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The relationship between the unemployment rate and stock marketA few notes about this chart. The orange line is the unemployment rate. Black resistance lines are at the top. 1. There seems to be two drops of the unemployment rate before the market falls. This could be due to expectations in interest rate increases. 2. Assuming the unemployment rate falls another two times, the market will drop off sometime in may/june/july 3. You can't see it in the chart, but this unemployment looks historically to be very low and approaching full employment. 4. At the end of the last term of a president, the unemployment rate increases. 5. Once the unemployment rises, the stock market will (obviously) drop. One the stock market drops, unemployment will rise (one of the two). I tend to believe the latter will happen first. 6. Once the stock market drops, and unemployment start to increase, the fed should lower interest rates again. However this time, it can't because it can't lower it much further, this means that the next market fall and unemployment rate will be much larger and possibly may lead to a depression..... ie. sorry, America, you're screwed.
SP:SPXShort
by maccabean
3
1st analysis for the new Financial Year ahead!!Hi All !!! As you know (if we have spoken) I am about to start my new trading year. ready to (hopefully) achieve my targets of 25% profits per month (although this may not always happens!) consistency and discipline is important in trading and even more if you are a home trader with a small capital. But Punctuality is even more important!! be there where you have to be in time means that you wont miss opportunities. and to be punctual you need to have done your homework! which is precisely what I have done this weekend (3 days before new year starts!!! yayy) Now is time to plan out for the new year so the 1st analysis is ready and although I am a bit rusty! (been only following news quite far...) I am pretty happy with this one. so... we have a more or less clear up trending channel and the idea is to trade it until it breaks. Simple! I will be watching for reversal candles within the top and bottom of this channel, I will also be watching for ruptures of this channel and how strong this happens. so, stay with me (if you want!) and lets discuss the picture of the #EURUSD $EURUSD over the next year!
by SolidSnake
GBP/USD High Impact News Week PreviewUS news dominates this week and therefore waiting for how price reacts at key levels is key to success. At present price has rejected new lows and is hinting at a retracement which will likely be to the 50% fib level. With that said a continuation of the downward trend cannot be ruled out with Yellen due to speak Tuesday afternoon and Carney Wednesday morning, both events more then likely to influence price action. As with most non farm weeks price is likely to consolidate around a key price level pending the Friday release, this will likely be the 50% fib level. A break above or below this level has been outlined, this pair is looking for direction with the Brexit decision looming and the possibility of higher US interest rates and paralysis of the BOE due to Brexit all making for an interesting mix of risk factors for investors. Trading around breaks of key levels is likely to yield the best results, use news releases to your advantage and wait for clear direction from price action before deciding on a bias as this pair is likely to be temperamental this week,
by Elliot_Myers
EUR/USD Yellen Speech PreviewAs it's a non farm week markets will historically trade sideways pending the release of Friday. The weekly close below the 61.80% fib indicates further downside gains with a rest of the 200EMA and 50% fib likely. At this point it's likely price will break or correct at the 50% fib level towards the 76.4% or 38.2% fib levels where it will likely consolidate until Friday. The news docket features several high impact US releases however on non farm weeks other news tends to have small-medium impact on price action so do expect breakouts on news releases followed by retracement(s) to the previous levels. A farm rolls preview will follow on Thursday when a clearer picture of market sentiment is available.
