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Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My BeerThis post is a continuation of a previous post, which is based on a longer-term analysis: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? With Wednesday-Friday and Monday morning's long-awaited dump into the fabled double bottom around $7.4, natural gas can only be considered to have formally shifted into a bearish market structure, based on both the 4H and Daily candles. Note that the dump also breached range equilibrium. What this means, is that it's finally time to look for a 45-day short play on natural gas. Remember, Freeport is supposed to re-open for export to Europe in mid-November, so in principle you'd want to see the downside manipulation occur before then. However, all this time, big firms have been shipping U.S. natural gas via boat to Europe, and making more than $100 million a shipment in the process . Demand has been so enormous that there aren't enough ships on the planet available to meet it. So it's not that U.S. Henry Hub pricing hasn't reflected the demand problem caused by Europe shooting itself in the knees trying to spite Putin and Russia so it can fit in with cool kids in the Globalist Bloc. It has. It's just that the reality is, no matter the news and how it's framed, an energy crisis is coming to North America too. You just won't see it until inflation starts to dip. Energy prices have to come down for inflation to dip. Once inflation dips, it will rip again, because it hasn't topped yet. Anyone who says inflation has peaked obviously can't read The Diagram, and nobody who is unable to read The Diagram is worthy of being a Doctor. Regarding price action, once something as turbulent as natural gas dumps, and dumps a lot, and takes out key pivots, you have to be careful. At present the market makers are still employing these patterns where they seek and destroy to the downside and then quickly seek and destroy the upside. It's very hard to catch a truly trending market at the moment, and so you have to employ a surgical strike style of trading and positioning rather than trying to get long or get short and rack up the Sklansky Bucks comfortably. For example, the stock indexes look like they're going to bounce, and probably hard, before the next big leg down, regardless of what comes out of Wednesday's FOMC: SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It With natural gas, what I'm really looking for here to position puts for November is a bounce into the $8.9 range. The problem is, the natural gas market makers are not so polite. They don't want you along for their ride. It's their ride, and if you're good enough to figure it out, you can make money. But if you can't, they will buck you off and you can watch from the sidelines. They're a lot like angry cowboys, and so there is a possibility that is far from negligible that a number like $9.6 prints again before we see the next move down. Or at least a number that starts with $9. Regardless, in my opinion, once this bear is finished growling and knocking over trees, we will actually begin to see trending markets again. They won't trend for all that long, but you won't get bounces this time. It'll just landslide or gap down to where it wants to go and collect all the badly positioned longs or the longs who somehow never took profit during a run to $10. WTI Oil, likewise, is in the same boat. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls Although its price pattern is more notable in that it once again traded back to the $81 gap and bounced again. If it runs the $91 double top it left behind and keeps going up, it might just be a bull run again. But if it just crushes $91 and starts to fall, you can surely expect numbers like $69 and $50 are en route, no matter what the fundamentals say about global demand. What you're ultimately looking at with the positioning of the markets, whether it be copper, soybeans, stocks, is you're looking at first some bouncing and then what is likely a market-wide sell off with some days of panic that is simultaneously subdued and overexaggerated. All of which is designed to have you sell low and then buy back higher with half your account left intact. Consider that last week's CPI dump took 200 points from the SPX in a few hours, but only raised the VIX by like 3 points. VIX 28 is now a ceiling. VIX 40-42 will be where you find the bottoms. VIX 72 will come when the markets truly start to head to the downside. After the global avalanche is finished, you'll likely see the Nasdaq be extremely strong for a few months. SPX will be okay, but will be drug down by energy companies, which won't do particularly well because they'll be drug down by natural gas and WTI accumulating at low prices. Dow will probably be better than SPX but worse than Nasdaq on account of its defense contractors likewise accumulating at low prices. Once retail is done gorging themselves stupid on $30 SNAP and $45 BBBY and $198 AAPL, reality will unfold. Stocks will crash, hard. WTI and Natural Gas and other commodities (Except for silver and gold. Seriously. Quit being a moonboy on ancap stuff. It'll rot your teeth.) will make major new highs and energy companies and defense contractors will become the safe haven in the markets. When those days unfold, you can expect major geopolitical turbulence, which can include as much as