Platinum might have set un a long-term baseThe precious metals markets are looking pretty bullish right now, and I think that platinum might have set in a major base at $1150 in February. It's still too early to determine whether or not the down trend in place since last July is over, but technicals are telling me that a long term low might be established if all metals rally in March. The risk/reward ratio for a long strategy with a stop below $1140 (watch out for spreads on this metal) appears attractive, and my first upside target is at $1290. If all goes well, a new rally will lead to a breach above $1300 later this year.
I'm bullish above $1150 and will remain confident on this strategy so long as platinum remains above $1180 (horizontal monthly support).
XPTUSD
#Platinum #DoubleConfluenceLike Gold, Silver and Palladium, Platinum is preparing for the bullish run. First nice confluence is overlap of 127.2 and 23.6 @1257. Nice for first target on long. The second confluence is 61.8 (1392) and 61.8 (1388) which comes at nice structure and could be the second target on long.
Look at the price difference Platinum vs. Gold
Silver set to outperform gold and platinum next yearThe platinum/silver ratio indicates right now that silver will likely be the best precious metal to buy at the start of 2015 if all metals start rallying like in January 2014. Please see my previous ideas on silver and on the silver/gold ratio to see why this metal in particular has caught my eye lately. If you're bullish on precious metals right now, give preference to silver as it has the most to gain if a bullish metals market does set in.
Cyclical low being set in platinum market ?I've been watching platinum closely for the past month and a half as I discovered a mean-reversion pattern that has repeated itself several times since 2011.
Using a 200-Day Disparity Index, which measures how far current price is from the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200), you can clearly see that platinum tends to set cyclical lows when it is around 17-20% below its EMA200. Significant bounces have also occurred when the DI200 is only at -13%.
Since November, platinum has stabilized above the $1180 handle. The fact that this corresponded to the metal being at parity with gold is worth noting. Check out the descending trend line that has thus far allowed for a limited technical bounce the past couple of weeks. The May/June 2012 and June 2013 lows were set on this trend line, and platinum bounced all the way back to and even above its EMA200 afterwords.
The EMA200 is currently at $1355, and it will slowly descend as time goes by. If platinum manages to remain above the $1180 level by the end of the year, I think there will be some upside potential at the start of 2015 just like there was at the beginning of 2014. I therefore believe it's worth entertaining the idea of going long in the platinum market towards the end of December when it might be a little more clear as to whether or not price will remain above $1170-80$. If so, a stop at around $1140 should be good enough to be able to target the EMA200 during the first couple of months of 2015.
Platinum/USD to 1340 or higherObservations
1. Divergence between price and stochastic as seen on chart
2. Expecting price to rise to the 1.618 Fib extension @ 1358
3. 100EMA will probably come down to meet the 161.8 Fib extension
4. Entry discussed on the H4 time frame (basically on a break of 100EMA on H4)
5. Stop Loss in case of entry is below the lows
Platinum 4H American Session (13.08.2014) Technical AnalysisThe Platinum / US Dollar pair (XPTUSD) 4H Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The XPTUSD pair has made a correction and now is exactly on 0.5 of fib. The KUMO offer now its support. The daily diagram is marginally bullish.
So the first think in mind is that XPTUSD pair will move towards to EMA 200 & Kijun Sen. MACD and RSI is turning bullish.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The pair is above the KUMO, breaching now the Tenkan Sen.
There is a double bottom at 1465. The fib from 1459.3 to 1482.5 (projection) shows the 1475 as first target.
Long for EMA 200 first. Stop loss under 1467.