cycle from 4.28.2023 high. Internal subdivision of wave ((B)) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((A)), wave A ended at 109 and dips in wave B ended at 105.80. Wave C higher ended at 110.97 which completed wave (W). Pullback in wave (X) ended at 108.1 and the stock has resumed higher again. Potential target higher for wave (Y) is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W) which comes at 113.5 – 116.8. Near term, as far as pivot at 119.9 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
XOM to ~$122.25There are worse bets to make than XOM to ~$122.25. It has passed a few significant external peaks and is on it's way through the last peak from Feb.
If it manages this $122.25 could be in the cards. A swift pass through $122.25 would make the probability of $131.26 higher as well.
$XOM: Uptrend signal in the daily and weeklyExxon🛢️ has nice upside here according to Time@Mode which makes me think it could beat expectations and shoot up and trend steadily for some time.
The company reports earnings this Friday, and is expected to post a $2.606 profit per share, and $85.648 billion dollars of revenue.
Valuation highlights:
Price to Book ratio of 2.46
Price to Free cash flow ratio of 10.80
EPS growth of 32.60% for the past 5 years
LT Debt to Equity of 0.21
P/E ratio of 8.74
Price to sales ratio of 1.18 times sales
Both weekly and daily trends are bullish and suggest price can hit the following targets by the following dates (or sooner):
🎯123.70 to 132.17 by May 11th 2023
🎯134.52 to 164.04 by July 21st 2023
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Looking to End 5 Waves Elliott Wave ImpulseExxon Mobil (XOM) cycle from 3.20.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.20.2023 low, wave (1) ended at 107.35 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 100.68 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 110.17 and wave 2 ended at 109.05. Wave 3 ended at 114.64, wave 4 ended at 112.20. Final wave 5 ended at 116.85 which completed wave (3) in higher degree.
Wave (4) pullback took the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave A ended at 114.17, and wave B ended at 117.18. Wave C lower ended at 113.6 which completed wave (4). Wave (5) is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal structure. Up from wave (4), wave 1 ended at 116.59 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 114.16. Wave 3 ended at 117.56 and dips in wave 4 ended at 115.50. Near term, expect XOM to extend higher to complete wave 5 of (5) of ((1)) before cycle from 3.20.2023 low ends and the stock see a larger degree pullback. As far as pivot at 100.68 low stays intact, expect the stock to extend the final leg higher before ending cycle from 3.20.2023 low.
RIG technical Breakdown on Lower guidanceRIG may be signaling some weakness in the energy sector.
This heavily indebted stock has massive movement when oil is strong but the same can be said when oil is wweak.
Poor guidance knocking & breaking the trend...On watch for continuation.
XOM: $117 Price Target?XOM has been ranging for a few weeks now, Getting back towards the HKEX:114 lows and it looks like that we have taken some liquidity and tested demand. Ideally, I'd grab a position from this demand zone but we will see what tomorrow brings us. Definitely wouldn't fight that HKEX:117 top and should be used as a target or potential short.
WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58.When it comes to oil, it was supposed to do the super moon back to $120 thing when Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party finally stopped welding people in their homes and going full blown technocratic social credit while humans tried to "fight" Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID-19), but for one reason or another, the pump never got off the ground.
Probably because a whole lot more than the 87,468 people Xi and his CCP claim to have died from the disease are actually dead, and so demand is just legit in the toilet and industry can't get going, because China has big time problems stemming from its 23-year-long persecution of Falun Gong, which includes the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting (they've done it to Uyghurs too), and the Party's outright fetish for human rights, freedom of speech, and freedom of belief abuses.
Being bullish on "China" is a totally separate thing from being bullish on "the Chinese Communist Party." One is extremely wise, while the other is totally moronic.
Totalitarian regimes never last a long time, and the Party has already had more than a century. Clinging to Marxism is like clinging to the Titanic when it's 5/6ths of the way under the water.
When it comes to WTI oil, both the fundamentals and the price action are strange. This is a commodity that you don't want to be very bearish on after it traded at literally $0 during 2020's western COVID pseudopandemic theatre hysterics. Yet, while oil also isn't liking to go down, it isn't liking to go up.
In October, I had a pretty accurate call that WTI would plink the $70 range.
WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict
And a pretty good call in September too when everyone was convinced oil could never trade low again
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls
But the ultimate endgame of the calls, $50, has not manifested. It seems as if perhaps these prices won't manifest, and it's almost time for the uppy.
