Personally, I'm not doing a ton here beyond looking at cleaning up remaining December cycle setups and evaluating whether there are poo piles that should be looked at for the taking of tax loss in the margin account before year's end. Nevertheless, here's an outline of what's potentially playable in the coming week ... . ADBE (81/49) announces earnings on...
Earnings With >70 Rank/>50 Implied: No underlyings with highly liquid options with earnings announcements in the next week. With single names with earnings announcements in the rear view mirror, we're looking at earnings starting up again in the January cycle; I'd rather just play those closer to the announcement, rather than get caught up in a volatility...
Closing the remainder of my December cycle XOP core position for a 4.61/contract debit. Although I'm closing these particular spreads at a loss, I'm green for the December cycle in XOP, given my scratch point of 5.15, resulting in a .54 ($54)/contract profit. This isn't very stellar, but I'll take it given the header oil took off of 2018 highs ......
... for a .40/contract credit. Notes: This will finish my clean up of my XOP December cycle core position. (See Post Below for all the shenanigans). I've now got "unit balance" (same on put side as on call side), as well as a smaller number of units in total. My scratch point in the position for the December cycle is 5.15/contract, and the net delta of the...
... for a 1.12/contract debit (1.04 profit/contract). Notes: Further clean-up of my XOP core position in December. Now that I've taken off the 38/41 short call vertical and this iron condor, what remains is two short put verticals, one at 32/35, the other at 30/35. The 32/35 was left over from an iron condor I put on previously, the 30/35 from an iron fly, the...
... for a .11/contract debit (.30 profit/contract). Notes: Here, I'm just cleaning up my XOP core position a little bit ... .
EARNINGS WITH A RANK >70/IMPLIED >50: CRM (81/52): Announces on Tuesday after market close. The pictured defined risk setup pays a greater than a one-third of the wing width 1.89 with break evens between the expected and one standard deevy. ANF (68/86): Announces Thursday before market open. The Dec 21st 16 short straddle was paying 3.04 as of Friday close;...
... for a .12/contract debit/.44 profit per contract. Notes: Here, I'm taking a little call side off in profit from my XOP core position. Naturally, this leaves me "imbalanced" from a unit perspective (more put side than call) and doesn't help the position's current long delta, but I'll look to put some back on if there's a bounce ... .
In spite of the shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there are balls to hit out there ... . Earnings: BBY (95/57) (announcing Tuesday before market open): The December 21st 57.5/75 short strangle shown here is paying 2.42 with break evens near the one standard deviation line. I tried pricing out a defined risk iron condor, but it looks like...
... for an .83/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: .83 ($83)/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 2.17 ($217)/contract Break Evens: 30.17/38.83 Delta: -.55 Theta: 1.73 Notes: An adjustment trade, primarily to add some additional extrinsic value to my XOP core position with XOP rank/implied still being high (100/42), as well as some short delta (it was...
... for a .72/contract debit (.38 profit/contract; 34.5% max). Notes: As with my SPY core position, I'm mixing and matching profitable short put side with short call side of oppositional setups that I put on over time to take off some risk, book some profit, and (where possible) to get a bit of delta adjustment where I need it. (Here, I pick up a smidge of...
entered with little qty. will add more if goes down further
1 MORE SMALL DOWN WEEK AND THEN BIG SPIKE UP
XOP the same set up as XLE. My indicator has broken the upward trendline before price breaks the triangle. I expect the price to move up a little next few weeks so as my indicator to retest the broken TL. If my indicator fails to break above, then look to short it hard. TP: 12
Shares of the AMLP, which tracks a basket of MLP's (master limited partnerships), has been a stellar holding since mid-April both in terms of price and total return, thanks to its rich 7.8% dividend (at current prices). This advance has now pulled back to the 61.8% retracement , which is ideal for a continuation of the advance. I've been aggressively buying over...
... for a 1.10/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.10 ($110)/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 1.90 ($190)/contract Break Evens: 33.90/42.10 Delta: -1.25 Theta: 1.08 Notes: Going Plain Jane, delta neutral iron condor (although you can certainly short strangle it, too) in relatively high implied (rank 62/implied 32. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
TWTR announces earnings on Thursday before market open, and with a rank of 92 and a 30-day implied of 70, it presents ideal metrics for a earnings announcement volatility contraction play. As of Friday close, the November 16th 25/34 short strangle is paying 1.57 (.79 profit at 50% max), with a net delta of .39 and a theta of 6.45, and break evens of 23.43/35.57...