XOP
CLOSING: XOP MARCH 20TH 24 SHORT CALL... for a .05 debit.
Notes: Scratch at 8.45. Will look at rolling out the 21P, 31P next week and then re-upping short calls to cut net delta and reduce cost basis further. Alternatively, I can just wait and see what happens running into expiry, with the most likely outcome that I get assigned on at least the 31 and possibly on both the 21 and 31, with the obvious advantage to staying in the options being the buying power effect as compared to being in the stock.
Hoping for a bounce soon XOPthis has ruined so many ppls life including me. It needs some reversal now
CLOSING: XOP MARCH 20TH 25, 26 SHORT CALLS... for a .09 debit; scratch at 8.50.
Notes: Not much value left in these, so taking them off. Waiting for a little while longer on the 24 shortie.
QQQ: day trade review & next week plantoday's trade is not good, but still can make money. Next week, will do QQQ PUT and IWM CALL.
QQQ
XOP
GDX
CLOSING: XOP MARCH 21ST 27 SHORT CALL... for a .05 debit.
Notes: Here, just stripping off some approaching worthless short call. Because my scratch here is 8.59, I'm not going to do a ton further with it running into March expiry, except to strip off "approaching worthless" options. This is because the most likely scenario is assignment on the 31 short put, where my cost basis is 31 minus 8.59 or 22.41 versus 21.89 spot. I'm fine with that, since the underlying is toward the end of range lows.
OPENING: XOP MARCH 20TH 26 SHORT CALL... for a .43 credit. Scratch at 9.08.
Notes: A delta under hedge as this whips back "the other way." Still slightly net delta long.
OPENING: XOP MARCH 20TH 21 SHORT PUT... for a .36 credit.
Notes: A delta hedge against my XOP position in the first expiry that pays greater than 10% of the value of the stock. Delta/theta -4.94/3.22, with 3.19 extrinsic and setup value of 10.19 versus 8.64 scratch.
XLE Backtesting Breakout$XLE perfect backtest of breakout from symmetrical triangle. I love trading this type of backtest because RR is favorable and downside risk well defined $WTI $XOP $CL $USO #oil
Oil Testing Key $61 LevelThe $61 level has been really important for #oil this year. Price is retesting now, along with falling resistance from the Apr and Sept peaks, and resistance from the rising channel begun in late Sept. $USO $WTI $CL $XOP $XLE
$XOP Looking to Push Through Resistance$XOP #Oil & #Gas Explorers turning up here with RSI breaking out on the daily. A close above $24 would likely take this ETF to $33+ quickly. Watching closely. $WTI $CL
OPENING: XOP MARCH 20TH 28 SHORT CALL... for a .58/contract credit.
Notes: One of my troubled setups that I seem to have been working forever (See Post Below) and probably could've gotten out of sooner if I'd been a touch more aggressive on the call side as the underlying descended to long-term lows. Rather than inverting the short strangle further, I'm leaving the setup in place and adding a delta cutter.
Scratch at 7.36, delta/theta 40.7/1.38.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ANF, BBY EARNINGS; XOP, EWZ, GDX, SMHIt's a short market week here, but this is what we've got ... .
EARNINGS:
HPE (43/33): Announces Monday after market close.
ANF (85/80): Announces Tuesday before market open.
BBY (70/42): Announces Tuesday before market open.
HPQ (50/36): Announces Tuesday after market close
DE (34/29): Announces Wednesday before market open.
Of these, ANF and BBY appear most appealing from a volatility contract standpoint.
The setup pictured here is an ANF 16 short straddle in the December 20th month, paying 2.87 (.72 at 25% max) versus 15.93 spot (18.0%), with the defined risk 11/16/16/21 iron fly paying 2.60 with a buying power effect of 2.40 (.65 at 25% max).
The BBY December 20th 65/80 short strangle is paying 1.75 (.88 at 50% max), with the correspondent 60/65/80/85 iron condor in the same cycle paying 1.60 (.80 at 50% max).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
TLT (36/12)
SLV (29/20)
GLD (23/11)
USO (21/33)
XLE (19/20)
As with last week, short duration premium selling remains less than ideal here, so either hand sit, keeping powder dry, or look to deploy in longer duration setups. Here's what's on my list for longer duration setups in which at background implied volatility is higher:
XOP: January, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 2.20 versus 21.05 spot (10.5%)
EWZ: March, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 5.12 versus 43.16 spot (11.9%)
GDX: March, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 3.14 versus 26.76 spot (11.7%)
SMH: May, where the at-the-money short straddle is paying 17.95 versus 130.92 spot (13.7%)
BROAD MARKET:
SPY 10/13
IWM (7/16)
QQQ (7/16)
As with the exchange-traded funds, you're looking at either hand sitting on shorter duration setups or going out farther in time to get paid, with the expiries in which the at-the-money short straddle is paying greater than 10% in September for SPY and June for both IWM and QQQ (ugh).
FUTURES:
/6B (67/12)
/NG (41/60)
/6C (30/5)
/SI (29/18)
/GC (23/11)
Cable I get, but what's with the Loonie?
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
With the January, February, and March contracts trading at 16.68, 17.76, and 18.05 respectively as of Friday close, VIX term structure trades in those expiries remain viable. For all other short volatility trades, I'd wait for a VIX pop above 20 to consider starting to add short position, as well as consider taking off some risk if we see another drop back into the 2019 lows at 12. It finished Friday at 12.34 ... .
XOP - DAILY CHARTXOP - SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
The ETFs seems poised to be affected by the recent news regarding the Oil output, that it's increasing due to the latest report from Iran that discovered a new oil field with over 50 billion barrels, plus the announcement from OPEC + that isn't going to cut its Oil output for now. Working in favor of the asset we have for now only the perspective of increase of revenue on this quarter due the Winter season, but this its a weak argument compared to the current geopolitical context.
