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Uranium - Is it getting ready for yet another rally? Over the past two years, the uranium sector has been experiencing a deficit on the supply side which led to a surge of more than 300% in the price of Global X Uranium ETF. The situation was even further exacerbated when in January 2022 Kazakhstan, world's largest producer, saw civil unrest spreading across the country. We foresee the deficit in the uranium market to be persistent throughout the whole year 2022 which we expect to have a positive impact on the price of this yellow metal. Recently, URA ETF saw bullish developments taking place on the daily time frame which possibly sets it for another rally. Top ten biggest producers of uranium by country (2020): 1. Kazakhstan = 19 477 tonnes (approximately 41% of world supply) 2. Australia = 6 203 tonnes 3. Namibia = 5 413 tonnes 4. Canada = 3 885 tonnes 5. Uzbekistan = 3 500 tonnes 6. Niger = 2 991 tonnes 7. Russia = 2 846 tonnes 8. China = 1 885 tonnes 9. Ukraine = 744 tonnes 10. India = 400 tonnes Meanwhile, the U.S. produced only 6 tonnes of uranium in 2020 which leaves it heavily dependent on foreign producers. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is very bullish. MACD is bullish, though it still remains in the bearish territory. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover recently. However, ADX contains low value which suggests no trend is currently present in URA. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.01 Picture above depicts the daily chart of the URA ETF. It also shows resistance at slope. We will observe price action closely and we will look whether it manages to break above the resistance. If breakout occurs, then we expect such a phenomenon to strongly bolster the bullish case for the URA ETF. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI continues to develop bearish structure. However, it already reversed which is bullish. We will watch whether it will manage to break its bearish structure. MACD is bearish but it shows first signs of flattening. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish territory, however, it points to the upside at the moment. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX suggests a lack of prevailing trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish but signals very weak or no trend at all. Support and resistance Major resistance lies at 31.60 USD. Short-term resistance sits at 23.26 USD. Resistance 1 is at 26.37 USD and Resistance 2 at 28.72 USD. Resistance 3 is at 29.77 USD. Short-term support sits at 21.72 USD. Support 2 can be found at 17.23 USD. Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
AMEX:URALong
by Tradersweekly
4
Gold still in neutral bias, Upside-downside both risks remain Gold prices are dominated mainly by the USD, geopolitical factors, bank rates, economic crisis, inflation, bond yields, and FED monetary policy. Last FOMC was a bit hawkish than dovish. That helped the USD to gain against the gold prices. But at the U.S season, 10 years bond dropped a bit. As a result, gold has recovered nearly $20 from last week's low. However, gold price consolidates almost psychological and minor trendline resistance level of $1800. If the bond market slides today, gold may again go up and test the nearly $1805 price zone. Two reasons are playing behind the gold's drop. Powells hawkish statement Central bank's rate-hiking cycle. We know if central banks raise bank rates, that negatively impacts gold and bitcoin prices because both don't pay any overnight interest as currency does through swaps. FED hints they will hike bank rates in March, and every rate decision date is possible to hike though they didn't fix it four times this year. And the bank of England is expecting to rise 25BP rates this week. These two factors are all other fundamental issues favoring gold to go upside. Covid situation, Russia-Ukraine crisis, United Arab Emirate-Houthis crisis still exist even though higher inflation is another supportive factor that could help gold rise again. From my experience, I have seen many times, when the inflation is too high, the central bank's rate-hiking can't stop gold buying bias from the investors. I hope this time we also will see that the gold price rises during the rate hike cycle. So considering every circumstance, I still think as long as gold is above the $1770 price zone, it could test the $1846/1850 price zone again. But before it goes up again, it needs to break and stabilize above the $1805 price zone. Technical Analysis From the present rate, immediate resistance is $1800. Breaking above $1800 will open the door for an $1805 price zone. If the gold price stabilizes above $1805, it may drop to nearly $1780 (Trendline Support) again. But if the gold price manages to break above $1805, the next target is $1828 and finally $1846/1850 price zone. On the other hand, if the central bank's rate-hiking cycle impacts gold negatively, gold may break below the $1770 price zone. Breaking below $1770 will open the door for the $1750 price zone. Breaking below $1750, the next target is $1725, and the final target to the downside is $1680/1685 price zone.