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Yellen

Pre-Fed Hike Set ups GOLD/USDThere was low volume since it since like people are not that excited to move the price around the night before the fed hike D-Day. Here are my set ups for tomorrow. Got some extra $DUST and $JDST today on the dips that occurred today. I will expect lower volume tomorrow prior to the release/Yellen Speach. Stay close to the button when it hits 2PM EST. My call is Bull USD/ Bear Gold for tomorrow, like everyone else on wall street. Like always safe trading!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by lambboy3487
1
I'm very short term "long" here- looking for 100+ pipsthe EURUSD has cratered for the last few weeks and I'm left wondering what may happen as we approach 13 year lows on this pair. 1.0470 (give or take a few pips) is the lowest level since 2003, anytime I see a double bottom happen with nothing nearer than 13 years prior I get curious and I can tell you I'm curious. EURUSD could be headed into MASSIVE lows, I'm super bearish with this pair. However it has dropped a goooood amount into fairly historic levels, it should be time for a little pull back/correction. Here is what I'm looking for, a break of the channel, let it reach the current weekly pivot, re-test the trend line break out then move up into 1.0740/50 area. Ideal entry: 1.0650 (remember break out, then retest, I'm not buying the first break) Stops below 1.0570 Target: 1.0740 and 1.0845
Long
by JaredJJohnson
DXY/ USD - FED YELLEN, MESTER & EVANS SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSUSD has traded relatively flat following the slew of Fed speakers in the past 8hrs - despite Dec Fed Funds steepening aggressively from <50% implied probability to 56% probability of a hike. Perhaps more interestingly though, is that a fed hike has never happened in the past unless fed funds have priced 50% and recently we have traded below this figure which makes the December hike somewhat less than certain. From here USD positioning looks tight/ flat, there isnt much directional bias imo given one hike this year is unlikely to drive USD higher (which is the most likely outcome) - thus bets against the fed is where any real alpha will lie (given a fed hike in dec is unlikely to give the USD a boost). We are well behind this years expectations and i think this may even weigh on the December likelihood. Has the Fed lost their trigger finger is perhaps the most important question, closely followed by trumps ability to make a valid run for the presidency, where both have risks assymetrically skewed to the downside.. thus imo its fair to say the USD future is fairly bleak. Equities remain stubborn on the Feds accomodation, and now the USDJPY 100 target has been hit imo EUR$ and GBP$ longs on dips make sense; particularly into 1.295 (a continued tactical trade) where the brexit political uncertainty i feel is massively overpriced already (along with future BOE easing limited here whilst data holds up) - hence taking advantage of these "shock dips" for 100-200pips has/ is paying wel. Whilst he ECB/ FED divergence driver is alot flatter than was anticipated earlier in the year as the fed becomes structurally more dovish and the ECB more hawkish. Fed Yellen: Fed's Yellen: U.S. Banking System is Well Capitalized Fed's Yellen: 'Loan Growth is Picking Up, and Problem Loans' are Down Fed's Yellen: Largest, Most Complex U.S. Banks Will See 'Significant Aggregate Increase in Capital Requirements' Fed's Yellen: Fed Will Raise Big Bank Capital Requirements Through Stress Test Changes Yellen: Fed Will Continue to Work to Tailor Oversight to Riskiness of Banks Yellen Calls for Regulatory Relief for Small Banks Yellen Backs Small Bank Exemption From Volcker Rule Yellen Testimony Rehashes Previous Regulatory Positions Yellen Calls for Regulatory Relief for Small Banks Yellen: 'No Fixed Timetable' For Raising Rates Yellen: Congress Could Allow Fed to Purchase Equities as Possible Future Monetary Policy Tool Yellen: Have 'Never Been Pressured' By Obama Administration on Monetary Policy Yellen: 'Very Much Hope We Can See Greater Diversity' on FOMC Yellen: Labor Force Participation Rate Dropping Due to 'Aging of the Population Yellen: 2% Inflation Target 'Not a Ceiling' Fed Mester: -Wanted September rate hike due to Fed's progress on jobs and inflation mandate and expectation of further progress -Not raising rates risks steeper policy path later on, which could cause recession -Raising rates now will prolong US economic expansion -Policymakers should not discard past, think this time 'completely different' -Says fundamentals of US economy remain sound US economy has shown it is resilient to shocks -Says she expects US economic growth at or above 2 pct the next two years, inflation to return to 2 pct target -Says expects weak business investment to pick up with further US economic growth -Says labor market at full employment, expects it to continue to tighten
