New Bull Starting in Platinum?A few interesting points about XPTUSD and why it might be time to look at long positions:
1. 7-Year cycle in XPTUSD is bottoming out right now.
2. We are seeing a backtest of the initial breakout similar to what happened in 2000-2001
3. XPTUSD production is going to see major cutbacks moving forward from South Africa
4. Above ground stocks are winding down which has put extreme pressure on prices for the last 4 years
5. Should the DYX fail to breakout decisively over 102 before the end of 2016, then the ZARUSD could strengthen.
XPTUSD
Long Platinum after another pullbackPlatinum could meet strong resistance here - will d price action respect the downtrend line or a bottom is in and prices are ready to rebound higher?
watching the 1185 handle and if that breaks then Platinum could go higher as it will trigger an Inverse Head and Shoulder formation. Buy on pullback 1156 or breakout at 1186 target 1226 and 1256 respectively stop 1146.
Only a break below 1146 will allow bears to roam lower.
And now palladiumAfter travelling on the overbought region for some time, it seems XPDUSD is now ready to retrace. We just touched the 0,618 angle of the fib speed resistance and already heading south. First target on 0,5 angle around 620's coinciding with last peak, and secondary on the 0,382 on the 600's. Wait for your signal and enjoy the short.
All precious metals are on this same trend. Check my idea on XPTUSD and watch how XAUUSD will follow this week.
Platinum shortlooking for confirmation on a 3rd higher low of 3 in the XPTUSD bull run. Stop out level is higher than the first highest high as well as near R1 stop for monthly level. 1000 area has proven to be strong resistance. I would suggest a averaging in price of 995, ranging maybe from 990 to 1000 area for asks. I think the white triangle should play out to allow the 50 and 200 ema to get very close or maybe cross for a fakeout before at least more ranging if not a larger drop down.
XPTUSD - Short TermChart describes better than words. :)
Short's possibility is much more than longs but have to watch prices carefully.
XPTUSD - Near-term Ichimoku short setupSee comments on chart. Important level is 824, if broken may provide a sustained bearish path. On higher timeframes, Ichimoku is clearly bearish. The forecast PA path with arrows is just given as an indication to emphasize key levels and lines.
Aggressive trade: as described in chart
Conservative trade: wait for break at 824 to enter, reassess according to cloud configuration.
$XPT v $USD - Predictive Model Eyes Lower Targets | #platinumQUICK ANALYSIS:
Prior analysis released this past May 2015 is replaced by this update. Following defines and explains the Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets, as well as the "Geo":
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The following targets are defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model as:
1 - TG-2 = 849.0 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a quantitative target ("Quant-Target") ... All Quant-Targets are usually associated with retracements (not reversal), as well as the definition of future R/S levels if entering a new price territory, or validation of prior R/S levels if revisiting prior price territories.
The relevance of a Quant-Target is that it is usually associated with a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618;
2 - TG-Lo = 629.8 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a qualitative target ("Qual-Target") ... All Qual-Targets are usually associated with reversals (not just retracement), defining a probable tip-top or bottom-tip reversal if entering a new price territory.
The relevance of a Qual-Target is that it is usually associated with a reversal in the Fibonacci order of 0.618 to extensions levels of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618;
AND
3 - TG-Lox = 487.9 - 13 NOV 2015 - This is a Qual-Target and abides to same condition as above.
GEO:
The Geo is a refinement of the Mr. William "Bill" Wolfe's namesake Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com), taking into consideration internal construction conditions, as well as compensating for geometric distortions that occur in the Wolfe Wave. While the Wolfe Wave defines the 1-4 Line projection as a target once price reverses from Point-5, this target is sometimes missed by a margin that relates to how much adverse excursion occurred off of Point-5.
Hence, the Geo takes into account these adverse excursions in price, which define an altered, distorted geometry ("Geo"). This distorted geometry now associates Point-5, 5' and 5'' with high-probability targets, into a "Geo Off-Set Rule", numbered as follows:
#1 - IF price reverses from Point-5, THEN 1-4 Line is the HIGH-PROBABILITY target (Wolfe Wave rule as well);
#2 - IF price reverses from Point-5', THEN price level of Point-4 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target;
AND
#3 - IF price reverses from Point-5'', THEN price level of Point-3 becomes the HIGH-PROBABILITY target.
