Brent Crude Oil price takes a bashing overnighDuring the past two years, oil, along with many other raw material commodities which are used to produce energy products, has been very volatile.
Perhaps given the nature of its supply, which is largely in the hands of the OPEC+ countries whose national economies depend on the export of oil around the world, the 'oil cartel' has a lot of bargaining power over its consumers, hence in times of economic strife or geopolitical instability, oil prices have always been ones to watch.
First of all there was supply chain and logistical curtailment due to lockdowns across many Western countries, which led to the increase in the price of oil during 2020 and 2021, and then the sanctioning of the settlement accounts of Russian oil companies by European governments which led to any oil bought having to be settled in Rubles in bank accounts in Moscow, leading to rapidly accelerating ruble prices and oil supply constraints for European customers.
Therefore, oil prices have been high for 2 years, however this morning during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) took a dive in value and by 8.45am UK time, it was languishing at $76.92 per barrel, a steep drop over yesterday's values and a very noticeable drop compared to this time last week when the value was $82.27 per barrel on January 23, its highest value this month.
During the past 30 days, Brent Crude Oil has been very volatile in its values, having begun the month at a low point of $73.08 on January 4, before accelerating past the $80 mark by mid January, then retracting again before heading back to the high of over $82 last week, and now it is back down to the mid-$70s again.
Despite the overall rollercoaster ride of volatility this month, Brent Crude Oil is down overall by 4.3% during the past 30 days.
This has been an interesting period for commodities traders, and whilst in many Western markets, gasoline prices are now far lower than they were six months ago, the price of crude oil continues to fluctuate considerably.
In some cases, vehicle fuel prices at the pumps on the retail market have decreased by over 50p (British) or 50c (Euro) per liter in six months. For example, in July 2022, motorists in the United Kingdom were paying approximately £1.99 per liter, now unleaded fuel is readily available at around £1.50 per liter, and in France, in July 2022 unleaded fuel was retailing at an extremely high 2.20 Euros per liter, whereas during January 2023 it has been selling at anywhere between 1.70 and 1.87 Euros per liter.
Volatility is the the lifeblood of trading, so says the old adage, and the oil price this month has certainly been on point in this respect.
Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.
Xtiusd
XTIUSD...SELL (5% Drawdown)The price of oil per barrel will definitely soar high but I see a chance of sell opportunity before its long momentum, currently looking at a clear sell chance for at least $4 price reduction per barrel of oil. XTIUSD is currently trading in my supply zone....so i expect more sells to jump into this market.
NB: All eyes on the breakout zone (blue box region) to accelerate or decelerate rice movements.
Red box ( rejection zone) might or will serve as a chance for another entry for sell or a push up to soar price movements high.
OIL | XTIUSD | USOIL |USO |DECRYPTERSHI PEOPLE WELCOME TO DECRYPTERS
We may see 4H to Play first and NEXT WEEK Possible REVERSAL in oil, AS Reversal pattern is on Daily Timeframe it will take 7-13 candles At least to reach Targets 0f 86$ - 88$ , The Demand for oil will increase once china is Fully open
XTIUSD...SELL (11% Drawdown)After XTIUSD visited 5th December's supply zone yesterday, the market had a rejection of price value. I'm expecting the price of crude oil to revisit the $70.30 per barrel!
USDWTI D1 - Short SignalUSDWTI D1 - Still lots pending at the moment with regards to the dollar, we are starting the week off bullish, with the dollar up .15$% on the day, cable down .25%, XAU down .27% and WTI down a huge 0.5% so far... Hoping to see deeper corrections. But ultimately, we need this D1 candle on these ***USD setups to close red. Back on that heavy $80/b psychological price
USOIL | DECRYPTERS | US OILHi people Welcome to our OIL Analysis
We put Our Technical and Fundamental Analysis together So both can be Combined
1- My Political Aspect is FED wanted to show people that their polices are working the oil prices will move inflation again.
2- Strength of USD was keeping US inflation low relative to Other countries ,but if USD get deep dive more it'll also fuel the inflation.
3- If US make USD more strong they can buy oil at cheaper prices i Really think it will go for that , Four our Technical point of view look our Dxy Analysis.
XTIUSD Short Trade from 81.25Basing this trade off of a trendline touch on the weekly timeframe and the weekly 100EMA being aligned. Coupled with the previous high made on XTI's downtrend, makes for solid confluences for an intraday short. I am not expecting crazy pips from the zone but will have a modest target as Friday is profit taking day for institutes. Stops at 43 pips and full tp at 150. Would prefer to see this occur later in the day around 3-4pm GMT.
