Bears, beat it! Full picture. All scenarios.Yes, for the past few weeks we have gathered and brainstormed a lot of confusing signals.
Neither the bears nor the bulls truly feel save as of this moment, as we are probably on the verge
of trend changing or forming a continuous months-long flat.
We can safely say, that is not a simple task to forecast the price movements in these conditions!
Every newborn candle right now can either grow as trend-killer for the bears or
a sophisticated killer-trap for the bulls.
The market has never been so tense.
While some believe that the price has finally touched the bottom at 6500,
others continue to spread bear lies(we'll see, no pushing)!
In the past we have experienced two massive "pumps", both rocketing bitcoin price
up to 10-20K+ region.
It took me some time to become able to distinctively see the wave pattern
that now you can easily identify with your eyes on the above chart.
We are dealing with two great short periods of capitalizing the bitcoin market,
followed by two periods of depression. Well, after every pump(dump)
there must come a correction of the price - that is the law.
Basically, it's the only statement all traders in the world agree with =)
Thanks to the days of my uninterrupted focused observation of BTCUSD charts
I can now distinctively tell all the waves and their retrospective relations
inside both correction structures that were built after the 1st and the 2nd Great pumps.
As many of you know, market loves resembling historical data.
The most simple and straightforward way of analyzing the market -
looking for the patterns and wave models in the historical data
that look a lot like current market situation.
Then you simply collect a pool of vectors, calculate your arithmetic
averages and voila! Now you can tell a specific possibility values for
some pattern to occur in the future, or the probabilility of the price reaching X price.
(This data is the only data we can actually get out of technical analysis).
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That was not the story I wanted to tell you, yet. Now the big guns are coming in...
Here's two simple ideas:
"the correction of the second pump should evolve with about the same dynamics
that the correction experienced after the first investment rally evolved with,
if the recapitalization happens in the same market conditions".
"the complex dynamics of cryptomarket de-recapitalization is based on the
economic cycles, common nature cycles, performance of the capital redistribution bottlenecks,
exchange providers... While isolated, any capitalization model with the same input
parameters will produce 100% equal result."
And here's the big news: the second depression is about to end(has ALREADY gone through
all evolution stages we observed in the first giant correction ever). For good!
It is most logical to expect the new great market pump after seeing
the same market picture on Jan 1 2020 as on Jan 15 2019 .
I'm presenting you with the exact correction model that both great depressions
strictly followed during their evolution, thus proving the bulls right
for the medium/long term trading.
First of all, you must remember, that these two giant corrections were formed
in somewhat different market conditions, and we can not expect
to see the same pattern without changes again and again and again, right?
But wait 'till you chew up this data and swallow it liquid!
After "cleaning the noise", I was able to identify the correction model
that is building up right now(finishing, actually) and both corrections fall
perfectly within the laws of this correction model.
Yes, we are experiencing ABSOLUTELY the same correction pattern forming
that we have already seen after the first pump!
When I finally saw this c.model I had no more bearish thoughts left in my brain no more.
We are going up. Bitcoin has grown, a lot of new technologies/sites/companies/people
were introduced to the btc infrastructure all over the world.
Is is hard to believe that bitcoin whale-shorters have now the power to seriously
drop the price. Well, they tried! They have brought us down to 6.5k twice< of course if they
want to -they will drop it even further but with a very high expenses level.
The "all-time" 3k bottom and the same correction dynamics(compared to the previous depression),
plus the good-looking fundamentals along with the obvious infrastructure growth
signal us that it is not a very probable scenario in which the price drops anywhere close to the previous 3k bottom.
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xyzwxyzwxyz - 11 waves Correction Model.
It is hard to distinguish these wave models, but once you do,
you won't have the bearish thoughts left on BTCUSD anymore...
...for months.
Why is it so hard to identify this pattern in both corrections?
That is THE GOLDEN question.
And I have a suggested answer...