DISCUSSION:
Note that price has already defined Point-5'', whereas it has yet to define TG-2 = 849.0. As stated in the rule Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, Point-5'' definition is associated with a high-probability target at price level of Point-3 - This would ths point to a high-probability of price retracing to 1262.9 - See following chart:
While TG-2 remains pending at this time, if and once this target is hit, it would also be associated with price retracing (not reversing) to one of the three Fibonacci values, namely: 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618.
Interestingly, as per following chart, satisfaction of both 1) Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 as well as 2) Quant-Target would put these two conditions into near-perfect alignment - See following chart:
OVERALL:
Predictive/Forecasting Model, as well as the Geo, call for a price relaxation from circa 849.0 to 1262.9, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model alone calls for a moderate probability of price eventually reaching TG-Lo = 629.8, thus defining the following probable price action:
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Platinum Target 20 WMAWeekly RSI may have bottomed and this offer a great swing long opportunity with a great RR.
With a risk of 10 -20 points, the reward that we are after is at least 60 points (1:3) ratio. Here are some of the reasons to go long:
- Platinum is oversold after the FOMC statement that had a revision lower on US GDP
- Dollar weakness has not transpired into any buying but that is about to change
- A 20 WMA reconnect could be the play for a corrective rally
- 4 hour RSI bullish divergence thus a corrective rally is overdue
$XPT vs. $USD Eyes Support @ 999.80 | $AUD $CAD $CHF #XPT $XAUFriends,
PREDICTIVE MODEL:
Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes the following probable bearish target:
- TG-Lo = 999.8 - 11 JUN 2015
MARKET GEO:
In terms of market geometry, overlay of 2 Geos is pointing to the nearing of a probable support in this long-term MONTHLY chart.
The 1-3 Line of the smaller Geo is likely to play a significant impact on future price action, and might be considered as a trigger line when watching for further price advance.
However, the underside extension of the larger Geo remains the true Line-In-The-Sand against any advance, but price is likely to remain at a distance from these levels for a while.
OVERALL:
This represents a long-term play. In terms of Forex relevance, platinum is one of the rarest metal, and has the tendency to move or often lead the way among other precious metals. As this analysis suggests that a nadir is near or may have been reached, one should perhaps look at gold-sensitive Forex pairs, such as $AUD, $CAD, $CHF for a near-correlation in price action. Do not expect a one-to-one correlation, but a monthly or weekly chart could point to comparable tendencies - HINT: Look for a widening in platinum vs. gold as one possible leading indicator.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
Twitter:
David Alcindor
-----
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Platinum Lost CauseYesterday 1120 high was a good entry to short and we may have miss it. However, we believe that the market will let us enter again albeit at a less favourable price.
Remember, we wait for price to hit 20 dma as confirmation and only once it fail to close of 20 dma then the big size short is warranted.
Therefore, it pays to be patience and wait for all of the planets to align.
Weekly Technical View - Platinum Only a break higher above 1185 or out of the long term down trend line will be sufficient for the bulls to retake control.
Short in this sellers market.
Price continue to trade below the 20 WMA which is now sitting at 1180. Our stance remains the same here, Platinum to have a corrective rally as long as it trades within the triangle - creating higher low and lower high.
As long as it trades within the long term downtrend line, we will not go long.
XPTUSD - Daily Technical ViewWe covered all short positions made at 1150-1160 level at 1125-1135 level.
Once again, price found support on that Green trendline - a rising higher low made since 2015 low of 1086. This further suggest that Platinum is also trading in a Symmetrical triangle pattern with a biased for further downside.
1) Break above 1186 we will go long
or
2) Break below 1115 we will go short to target previous low
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Platinum corrective rallies are SHORT opportunitiesPlatinum did hit a low at 1086 but a corrective move was is now confirmed as a bear trap. Price did recover but failed to break above 50% retracement at 1185 and so the longer trend continues. Only a break higher above 1185 or out of the long tern down trend line will be sufficient for the bulls to retake control.
Short in this sellers market.