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SP500 : HS Pattern Confirmed. Target 1810 Been Watching this sell setup for long time and the right shoulder appeared in very timely manner. I believe we may see some bounce back but eventually we will see trigger to breakout neckline. We may hopefully test February 2016 lows 1810. I believe there are lot of fundamentals in favor for this sell off and the Macros are getting battered with economic mismanagement. US might not hike IR forwarding BREXIT as reason. Coming 3-4 months we might see huge volatility due to currency wars and we just might start new recessive cycle by end of 2016.
TVC:SPXShort
by robus
GNW - recovering fortune 500 giant, turnaround play of the yearGNW recovery play, Long at 3.08 as of 6/14/2016, target 6.50 or more by this time next year. GNW was hit by horrible guidance and earnings the previous year and is just starting to recover since the last earnings early May. It has stopped the bleeding in its LTC unit and is poised to make a turnaround. Rate hikes should help GNW as well. 82% of stock float is held by institutions and mutual funds, and multiple firms have been picking up position in the stock the last quarter. The current tradable float is small and will be very volatile on low volume. I'm long Jan 2017- 5 strike calls. Looking for 5 by September
NYSE:GNWLong
by profprof
GOLD: Profit Taken On Short-Term PostionGold hit a near four week high early Monday, supported by weaker Asian stocks as investors turned towards safe haven-assets ahead of this week's central bank meetings and Britain's June 23 referendum on its European Union membership. We took profit on our long position at 1280.00. We stay bullish in the long term. It is a sign of the caution that permeates the global economic outlook when four of the world's top central banks, all due to meet within days of each other, are almost unanimously expected to make no change to their extraordinary stimulus programs. While the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan are all dealing with varying amounts or shortages of inflation, none are expected to act ahead of one of the biggest risk events of 2016. Britain's referendum on whether to remain in or leave the European Union has been creeping from the back to the front of investors' minds. During the last full week of campaigning before the June 23 vote, it may dominate most discussion. Janet Yellen's Fed has spent most of the past month or so dropping hints that a summer rate hike was on the way. However, disappointing May hiring data and a UK vote that is too close in the polls to have confidence in the outcome have toned down her message, making a rate rise on June 15 now highly unlikely. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to 893.92 tonnes on Friday, the highest since October 2013. Speculators raised their net long position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to June 7, and cut their bullish stance in silver, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. Our long-term target is 1335.00. We have locked in profit at 1245.00 Sign up to forex, precious metals newsletter growthaces.com and start profiting from our trading signals.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GrowthAces
XAUUSD : Long and Short PossiblitiesAddendum to previous chart. 1281- 1285 provides huge supply. Break of rising wedge can lead gold towards around 0.5 fib 1235 retrace. Dovish News can provide more strength to pull gold towards 1300 region. We can see huge commercial short covering if retrace do not happen and this might fuel bull run even more. IR hike can trigger fall towards 1150. If not then bounce towards channel top. We may see huge manipulation Pre and Post FOMC. Trade Carefully. Good Luck Wish you all Million Dollar
FX:XAUUSD
by robus
1
Gold Eases On Dollar Recovery, But We Stay Long• Gold eased from three-week highs today as a recovery in the USD prompted some buyers to cash in gains after the previous day's sharp rally, though the outlook for Fed interest rates offered support. • The metal surged 1.5% on Wednesday after below-consensus US payrolls data and dovish comments from Janet Yellen dampened expectations of an imminent rate hike. • Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. • Investors have almost priced out the chance of a rate increase at the Fed Reserve's June 14-15 policy review and reduced the likelihood of a July increase to about 26% • We stay XAUUSD long for 1280.00 Sign up to trading newsletter growthaces.com and start profiting from our trading signals.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GrowthAces
1
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending: The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure. The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over. In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend) The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining). We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur. MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur. If you would like to know more about MacroView's products and services, please feel free to message us. As always, comment and post charts. We love to talk markets!
TVC:DXY
by MacroView_Research
1
S&P | Easy moves for mid term and interesting panoramaAnyone would thing those erratic moves from October 2015, August 2015 and January 2016 were just flash crashes and yeah they were but all of them respected supports so... Are this bearish moves controlled? Yes, they are. Seems like market is correcting all the upside movements by now and we are in a slow bearish trend with a long term resistance and a horizontal support (that has been broken multiple times but w/ a candle close on it) and a bearish support. Does this mean we wont crash back to 2008 pre-crash levels? No. Any crash starts from a correction and a broken support, so we can asume that if SPX500 closes below 1820 in a daily candle/weekly candle this one could go for the bearish support and even break it starting the crash economy cycle. What to spect? In long term we could expect as soon as we dont break in weekly candles the bearish resistance a fall back to 1820 and if it breaks that support, a continuation to the bearish support. If it doesnt break it we will stay in the same panorama as we currently are but with a weak index as we broke one of it's supports. if breaks both expect a big fall. In mid term (Term that I really like to play on this index). We could expect a bounce back to 2090 levels or a fall back to 1820. It's that simple, short 2090, long 1820. In short term we have a bearish channel. If it breaks upwards we will go straight to 2090 as mentioned in the mid term. If we break it downside it will go (slowly or fast) to 1820. By now we could set the first horizontal support around 2020 and the 2000 level.