First of all let's clear something up. We can not expect the second depression period
last the same amount of time. Why? Because when the traders have the previous same-situation
chart layout before their eyes - they think much more faster and the complex processes of
liquidity redistribution evolve faster, less time needed for the market to react to a certain change..
Just like that, the previous depression lasted 12 months,
and I strictly believe that 6 months of correction evolution this time is more than enough
for the BTC to become oversold and fully finish its big-cycle correction model.
And to prove this point of view let's look at the charts...
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1. Both corrections have the exact same layout and the very much resembling 11 waves
correctional architecture (the exact same, really).
2. Both corrections have a bearish triangle placed at wxyzw(purple).
3. Both corrections have a falling bullish wedge placed at their ends on the very last
z waves.
4. The dimensions that both corrections follow are very much alike.
6. Both the very last x waves of these corrections end with a small
but very distinctive pattern - expanding bullish wedge(purple curved line),
P.S. kind of, maybe we should call it a simple xyz zigzag, as these figures
seem to be heavily deformed by the bullish pressure.
7. For both "expanding bullish wedges" we can observe STRONG
classic bullish divergences on RSI 14/56(class A divergences)
and Stochastic(class A + class C divergences).
Are you still in doubt? Then read the next part... This one is for the skeptics.
-----------------------------------------
You may ask: "now, wait a minute... what about the differences?"
1. Once again - it would be not smart at all to expect the market to evolve
while following the exact same c.model with exactly the same dimensions.
Nevertheless, that is exactly what happened, if you look closely at
each and every wave and analyze it.
2. The pen-penultimate wave "x". This wave is much deeper than it's shorter and
weaker twin from the first ever pump's correction.
Guess now, what did all the bears do when they have had realized that the current correction
strictly follows the previous depression wave c.model? Of course they dumped the market!
They knew that the masses would most probably be dropping this wave,
'cause that is exactly what has had happened before.
This is obvious, right?
3. Yes, this notorious penultimate(10th) wave "y".
This wave from the second depression is much higher that the same wave
from the first depression?
But what does it tell us? - Exactly the opposite thing(the same, really)!
First of all -
Secondly - during the first depression this wave got a minuscule amount of
volume coming(and the previous one too).
Thus the small wave height - the bulls were very protective(in the first depression),
no one entered the market, the shock of the depression period
kept'em afraid to invest big - there was simply NOT ENOUGH DATA on this asset's performance.
This behavior weakly signals that the 6000-6500 is the bottom(Sep 7 2018, it wasn't 3k yet).
And what happens when traders start to see the exact same correction pattern
happen again? They will try to buy at the dips of the very last waves of this correctional
model. Thus, when it has had become clear that the pattern was screaming in their face "BUY"(Oct 21 2019)
al lot of traders saw it and called into requisition. Of course they tried to buy this dip and pumped the
price. Maybe some big investors pumped it, while observing the very same c.model.
(Please, don't mind me speculating, I may be wrong here).
So we dumped harder, but then we even much more harder pumped.
The masses synchronized(a lot of traders predicted those two waves.
And why does why the very last wave look the same?
Once again they panicked and suspended most trading,
in order to be safe from a "crazy" deformed wave,
that they created themselves, when the market was so predictable.
(This predictability - the real power source behind the future 3rd Great Pump,
as well as both previous pumps).
Anyway, as for me, this abnormally dumped "x"(9th wave) and high penultimate(10th) wave "y"
seem even more like a confirmation of the proposed theory.
It only proves that the market should follow already well-known
correction models, while influencing their evolution with this
retrospective psychology link channel from the past.
4.That's it. Both corrections follow the same law, the very same(very basic, actually) xyzwxyzwxyz
correctional waves model. Nothing has dramatically changed.
Even counterclockwise - It is just another cycle, and
we are bullish to the bones now.
The current market state:
The historical data:
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Forecast?
While this may seem like a super-heavy bullish confirmation, we should not forget,
that the market doesn't read out ideas and follow them nor it repeats itself,
drawing the same patterns. And even more - many economic and political processes
are able to change the whole retrospection, making this chart obsolete.