Any criticism appreciated, and if you've spotted this trade too!
Happy trading.
Oil price on the backfoot in early 2023 despite high demandIf the year 2022 can be remembered for any recurring feature in terms of demand for commonly traded commodities, it can be remembered as a year of high energy prices across many Western countries, with oil being one of the most prized consumable commodities of the year.
In the summer of 2022, Fuel stations across Europe and the United Kingdom were charging in excess of 2 euros / 2 pounds for a liter of unleaded fuel for vehicles, and energy costs for domestic heating, reliant on gas or oil, were soaring, especially in the United Kingdom where approximately 30 energy companies became insolvent and left the market in late 2021, resulting in far less competition at a time during which the raw material itself was in huge demand for geopolitical reasons.
Demand remains very high for crude oil, and as many European nations continue to enforce draconian sanctions on one of the world's largest suppliers of oil - the Russian Federation - prices have been volatile throughout the last 12 months.
Interestingly, however, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) started the year 2023 in a stagnant position.
Indeed, Brent Crude Oil futures for February 2023 settlement are 1.86% down compared to the end of December and currently valued at approximately $78.1 per barrel.
Stocks in 'big oil' companies are still quite strong, however, as publicly listed North American oil giantr ExxonMobil is reportedly set to report $56 billion in profit for 2022, marking the highest number ever achieved by a non-state-owned company and almost triple its 2021 result.
Whether these companies are riding on their bonanza year which 2022 turned out to be is yet to be seen, as it is possible that investors may view these massive profits with caution if 2023's initial few weeks does not demonstrate the same level of high prices as 2022 did.
If the natural gas market is any indicator of the performance of other commodities which are equally affected by the same geopolitical constraints, it is worth noting that natural gas prices are now back down to the level they were at this time a year ago, before the war started and before any sanctions on Russian gas companies were imposed which made it impossible for customers in Europe to pay Russian suppliers for gas, resulting in curtailing of supply.
It appears that those which owe money are now being chased, and just recently a Russian court approved an order that the assets of German industrial gas firm Linde worth $500 million be frozen at the request of a Gazprom-led joint venture, citing unfulfilled commitments.
There is a 'new normal' now that the markets are beginning to adjust to.
This morning, during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude oil crept back up slightly to the $79 per barrel mark, but, apart from a dip to $76 per barrel in mid-December, today's value is the lowest it has been since December 2021, before all of the sanctions began.
Looking back over the year 2022, Brent Crude oil reached a high of $127 per barrel in early March 2022 and then displayed a huge degree of volatility before spiking again as it reached $123 per barrel in August 2022.
It is an interesting market, because the lower prices at which oil is now trading have been passed onto the consumer. Fuel for vehicles in Europe and Britain is nowhere near the astronomical cost that it reached in the summer of 2022, and France introduced an energy price cap meaning that it cannot go over a certain level.
Perhaps the initial wave of volatility was due to the high demand and sudden restriction of supply, as well as the change in settlement channel as European customers must now settle in Rubles via banks in Moscow in order to make it possible for gas and oil suppliers in Russia to be able to receive payment for supplying these energy commodities internationally.
Either way, looking at the annual chart makes for very interesting reading, as volatility as great as this in an age-old energy resource is rare under usual circumstances.
Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
XTIUSD MAKING ITS WAY TO THE NEXT RESISTANT1. I have analyzed XTIUSD previously here:
2. The price respected the Demand Zone, took the order at the expected 79.41 and went up.
3. Since the price is reacting from the Weekly Dominant Zone, the rally move is capable of achieving the 87.00 mark in the long run.
4. Let's see the next move for XTIUSD. I will be updating the next setup whenever available.
USOIL LONG Hi Traders,
A bounce from the bottom trendline more likely to happen.
Target price: 76.1
Thank you. Happy Trading!
USDWTI D1 - Short Signal PendingUSDWTI D1 - Finally starting to see a bit of support here on crude oil… 76.50 is still out preferable sell zone, healthy correction from latest swing high to swing low, which ties is nicely with out preciously broken support zone.
Simply looking for the retest of that broken zone to position ourselves short, in aim of fresh lows.