by Elliot_Myers
2
The Dollar Paradox Pt. 1: Unintended ConsequencesIt is clear that the U.S. dollar has been one of the biggest hedge fund crowded trades, and still remains despite recent pullbacks in the greenback. And, although, the DXY saw a violent decent following last week's dovish FOMC-minutes report, there is still an underlying dynamic that supports a much higher dollar. History may not repeat, but it often rhymes. And, those who look back into historical context for potential clues of today should find interest in the "Law of Unintended Consequences." This concept dates back to John Locke, who discussed the unintended consequences of interest rate regulation in his letter to Sir John Somers, Member of Parliament during the 17th century. In 1936, socialogist Robert K. Merton wrote "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purpose Social Action," which discussed unintended consequences of deliberate acts intended to cause social change. We don't have to look any further to globalized manipulation of interest rates by central banks with the sole purpose to deliberately change actions (or inaction) of consumers. Low interest rates have been designed to force those into riskier assets who may not have accumulated previously. The suppression has also "enticed" individuals to buy homes, cars, take on student loans and other interest rate sensitive loans to unsustainable levels, essentially robbing tomorrow's growth to consume today. Furthermore, market participants are underestimating the ongoing global currency debasement on the race to zero. Since the financial crisis - on a global scale - there has been $12.3 trillion (and growing) in quantitative easing and 650-plus (and growing) rate cute. Yet, central banks are unwilling to admit their policies have failed. And they won't. In Merton's paper, he stated that ignorance stems from unintended consequences. Those that are objective ponder why economists are consistently wrong and never forecast recessions (Fed included). There is a degree of ignorance that shields them off from from anticipating the potential from future events, thus this leaves their analysis incomplete. Moreover, short-term interests are clearly overtaking long-term interests. As former Dallas Fed Reserve Bank President Dick Fisher has stated on TV numerous times, the Federal Reserve front-loaded risk appetite in order to develop a "wealth effect." Instead of focusing on longer-term solutions for the growth of American, it was imperative for the Fed to spoon feed quantitative easing to investment banks and their crony peers. The hubristic nature of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi or Haruhiko Kuroda in believing they can manipulate "free" markets like a volume dial on a radio is foolhardy and create unintended consequences that will cause a panic buying of the global reserve currency, the U.S. dollar. Stay tuned for additional Dollar Paradox additions. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
TVC:DXY
by CommoditiesTrader
6
Long On EUR/USD BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for -Daily we have Had a nice up move now we have had a to a key level at 1.0000 -Also we have had 3 Dojis in a row -Showing obvious Rejection from our key area at 1.0000 -On the lower time frame on the four hour we have had a rejection of a keyFIB level 0.618 level -Also shown a rejection from 1.09500 which is in line with our Fib level and also a strong level for EURUSD -On the weekly we can clearly see we have been stuck in a box range for some time now -And perhaps its time for it to break and finally move higher ? -Essentially we are making Lower highs -We have also bounced of Key trend line which has been in place for many years 2 months ago so this could be the push the EUR needs altho this is a long term view :) I Believe we are ready to go long on a major trend upwards :)
Long
by ARFXC
16
Gold to $8,000?Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned economies. Recently, Pierre Lassonde said that gold could have the potential to reach $8,000 per ounce when looking at the gold-to-Dow ratio. He mentions how tangible assets tend to regain parity after previous bull-markets, and the potential for his forecast is supported if the gold-to-Dow ratio his .5 while expressing that the quick and expansive adaptation of NIRP will fuel the fire. As central banks continue to ease ($12.3 trillion in quantitative easing and 650 rate cuts since the financial crisis), there is a potential for a prolonged bull market in gold. As I noted in "Demand for Gold Rockets Higher ," if the renewed momentum were to match nominal gains investors seen between 2009-2011, spot prices would near $2,230 - which is not $8,000 but very respectable. The 1.61 Fib. extension from the current multi-year low and the 2011 high is $2,460. In " Gold Looks Promising Long Term ," I posted last February that the longer-term outlook for the yellow metal remains in tact. Price action continued to trend in