the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. You can also see significant natural and manmade disasters unfold. It won't be a pleasant time. But you should know that what unfolds will appear chaotic but actually be orderly. Everything unfolding in the world is orderly and well arranged. This world will not be destroyed, although there will be significant hardship for many regions, and few will find the outcome comfortable. But for now, you can focus on trying to make money. You have the difficult task of trying to find a time to short natural gas inside of a 15% possible range. You can short $8.9, but they really might take that $9.3 pivot. If you wait for the $9.3 pivot, you might not get filled and miss the move. This kind of move back up is also designed to dump the ETFs, many of which trade on 2x leverage (10% natural gas move = 20% ETF dump), so big pockets can get fat long for the real dump. It's very annoying. They're really very annoying about how they do things. It's a constant gut check and a series of difficult and suboptimal circumstances, because time is an excellent weapon and they use it very well. You should know that all the decisions you face when trading and all the loss and gain you come across are actually opportunities to cultivate your mind and your heart. They're chances to improve. Every thought and feeling you have while doing this is you forging yourself like quicksilver being refined inside of a crucible powered by burning hydrogen. Everything depends on how you improve your heart and employ your rationality. Fear and greed are your greatest enemies.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
Exxon awaiting a correction?Exxon Mobile - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 102.98 (stop at 107.07) We are trading at overbought extremes. Bearish divergence can be seen on the weekly (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower. Posted a Double Top formation on daily RSI. Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. In our opinion this stock is overvalued. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail. Our profit targets will be 92.72 and 88.72 Resistance: 103 / 105 / 110 Support: 100 / 97 / 93 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:XOMShort
by Saxo
$XOM Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $XOM Analysis, Key levels, and Targets So I got a little bit trigger happy today and I sold 95 puts for Friday, but that’s ok… I’m ok with that… However, had I had thought it through I would have used these targets as entries and maybe bumped out to next week… but this is why I make these charts, so that I can make more informed decisions on the spot… and to be able to pick better strikes on the spot… LOL… Anyway, with OPEC cutting oil production I think 95 is a good entry… and seeing it from this angle is giving me so many ideas on how to play this…. Dang I should have organized my charts weeks agolll haha… IF you trade $XOM, $SHEL, $CVX or oil in general let me know your thoughts…. I’m going through my entire stock list this week (definitely longer than a week) so sorry in advanced for blowing up your emails… —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NYSE:XOMLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
XOM IS BACK ON $100 WEEKLY RESISTANCE, WHAT'S NEXT?Check out the trade plan for XOM today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you! XOM Revisited the $100 weekly resistance formed. On the whole, it's now a triple top formed on the following resistance. At the moment the market has two possibilities with the strong bullish price action that happened recently. We are required to confirm the next possible direction with a breakout or a reversal on the highlighted area.
NYSE:XOMLong
by traderchamp_
Short term tentative bullish on Exxon Mobil. XOMBetting on a protracted B Wave. Momentum increasing, zero divergence. Fibtime > 1.0, hence highly likelihood of a flat formation. And thus, more reason to believe a retrace to >0.786 of A. Indicators congruent. Let's see what happens next. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Rykin_Capital
XOM - Will The Hurricane Drive Momentum?It is time to put Oil on your radar for two reasons. One thing that is really striking is how the stores are already selling completely out of water this weekend, after visiting 8 stores and coming up empty handed. BUT, how will the country be faced with gasoline shortages as mass panic begins to strike into the human mindsets, fear, and much more. Especially with not knowing the exact placement of the hurricane and the strength of destruction as the country is facing record high inflation and the government is depleting the strategic reserves of our Oil. THEY will need to start buying the Oil off the market at a rapid pace before the price of oil begins to aggressively increase - thus fueling the demand for buying; causing a momentum spike in price action. The Oil Markets have been looking for a catalyst and this could be just what the market needed to get some demand under it, after-all, recession or not, the U.S. needs Oil to survive and it wont' be long before the U.S. is pressured in admitting the need is critical. I am linking my home repair and oil charts below for simplicity purposes. My support/resistance lines are represented with the horizontal lines. You can use those as targets and/or entries for positions based on bounces of those areas or rejections.
