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USOIL. Five reasons to short oil 1. Expected USD raise after US GDP revision and Janet Yellen´s speach. 2. This is a W4 corrective wave from a 1-2-3-4-5 count, started by the beginning of the month. It hasn´t arrived yet to 78.60% retrace which is not normal for this kind of wave: normally, there are bigger retraces. 3. Downtrend respected: hasn´t broken the blue downtrend line, hasn´t broken the fork´s median line. Looks like a re-test and further retrace. 4. BB showing a retrace from the cloud top towards the basis which should be tested. 5. Last week USOIL crossed a weekly 88 MA and hasn´t re-tested it yet. Should be done by tomorrow or Monday Bonus: Brent futures (CB1) switch to a new contract on the 30th of August. Perfect moment for dumping the old contracts and bring monies to the new one. Outcome: will short CL1 tomorrow. Don´t want to short it now to avoid unnecessary risks overnight. Will open the trade manually but I expect the prices to be around 47.40 when this happens. SL: 49.10 TP: 44.60
TVC:USOILShort
by captain_smollett
9
EURUSD: IT'S ALL IN THE CHART - 1.10 AVG TO CONTINUE IN MED-RUN?EUR$: 1. The Greece Debt crisis induced an agGressive 3000pip+ sell-off in just 6m (-22%). As the crisis "resolved" EUR$ however failed to retrace any of its losses. - Instead EUR$ looked to adopt these new crisis lows as what has become a long-run trading range - the likely explanation would be that future FED/ ECB monpol divergence was priced "early", hence we have maintained the crissi lows. 2. Going forward this explains why EUR$ hasnt made more downside declines from 1.10 despite added Fed tightening and ECB easing - and could imply that we will remain tightly rangebound here (1.05-1.15) as future ECB/ FED monpol divergence is likely to taper off as ECB easing comes to an end, which will potentially off-set the inevitable added FED hikes. 3. Though my bias would still be lower from EUR$ as Fed hikes, and the steepness of their hike cycle is likely to become more aggressive, whereas the ECB easing fade off-set is arguably less of a bullish factor than hikes are a bearish factor. - HOWEVER, once again it is uncertain how much forward ECB/ FED monpol pricing has been done already in this 3000pip move lower, it could be that until fed funds reaches 2% (for example) that the divergence isnt enough to justify more than the 3000pip move lower that we have seen. It may take a much more aggressive steepening in monpol divergence between ECB/ FED (than what has been generally expected) to drive EUR$ to parity, the extent to which I do not know.. - Also the ECBs easing cycle, and whether it comes to the end (or is extended further) may possibly play a big role on the degree that this 1.10 equilibrium holds. ECB adding QE another 6m out to march 2017 and 240bn would only weigh in the bears favour, though once again the effect may be muted somewhat due to the above. Any questions or other ideas please comment below!
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
Dollar Remains Bullish Leading into Friday's NFPsOur pre-Jackson Hole note put into perspective the potential outcomes of both a dovish and hawkish tone from Fed speakers and the impact it would have on, then, current technicals. As expected, Fed Chair Yellen's speech lacked little inspiration. However, it was Vice Chair Fischer that provided the hawkish fireworks just as the dollar was grinding on support. Here is the note in its entirety, originally published 8.23.16: _______________________________________________ "U.S. Dollar At Key Support Heading into Jackson Hole" The U.S. dollar is modestly lower as the SPX hits an all-time high of 2,190 and a ripe valuation of 25.37x TTM – second highest valuation according to data going back to 1800 (yes, 216 years). (DXY daily chart) Technical position is moderately oversold with a z-score of -1.48 and an RSI of 44. Stochastics are suggesting a buy signal is close, but headline risk out of the Jackson Hole Symposium Thursday could sway traders. Price action is resting upon minor trend support created during the May-lows, and a confirmed break (close underneath support or resistance) below would cause the dollar index to trend lower within a lengthy demand zone. Traders could send the DXY to 92.50 on the low end. Conversely, a more uplifting and hawkish Janet Yellen could send it back to 95.35. (Chart of dollar and U.S. 2-year note performance) _______________________________________________ Here is a tweet we sent out showing the benefits of our bull case, which lined up with a dollar rebound on multi-year momentum support. twitter.com
TVC:DXY
by MacroView_Research
CBOE EQUITY OPTION VOLUME: 40% HIGHER FRIDAY & 1SD ABOVE 3M AVRGCBOE Equity Option Volume: 1. Total Equities Option volume now trades above all moving averages and is currently 1 deviation above the 3 month and 1 month average - we moved 40% higher on Friday post yellens hawkish Jackson Hole Speech, from 1700000 to 2500000. - Though we remain about 40-50% below the "risk-off" shift levels that we usually see in a firm bear market (Brexit and Yuan deval/ Feb sell off levels trade at 3700000) 2. This is important as increasing equity options is highly correlated with risk-off markets (as investors increasingly turn to derivs to hedge their long cash exposure) - watching closely for another 40% move higher, which is easily possible given Fridays move as this will likely signal the start of the september sell-off that I have been expecting. 3. Short SPX is my view on any rallies into 2180 this week - looking to double my position here. Questions, Comments and Likes encouraged!!
OShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
Strong rally from 100 - where can it reach? USDJPY had a nice run following Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole and my bullish trade that was entered near 100 is now up more than 200 pips. There were few reasons I chose to go long USDJPY last Friday: 1. Psychological level (100) 2. Weekly structure zone 3. Re-test of broken downtrend line (weekly) - Support 4. Re-test of the bottom of a trading channel (see green dashed lines). See video explaining the setup - goo.gl The 50 days MA line is the first target zone and the price is very close to reach it. It may create a small pullback that will perhaps allow another bullish entry near 100.5-101, but I think that the bullish run is far from over. Next target zones - Top of the trading channel and later the 200 days MA line. Tomer, The MarketZone Subscribe to my mailing lists - goo.gl Visit my Youtube Channel - www.youtube.com Follow my blog - marketzone.tumblr.com
Long
by themarketzone
DXY/ USD: THE WEEK AHEAD - ITS ALL IN THE CHARTDXY: 1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside. - Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be priced at least in the fron end (tuesday/weds) of next week. 2. The 1yr MA and then the 6m highs are the next targets higher at 96.5 and 97.5 - i feel the market can move to 96.5 based on the steepening of the fed funds curve (now implying 1 hike at close to 100% for 2016 vs 70/75% previoiusly) at the front of next week but then we will need a firm NFP beat to move to the next level higher at 97.5 or 6m highs. 3. Dollar index aside, gbpusd is my favourite expression of long USD aside from DXY - profit target of 1.300/5.
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
Double top or breakout courtesy of YellenGBPUSD is clearly set up for some nice action later today. Yellen can bring this back down and create a nice double top. Depending on how market reacts to her speech we could see a test of the upper channel and either see a break or a touch and drop. I'm leaning towards the later. RSI and stoch are lower PA is flat We are right at the upper level of the downward channel. Of course we just had fairly decent GBP figures so if market is relieved with what they hear (dovish speech) GBP might continue it's recovery and head towards levels we haven't see since the Brexit vote. If this happens I would wait for the breakout to settle and enter on correction and retest of broken upper channel. BUT, my personal bias is bearish.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn326052
DXY/ USD: FED LOCKHART, MESTER & BULLARD SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFed Lockhart Speech Highlights: Lockhart: Tepid Business Investment Plans Raise Questions About Growth Lockhart: Uncertainty A Real Factor For Economy Right Now Lockhart: Fed Rate Policy Will Be 'Cautious And Gradual' Lockhart: 'No Gun To Our Head' To Raise Rates Quickly Lockhart: Two Rate Rises Remain Possible, One Likely This Year Fed's Lockhart: There's Some 'Haze' Around Economic Outlook Lockhart: Doesn't See Major Bubble Risks Right Now Lockhart: Brexit Related Risks Seem To 'Have Settled Down' Lockhart: One Rate Rise This Year Likely 'Would Be Appropriate' Fed's Lockhart: 2Q GDP Data Misleading Read On Economy Fed Mester: Mester: Economy Should Pick Up Over Second Half Of Year Mester: Timing Isn't Key Issue For Rate Rises Mester: Gradual Upward Path For Rates Remains Appropriate Mester: Every Fed Meeting Is A Live Meeting Fed's Mester: Economy Is 'On A Good Track' Fed Bullard: Bullard: Fed Has 'Quite A Bit Of Firepower' Right Now If Needed Bullard: Negative Rates Not Likely For US Bullard: Fed Doing 'Pretty Well' On Its