RIG monthly back-tests, high probability using game theory (and macro/b-cycle). Price action following.. Self explanatory.
XOP Using $XOP as representative of the Oil and Gas Exploration Industry. Pearson's R^2 = 0.95 indicating strong tendency for signal to centralize around its multi-year linear mean (LM, 150.22). Signal currently resides just above the lower third standard deviation (-3) off the linear mean(LM). Statistically speaking it would be tough to hold this...
... for a 2.66 credit. Comments: Short put for the IRA (See Post Below); short strangle for the margin. Selling the 16 delta strikes on both sides. 2.66 credit on buying power effect of 12.98; 20.5% ROC at max; 10.3% at 50% max.
... for a 1.11 credit. Comments: Selling premium in one of the exchange-traded funds at the top of my IV screener with a 30-day at 32.2% -- more than twice that of the broad market. (The others are GDXJ, at 35.2%; GDX, 31.2%; and EWZ and FXI, both at 29.1%). As with my broad market plays, targeting the <16 delta strike in the shortest duration paying around 1%...
xop, might have more room to the downside. It is not yet showing a 5-wave up. We might see a retest of wave 4 untill we can call the correction completed.
Clearly, anyone tracking the recent Saudi cuts in oil production understands that this mixed with the new Chinese trend of buying oil in yuan and creating the "petroyuan," will generate a price increase based on supply/demand fundamentals.
... for a 3.67 credit. Comments: Rolling for a realized gain with this down move. There was no 127 strike, so rolled the short call to the 130 and the short put "as is." Total credits collected of 28.47 on a 17 wide inverted. Resulting delta/theta -38.14/15.30 with 13.43 of extrinsic, so I'm indicating here that it's a "short" position. Still looking at this...
Did you follow my research from late October/early November? So many people thought Crude Oil would climb higher on supply concerns (related to Winter/Europe). But here we are sliding below $75 (soon) and targeting the mid-$60s. My call from October was that we may see $64 to $67 as a base. Now, I'm thinking we may see $54 to $57 as a base. What is going to...
Is this it? Headed into the end of 2023 - are we going to see Crude Oil fall below $76 ppb as COVID & economic concerns trap the global economy into a contraction phase? My research suggests Crude Oil will attempt to find support near $63 to $65 before attempting to bottom. From current levels, this suggests a -$30 ppb downward price trend is likely. Two things...
... to the December 16th 128C/133P inverted short strangle for a 4.02 credit. Comments: Rolling out at 21 days to go to reduce "random" assignment risk on the short call. Total credits collected of 21.96. I've gone slightly inverted here as well as improved the short call strike a smidge to keep the short delta metrics similar to what they would be were I to...
Don't fool yourself with the idea that Crude Oil will continue to climb higher. The world is in a contractionary phase and Winter/COVID issues continue to plague demand. Crude Oil will slide downward as demand weakens into 2023. I expect $75 to $76 as a base level near the end of 2022. Then, possibly falling toward the $61 price level. Follow my research.
... for a 6.93 credit. Comments: Rolling this out "as is," betting that this weakens ... eventually. Total credits collected of 17.94. Resulting delta/theta of -46.61/22.04 with break evens of 109.06 on the put side; 144.94 on the call side.
A clear Diversion can be seen from the RSI and the recent price action. This suggests a near term return to lower prices as current ones are not supported by volume.
XOP - is in the same type of consolidation it has been TWICE prior to its' current location. It has already bounced off of $114 support level. I'm anticipating the price running to a resistance level of around $180 with a pull back which would launch it THROUGH the $180 level which it hasn't been over since 2015. If current market condition continue running...
... for a 4.33 credit. Comments: Rolling to short straddle at the 127. Total credits collected of 11.01 versus the setup currently marking at 16.13. Resulting delta/theta of 22.28/23.54 with a cost basis of 115.99 if assigned on the 125 put.
... for a .51 credit. Comments: Smidge of delta adjustment here. Total credits collected of 6.68. Resulting delta/theta of 13.99/17.18 with the setup marking at around 6.22. I rolled this once for duration already, so probably should just take profit here and move on, but wanted more than .46 ($46) out of it. We'll see if that bites me in the hinder or not ... .
... for a 1.76 credit. Comments: Was hoping price would stay more centered in my setup running into September mopex, but ... nope. Rolling out/recentering risk with 14 days to go. 6.17 total credits collected relative to the 127/165's marking at 8.02, so it's still a bit underwater. Delta/theta at 1.58/16.78.
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product ( AMEX:XOP ) Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds) Market Capitalization: $ -- Current Price: $144.75 Breakout price: $147.00 Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $140.20-$120.00 Price Target: $166.70-$170.60 Estimated Duration to Target: 76-80d Contract of Interest: $XOP 11/18/22 145c Trade price as of publish date:...