NYSE:XOMLong
by bsdvs23
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?The terms "bullish" and "bearish" when used on Twitter and TradingView and in the media are more or less just poorly positioned synonyms for "going up" or "going down." Yet, it's a misnomer because some of the craziest pumps you'll ever see are during bear markets, and some of the craziest dump-a-thons you'll ever endure are during the most parabolic bull markets. Right now, the energy world is ablaze because the Russian Federation has more or less cut Europe out of Nord Stream 1 while Europe is already in the middle of an exceptional energy crisis, wrought by its own choices to follow the globalist-communist bloc in trying to punish Putin for a war in Ukraine that roots back to more than a decade of U.S.-NATO-led pot-stirring. News like this causes Europe's natural gas futures to print remarkably stupid prices, making a huge amount of widows from those who were trading short, and energy companies who are paying those prices and yet cannot charge those prices to the end user because of socialist command economy policies placed by the government. However, for North America's Henry Hub futures, Europe needing gas doesn't really help, because the Freeport terminal that's really the only place that LNG gets exported in any meaningful quantity blew up in July. It was supposed to come back online in October. And yet, news of its delay until at least November already printed on Aug. 23. Taking a look at the monthly, you can see that NG is still, really, historically cheap: The Biden Administration is going to donate a great quantity of natural gas to Europe once Freeport is back online. In my view, we're going to see a new all-time high print. Something that starts with the number "2." But before we get there, it's important to keep a cool head, and ask yourself: if Freeport has been offline since July and was set to come back online in October, why does price meander in this $8-9.50 range so early? Taking a look at the weekly provides some context: Before Freeport blew up in the first place, NG was flirting with $9. Once it blew up, it immediately took a three week liquidation spree to $5.50, with the worst part of that trip occurring on the final day of June as monthly futures contracts settled. Then it bounced. And for a commodity whose market maker usually likes to whip it up and down and gap up and gap down with violence on daily and weekly opens, it really just went in a straight line back to $9. Expanding down to the daily, it's even more obvious how much this traded like the SPX500 does when the Fed's money printer is doing work so that 75 year old men can mash buy and take a nap: And now here we are, entering the second week of September post-Labor Day. All the propaganda outlets and pundits crank the sirens, chanting, "Europe Natural Gas Utilities Crisis Russia Gazprom Texas Heatwave High Pressure Heat Dome California Electric Grid Shortage!!!" And all of that is true, just like all of that was true for WTI Crude when it traded at $125 for two months. And yet somehow, despite the fundamentals and all the pundits calling for $180 and $350 BECAUSE REASON S, oil is down 30% and it still isn't finished dumping. So, why is it? It's not hard to figure out. It really isn't. Retail buys high because they see confirmation that something is going up, and then panic sells when it gets rugged. And then when it goes back up they mash buy at a higher price than they sold at because of "Fear of Missing Out," and then they don't sell when they're in profit because their target on the SPX is 12,836 because Gann and Elliot said so, and everyone wants to be that guy you hear about who bought Google at $2 and held it for 20 years while playing golf. If Shell or Exxon traded like that, they would be bankrupt, none of us would have electricity to read these words, and we'd all either die from heat exhaustion or freeze to death without AC and furnaces. The reality is that when NG dumped at the end of July, it still didn't dump deep enough to enter a discount in this overall trading range. We've simply been watching what is still currently the 7th straight week of premium trading. If Natural Gas is going to go to $20 when Biden starts donating energy to save NATO's European arms, it really would make a lot more sense if some time were spent so companies and funds could accumulate a significant position at a relative discount. And indeed, there are at least two fat and curiously unchallenged double bottoms presented in the 4H chart that just happen to be in the sub-50% dealing range and at a price so low that it will have margin calling and leave ZeroHedge and Javier Blas from Bloomberg and friends in bewildered disbelief as to how energy commodities aren't worth anything "in a recession." I often say that what a person thinks can happen and what is actually happening in this world and this Universe are simply two totally different things. A human being is heavily deceived by the slow grind of time and the ostensible appearance before their eyes. Reality, on the other hand, simply follows a certain law and it will complete itself according to that law no matter how anyone cries about it. Whoever is in harmony with the law will establish themselves, and whoever is afoul of the law will get liquidated. The caveat to this chart is time. I can only fit so many 4H candles in a window and so the time on this chart only extends into early October. These lower prices, if they really come, could happen later in October or even in November. And while it'll really be quite the opportunity, it's also a "second mouse gets the cheese" kind of thing for those who are trying to get long for the moon at $7 and $6.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
OXY SHORT after bouncing down from All Time ResistanceOXY as shown on the chart is still in a megaphone pattern. Horizontal resistance red line is the all time highs of Spring 2018. In the past several trading sessions, spot oil has dropped from $96 to $87. The MACD indicator which is lagging shows the K / D cross over the histogram. Accordingly, OXY is now trending downward to the mid-Fibonacci retracement levels and the confluence of the mid-line of the megaphone pattern. This appears to be a safe short trade setup especially now that the buying pressure of Mr. Buffet has subsided.