XTIUSD...SELL (11%)Expecting a barrel of XtiUsd to fall to $71.300 per barrel. As XtiUsd rejected from its two previous highs on Thursday New York opening and todays Pre-new York session. I'm looking for some market to to supply orders and hence which in turn will lead to this drawdown!!!
USOIL 5th DECEMBER 2022Organization of Petroleum Exporters and its Allies (OPEC+) maintained production cuts, keeping production at 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November to 2023. Oil prices weakened as China's zero-covid policy weighed on demand. However, after the regulation was relaxed in a number of cities including Beijing and Shanghai, oil prices slowly moved up. WTI and Brent oil are significantly bullish, this is partly driven by the easing of China's covid-19 lockdown.
Technically, oil prices are still in a bearish trend, but bullish is possible in the next few days until the resistance area. recommendation to sell in the resistance area marked by the red area. Prices can go higher, pay attention to several points that can make oil prices tend to be bullish: opec policy, easing lockdown in china, and weakening USD.
Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim More Upsides, Bulls In ControGold price climbed higher and traded above the $1,780 resistance. Crude oil price is also rising and might climb further higher above $82.50.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
· Gold price found support near the $1,720 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar.
· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,792 on the hourly chart of gold.
· Crude oil price gained bullish momentum above the $80.00 resistance zone.
· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $81.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Gold price formed a base above the $1,720 level against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh increase and was able to clear the $1,750 and $1,765 resistance levels.
There was a clear move above the $1,780 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,800 level and traded as high as $1,804 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction below the $1,800 level.
Gold Price Hourly Chart
An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,792 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,792 on the hourly chart of gold.
The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,745 swing low to $1,804 high. The next major support is near the $1,775 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.
The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,745 swing low to $1,804 high is also near $1,775, below which there is a risk of a larger decline.
In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,750 support zone. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,800 level.
The main resistance is now forming near the $1,805 level, above which it could even test $1,820. A clear upside break above the $1,820 resistance could send the price towards $1,840.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
Crude oil price also started a fresh increase from the $73.63 support zone against the US Dollar. The price was able to clear the $75.00 and $78.00 resistance levels.
The price even gained pace above the $80.00 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, the bears appeared near the $83.30 level. A high was formed near $83.30 and the price is now correcting gains.
Oil Price Hourly Chart
On the downside, an immediate support is near the $81.00 level. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near $81.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73.93 swing low to $83.30 high.
The next major support is near the $80.40 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline towards $78.50 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73.93 swing low to $83.30 high.
Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move towards the $75.00 support zone. On the upside, the price might face resistance near $82.00.
The first major resistance is near the $82.80 level. The main resistance sits near the $83.30 level, above which the price might accelerate higher towards $85.00 or even $86.00.
Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
XAUUSD BULISH Traders we have brought a very interesting pair for you all as trial in this pair we has a loss of 40 pips and profit of 250 pips so what we are expecting is that the gold has the opportunity to go up till 1675 for now which makes this trade a buy potential of 250 pips
so hopefully this idea will make you all more profitable please do have the risk management necessory as it is gold we are talking about
USOIL 1st NOVEMBER 2022US President Joe Biden will ask oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering the cost of living in the country. Biden will ask Congress to consider requiring oil companies to pay a tax penalty. Biden has previously encouraged oil companies to increase production rather than use profits for share buybacks and dividends. The government is also relying on releasing supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the supply crisis.
XTIUSD...BUY (3.88%)Entry: 84.900
TP: 88.000
SL: 83.620
Weekly TF: On the weekly TF, XTIUSD needs to bounce back and form a H&S...with Oil moving to $62.5 per barrel. According to my fibo mark; market entry at $89 has been in place...but NB: (market can move to that region for the second time before selling to $70.687 and $63.440 per barrel).
Daily TF: There's a possibility that, if a barrel of Oil breaks above $88.010 and ignores the weekly fibo entry at $89, the $97 dollar price per barrel would be achieved and hence a strong sell to $63 per barrel.
4H TF: Expecting a market correction on the triangle formed between 14th and 19th October. During the NY session on 19th October, there was a breakout on the 4H candle. This guides the market sentiment for a buy clause activaion to fill the spots in the triangle's formation.
2H TF: EMA 8 and 50, guides the 2H candle for a perfect entry at $84.930 for a bull run. XTIUSd is currently in the rejection zone after taking some demand around 483 per barrel (Yellow Box), we see a clear rejection at the demand zone as shown above.
1H TF: my execution on XTIUSD