Generally speaking, the worst thing to do in a fairly low volatility environment is to put premium selling plays on just to have plays on. My general approach to these volatility lulls is to look at them as an opportunity to work what broken trades you may have on at the moment (e.g., inverted short strangles) in an attempt to dry powder out for the next pulse of...
My screeners aren't showing me a ton of things for either earnings-related volatility contraction plays and/or just Plain Jane premium selling, so I'm largely looking just to work what I have on, do any adjustments that are necessary, and wait for a higher volatility environment (VIX is at sub-15 here) to deploy capital back into premium selling. The Chinese...
Pictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta. Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21...
This is a short straddle that started as a double diagonal. (See Post Below). I've been rolling the short straddle body out to generally at-the-money to take profit and to bring in additional credits. Although implied volatility (31%) is at the low end of its 52-week range, it is more than twice that of the broad market; SPY is at 14%. So far, I've collected...
EARNINGS: RIG (30/54) announces on Monday after market close; CRON (18/98), Tuesday before market open; and CZR (45/58) and IQ (22/64) on Thursday after market close. RIG Setups: Given its size (8.93/share as of Friday close), only a short straddle makes sense for a nondirectional play. Unfortunately, the March 9 only pays .96, making a 25% max take profit a...
BIDU (44/42), RIG (33/56), and TEVA (49/53) announce earnings this week, with TEVA looking for a March to April volatility contraction of about 15%, BIDU, approximately 7.7%, and RIG, 6.9%. Instead of looking to play these pre-announcement for a volatility contraction (the contraction percentages aren't that compelling), I'll look to potentially short...
watching here for break down on daily. $USO $DWTI $XLE $XOP
EARNINGS: The only underlying that interests me for an earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play this coming week is TWTR (62/67). Preliminary Setups: March 15th 28/38 Short Strangle (Pictured): 1.73 credit (.87 at 50% max), break evens at 26.27/39.73, -8.98 delta, 4.78 theta. March 15th 25/28/38/41 Iron Condor: 1.01 credit (.50 at 50% max),...
We've got a bevvy of earnings announcements on tap: AMD: Tuesday After Close AAPL: Tuesday After Close BABA: Wednesday Before Open FB: Wednesday After Close TSLA: Wednesday After Close X: Wednesday After Close AMZN: Thursday After Close Out of these, AMD (73/74), TSLA (70/73), and X (79/58) have the best metrics for volatility contraction plays. ...
... for a 1.92 per contract credit. Metrics: Max Loss on Setup: $308 Max Profit on Setup: $192 Delta: .98 Theta: 2.50 Notes: Another double diagonal, this time in the routinely high implied volatility XOP (currently 35.5%), a la the EEM double diagonal I put on earlier in the trading session. (See Post Below). I've gone shorter duration in the back month...
(Pulling hair out). Ugh. A tough market temporarily for premium sellers. With VIX caving in dramatically off of its late December greater-than-35 highs, premium selling is the old gray mare that (temporarily) just ain't what it used to be. That being said, there are a couple of potential earnings plays to be had next week: IBM (68/31; Tuesday after market...
Not much is coming up on my screener this week for sexy premium selling beyond NFLX (66/60) (which has earnings on Thursday after market close) and petro (i.e., USO/OIH/XOP, with XOP being my usual go-to). Pictured here is a March 15th 275/280/410/415 iron condor that pays a hair greater than the width of the wings (1.68). If you're not keen on going that far...
As of Dec. 26th USOIL has been on a reversal from its 2018 Q4 correction. On Jan 10th we broke through the resistance area of $51.25. The XOP as we all know is directly related to USOIL as it tracks an equal-weighted index of companies in the US oil & gas exploration & production space. The XOP's first resistance area that was broken through was $29.90. As XOP...
Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $338/contract Max Profit on Setup: $162/contract Break Even: $28.38 versus $28.63 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 67.6% Delta: 39.2 Theta: .61 Notes: A bullish assumption shot at the low end of the range. Ordinarily, I like to go split month with these to give me more time to reduce cost basis, but there...
After a short break for shortened trading weeks for the Christmas and New Year's holidays (how bout them holiday markets, huh?), I'm back to my regular routine. Here's what's on tap for the coming week ... . Earnings: I'm not seeing much on the earnings front for volatility contraction plays or premium plays in high implied volatility around earnings that are...
... for a 3.86/contract debit. Metrics: Max Profit on Setup: $114/contract Max Loss on Setup: $386/contract Break Even: 26.86 vs. 26.75 spot Debit Paid to Spread With Ratio: 77.2% Delta: 30.39 Theta: 1.14 Notes: Somewhat dissatisfied with my OIH position (hey, I entered too early; it happens), adding some long petro with this, my preferred go-to. Will look for...
With but a few trading days left in 2018, it's time to consider taking tax losses in non-tax deferred accounts Personally, I flattened out of virtually everything on Friday, taking my lumps here particularly in my SPY, QQQ static, defined risk core positions in this fairly atypical year-end sell-off so that I can start off 2019 fairly clean, with smaller 2018...