NYSE:OXYShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
VET is pumping profits LONGVET like OXY is showing a great chart with consistent price action. Fundamentally, it has had great earnings reports in the past year. It rates an 8/8 on the Minervini Trend scale showing strength and duration of trend as very high. Vermillon Energy has been strong in the general market downturn. I see this as a Swing long setup with a good expectant reward for the risk assumed. I am considering the call strike $30 option for September 16th.
NYSE:VETLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
OXY Sellers Fall Down ( Flat Bottom Triangle Breakout) LONGNYSE:OXY One hour chart: NYSE:OXY In the past day, the relative volume of sellers has decreased and price momentum is gradually increasing despite the general market reaction to federal economic news. The flat bottom triangle breakout suggests sellers are capitulating on pricing given current circumstances. The RSI Oscillator is in a mid-range suggesting more upside. I see a long setup with call otpions 2 weeks expiration strike $85.
NYSE:OXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
XOM SELL SIGNAL ILLUMINATED🔸️Ticker Symbol: XOM 🔸️Timeframe: 4 Hour 🔸️Investment Strategy: Short TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: XOM is currently flashing a sell signal on our 4H timeframe and could see the price decreasing over the next week. Our money momentum indicator on the bottom dashboard is shifting lower indicating money is flowing out of the market. We also have a red dot representing a key ema crossover to the downside. With both of these in combination I do believe we have the potential to see XOM head lower to $96 and the first level of support followed by $94.60. Thanks for following! 🔔 Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis. ⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
NYSE:XOMShort
by TrendsiTrades
OXY Early Breakout from FLAT BOTTOM TRIANGENYSE:OXY OXY has market momentum with the ongoing Buffet buying frenzy. It has been in a pattern since the spring 2022 Buffet buying that is a flat bottom triangle. The latest buying seems to be resulting in a breakout from the triangle yet without retest. Rising relative strength on the RSI serves to validate the move. Buffet seems to know that the current inflation is a headwind for growth for the alternative energy sector while Big Oil is drowning in cash and buying back stock relentlessly. A ll in all , OXY IS A STONG BUY even if spot oil and futures prices are drifting lower. if the retest fails and OXY returns to the triangle in conjunction with oil prices decreasing and the general market sideways, I will take some put options for a few months.
NYSE:OXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
COMMODITIES (OIL ) vs EQUITIES ( DIA)In this chart, I have plotted the ratio of the price of the USOIL ETF over the DIA, which is the broad ETF for the DJI. The chart shows the USOIL ETF has been stronger than the DIA until the market lows in mid June after which the DIA rebounded while hot oil prices cooled off. The analysis would be is that oil prices may be relatively undervalued at present and so represent a potential basement sale at a time when the federal goverment just approved a vast upgrade in oil leases on federal land. If investing in big oil at this time ( like Warren Buffet) what stock or ETF trade would you be inclined to take? AMEX:USO
TVC:USOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
XOM : Why Do I Think XOM will Reach 97 Soon.---------------Ticker: $XOM ----------------------Time Frame : 4H ------------------------------ Investment Strategy: Long Trend is broken and retested the trend(Support) and rejected. Trendsi Confirmation of Green Dot and Green line gives me full confidence, we can see XOM 97 very soon. Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis. ⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Red_Green-TA
3