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GBPUSD Long after important news todayGBPUSD went into an uptrend after it broke the January/February downtrend range. (Post-SNB funtimes) In 1 hour BOE Gov Carney can bring us some further good news, like the BOE delivered recently allready. Like in my USDCAD chart I mention here that in 6 hours from now Fed chair Yellen speaks as well. If that is no strong news for USD we have a nice long on our hands here. Yours, DogeBuffet p.s. GBP had good numbers in the last weeks, especially the inflation report.
Long
by DogeBuffet
Is February Just Bad News For Silver?Is silver’s seasonality about to monkey hammer prices lower? As market complacency is regained through a positive non-farm payroll headline, precious metals have been retreating on a stronger dollar and the assumption that the Greece v. European Union tension will end up honky-dory. However, are silver prices about to get pounded lower? Looking at a chart of silver, it seems as though silver is on the verge of falling in conjunction with seasonality; a term to describe cyclic movements in prices. And, prices are already vulnerable. Silver saw a nice rally on the back of gold, moving up from the mid-$15 per toz. range to almost $18.50. However, price action was stopped dead in it’s tracked at the 50-week EMA, and prices began to reverse. This was relatively the same time gold had trouble closing above $1,300 per toz. Currently, price action is having trouble to rise above the 20-week EMA. Looking back to 2012, the weekly chart shows silver’s seasonality to occur roughly in February and, typically, bottoms out in June or July. In 2012, silver lost 30.48 percent from February’s high prior to bottoming out. The shinny metal also fell 43.85 percent and 15.93 percent in those months during 2013 and 2014, respectively. With prices already prone to weakness, this could be a messy few months. If we were to take the mean of the previous three cycles, silver would look to bottom just above $12 per toz. – OUCH! Now, this would be horrible for paper longs but a blessing for bullion buyers. Silver could take a big ‘ol dump here, but in the middle of the cycle includes the expected rate hike from the Federal Reserve. A no-go from Fed’s Janet Yellen could hinder any downside. The European Union and Greece tension could also prevent steep declines if Greece were to axe bailout terms and look to Russia for financing. President Obama also sent a request to Congress in order to use military force against ISIS in Iraq. This comes after the President was so vehement about removing troops from the area, an action that is thought to have given ISIS the power to seize and conquer. There are too many unknowns, but seasonality can give traders an idea of what may come in the future. Hedge accordingly. Original post: bullion.directory
COMEX:SI1!
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold $1,200 – A Line in the SandLets try to rationalize that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made over 50 new “all-time” highs in 2014 and nearly as many in 2013. As I have said, while learning from my near decade in financial markets, trading (and sometimes investing) defies logic. Gold still has been trading rather technically, opposed to what many may say is fundamentally driven. The US dollar index has remained positive for six consecutive months and at multi-year highs. And, two solid (on the surface) gross domestic prints have hindered gold’s upward progress, but lower support levels have held – so have higher resistance levels. Gold has remained somewhat consolidated in 2014 with $1,200 being a key focal point. It has been a psychological line in the sand. Gold has seen high volume while trading to $1,200 per toz. When the yellow metal saw support at $1,200, it has been able to rally to higher resistance levels. Conversely, the inability to garner sufficient support has cause gold to trade lower, particular to support in the mid-$1,170s and low-$1,180s. On the daily chart, gold has broken lower through the ascending channel and began to form a descending channel, which is generally bearish. Gold could push lower, but the new channel has key support levels within its decent. The former ascending and current descending channel (interestingly) intersect at $1,204.50 – price where gold opened up in 2014. This will remain a key level to watch. For more on precious metals, please visit: bullion.directory
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
The Devil's Metal with a 14-HandleSilver has some extreme bearishness built up behind it. I am bullish long-term, but we are very likely to see a $14-hand on the metal. The nearest support is found at $14.62, while resistance can be seen at $15.60 (broken support). There are some growth worries out of China, which could give short-term support. However, there is endless central bank intervention which could hinder any significant upside. A close above resistance could be an inflection point upward, while more downside testing could be likely. A US Mint spokesperson reported Wednesday that the silver 2014 American Eagle has SOLD OUT. The Royal Canadian Mint had to put the maple leaf on ration due to record demand. Who said there's no demand? I would easily play either direction based on price action. For more, please visit: tinyurl.com
COMEX:SI1!Short
by CommoditiesTrader
USDCADI am bearish on the US dollar, and I expect the loonie to gain ground. The BoC is not engaging in reckless monetary policy, even though, at times, traders found them absent. Canadian CPI is stronger - just above two percent YoY - than in the US, which should favor CAD. The Fed wants a weaker dollar. The Fed said it; Yellen said it. Don't fight the Fed, right? The Canadian economy is so-so, but I expect US economics to weaken considerably. There is underlying weakness in the labor market nobody is focused on. Since 2007, over two million jobs in the key 25-54 age demographic have been lost, while almost six million jobs in the 55 and older demo were gained. We don't need to worry about the participation rate. We should be worrying about the bulk of US employees simply passing away. I look for a weaker USD throughout 2015. Fed won't raise rates next year. Fed Pres. Bullard is already talking about extension of QE3 (after several bumblings about needing to raise rates). What 200 measly points of the top can do. Long CAD, Short USD in a position trade. Forecasts do not necessarily follow each other. Simply 1.08 within three months and 1.05 in 12. Check me out of Dukascopy TV: www.youtube.com
Short
by CommoditiesTrader
QE Effects on SP500,USD/JPY,10Y-BONDS,DXYFrom the effects of QE in the past, I want to prepare for the risk in "QE3-end" in the future. I understand that Falling Stock-Price and Rising Bonds has occurred after "QE-end". I want to pay attention to lower interest rates after "QE-end". However, Stock price rise thereafter. This is the key? but.. We are confronted at time of "rate hike", this is different from the past two times. Reaction to this is what about? Market being aware of "rate hike" will be a support factor for USD. But, it is also downside risk of US-Stock.
by shuyatake
Small Caps Lead Into a Recovery, Also Lead into a RecessionThe Russell 2000 has seen strong moves to the downside, as market participants wonder whether or not there is a market top in place (regardless of what CNBC says), Price action is in an important place, resting on an ascending trend line created in mid-June. A break (with a retest and rejection of new resistance/former support is best) would iniate a short position targeting 1,100 over the next couple months. We are likely to see the more riskier equities decline as the Fed "finishes" the QE taper in October, which will likely mix sentiment among traders. The Fed's vague, nonsensical policies will play an important role. If support holds, a retraction could be seen to a secondary descending trend (dotted).
RShort
by CommoditiesTrader
1
USDJPY: Wait and see Pedning FED's decisionSome FOREX pairs's future are really in between the lips of CB's President either ECB for EURUSD or FED and Yellen for USDJPY. Having said that, the future of USDJPY is in the lips of Yellen. there might be a technical correction on the pair in favor or JPY towards 101.5 or even a little bit bellow, but on a long run, particularly of FED increases its interest rate, USD may cross the line of 102.5 and above towards 103.5 and 104. There is the initial sign of an upward movement, with Tenkan Kijun twist bellow the Kumo Cloud. Lagging span is still in the price and didn't cross the Kumo but if it will, this will happen at the tighest part of the cloud, which means that the price may jump after a technical correction. On the BoJ side, everything has been said, and there isn't an expected next move yet, we need to see and wait for FED's announcement.
by Pashabxl