the descending channel until it bottomed in December. What strengthens the cased for renewed optimism is that price action convincingly broke out of the descending channel and back above the 2003 trend line. In " Gold to Retest $1,130 as Dollar Strengthens ," I pointed out last March that the dollar strengthening is trouble and the velocity of such would be meaningful. As we've seen throughout last year, U.S. multinationals have been crushed due to the strength in the DXY, I also pointed out the descending wedge on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern. After finding support where I thought the last line of defense was before $1,000 oz., gold rallied hard and broke out. However, even through wedges are strong indicators of price reversals, the real test is that price tends to quickly retest the broken resistance. If that hold, it could be off to the races. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
HUGE SELL OFF SELL SELL SELL !!! (ECB NEWS)So as most of you already know it is March The 10Th Which is the date where The ECB come out and speak about Monetary easing, Inflation and Rate cut What am i expecting ? Well as a mainly technical trader it is in my job description as a full time trader to look at Both technical and fundamental in the market. After heavy research into the Fundamental side of things i Believe They will launch a round of Monetary easing or Deploy a Rate cut Why do i think this ? Well Firstly We all have to look at the bigger picture how is the economy doing ? Not so good Top two economies are declining (US and Chinese) In regards to the EUROZONE it is looking even worse especially as many of the countries in the EU need bailouts and are suffering from current economic situations E.G. Greece Italy Ireland All of which are in the euro and are in great trouble Anyways many Investors predict a huge sell of for the Euro as many believe they may be willing to bring out the big News and expand its aggressive quantitative-easing program, introduce a two-tiered deposit system and offer cheap loans to banks. If so then expect a huge decline in the Euros currency as There is a huge imbalance in the Euro at the moment The question why are the ECB doing this well they are taking any drastic measurer to boost eurozone economy and like the ECB boss, Mario Draghi who said the central bank was “ready to do its part” to boost growth and inflation. Fading growth and inflation prospects will force the European Central Bank to review its policy stance And make a change to hellp its growth which of course is its main problem inflation prospects have turned for the worse, raising a credibility issue for a bank that has undershot inflation for three straight years. Which is a big worry So when you put all these factors in based of Fundamentals what does it mean well really nothing until draghi comes out and says it himself and launches Monetary easing or Rate cut's But if they do decide to go ahead with it expect a huge sell of :) For all EURO pairs What do i See based on Technicals ? Well a good thing that supports the sell of is we are below a key level of 1.1000 which is also a nice round number physiological Levels ;) Also after the big rally In February we have almost completely corrected ourself which many traders didn't believe would happen as many thought we would break the consolidation zone we have been stuck in after such a nice bullish move But once again with the EUR/USD price is undecided We seem to be bounce of our key level which also helps in a bias to the downside Anyways This is my view on the EurUsd trade safe guys News is very unpredictable expect the worse and i hope i didnt bore you to much lol Thanks for reading happy trading lets make some pips !
Short
by ARFXC
34
Short On AUD/USD SELL SELL SELL !!!Reasons for -Firstly on the four hour we are in a area of congestion and sideways -We are making lower high -we have bounced of major long term trend line on the four hour with a Bearish candle -Previous candle was a doji -Also we created a corrective structure to the upside and we have broken it -So we are ready for the next impulse move to the downside -Not only Price action is bearish but also wave patterns are showing bearishness these two together a deadly combo! -We are also trading on the 0.5 FIB level on the lower timeframes Daily -On the daily we are bearish in terms of trend (We are down trending) -This recent move up could be a correction before we see anymore bearish movement and building up steam for a big move down -On the daily we rejected the 0.618 FIB level which shows us the retrace or correction may be over and ready for some bearish movement again -Of course the lower highs are more seeable on the daily (clear down trend) -Also on the daily we got a tweezer top a sign of reversal :) On the weekly -Once again we are down trending the trend is your friend -The past two weeks have been DOJIS on the weekly now we are at a strong trend line maybe time to get bearish candle ? to signify the down move -On the weekly we are getting lower lows which is great but this is more of a long term view Overall im bearish across three time frames i do believe we need to go lower if we do want to see any bullish movemnt if it does come but thats for the future at the moment i believe AUDUSD next level will be 0.7000 Then possibly lower but for now 0.7000 is in sight after we had the Last impulse and corrective structure i think its time for a big bearish move All we can do is wait and see :) My entry 0.70904 1-3% Risk Per trade Trade safe all the best :) If you liked this analysis and Setup Follow and give thumbs up Also id love to hear what you guys think of the setup :) Wishing everyone a great trading Week :)