FX:SPX500
by UnknownUnicorn129775
GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Keeping bullish viewTalking Points: GBPUSD Technical Strategy: Keeping Bearish view Elliottwave Count: ZigZag Correction will be our primary choice in count GBPUSD Start showing divergence on daily bearish trenline and 240min newly created bullish trendline. Current level 1.4650-1.4700 is 100% expansion of zigzag and also testing horizontal resistance. Long term trend is down and don't see any reason to see bullish count but consider upward move from 1.3850 to 1.4750 is a pair of zigzag correction.
Short
by Hoag
[AUDUSD] Long with the overall trendWhat do i really like in this trade? First of all i am taking this trade with the overall direction of the trend (Bullish), i have a nice Risk/Reward potential as you can see, i can even go for more but i dont like being greedy. Also i have price action confirmation in different time frames, like the 4hr and 6hr. but i am taking this trade in a 8hr time frame, because i really like the higher time frames. According to price action what i see here is a bearish preceding trend (not my favorite) and then an indecision candle, followed by some confirmation that price might be changing from hands to the bulls, i was not able to take this trade at the high of the indecision candle, so i entered at a slightly pull back at a better price, which gave me a better risk/reward potential. As always i keep my minimum Risk/Reward 1:2 that way i only need to be right on 40% of my trades in order to be profitable. Trading Details: Time Frame: 8hr Entry: Slighlty above the high of the indecision candle. Stop loss: A few pips below the low of the Indecision Candle Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 Account Risk: 2%
Long
by daldertg
Unapologetically BearishA series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low probability of happening. Needless to say, critics (unfortunately those that “manage” money) have come out to chastise the recession call, which is not backed up hard data but backed subjectively by a rally in equity prices. They repeat the mantra “don't fight the Fed.” Unfortunately, we've already witnessed the carnage bred from the same ignorant complacency as equity markets halve themselves twice in less than 15 years. Secondarily, last Friday, I watched Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, in conjunction with CNBC reporter Steve Liesman, say that the data depicting the sad state of economic affairs was wrong and that we should simply follow the non-farm payroll numbers. Whoa! This is a classic case of narrative over fact. But, lets look at key economic data points that have already hit cycle highs and rolled over: Key Data Point Post-Great Recession Peak, YoY % Non-Farm Payrolls First Quarter, 2015 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Third Quarter, 2015 Real Consumption First Quarter, 2015 Agg. Private Sector Wages & Income Fourth Quarter, 2014 Retail Sales and Food Servicess Third Quarter, 2011 Business Sales Second Quarter, 2010 Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio First Quarter, 2016 (Cycle High) ISM Manufacturing PMI Fourth Quarter, 2009 Additionally, all is not well in the corporate sector. Last month, market participants saw corporate profits drop 8.4%, nearly 3x more than expected and the third quarter in a row. Furthermore, profits for all of 2015 fell 5.1 percent - the largest drop since 2008. This is much higher then the .6 percent decline the year before. Mainstream economists don't forecast a looming recession, but when have they ever? Every recession since the early 1980's began with growth above one percent. In 2007, growth expansion was at 1.87 percent, only .13 percent lower than it was in 2015. When one steps back from market nuances and models for potential of all risks, not only does the picture become more clearer but the ability to adjust when needed becomes more simpler. In " SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the Course ," I pointed out the lackluster conviction of the equity rally. This still remains the case. Those that "don't fight the Fed" will be sorely disappointed when the only volume swarms in on the elevator drop. Notice that price action and accumulation on SPY hit a wall and appears to be pealing back: In April 2015, I issued a 2016 recession call between Q2-Q3 for the U.S. (following my January call for 1,810 on the SPX). After being laughed at, I wonder who will have the last laugh as Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is modeling a mere .4% (with a potential to go negative) for Q1. At 22.87x trailing 12-months earnings, equities remains extremely expensive and only have been at these levels prior to market crashes, including the market panic of 1893/96, flash crash of 1962, early 1990's recession, the Dot Com bubble and the Great Recession. Do you feel lucky? .... I remain unapologetically bearish. Reiterating my 1,546 SPX target for 2017. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytr
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
8
Nasdaq, what the FAQ?When is this rally short covering rally going to end? It already has. It's just bounced off monthly resistance. But besides this, how do you know it's the end of the rally? Surely the there must be more than one technical indicator? Well you're right. A crossover of the MACD and a break below the upward trending support would confirm this rally is over plus a dip below important MAs such as the 200 period. What about the fundamentals? Isn't China and Euro free money investors buying up US stocks? Well, this has probably contributed to the recent rally. Though if you're reading about it in the papers, the spending spree is most likely over. They aren't about to advertise their intentions and then act on it at a premium. I'd say Euro investors are going to be looking at Euro stocks as a priority. The US produced an excellent job report IMO but PE ratios but other economic data is poor meaning PE ratios are probably too high. I'd say Yellen will raise rates this Summer unless her mandate has shifted to propping up stocks instead of reducing unemployment. Is the market in a bubble? Yes, absolutely. Cheap money, QE has created excessive risk taking and ridiculous valuations. Id say we should be looking at a minimum 25% drop until the end of the 2017. Once the oil companies begin to close, that's when the poo will really hit the fan. I recommend reducing exposure to stocks. China is still very problematic and so is the Euro zone Yellen even is worried. One way or another, something's gotta give and the equity rally doing so well in a period of concern is suspicious. Either rates rise and the market falls, or PE ratios fall, or growth falls, or earnings drop off. Either way, it can't continue much longer.
FX:NAS100Short
by maccabean