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD is still in positive mode.Several reasons are playing behind the rising of gold prices. The main catalysts for rising gold prices are omicron concerns, geopolitical factors, stock crashes, and downbeat yields. Today, we have seen the Asian stock market slip and yields drop. But, on the other hand, a Russian attack on Ukraine is a growing risk. This week we have federal open market committee meeting minutes. The market is expecting a hawkish statement. If the FED delivers a hawkish statement, this may only stop the bias of rising gold. Otherwise, I don't see any other fundamental factors that can stop the bias of rising gold prices. Technically gold is also in an uptrend. Last time the strongest support was the $1828/1830 zone price. And the gold price is still holding above the support zone. But in the daily chart, gold is hovering below the trendline resistance. So, it is a bit hard to decide where to buy the gold in this place or wait for more confirmation. There is no doubt that fundamentally gold is still in mode, but technical analysis says we should wait for more confirmation. Gold Daily Chart We can buy at the zone if we find gold near the support zone, like the $1830 price zone. For example, in the H1 chart, trendline support identifies the $1830/1815 price zone. So, if we can buy from the particular price zone, we can make some pips. I always recommend trading in a higher timeframe. The higher timeframe we will use, the better result we will get. The H1 chart shows that $1815 is the last support. And breaking below $1815 may change the trend. But if you see the H4 or Daily chart, we find that $1800 is major support. So as long as gold prices are above $1800, it will still be uptrend. That's why I always suggest seeing and trading in daily or H4 charts. The H1 chart is forming another bullish flag, breaking above $1843/1848. We will get the confirmation. So, if we buy at $1843, our first target will be $1848. As $1848 is a trendline resistance zone and strong resistance level. So, we should wait till the market breakout. Then, if the gold price breaks above the $1848/1850, we must continue our buy trade, and our second target should be at the $1858/1860 price zone. And final target to the upside is the $1875 price zone.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
Gold stuck in trendline resistance, What is next? Gold reached its trendline resistance zone. As a result, the gold reached its highest level at $1848 for two months. Next, the FED will announce their monetary policy, and I think gold will rise slowly until the FED meeting. There is a big chance that the FED will rise in March and four times this year. That may bit hampered the pace of rising gold as gold is a good hedge against inflation; from this aspect, gold is still safe and the number one safe-haven asset to the investors during global growth and crisis. Geopolitical tensions in the West also formed an additional factor supporting gold prices, as skirmishes intensified between Russia and the United States of America after US President Biden indicated that he expected Moscow to move towards Ukraine after it mobilized 100,000 soldiers near the borders of Ukraine, for the Biden administration to announce about $200 million. Additional defense military aid to Ukraine. Overall, I am still in buy mode in gold, but as gold reaches its trendline resistance level, I am waiting for some downward correction or breaking above the trendline resistance. Technical analysis: Based on the current price, $1848/1856 is the trendline resistance zone. So, I will suggest not to buy in the particular price zone. After breaking above $1856, our first upside target is the $1870/1875 price zone. However, $1870/1875 is a high swing area tested in November 2021. So, the market may take some time to break above the $1875 price zone. Finally, after breaking above $1875, my last target is the $1900/1910 price zone. On the other hand, as gold is hovering below the trendline resistance, it is very common that gold may drop from this level for correction and profit-taking purposes. So, if gold drops from this level, it may test the $1830/1828 price zone. Breaking below $1828, it can test the $1823 price zone. However, I am not expecting more than that about this week. So, something doesn't happen unexpectedly, and I don't think gold will change its uptrend very soon.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