Job, Inflation Mandate Fed's Bullard: Dot Plot Not Telling Rate Story About Rate Outlook Bullard: What Fed Up Activists Seeking Is 'Kind Of Crazy' Bullard: Monetary Policy Has Been 'Doing Pretty Well' Bullard: Inflation Is Not Far From Fed's Target Bullard: Fed Hurting Credibility With Bad Guidance On Rates Bullard: Understands Financial Risks Could Get Away From Fed Bullard: Fed Will Need To Use Judgment On Bubble Issues Bullard: Fed Should Not Be On Cusp Of A Bunch Of Rate Hikes Bullard: Ideal For Fed To Raise Rates On Good News Fed's Bullard: 'Agnostic' About When Fed Should Raise Rates Bullard: Doesn't See Asset Bubbles Right Now
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUMGBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic confidence falsely increases (imo, given intelligent money understands near-term UK risks are to the upside). - GJ rising some 7 of the last 9 days, and now 400pips above the aug 16th lows of 129 at 133.3 I think there is at least that 400pips in downside available from here as the new equilibrium for several reasons: 1) Fed Yellen being hawkish looks like it may be the catalyst for the september US Equity sell-off, in which case, highly negatively correlated assets (e.g. safe havens yen, gold UST) are likely to pick the bids up, thus driving GBPJPY lower i.e. A tightening of financial conditions in the US will put pressure on US equities and also US election risk will transfer into Yen demand - also Brexit/ A50 risk is a medium term yen topside catalyst which makes sense owning through GBPJPY downside. 2) GBP shorts at these levels, given the monpol introduced by BOE, look like the smart move as the market is significantly higher than the monpol lows (which should be the new equilibrium). 3) Further BOJ action is made more unlikely by a hawkish Fed - hawkish fed looks to have provided $yen some topside support in the immediate term if nothing else, this eases pressure on the BOJ to ease - though a counter to this is the recent BOJ Inflation CPI traded some 30bps lower at 0.5% - the biggest drop since its inception (and the lowest level ever) this could be a push to more easing. However, the July Meeting misfire when expectations were perhaps at their highest and the current JGB drying liquidity situation somewhat capping the extent of further easing, I cant see the BOJ doing anything more than jawboning, as they have consistently continued to do (and about the only thing they have). Also for extra confidence, even if the BOJ was to ease - look at the past 2 times (Jan April), both policy measures provided 0 equilibrium relief to yen downside and infact fueled some 500pip+ topside to yen, so yen bulls imo can feel conforted that further easing is likely to have little impact, even more so as their ability to do more is ever reduced. 4) Technically, as mentioned weve been on a 2wk bull run so i feel GBP topside is due a rebalancing lower, and also the downside targets are not uncharted territory having traded at the 129 level on 2 previous occasions so the profit target isnt unreasonable. 5) I hear RM long-term short positioning, is picking up at these levels where sterling looks arguably overbrought. Trading Strategy - SHORT GBPJPY @133.3, add at 134 135 and 136 - TP 130.5 and 129 1. Short GBPJPY - Small at market price 133, and add ever 100pips higher if bulls continue up to 136 - the macro resistance levels on the daily are the 134 and 136 level. - Short small here at 133.3 and ADD as we move higher as short sterling given brexit/ monpol future and long yen given the risk-on bull run which is bound to run out given hiking and election risk intensifying imo is an all but guaranteed trade. Any questions on the trading strategy PLEASE ask!!