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
DXY/ USD - FED YELLEN, MESTER & EVANS SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSUSD has traded relatively flat following the slew of Fed speakers in the past 8hrs - despite Dec Fed Funds steepening aggressively from <50% implied probability to 56% probability of a hike. Perhaps more interestingly though, is that a fed hike has never happened in the past unless fed funds have priced 50% and recently we have traded below this figure which makes the December hike somewhat less than certain. From here USD positioning looks tight/ flat, there isnt much directional bias imo given one hike this year is unlikely to drive USD higher (which is the most likely outcome) - thus bets against the fed is where any real alpha will lie (given a fed hike in dec is unlikely to give the USD a boost). We are well behind this years expectations and i think this may even weigh on the December likelihood. Has the Fed lost their trigger finger is perhaps the most important question, closely followed by trumps ability to make a valid run for the presidency, where both have risks assymetrically skewed to the downside.. thus imo its fair to say the USD future is fairly bleak. Equities remain stubborn on the Feds accomodation, and now the USDJPY 100 target has been hit imo EUR$ and GBP$ longs on dips make sense; particularly into 1.295 (a continued tactical trade) where the brexit political uncertainty i feel is massively overpriced already (along with future BOE easing limited here whilst data holds up) - hence taking advantage of these "shock dips" for 100-200pips has/ is paying wel. Whilst he ECB/ FED divergence driver is alot flatter than was anticipated earlier in the year as the fed becomes structurally more dovish and the ECB more hawkish. Fed Yellen: Fed's Yellen: U.S. Banking System is Well Capitalized Fed's Yellen: 'Loan Growth is Picking Up, and Problem Loans' are Down Fed's Yellen: Largest, Most Complex U.S. Banks Will See 'Significant Aggregate Increase in Capital Requirements' Fed's Yellen: Fed Will Raise Big Bank Capital Requirements Through Stress Test Changes Yellen: Fed Will Continue to Work to Tailor Oversight to Riskiness of Banks Yellen Calls for Regulatory Relief for Small Banks Yellen Backs Small Bank Exemption From Volcker Rule Yellen Testimony Rehashes Previous Regulatory Positions Yellen Calls for Regulatory Relief for Small Banks Yellen: 'No Fixed Timetable' For Raising Rates Yellen: Congress Could Allow Fed to Purchase Equities as Possible Future Monetary Policy Tool Yellen: Have 'Never Been Pressured' By Obama Administration on Monetary Policy Yellen: 'Very Much Hope We Can See Greater Diversity' on FOMC Yellen: Labor Force Participation Rate Dropping Due to 'Aging of the Population Yellen: 2% Inflation Target 'Not a Ceiling' Fed Mester: -Wanted September rate hike due to Fed's progress on jobs and inflation mandate and expectation of further progress -Not raising rates risks steeper policy path later on, which could cause recession -Raising rates now will prolong US economic expansion -Policymakers should not discard past, think this time 'completely different' -Says fundamentals of US economy remain sound US economy has shown it is resilient to shocks -Says she expects US economic growth at or above 2 pct the next two years, inflation to return to 2 pct target -Says expects weak business investment to pick up with further US economic growth -Says labor market at full employment, expects it to continue to tighten
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