Short
by ARFXC
8
Short On GBP/USD SELL SELL SELL !!! Reasons for -On the four hour we have been testing that upper trend line for some time now and price simply aint breaking it -Also we are putting in Lower Highs A sign of change of trend and a reversal -We also have broken our Wedge to the downside which confirms bearish momentum -We have also Held at the 0.618 Fib levels numerous times from the highs high on the up move Therefore i believe the 4 hour timeframe is bearish Daily -On the daily we are clearly in a long term down trend -There alot of wicks to the upside shows more selling pressure -This pull up can be seen as a small correction -After todays candle which is shaping up to close as a bearish engulfing if so A bearish reversal sign -Also price closes bearish it would have engulfed almost 4 days worth of price action -Fridays candle was a doji so this signifies indecision so price putting in a Bearish engulfing gives us the signal that we are going Bears again -We also trading at a key level of 1.45000 that has stalled price and show RES Therefore i believe the Daily is bearish Weekly -Firstly last weeks candle was a doji on our key level of 1.45000 -Yes i no we are only 2 Days into the week (Tuesday) But if this week carries on being bearish we could be looking at a long term selling setup But we will wait for that to happen -We are clearly down trending on the weekly The trend is your friend ;) -So the bullish movement we've had over the past two weeks could be a simple correction before another move down and create another Leg down -Also we are near all time lows so perhaps we are going to test that again before anymore bullish movement (LongTerm) Therefore i am bearish on the weekly too My Entry : 1.44350 3 Timeframes all bearish :) Only 1-3% of account proper risk management Trade safe If you liked this analysis and Setup Follow and give thumbs up Also id love to hear what you guys think of the setup :) Wishing everyone a great trading Week :)
Short
by ARFXC
30
Long On EUR/USD BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for -After huge move and break out of box range a week ago price has risen and become very bullish -Therefore i believe it will continue to rise till 1.15000 -To confirm is bullish strength it has made higher highs -And higher lows -Creating a structure -Also on the four hour we can see a long bearish wick to a downside which shows more buyers then sellers -Then the next candle after that is a strong bullish candle to confirm the bullish momentum -We also broke our key level to the upside 1.1000 so it adds to the bullish setup If we go to the daily We are clearly making higher highs and long term is very bullish after we broke the key level alot of people have anticipated 1.11500 for a long time and now the dollar is weak this would be the perfect time altho im already long from 2Pm for a news setup i had and currently in nice profit id advise people to go long now as it would be the perfect time Trade safe only risk 1-3% per trade :)
Long
by ARFXC
25
Short On AUD/USD SELL SELL SELL !!!(Change of heart after break)Reasons for -We have broken our 4 Hour trend line to the downside -Therefore we have broken structure and i 100% believe that after the break we are headed down -We are going to get a impulse wave and this is a strong setup - after all the long term trend is bearish ! Yes weve had two small losses but we are going to make it back on this one ;) Also this is an aggressive entry you may want to wait for the pull back :) On the daily we have put in a bearish engulfing also the previous daily candle was huge bearish candle ! on the daily we can also price making Higher lows ! so we are headed down now i believe My entry 0.70430
Short
by ARFXC
15