There's some problems with this narrative, however.
The key factor is that the United States and its vassal states (including Canada) are the world's largest producers of oil, by far. Russia and OPEC combined are really the only challengers, but the US has the advantage in that you need the USD to buy oil, and so ultimately the Biden Administration is the legit market maker.
The problem with the bull thesis is that the SPR was filled at $29.70 over the years while Biden and friends sold half of it off in the $80s and $90s. This inherently tells you not that they're trying to destroy themselves, but just that they're short on crude oil.
The news in December, right after oil wicked the $70 mark, was that the Biden Admin was buying it all back .
But then in January, the tune changed as the US Government said "The bids didn't come in low enough, so we haven't bought yet." Media says they want to buy around $70.
And this brings us to our very strange price action in WTI.
Crude has a gap at $85-86 and combines with a Dec. 1 pivot around $83, while recent trading activity was a triple top of successive lows at $82~.
Then we dumped to $72, but did not make a new low, and have since bounced back to $80.
All of this combines to give us no reason to believe that a hybrid short-killer/breakout trader-crusher play is not about to be made around the $88 level.
This gives us 10% to the upside, which is really quite nice to work with when WTI trades 1,000 barrel lots and you also have access to the leveraged ETFs like UCO and SCO.
But the bottom is not in. Look at the weekly candles.
Oil just hasn't retested the long-term trendline from late 2021, and in combination with the US Government having been unwilling to refill the SPR at $75+, should give you all the reason in the world to be extra cautious with going long as more than a scalp.
Under $60 **combining** with media chatter that Democrats are refilling the SPR is where you want to go long. And if you do it right, you'll get the bottom for what will quickly turn into $180.
2023 is going to be a wild year starting in July. If humanity makes it to 2024, it will be even more of a ride.
TL;DR: Long to $88 --> Short to $55, and start treating Bloomberg's Javier Blass like Jim Cramer. Trade against the narrative. Be patient. It's too early for the next moon, yet $120 in '22 was no top.
This should combine with natural gas being on the cusp of pumping:
Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming
Be careful, and trade safe.
XOM to $114 or below?Trying to redeem myself from earlier this week and being wrong on XOM. Currently have supply right around $116.85 but we did close a candle above the high signifying a potential upside move. However, it looks we are taking sell side liqiduity in this supply zone and should have enough momentum to take us down to $114 and possibly the low at $113.
Start of formation of potential bull flag on XOMThis is a chart I am watching with high interest. I use XOM quite often as a hedge to my tech heavy portfolio. Between gold and XOM calls I can utilize these calls as hedges to the overall SPY and NASDAQ.
XOM $118+ Price TargetWith this pennant structure forming and demand under $116, I think we get a pullback into the demand zone sometime tomorrow upcoming days to push us to $118+.
Short on Exxon Mobil. XOMHere we have a running or expanded flap developing, and as usual, looking to profit on the final le
XOM- BULLISH SCENARIOExxon Mobil is one of the world’s largest and most successful companies. Its operations alone produce more income than the GDP of various small countries.
The company has a pipeline of key projects in the Permian – the most prolific basin in the United States – and offshore Guyana. In the Permian, ExxonMobil has an inventory of more than 8,000 well locations, with the integrated energy major estimating a net of 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable resources. In offshore Guyana, it made several discoveries that XOM estimated at more than 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable resource.
In the long term, the price is expected to continue the uptrend in the price channel with a price target of $ 124.
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is Oil about to breakdown?Oil has hit some near term support at the weekly 200 MA but don't be fooled by this level. Its no longer a major support level.
If tomorrows weekly close closes outside of the white wedge pattern this chart looks extremely vulnerable to more downside.
XOM, Possible Long Term Play with around 200 targetExxon Mobil Corporation stock MAY see around 200 USD price in up coming years !
Today, we are going to investigate one of the giant oil companies. XOM has completed a complete ascending wave cycle from 1970 to 2020 . Impulsive section of this wave cycle was between 1970 and 2014 and corrective section started at 104.76 (former ATH) on 2014 and lasted for 6 years . On Mar 2020 stock bottomed with double bottom pattern at 30.11 USD around 0.786 Retracement level of the whole large time frame bull run. This complete wave cycle can be labeled as primary degree wave 1 and 2 of the larger degree wave cycle ( cycle degree).