GBPUSD Pressure Moving to the Upside, but Yellen Could Ruin it.At the opening of the market this week we were originally expecting further downside on GBPUSD if the 1.29150 Friday lows got taken out. Since the market opening however we have formed a clear double-bottom, almost to the pip, at the 1.2915 level. A strong area of support has now formed in this zone between 1.2915 to 1.294 over the last week or so. With today's US session sending price action over intra-day highs at 1.30050 and holding ground, it is likely that we may see higher pricing. FED Janet Yellen is giving her semi-annual testimony tomorrow and what she has to say may move the USD a lot so we will be waiting to see how this market looks after her testimony. If after her testimony price has broken out of this resistance bearing trend line and is holding above 1.30050 as support, we may consider scaling in to a long position with stops below 1.29150. Initial upside targets rest at 1.312, so we will only consider entering if it is still worth while after Yellen speaks. We will monitor price action and update this post if we take action. Good luck to you all!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn261897
FED YELLEN SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - USDJPY DXY SHORTSFed Yellen Speech: Yellen: Current Policy Should Help Economy Move Toward Goals Yellen: Welcome Development That More People Seeking Jobs, Unemployment Measures Steady Yellen: Household Spending Key Source Of Economic Growth Yellen: Fully Committed To Achieving 2% Inflation Objective Yellen: Recent Pickup In Growth, Labor Market Strengthen Case For Rate Increase Yellen: Decision Does Not Reflect Lack of Confidence in Economy Yellen: Chose to Wait for Further Evidence of Progress Toward Objectives Yellen: Cautious Approach to Paring Back Monetary Policy Support Is Appropriate Yellen: Expects Only Gradual Increases In Fed Funds Rate Yellen: Generally Pleased With How The U.S. Economy Is Doing Yellen: The Economy Has A Little More Room To Run Than Previously Thought Yellen: Expect Labor Market Conditions To Continue Strengthening Yellen: We Don't See The Economy As Overheating Now Yellen: Most Officials Judged Case for Immediate Increase 'Stronger,' But Sensible to Wait Yellen: Expects To See One Rate Increase This Year If Economy Stays On Course Yellen: 180k Jobs a Month is Faster Than Sustainable in the Longer Run Yellen: Don't Want to 'Significantly Overshoot' 2% Inflation Objective Yellen: Economy Has Shown More People Being Attracted Back Into Labor Force Yellen: Meeting Focused on Timing of Rate Increases Yellen: Less Disagreement Among FOMC Participants Than Speeches Suggest Yellen: Officials Struggling With 'What is the New Normal' DJ News Yellen: FOMC Not a Body That Suffers From 'Group Think' DJ News Yellen: FOMC Debating, Discussing Issues Related To Timing of Rate Increase Yellen: Partisan Politics Plays No Role in Our Decisions Yellen: We Do Not Discuss Politics At Our Meetings, Take Politics Into Account Yellen: Decision Not To Raise Rates Today Largely Based On Judgement Not Seeing Economy Overheating Yellen: Decision to Wait Based on Economic Factors, Not Political Yellen: November Is A Live Meeting, Will Assess Incoming Evidence Yellen: Highly Accommodative Policies Seem Necessary In Most Advanced Economies Yellen: Aware Of Financial Stability Risks Caused By Low Rates Yellen: Investment Spending Has Been Quite Weak For Some Time, Not Certain Of Causes Yellen: Not Aware Of Evidence Political Uncertainty Weakening Investment Spending Yellen: Concerns About Scope For Monetary Policy, Balance Sheet Large Yellen: 'Worthwhile' for Fiscal Policy Makers to Prepare for Future Economic Shocks YELLEN: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS INHERENTLY UNCERTAIN FED'S YELLEN: MONPOL NOT ON A PRESET COURSE FED'S YELLEN: CURRENT MONPOL STANCE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED "MODERATELY ACCOMMODATIVE" FED'S YELLEN: NEUTRAL FFR RATE QUITE LOW BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS FED'S YELLEN: LBR MKT SLACK BEING TAKEN UP AT SLOWER PACE, SOFT INFLATION, WE CHOSE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER EVIDENCE FED'S YELLEN: DECISION TO NOT HIKE NOT A REFLECTION OF LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY FED'S YELLEN: RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK ARE ROUGHLY BALANCED FED'S YELLEN NOTES INFLATION STILL SHORT OF OBJECTIVE GIVEN BASE EFFECTS FED'S YELLEN: LBR MKT CONDITIONS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER TIME FED'S YELLEN: MORE PEOPLE ARE SEEKING AND FINDING JOBS - A WELCOME DEVELOPMENT FED'S YELLEN: SLACK LITTLE CHANGED THIS YEAR FED'S YELLEN: BIZ INVESTMENT REMAINS SOFT FED'S YELLEN: GROWTH HAS PICKED UP DRIVEN BY HOUSEHOLD SPENDING FED'S YELLEN: CASE FOR HIKES HAS STRENGTHENED, BUT DECIDED TO WAIT FOR EVIDENCE OF FURTHER PROGRESS
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2