Gold Trends Near Resistance After Consecutive Session GainsCurrently, gold is budding up against intraday resistance, following two consecutive sessions of gains on a weaker dollar. As the rate hike came and went, many – even those who ushered in the hike with excitement – are beginning to wonder if the Federal Reserve waited far too long to boost interest rates. The yellow metal had began its two-day rally by finding bidders on the weekly support level of $1,046. Even though gold has seen nice gains following the FOMC, the paradigm has been to sell rallies despite whether or not it fundamentally makes sense. According to the Commitment of Traders data, large speculators are the most short gold ever. This could cause for a disastrous 2016 for hedge funds if fundamentals for owning gold improve, as we have already seen what happen when crowded trades unravel in the euro. On the four-hour chart, gold is hovering just under $1,080 and the 200-4H EMA, which will act as dynamic resistance until a confirmed breakout occurs. Price action is trading at the upper-end of a symmetrical triangle, while a minor descending support within the pattern is found (dotted line). Within the pattern, support is found at $1,074 and $1,066, while a confirmed breakout could signal a move higher to $1,088 and $1,095, potentially $1,111, per ounce. If gold prices do see selling pressure and close beneath trend support, weekly support levels will remain key. $1,000 and $955 are technical targets. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
5
Whats to come for EURUSD?Well.. doesnt need much explenation still we are all trying to work out the implications of FED/ECB relationship and their monetary policy but one thing seems like the USD is not giving up! making terrain across the majors today after the announcement could still TOO EARLY to call it and I am SOO! looking forward to hear from the CTF report next to see how orders and contracts performed over the FED announcement week but seems like USD long order owners dont really want to give up upon their positions yet. we havent really seen any new positionament in the USDx so I guess this is because they still digesting and wondering what to do. the LONG term picture still bearish bias as I am not expecting a break over 1,12 anytime soon after we retested the 1,1011-60 area over the past few days and it was empty of bids around there... still we could see a reversal... either because ECB becomes more hawkish (sudently) or because USD long positions get trimmed off and some earnings are taken before Xmas. too soon to call it but it will deffinetly be interesting!
by SolidSnake
Precious Metals Jump Ahead of FOMCPrecious metals jump higher ahead of today’s FOMC minutes and potentially the first rate hike in the U.S. since 2007. Why? It’s most likely contributed to the fact that the majority of market participants believe Fed Chair Janet Yellen will remain extremely dovish post-rate increase. A dovish hike may be a hard sell , as Nomura suggests, but precious metals may have already priced in a specific rate trajectory. The U.S. dollar carry trade is the most crowded trade and by significant margins, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey of Global Fund Managers. If Yellen choreographs a dovish hike, the dollar trade could begin to unwind causing relief in battered commodities; and gold and silver will benefit. Gold has been trading in a range, and price action is forming a small, symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The results of the FOMC, and surrounding rhetoric, will pave the way for the yellow metal. If there is a more hawkish tone, gold could trade lower to $1,035, while a more dovish tone may send gold to restest resistance at $1,194/97. Silver is a little tricky because it is more tied in with economic growth than monetary policy. The beaten down commodity will see relief if the dollar bulls take some off the table, but poor economic data may still be a hindered to silver. If inflation were to pick up, consider that bullish for silver. If commodities can get a boost, expect silver to trade higher to $14.52 with the potential of $15.30 (highly dependent on the outcome of the dollar). Conversely, selling pressure could cause silver to test significant support levels at $13.12. Please follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
1
Potential Opportunities to Monitor for FOMC!With the last major news event of the year 2015 later tonight - FOMC FED Rate Decision, we decided to share with you guys as a bonus what we have for our FXP Clients as well. We did a special day analysis for you guys to watch out for potential trade opportunities. Having said that, do take note of the volatility the market will experience during the release and conference meeting. Importantly, trade according to your risk profile and ensure you are aware of the risk involved. For traders who are new to the market, we strongly recommend you to simply stay away from the market but DO MONITOR how such event can move the market. Attached are the signals for this week. Simply click HERE to download this week Trade Plan Signals. Visit HERE for the technical analysis of the signals. The password is 2015bonus We believe that many traders/investors have priced in this coming FED Rate Hike decision. A lower than 25 basis points hike would disappoint the market. A dovish tone from Yellen would also see dollar weakening. Trade according to your risk management profile! Cheers, Kar Yong
by KarYong
2