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTSYellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively selling off for the next 20-30minutes, before then making what looks to be now the decisive move higher, concluding the markets decision to view here statement as hawkish. One of the contradicting elements I found was her view on the near term possibilities, where in this statement, implied at the least that things arent as rosey as the market may think - "Fed Can Provide Accommodation Should Expansion Falter in Near Term" - a truly recovering economy wouldnt need this statement but maybe this is nit picking, but nonetheless could explain the lack of certainty that caused the USD sell-off initially. The USD 30D Fed Funds futures rallied to imply a P=30% chance of a September hike, up from 21% yday and one of the highest post-brexit readings, with equities look to have broken lower, whilst gold remains in bull territory, despite the USD appreciation implying what is expected to be the start of a broader medium term risk-off shift now. Given this fresh lease of life in USD STIR, attention will now closely focus on the USD employment report next friday, where if another 250k+ print comes in im sure we could see another 10pct addition to the september odds, if not more - especially if the unemp rate fell close to the feds terminal expectations of 4.8%. From a trading perspective, and the above information in mind, I remain long on USD vs GBP on rallies - 1.32 or 1.325 prices are the best to engage.. On hind sight some legacy longs should have been added in the post-Yellen vol to 1.328 but given the uncertain comments it is forgivable not to have added/ held here. Next weeks, UK PMIs will remain key for Sterlings hold above 1.30/29 level - a miss and we will likely test lows again, though a hit and sterling bulls will likely continue to be happy to own the pound here in the low 1.30s on the pretence that Carney will not e so forthcoming in future policy despite his aggressive dovish fwd gd. Also I am watching USDJPY - given US equities may pop on the back of this, short gbpjpy or usdjpy to own a risk off asset may prove to be a good call - especially at the 133 level for sterling. This also hedges the long usd exposure in the event data doesnt hold up. Yellen JH Speech highlights: -Fed's Yellen: Case for Increase in Fed Funds Rate Has Strengthened in Recent Months -Yellen: Growth Has Been Sufficient to Generate Further Improvement in Labor Market -Yellen: Economic Outlook Uncertain, Monetary Policy Not on Preset Course -Yellen: Economy Continues to Expand, Led by Solid Growth in Household Spending -Yellen: Range Of Reasonably Likely Outcomes For Fed Funds Rate 'Quite Wide' -Yellen: U.S. Economy Nearing Fed's Goals Of Maximum Employment, Price Stability -Yellen: FOMC Continues to Anticipate Gradual Increases in Fed Funds Rate Will be Appropriate Over Time -Yellen: Even If Average Rates Remain Lower Than In Past, Monetary Policy Will Be Able To Respond Effectively Under Most Conditions -Yellen: Fed Studying Many Issues Related To Policy Implementation
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
Sticking To Dax Bull CaseYesterday's candle was actually bullish. Long-legged candles signal reversals, even if the intraday selloff may have suggested otherwise. The key message: breakout levels ~10490 were tested (violated), but held. Index is off to a fresh swing higher, which could target 10860 (late December high) and 10981 (cycle fibo level). With that in mind, yesterday's mini reversal in Gold, and GBP strengthening vs. USD, are short-term technicals suggesting we are getting a dovish Yellen at JH?
