... for a 4.19/contract debit. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.81/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 4.19/contract Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 4.19/6.00 = 69.83% Break Even: 43.81 Theta: .72 Delta: -42.45 Notes: Going split month downward put diagonal/synthetic covered put here at or near 2018 highs.
Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $636/contract Max Profit on Setup: $264/contract (41.54% ROI at max; 20.75% at 50% max) Break Even: 43.64 versus 43.58 spot Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 70.7% Theta: .84 Delta: -54.75 Notes: I'm not going to put this setup on quite yet, as I would prefer that the price of the underlying be "at the top of the box"...
... for a 1.31/contract credit. Probability of Profit: 64% Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/5.95/contract Max Profit: 1.31/contract Break Evens: 37.69/45.31 Theta: 2.53 Delta: -4.15 Notes: Shooting for 50% max; adjust at skew out to +/- 30 delta.
... for a 1.31/contract credit. Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: 1.31 ($131)/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/6.68 ($668) Break Evens: 38.69/45.31 Delta: 3.65 Theta: 2.75 Notes: Giving myself more room to be wrong with a short strangle in the September cycle. Implied volatility remains so-so here at 24.7% (near the bottom of its 52-week...
... for a 3.05/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: $305/contract Max Loss: Undefined: $848/contract on margin Break Evens: 38.95/45.05 Delta: -6.55 Theta: 3.31 Notes: Admittedly, the implied volatility rank and implied volatility metrics here aren't great (11 and 25, respectively) but the credit collected as a function of the buying power effect is decent...
... for a 3.45/contract credit. Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/8.08 (on margin) Max Profit: 3.45/contract Break Evens: 38.55/46.45 Theta: 3.09 Delta: -3.53 Notes: Moving out to the September monthly with a narrow strangle ... . 30-day implied isn't as high as I'd like it to be (currently at 28.8%), but it's the second highest, liquid...
Sold the XOP 100 17 AUG 42/45 'big lizard' for a credit of 2.90. The strategy is essentially short the 42 straddle with a long 45 strike call to limit the upside risk. The 'proft zone' 39.11-44.90 with almost no risk to the upside. I plan to manage a winner early to collect around $70-75 ( 25% of the initial credit ). Currently there's 46 days to expiry but...
... for a 2.90/contract credit. Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/8.48/contract Max Profit: 2.90/contract Break Evens: 39.10/44.90 Theta: 4.52 Delta: -10 Notes: Just looking to add some more theta to the pile in August in non-single name, as the September monthly remains too far out in time for my tastes. Because of its duration, will start to...
Increase in IV here, due to the oil sell off. Sold -1 Aug17 41/46 strangle for $1.38 cr. 2x cr received stop loss here or 50% Win are my targets.
We're back into the thick of earnings season again ... . NFLX (rank 64/implied 52) pops the top on Monday after market close, so you're going to want to slap anything you want to do on before session end to take maximum advantage of a volatility contraction play. Pictured here is a 20 delta iron condor in the weekly with a buying power effect of 6.59 per...
Another covered short "combo" setup (see Post Below) with the delta metrics of a covered put sans the buying power effect of short stock and plenty of time to work out and/or reduce cost basis ... . Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$1234 Max Profit: $514/contract (realized on finish below the short put) Break Evens: 46.14/no downside risk Delta:...
This week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... . CPB: Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that...
With this quarter's earnings pretty much in the rear view mirror, there isn't much single name to play here, particularly since we start right back up again with earnings around the July monthly. Consequently, if you're going to play single name, you may get caught in a volatility expansion running into earnings, so if you absolutely can't resist the urge to pay...
HPQ announces tomorrow after market close; COST on Thursday after market. Neither underlying's rank/implied vol metrics are particularly compelling, however, with the former's implied at 29.6%, the latter at 23.5%. Even so, the 68% probability of profit, ~20 delta COST June 15th 188/207.5 short strangle's paying 2.31; managed early (<50% max), that could make...
I apparently neglected to post this when I put it on back on March 27th in the kid's small account, and am doing so here primarily to keep track of cost basis. Here's the blow by blow: On March 27th, I opened this trade for a .50/contract credit. On April 7th, I closed out the short put side for a .05/contract, with a resulting cost basis of .45/contract. ...
Oil within recent uptrend. Looking for a reversal here for the next week or two. Playing this via refinery and oil producer stocks