Whatever we saw as an impulse we may see as a smaller part of the correctional flow,
and vice versa.
Still, I believe Bitcoin will follow its bullish trend like a 1000ton train.
Yes, there will be lots of dips, and, probably, even new bottoms.
But the chart can not lie - the price has discovered its median.
--------------------------
Warning... (The following is IMHO and it is me thinking aloud, it may even
be just my sick fantasy, so be free to discuss and criticize(am I paranoid? NO ONE TO TELL!).
This is a warning about whale-marketmaker's way of thinking.
They do and they WILL put some branches in your forward bicycle wheel, always!
How? For example the high penultimate wave "y"(10th wave)... Yes, they may pump
in the dip of the correction and the new wave would be much higher the expected height.
Yes, they may even dump(that's their favorite dish for the past year).
Imagine them observing all this beautiful picture. I'm sure there's a lot of whales that would
benefit from dumping the price down to 6800-6900 to form the complete inverse head n shoulders.
Or they may wanna test the bottom again... then don't be surprised when with the help of
order books bombardment with a massive amount of sell orders some whale drops the price below 7k.
The Bears are still strong and have a good position, considering that there's still no explicit
trend reversal confirmation.
Yes, the market looks like it's about to flip. And no, we don't really know if it will.
But if you do know anything about trading, you shouldn't not call yourself a true bear or a true bull right now.
Because in THESE conditions - the safer trade is not trading at all ,
or trading with strategies that work well in the flat conditions(trying to bounce inside the range 6900-7600),
I personally try to avoid such an unstable market.
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FORECAST.
So here is a forecast based on technical analysis, careful consideration of all the factors my mind
could process, my eyes could find, fundamental analysis, news, other analytics proposes and ideas...
BASE Scenario A. - The price is going to surge sooner or later. The current correction model formed suggests
that the whole xyzwxyzwxyz complex correction is completely finished and we are
about to see the new trend formation. If this scenario plays out -
we may even observe a prolonged impulse, bringing us up into the overbought zone,
and a giant fractal structure binding the 2 known Great Pumps, the following depressions and
the new group of impulses(yet to be formed) into a Giant Impulse, promising long-term
capitalization pump. Is it true? I believe so. Time will tell.
Anyway, there are other probable subscenarious:
Subscenario a. - The price experiences an uplifting breakout(with almost no
new bearish candles, quickly transforming into a massive impulse,
lifting us up to at least 7700, with possible reaching up to 8200/10000 and even higher.
Subscenario b. - We first observe a small correction(maybe a fake dump,
to bring down all the bulls with their SLs) down to 6800-6900 first.
Then experience the impulse I've been forecasting for many days in a row.
(Tripple bottom formation or inverse head and shoulders on 1D).
Subscenario c. - We may get ourselves another depression continuation and
observe a 15 waves c.model being formed out of the current 11 waves correction. (Doubt that)
Subscenario d. - we experience a long and boring months-long flat.
Bulls and bears both burning in the frames of the narrow flat-range.
Then we finally experience the IMPULSE!
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P.S. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. So no more 6k(av.probability). No more 3k(high.probability).
And definitely no more 1k for years(I say only some global disaster is able to kill BTC now)!
I'm glad to hear any feedback!
The last days I was a little bit confused myself, closed some open "buy" positions,
in order to protect myself from this market. So don't be surprised if you see 1 or 2 bearish
ideas published by me. They are all based on days of raging research.
And they are legit too(I suppose so). But this chart is the final masterpiece in the series
of my publications on BTCUSD. Bitcoin shows such a text-book price action,
BTCUSD is quickly(relatively fast, of course) growing with new bullish impulses formed.
Now we should only wait for a clear confirmation. And go full buy-in)
Sorry for the wall of words - there have been a lot of thinking going on these days...
Check out my previously published ideas, if you must.
They are all pieces of a single puzzle and relate to each other.