After end of primary degree wave 2 , a considerable up side move started which strongly broke multi years down trend line and reclaimed the ATH ( actually made a new one ). This strong and steep up going wave can be considered as primary degree wave 3 which can push the stock up to around 200 USD. This primary degree wave 3 can itself be divided to 5 intermediate wave degree and I suppose currently we are in wave 4 (minor degree ) of wave 1 (intermediate degree) of 3 ( Primary degree ).
What all above explanation means? It means most probably we have an up side move from around 78 to around 116 USD . Then , a considerable correction of intermediate degree wave 2 of primary degree wave 3 may start which can hammer down stock to around 63 USD . After that , most powerful and steep wave will start which can break the upper bond dynamic resistance ( as this the typical character of wave 3 of 3) and lead the stock to above 150 USD. All other predicted wave moves are shown on the chart.
Therefore, I certainly keep XOM in my watch list to open a profitable long position in appropriate time ( most probably in up coming weeks).
Please note our chart is in monthly time frame and there may be many fluctuations in up coming weeks and days. In addition, timing on the chart may become incorrect as timing is the most difficult task in charting. Also I kindly ask you to keep in mind this is before the fact long term prediction and normally it may need some updates in future.
I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
$XLE - Weakness in the Energy Sector Could Bring Stage 4 DeclineThe Energy sector is notoriously one of the last to roll over in a recessionary environment and the $XLE chart appears to be topping out right on queue.
After a euphoric run beginning in the middle of 2020, the Energy sector has stalled out creating a triple top near the $90 level.
With the break of the 200-day moving average, along with an accompanying bearish momentum regime in the RSI, we expect the Energy sector to begin its descent into a Stage 4 decline.
Many individual stocks within the Energy sector look prime for capitulation events and accompanying sector weakness would further aggravate already anemic charts.
PT near 60.
XOM breaking downWith the recent weakness in Oil and natural gas, its likely impacting the performance of XOM stocks going forward. XOM is testing some key areas. If the levels break the target on XOM is $100.00
OIL going to make BIG move soon1/2
We sold most longs in #OIL, trailing position left
Been going long $UCO & shorting puts @ lows
We want back in, why?
There's something brewing in middle east area
More on this later
Chart is too much, explain in next post
$USO $CVX $XOM $MPC $SUN
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2/2
Short term #oil is on a slight uptrend (white)
It also more recently trades in channel (yellow)
Longer term it's HUGE Head & Shoulder (top)
If there is #war is larger conflict in middle east $UCO & oil will rally hard
However, if there's nothing, it'll crater, temporarily
$XOM: Strong uptrendNice setup here in $XOM, new 52 week highs on higher than average volume with a Time@Mode trend signal confirmation this week. Monthly and yearly trends are up, overall oil stocks could continue being the best prospect with a potential rebound in inflation figures coming next, Russia 'cutting' production (likely forced to do so by the effect of crippling sanctions) and China reopening boosting aviation fuel demand, while the economy possibly dodges a recession, and business investment goes back to pre-pandemic trend levels, among other factors. The latest State of the Union speech has likely contributed to weakness in US Treasury bonds, and coupled with NFP might have triggered rotation back into value/energy from growth names ahead of CPI data.
All in all, low risk to follow this development and be positioned in value stocks and particularly energy for the coming months (and likely years).
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Oil is screaming...what should we be aware of?Oil the leading energy commodity is signaling negative price action.
An MTop Formation is on watch. If we get a weekly close below $70 it triggers the Topping formation and sways the probabilities in favor's for more downside action.
This large time frame pattern has a potential to go down to $20...I know, I can barely believe it myself.
A clear weekly reversal rejection has been observed off a key resistance. Downward momentum is in play.
Next potential but level im watching is $65/$66 as oil will have technical support bounces.
Is XOM a sell for the rest of this week? $110 or below?I have been patiently waiting for a break above $114.16 on XOM. (Typically very even level resistance and support levels are great traps to reverse us the opposite direction of the initial breakout) When we got it we immediately fell below on the retest, leading me to believe this is a false breakout to trap buyers from more volume based on earnings. Additionally, once we started selling above $117, we reclaimed the zone and retested earlier this morning and immediately rejecting all the way back down o $113. If the potential lower high is at $115.84 and can stay under $116, I think there's room to $110 or below.
Fed day is over, have we already had our fun for this week?
ERY - Signaling weakness in Energy?ERY is on the verge of breaking out of a falling wedge from the lows of the chart. Very likely to see a breakout here.
If it fails we will see the lower wedge act as next major support level.