Gold weekly analysis: The USD in under pressureThe dollar has posted its worst weekly performance in five months as it closes out the week. China's gross domestic product (GDP) is higher than expected is at the top of all of the other happenings this week. We will be keeping an eye on various data points throughout the week. It was the largest weekly loss in the general index of the US dollar since August of last year when it closed the trading session on Friday, the 14th of January, at levels of 95.14, after testing its lowest level in two months at 94.60 midweek, as the US dollar ignored all the news that supports the speed with which the US Federal Reserve is tightening policy. Because of his monetary policy, which includes raising US interest rates more quickly during the current year and raising expectations that what will raise interest rates four times during the current year rather than three times as previously expected, interest rates are expected to be submitted four times during the current year. At the beginning of the week, statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced these expectations, as Powell stated in his testimony before Congress that the US Federal Reserve must raise interest rates quickly to counteract the effects of accelerating inflation. According to the most recent figures, the consumer price index in the United States of America increased at an annual rate of 7 percent in December, compared to 6.8 percent in the previous reading, in line with expectations for the fastest rate of inflation growth in 40 years. In November, the consumer price index increased at an annual rate of 6.8 percent, compared to 6.8 percent in the previous reading. The dollar did not benefit in any way from all of this, and despite the positive news that dominated most of last week's sessions for the US dollar, the dollar continued to decline sharply. However, I believe this can be explained by the beginning of the year and the construction of new centers, especially given the high expectations of pricing an opportunity greater than 90 percent. Moreover, according to the FedWatch CME Group tool, what will raise the interest rate in March, and it will be presented a total of four times during the current calendar year, starting in March. One of the most recent data released last week was the December retail sales data from the United States, which came in below expectations and disappointed as sales fell by 1.9 percent in December, raising concerns about the economy and rising inflationary pressures on consumers spending. Aas fundamentally the USD is under pressure, so the gold still has chances to go upside in the coming days. Check out the H4 chart to better understand. What is it that the markets are looking forward to this week? Several important economic reports are expected to be released during the sessions of the current week, and the markets are anticipating them. We began the day with data from China's growth and retail sales, which were released during the Asian session, as well as minutes from the Central Bank of Japan's meeting, inflation data from Canada and the United Kingdom, labor market data from Australia and the United Kingdom, and manufacturing data from the United States of America. Data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics in the Asian session today, Monday, showed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4 percent in the fourth and last quarter of 2021, exceeding expectations of growth of approximately 3.7 percent. On the other hand, retail sales fell short of expectations, with annual sales growth slowing to 1.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in November and expectations of 3.8 percent in December. On the other hand, industrial production increased by approximately 4.3 percent in December, compared to a growth of 3.8 percent in November, exceeding expectations of a gain of 3.7 percent, while the rate of investment in fixed assets increased by approximately 4.9 percent. The Bank of Japan is featured prominently on the front page. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its monetary policy tomorrow, Tuesday, during the Asian session, with expectations indicating that the Bank of Japan will maintain its monetary policy and interest rates at -0.10 percent. The sharp rise in the value of the Japanese yen over the past week may explain why the Bank of Japan has hinted that it may impose strict measures shortly, particularly in light of the rise in inflation in Japan, which is in line with the global trend. On the other hand, Japanese bond yields saw significant increases last week, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level in more than a year on concerns that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy shortly. We will keep an eye on various data points throughout the week. Today, Monday will be a trading holiday in the United States observant of Martin Luther King Day. At the same time, manufacturing sales and the Bank of Canada survey of business outlook will be released from Canada in the late afternoon and evening. During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy, while during the European trading session, we will be looking at data from the British labor market, the ZEW index from Germany, and the Eurozone, and during the American trading session, we will be looking at the Empire Estate manufacturing index from the United States of America. Thursday's economic calendar includes inflation data from the United Kingdom in the European period and Canada in the American session and statements from Bank of England governor Mark Carney at the end of the American session. On Wednesday, inflation data will be released in European and American sessions. What will monitor Thursday's labor market data from Australia (unemployment rate and change in employment) in the Asian session? At the same time, the European region will release the final inflation reading in the European period - in the American session, the Philadelphia manufacturing index, weekly unemployment benefits, and home sales will be removed, among other things. The final session of the week is on Friday. The Bank of Japan meeting minutes will be released during the Asian session, and we will be keeping an eye on retail sales in the United Kingdom and Canada during the European and American sessions, respectively.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
