Yellen
USDJPY Updated Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern Break or BounceFX_IDC:USDJPY completed the handle of the Inverse Cup and Handle pattern and its now testing the previous daily low.
If FX_IDC:USDJPY breaks down then it should retest the daily support turned resistance as the 200MA Daily, 50/200 MA Weekly, 50/200MA Monthly Moving Averages should provide support for the price to bounce.
If it bounces from here then it needs to once again challenge the 50MA Daily that rejected the price twice already. It should act as resistance and if FX_IDC:USDJPY is now switching to a downtrend then it should hold.
Either way next week's price action will be decisive
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
EURUSD UncertaintyCurrently, the sentiment of the pair seems to be clearly inclined to a down movement of the price. But we should rather wait until Friday to find out more about what will be the real direction of the pair.
Note that the US is strongly considering a hike in interest rate which can cause the USD to grow much stronger.
However, the France is currently on crosshead of most European traders. Le pen is one step ahead against his opponent. Her winning the presidential election will be crucial for the Euro and combined with the increase in the FED Interest rate we can almost definitely conclude that the EURUSD pair will undergo a downfall.
XAUUSD VS The Wall of Trump and Moving AveragesAfter breaking out of the bullish triangle, FX_IDC:XAUUSD shot up to the 1260 level. Its flight was halted because of the previous support turned resistance that was broken after the Trump Victory and not only that but 3 Moving averages from the Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames.
In my opinion FX_IDC:XAUUSD will have difficulties breaking this level so at least a pullback or even a sideways consolidation is needed to have more fuel for the bull rally. I won't discount the possibility that this might be a bearish retest of the Trump breakdown but if the level is broken and FX_IDC:XAUUSD holds above it then the case for a new bull market in Precious Metals is strengthened.
XAUUSD Nice Bullish TriangleA nice pattern has been forming for a month on FX_IDC:XAUUSD . Time will tell if this is a bullish sign.
USDCHF 50MA Daily Resistance ReduxFX_IDC:USDCHF suddenly shot up and stopped my previous short. So far it indeed got rejected at a daily forming a nice reversal bearish candle. Same parameters as previous trade.
Previous Trade Idea:
Entry: 1.0967
SL: 1.105
TP: (tp1) 1.005 (tp2) 0.9999 (tp3) 0.991
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
USDCHF Daily 50MA Resistance FX_IDC:USDCHF looks like its having difficulties breaking through the 50MA so it looks lika a good short opportunity.
Entry: 1.0089
SL: 1.0105
TP: (tp1)1.005 (tp2)0.99997 (tp3) 0.991
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
USDJPY Short Term Long ReversalAfter it broke and consolidated above 113, FX_IDC:USDJPY is looking to be another good long. Let's see if it can challenge the previous high at 114.8.
Entry: 113.251
SL: 113.2 (Changed to break-even 113.3)
TP: (tp1)113.9 (tp2)114.45 (tp3)114.8
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
EURUSD Daily Support Broken AgainFX_IDC:EURUSD broke through the daily support at 1.0587 with high volume so I suspect it might retest the previous low at 1.05474 before reversing or continuing its journey downwards.
Entry: 1.0585
SL: 1.059
TP: 1.0548
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
XAUUSD Short Term DowntrendFX_IDC:XAUUSD formed a double top and failed to retake the 1240 level after. Lets see how low can it go in the meantime.
Entry: 1236.36
SL: 1238
TP: (tp1)1229 (tp2)1222 (tp3)1216-1214
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
USDJPY Daily Possible Inverted Cup and HandleAfter looking at the daily timeframe for quite sometime, I just noticed the possible Inverted Cup and Handle. Let's see how this forms
USDJPY Backtesting the Short-Term BreakdownFX_IDC:USDJPY has been trying to break the previous support turned resistance at 113. As long as it consolidates in these levels then we can expect a continuation of its descent to at least 112.5-112.3 but if it manages to retake and hold above 113 then we can talk about possible long reversal.
Entry: 112.95
SL: 113.1
TP: 112.5-112.3
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
NZDUSD Valentine's Day MassacreWith Janet Yellen's testimony in front of Congress keeping USD pairs trading within a rather conservative and cautious range, the game plan moving forward relies heavily on the "post-Fed trend" that occurs once tensions have eased and money starts changing hands again. Since then, Trump's comments on immigration reform, protectionism, and heavily manipulated trade deals have all but erased gains seen on the USD, which had been bolstered by rejuvenated market optimism following the FOMC rate hike. Now NZDUSD appears to be rebounding off the 7400 level, harkening back to election night. Just as the post-election rally had been built on the promise of more rate hikes (well, infrastructure spending - stimulus - inflation - economy "cooling" measures, i.e. rate hike), the week ahead will either validate or reject the market's preemptive move to price-in a higher rate. If it does, then perhaps the market respond as it did post-election.
