XPDUSD on the verge of a long-term bullish break-out.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High. Today though, the price broke, marginally so far, above it for the first time after a strong post-Fed 1D candle. This rise was initiated on a Lower Lows trend-line but on an underlying Bullish Divergence as the 1D RSI was during the same period on Higher Lows.
This was the first signal of a potential long-term bullish break-out and a break (and 1D candle closing) above both the Channel Down and more importantly the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (which is where the April 18 2023 High was rejected), will be the confirmation.
If it happens (closing 1D candle above it), then we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1255.00, which is slightly below Resistance 1 (1291.00). A further closing above Resistance 1, will be new break-out buy entry, with which we will target slightly below Resistance 2 at 1625.00.
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XPDUSD
#XPDUSD Palladium reaching long-term accumulation levelsPalladium is starting to pique my interest. After retreating from as high as $3000 at the peak in April 21' - the commodity is now down 65% and reaching interesting long term levels. Firstly the current level at approximately $1025 is where palladium peaked as far as back in January 01' - almost 22 years ago. If this becomes a point of polarity, the previous top(resistance) should start to morph into support. This level was also tested in late December 2017 after not having made new highs for 16 years! To think that the commodity is basically flat from the highest point some 22 years ago is quite something...
What makes this level even more interesting to me is that we have approached the 200 month moving average (green moving average on the chart). Interestingly, this is where the palladium price bottomed back in Late 2016 before rallying almost 500% to reach the Peak of $3000 in April 21'. Also, if you look at the RSI and MACD indicators at the bottom of my chart, you will see just how oversold the commodity is. To put it into perspective, the only time we were more oversold going back to 1997 (which is as far as i can go), was April 2003 where we traded as low as $150...
I would start accumulating here, with scope to add down at $850 should it get there, which is where we find the uptrend connecting the 2008 and 2016 lows. I will be surprised if we get that far, but I will start accumulating from current levels for a move higher. We are so stretched in price here that I do expect some mean reversion to take place in the weeks and months ahead. We are already starting to see mines having to close shafts which is telling you that PGM prices at these levels are not sustainable and something has to give sooner or later...
XPDUSD Price rebounding at the bottom of the Channel Down.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since late June and on Monday the price hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier on a Lower Lows formation that has previously formed short-term bottoms for Palladium, we expect a rebound towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The lowest rebound sequence within this period has been +9.00% so a 1185 target perfectly fit those criteria as well as a potential contact with the 1D MA50.
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Palladium Trade Plan based on Option SentimentOption activity in palladium is quite rare. On October 19 the verical spread with targets of $1150-1200 was passed. Despite the insignificant volume, it stands out sharply against the background of previous observations. The logic of this spread is the correction to the area of the previous support.
Palladium has posted another bearish engulfing.Palladium - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bearish.
The bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart is negative for sentiment.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
1277 has been pivotal.
We look to Sell at 1276.7 (stop at 1292.7)
Our profit targets will be 1236.7 and 1226.7
Resistance: 1255 / 1270 / 1280
Support: 1244 / 1225 / 1200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
XPDUSD: Engage above or below this Channel. Neutral within.Palladium has been trading relatively sideways as its inside a low slope Channel Down pattern since June 27th. There is no surprise that the 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 54.874, MACD = -7.340, ADX = 26.821). Consequently you can scalp the Channel's range on the short-term on trade the direction of the breakout on the longer one.
If the price delivers a 1D candle closing over the top of the Channel Down (and most likely the 1D MA100), buy and target the 1D MA200 (TP = 1,400). If the price delivers a 1D candle closing under the bottom of the Channel Down, sell and target the end of a -26% decline (TP = 985.00).
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XPDUSD Sell signal below the 1D MA50.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading inside a Channel Down for almost a year. The price ic currently near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is intact since May 23.
The 1D RSI action shows that we are potentially in a similar spot as December 27 2022, when a deep Lower Low sequence started. As long as the price stays below the 1D MA50, we will stay bearish and target the middle of the Channel Down at 1050.
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Palladium's mild rally to find a ceiling soon?Palladium - 24h expiry
Broken out of the channel formation to the upside.
We look for a temporary move higher.
The primary trend remains bearish.
50 1day EMA is at 1340.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 1339.8 (stop at 1363.8)
Our profit targets will be 1279.8 and 1269.8
Resistance: 1322 / 1340 / 1360
Support: 1302 / 1290 / 1275
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium at oversold extremes in a bearish channel.Palladium - 24h expiry
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
Trend line resistance is located at 1248.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 1249.4 (stop at 1273.4)
Our profit targets will be 1189.4 and 1179.4
Resistance: 1250 / 1257 / 1270
Support: 1227 / 1215 / 1202
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium in inverted head and shoulders?Palladium - 24h expiry
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders has formed.