Gold Weekly Analysis: It's all about inflation this weekThe US labor market report was one of the most important economic reports last week. IN DECEMBER, the US economy added only 199k jobs where the market forecast was 426K. The unexpected and negative news about the employment data caused fears that the US economy slowed down. At the same time, rates came out saying that Unemployment and wage rates are better than expectations, but markets reacted to this information with poor liquidity. The employment figures, in general, are not too negative, especially if we think that they come at the end of the year. Even though December's numbers were alarming, we should note that this is because of the Corona epidemic, which the United States of America recorded a few months ago. Gold Market Mover Data For The Week Fed Chair Powell Testifies CPI m/m Core CPI m/m 10-y Bond Auction PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Unemployment Claims 30-y Bond Auction Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Even with this data in mind, it would still be premature to say that job growth has stopped or slowed since December 2021. If job growth continues at its current pace- which seems possible given how vital things seem recent- coverage for the first half of 2022 could quickly occur by late January or early February 2022. The labor market index, or the number two indicator of importance to the US Federal Reserve, is expected to release its monthly report next Wednesday. The inflation index will occupy the number one spot on this list because the US Federal Reserve has changed its monetary policy and tendency towards a more stringent approach. Expectations are that CPI will drop in December at a monthly pace of 0.4% from 0.8%, while Core CPI is also expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. This news could impact stock prices and the gold market as investors expect it would match or exceed expectations- making it an important event for financial markets this week. The market is pricing in an opportunity of more than 80%, according to FedWatch's CME Group tool, with a rate hike in March and four rate hikes this year. This has already been priced in the markets as of this writing. Still, expectations are now rising that US interest rates may increase by four times this year compared to three expectations (in The latest estimates from the US Federal Reserve). These higher numbers will support other movements within the markets. If FED hints at four rate hikes this year in their monetary policy, GOld may not go up as we expected. Rate hiking mostly depends on inflation reports. If the inflation rises as expected, the FED will think to hike their rates. As a result, gold will drop. But if we see another drop in inflation, FED may not hike four times their bank rates this year. So, keep in touch with inflation reports. The markets will also monitor the latest updates of the Omicron variable and the extent of countries' response to confronting the spread, especially after recording record levels in the speed of space and rising cases of anxiety. The US dollar index is trading at 95.90 this morning, with opening prices being higher by about 0.17% since last week's close, as global stocks and gold prices continue to rise following a surge in returns seen over the previous week. If the omicron concerns increase, there is no doubt that gold will test $1865 and the next $1900+. Technical View Gold is forming a triangle. The channel resistance is identified at the $1820 price zone from the present rates and channel support at the $1780 price zone. So, as long as the market holds between channel support and channel resistance, the gold is not changing its long-term trends. Gold was trying to break below the channel support zone several times, but it didn't happen. So gold pulls back after making a fake break out from the support trendline. In the H4 chart, gold price testing 200 SMA, breaking above 200 SMA, our text target to the upside is $1815/125 price zone. Breaking above $1820/1825, we need inflation reports. On the other hand, if the CPI report prints positive this week, gold may fall below trendline support and test the $1780 price zone. For breaking below $1780, we need another Hawkish statement from FED or Powell like last week and any hints that the FED will hike rates four times this year.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