In any case, I expect some downside momentum to carry the pair down to the 7065 level, or 61.8% retracement from the swing low at the end of December and the swing high in early February. The 72200-72250 range provides considerable resistance, so best keep stops at a safe distance from tomorrow's volatile swings.
The Trump/Yellen zigzag on the AUDUSDWith the current USD political uncertainty the AUDUSD pair is likely to move down in a zig zag formation.The expectation is of a FED rate hike in March but due to the Trump administrations criticism of the higher interest rate the speculative community is uncertain about the direction of the pair.
Yellens dollar moveThe usd has lost a few points after Yellens grilling in the Congress.This gave the speculators a sign of a loss in confidence of the March rate hike by the FED.
The resistance trend line is at 0.7720 and it should fade away to the short term support line at 0.696
Prior to the House of reps testimony the usd gained an edge on the aud with the positive economic releases showing an increase in retail sales and an expansionary economic activity.
Dollar Ready for Nex Leg DownLast week in my update on US “dollarindex” I mentioned the expectations of a recovery bounce towards 101.80-102.20 to cover the immediate losses before starting its next leg downside. Since then Dollar managed to bounce and reached our targeted range. Pressure remains on the downside as fundamental outlook for Dollar remain uncertain despite “Janet Yellen” gave hints for a rate rise in March “FOMC” meeting dollar failed to hold its gains and fall sharply lower when she shared her concerns by saying “economic performance has been quite disappointing.”
On Intraday charts technical picture of the Dollarindex indicates a possibility of a slight bounce or trade in range between 100.80-101.30 before it continue to start its expected fresh leg downside, medium term chart shows strong bearish pressure as on daily charts a strong head and shoulder formation is spotted. Immediate expectations are for a move towards target of 98 and then 96.50.
ZB1! 30 Year Bond Daily $ZB_F $TLTDaily Harmonic View on Long Bond in 2nd Day of Yellen Testimony tending long here with stop below 149'30
Gold Continues Moving SidewaysGold closed up 3.1 points on Tuesday but that was basically a move sideways. There was some volatility in the morning when Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen began her testominy. But while the DXY dollar index had a strong move up, Gold stayed basically flat. However, it is clear on the chart that Gold is still trading under the 6 and 8 day moving average so my bias is still to the downside, expecting Gold to hit the 21 day moving average. At some point.
Tonight I've combined the Heikin-Ashi chart with the Volume Profile chart. Today's candle was a Doji which signals either a reversal or continuation of the trend. If Gold does continue this downward trend, then I am still expecting price to hit the 21 day moving average or the gold line at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band.
The final chart tonight is a Volume Profile chart with each profile representing a day's trading. The white line is the closing price for each 30 minutes. Notice how the POC acts like a magnet? Well, the 21 Day moving average (gold line) is also a magnet. Let's see if it can attract price tomorrow or at least by the end of the week.
Disclaimer: this chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
AUDUSD pivotFREE FOOD
"Fed on course to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting: Yellen" -Reuters
This means that the US dollar will appreciate again by around 300 points after the decision.Now seems to be the good time to go long usd. Personally i believe that the AUDUSD is overvalued and should be in the range of 0.65 and 0.7 in the years of 2017/2018 ,but thanks to the rising commodity prices and Donald Trumps fear mongering protectionist policies the aussie dollar stayed clear on the course and has appreciated from falling to 0.72 from 0.75 from the December FED interest rate rate.
EURUSD SHORT CONTINUATIONgoing short at the foment would present best r and r.
simple chart, weekly Fibonacci.
targets could go further act accordingly
Gold Pushes Up Against a Potential Triple TopGold started the day with a big selloff but then recovered after the FOMC and Janet Yellen announced that they would not be raising interest rates at this time. Gold is now attempting to break out of a potential triple top at $1220. If Gold can break through, then the first target would be 1241.7, the .618 fib extention from the bull run that started at the end of last year. With jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30 am EST and Non Farm Payroll on Friday at 8:30 am EST, there can be some potential big moves coming up for the precious metal.
The main chart today is complete with all the indicators that I use. The first chart below is the same but with Japanese Candlesticks, called Heiken Ashi. They are really good for showing trends. As you can see, we are now into day 3 of this uptrend.
On this next chart, I've removed most of the chart objects to show only the basic Bollinger Band and Moving Averages. It's clear to see that price has separated from the 6 and 8 day moving averages and has ridden the mid line of the Bollinger Band higher.
Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments. I am always interested in having thoughtful discussions on price action to improve all our trading.
Retest hourly trend-NZDUSDPrice broke bullish trend and now is testing that trend. Waiting for a decrease of volume to go short till the support. If breaks, we can project the trade till second support.