Bespoke support is located at 1355.
We look to buy dips.
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
We look to Buy at 1350.1 (stop at 1326.1)
Our profit targets will be 1410.1 and 1420.1
Resistance: 1370 / 1380 / 1400
Support: 1348 / 1335 / 1315
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium primary trend remains bearish.Palladium - Intraday
The primary trend remains bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
20 1day EMA is at 1397.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Daily signals for sentiment are at oversold extremes.
We look to Sell at 1397.8 (stop at 1421.8)
Our profit targets will be 1337.8 and 1327.8
Resistance: 1400 / 1415 / 1430
Support: 1380 / 1360 / 1340
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
PALLADIUM Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into Palladium (XPDUSD) is was almost a year ago:
This time the price has formed a Channel Up pattern after breaking above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line form the October 04 2022 High. The price is exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now, near the bottom of the Channel Up, which makes it a technical buy. Our target is the top of the Channel Up at 1685. A break below the 1420 Support, will be a sell signal instead, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1200.
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Is Palladium to extend its losses?Palladium - 24h expiry
There is no indication that the selloff is coming to an end.
We look for losses to be extended today.
Short-term oscillators have turned negative.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
The primary trend remains bearish.
We look to Sell a break of 1501.8 (stop at 1525.8)
Our profit targets will be 1441.8 and 1431.8
Resistance: 1513.5 / 1525 / 1540
Support: 1502.5 / 1480 / 1460
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium to breakdown?Palladium - 24h expiry -
The primary trend remains bearish.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Price action has posted a Doji candle and signals a possible reversal of the recent trend.
The bias is to break to the downside.
Our outlook is bearish.
We look to Sell a break of 1572.9 (stop at 1596.9)
Our profit targets will be 1512.9 and 1502.9
Resistance: 1590 / 1605 / 1625
Support: 1574 / 1555 / 1520
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium keeps finding support at the trend line.Palladium - 24h expiry -
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Trend line support is located at 1420.
Early pessimism is likely to lead to losses although extended attempts lower are expected to fail.
We look for a temporary move lower.
We look to Buy at 1421.2 (stop at 1397.1)
Our profit targets will be 1481.1 and 1491.1
Resistance: 1475 / 1490 / 1500
Support: 1450 / 1435 / 1420
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium ready for some upside?Palladium - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1474.1 (stop at 1450.1)
Short term bias has turned positive.
Previous resistance at 1475 now becomes support.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
We look to buy dips.
We look for gains to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 1534.1 and 1544.1
Resistance: 1515 / 1527 / 1540
Support: 1490 / 1475 / 1450
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XPD selloff has no indication of coming to and end.Palladium - Intraday -
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Daily signals are bearish.
There is no indication that the selloff is coming to an end.
Previous support at 1405 now becomes resistance.
We look for a temporary move higher.
50 4hour EMA is at 1408.
We look to Sell at 1403.4 (stop at 1427.3)
Our profit targets will be 1343.3 and 1333.3
Resistance: 1350 / 1365 / 1380
Support: 1340 / 1320 / 1300
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium daily EMA keeps on attracting sellers.We are trading at oversold extremes.
20 1-day EMA is at 1494.
Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Palladium - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1496.9 (stop at 1520.9)
Our profit targets will be 1436.9 and 1430.9
Resistance: 1445 / 1459 / 1480
Support: 1420 / 1405 / 1385
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium at 60-week low.Palladium - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1588.5 (stop at 1611.9)
Trades at the lowest level in 60 weeks.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Previous support at 1590 now becomes resistance.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Our profit targets will be 1530.1 and 1525.1
Resistance: 1531 / 1545 / 1560
Support: 1517 / 1500 / 1480
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Will XPD find support at oversold extremes?Palladium - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1646.1 (stop at 1626.3)
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Bespoke support is located at 1650.
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
Our profit targets will be 1695.6 and 1705.6
Resistance: 1660 / 1675 / 1697
Support: 1646 / 1630 / 1600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium rallies continues to attract sellers.Palladium - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1736.8 (stop at 1757.8)
Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
20 1day EMA is at 1739.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Daily signals are bearish.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 1687.8 and 1677.8
Resistance: 1696 / 1710 / 1735
Support: 1680 / 1670 / 1655
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.