Gold Weekly Analysis: Buying Pressure Persists (November:15-19)Gold prices have been on an impressive run the past few months, climbing from $1,540 at the beginning of September to a high just shy of $1,867 last week. However, that might be about all people who will get out if higher inflation numbers and geopolitical tensions continue weighing heavily into risk sentiment. It has seen increased expectations for rate hikes in America stimulate demand for precious metals over time despite their reputation as hedges against economic uncertainty or currency devaluation. This situation has brought fundamentals back into focus as risk sentiment for precious metals evolves in 2017-2018; we can't predict what will happen next, but it seems like things are getting interesting. It is expected gold has chances to test above $1900 or more. W hat happened last week? The 10-year US Treasury bond yield broke below 1.5% last week and lost more than 3%. It allowed gold to push higher at the start of the previous week. The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee Members were split over whether to raise interest rates this year or wait until next year. It caused a lot of turmoil within currencies around these parts - which have shown signs lately saying it may be time for economic stimulus again after everything calmed down during QE3 following Lehman Brothers' collapse. What About The Next Week? October's Retail Sales data will be released on Tuesday, and it's possible we could see a weaker-than-expected print which would revive concerns over inflation impacting consumer activity negatively. However, an upbeat reading may help risk flows return to markets limiting XAU/USD's upside movement. But gold, as long as above $1800, will be considered as an uptrend market. So, any downside correction may be the chance of buying opportunities. There are not so much market-moving data to be released in the next week. So, investors and traders will care about inflations, 0-year US Treasury bond yield moves, Retail sales reports, and any comments from FOMC policymakers. I think these four factors are enough to understand the gold market from the view of fundamental analysis. Technical View: Technically gold is in an uptrend, and there is no doubt. But gold stuck below the resistance level of $1875. So either we should buy gold after breaking above $1875 or after downward correction nearly $1850 price zone. H4 Chart From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the $1850 price zone. The next significant support shows the $1835/1830 price zone. I don't think next week's data are enough to break below the $1830 price zone unless any unexpected things happen. On the other hand, immediate resistance is identified at the %1870/1875 price zone from the present rate. Breaking above the $1875 price zone will open the door for the $1900/1910 price zone. I expect the market will ring next week between the $1875 to $ 1830 price zone if the retail sales report prints positive or the $1875 to 1900 price zone if the retail sales report comes negative.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
Gold Sell Target Still Valid As Long as Below 1800.00 Price ZoneFrom the present rate, immediate resistance is identifying at the 1800.00 price zone and immediate support is identifying at the 1760 price zone. we should wait between the 1800 and 1760 price zone. There is no doubt trend is down, but in this current situation, the market is expecting an upward correction. but this week market is unable to break above 1800.00 immediate resistance. So, if we see a market break and stability above the 1800.00 price zone, we may go for short term buy till 1840.00 price zone. On the other hand, if market break and stable below the 1760.00 price zone, we will go for a long term sell target till the 1680.00 price zone.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Gold_Trading_Expert
XAU/USD Might Be Smashed By Sellers 🔨 🔨 🔨 💡 Trade Idea 📉 Sell Limit XAU/USD @ 1825.05 🎯 Target Profit 1799.44 🛑 Stop Loss 1837.78 ❌ Do not risk more than 1 % of your account on each trade 🙂 Good Luck ! Description: The price is trading within a wedge formation in a “wave 4” as per Elliott Wave Theory. A higher correction might be expected and then a move downward to the 1799.44 mark. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please press “Like” if you appreciate the trading idea 👍 “Follow” for more trading ideas in the future 👀 “Comment” below to share your thoughts with us and other traders 👥 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Risk Disclaimer: All trading ideas published by “collegeofpips” are for educational purposes only. These posts can help you to enhance your trading skills, but please do your own research before opening any trading position. ⚠️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CollegeofPips
4
GOLD UPDATE AFTER UNEXPECTED DROP LEVELS((GOLD UPDATE )) MONTHLY TIME FRAME: pullback TO 50 % fibo level and formation of bullish engulfing candle . WEEKLY TIME FRAME : formation of higher low above strong support level (1845) after pullback. DAILY TIME FRAME : reaching the 0.61 fibo level ( MA 200) as a pullback after breaking daily down trend with good rejection above the strong support level (1845) . H4 TIME FRAME : good rejection of bearish candle with formation of good hanging man bullish candle at level 1845. i think next weeks will see more bullish movement with expectation of 3 targets: TP1 AT 1960 LEVEL TP2 AT 2000 LEVEL TP3 AT 2075 LEVEL GOODLUCK TRADE SAFE
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOCUSFOREX_TRADERS_FFT