TVC:DEU40Long
by gorillacharts
USD/ DXY: GDP PRINT IS PIVOTAL FOR MEDIUM-TERM SENTIMENTUSD/ DXY: 1. In the past, 7/9 days DXY has lost a considerable amount, from 97 to 94 as US data, starting with a big GDP miss, has continued to be poor across the board with all but employment not hitting the target. 2. Fed Minutes of July that we saw this week reaffirmed the need for firmer data before any rate hike will happen with several members wanting to be more confident that underlying inflation is actually growing and the whole group said they deemed data being in-line is vital for a future hike - despite some members wanting to hike soon. 3. This data dependency clause leaves the USD in a medium-term trap, especially given election year and US equitites are unlikely to give much support through september. Future direction: 1. Durables/ GDP - Imo the direction of the USD up until the Fed meeting in september will be decided by the data we see next week - if Durables and GDP miss the already low expectations US Fed funds will sell-off from their already low 3.5bps/ p14% of pricing and drag the USD lower with it - to 90 at least. 2. Fed Chair Yellen - Many are citing fed Yellens speech next week as a key risk event for the USD however past providing some bif support for the USD, theres not much more she can say that hasnt already been said several times last week by other hawkish Fed members that has already been priced. - In order for her to provide any level of last DXY support she would have to say for example - "I am hiking in september" or otherwise commit to moving the rate higher - though this is unlikely at probably less than 1/100. - Thus the risk in fact are actually skewed to the downside for the USD/ DXY, given Yellens usual neutral stance at best, and inability to jawbone the DXY higher for long regardless of whats said; thus there is a higher probability that she is actually dovish - given the recent data spat, an unbiased chair would mention the poor recent data (which other feds have avoided like the plague and instead only commented on the labor market which is doing well). Though on the data front it must be argued that there is a skew to the upside given the bar is set so low at 1.2% - a level pretty hard to miss, though given the inflation, PPI and retail sales data, if there ever was going to be a miss it would be now (durables the day before may indicate the key, a big miss there and GDP will likely follow). Trading strategy - Short USD vs NZD or AUD; Buying USD on dips vs GBP or JPY to hedge: 1. Given the downside bias already visible in DXY (and the ever looming US election risk), and the technical confirmations of medium-term selling is being backed up with me hearing that USD longs as a consensus trade has faded with insto's and HY/ carry currencies now the target (EM or AUD/NZD) - it makes sense to want to be a seller of USD vs buying kiwi and aussie on dips, especially given their employment report/ monpol outlook is bullish and not much other information is due out for the antipodes in the next 2wks so little should stand in their way. - Though Fed Yellen speaks towards the start of the week so any USD strength is likely to come then, so it is best to wait for her to speak before adding longs - also the most important GDP/ Durables data isnt until thu/fri so in actual fact I will remain on the sideline until friday afternoon to place any trades as if USD data is good it is likely to firm USD somewhat given the amount of room selling has given us to move higher without prejudice. 2. Also I suggest adding GBPUSD shorts on rallies into 1.315-32 and USDJPY shorts into 101 on USD weakness as this trade never goes too far wrong and can hedge can short USD exposure you may have, plus the $Yen short provides risk-off shift coverge which is likely to happen in the next few weeks and take us to 96/4 anyway .
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
XAUUSD : Review on Various Bull Possiblities.Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call. Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier chance to push down as much as possible it can. Probably 1250-1211 would be bears targeting for. On current Daily Chart I see huge range play from 1300-1330 for next whole week and I believe this the last bear week and will make perfect Bull Flag on weekly. We have bottomed the STOCH and RSI hover around 48-50 on daily. So Huge Sideways possible within range till 27 July, Yellen still might not give green signal to rate hikes in august as statisticians or Economists would treat previous two NFP data as Anomaolies and would wait for more evidence on job reports. Dovish stand likely to induce rally in all PM and would again try to target previous tops and 1375-1390 Region. I have charted all bull possiblites, if not anyone of those being played, God help the bulls !! because it will dive down so hard that even bear has not imagine. Good Luck for Next Week Happy Trading.
FX:XAUUSD
by robus
1
Financials will benefit if the reflation theme continuesRelated to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June. BKX Index (candles) BKX / SPX (blue) US10Y (grey) What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that the BKX index traded within 1% of the 2007 - 2009 61.8% retracement level last July, before bottoming at the 38.2% retracement level in February this year. Since then, yields have continued to fall (grey), but the relative performance of banks versus the S&P 500 (blue) has held firmer and failed to make new lows. Assuming the reflation theme transpires, banks represent a compelling value play and remain an uncrowded US equity play. Now trading below the $70 level, technically the banks are in the lower half of the last 12 month's trading range and provide a decent payoff in the run up to $80 (61.8% level) with a stop-on-close (weekly) below $57 (38.2%). For further insight and discussion please contact me via Tradingview or LinkedIn , on Twitter @James_LVDTA, and visit www.lexvandam.com to become a member of our Trading Club.
BLong
by JamesHelliwell