Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Optimal Options StrikesI. Introduction
Options on futures offer traders a flexible way to participate in market movements while managing risk effectively. The Japanese Yen Futures (6J) market provides deep liquidity, making it a preferred instrument for options traders. In this article, we will explore how to optimize Bull Call Spreads in Yen Futures (6J) by understanding price equivalency and strike selection.
One of the most critical aspects of trading options on futures is recognizing that continuous futures charts and contract-specific charts display different prices. This discrepancy must be accounted for when setting up trade entries and exits. Additionally, strike price selection significantly impacts the reward-to-risk ratio, breakeven price, and probability of profitability.
By identifying key support and resistance levels (UFO), we will define trade setups that likely align with market structure, targeting precise entry and exit points. We will also compare different Bull Call Spread variations to understand how adjusting the strike selection impacts risk and potential reward.
II. Understanding the Japanese Yen Futures Contract
Before diving into the options strategy, it is essential to understand the specifications of the CME-traded Japanese Yen Futures (6J) contract:
Contract Size: Each futures contract represents 12,500,000 Japanese Yen
Tick Size: 0.0000005 USD per JPY (equivalent to $6.25 per tick)
Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading cycle with short maintenance breaks
Margin Requirements: Currently $2,900 (varies through time).
For this article, we focus on December 2025 Yen Futures (6JZ2025). Since the market price displayed on continuous charts (6J1!) differs from contract-specific charts, we need to establish price equivalencies to align our trade analysis.
III. Price Equivalency Between Continuous and Contract-Specific Futures
Futures traders commonly use continuous charts (such as 6J1!) for analysis, but when trading options, it is crucial to reference the specific futures contract month (such as 6JZ2025). Due to roll adjustments and term structure variations, prices differ between these two charts.
In this setup, we identify key UFO-based support and resistance levels and adjust for contract-specific price equivalency:
Support Level Equivalency: 0.0066325 (6J1!) = 0.0068220 (6JZ2025)
Resistance Level Equivalency: 0.0069875 (6J1!) = 0.0072250 (6JZ2025)
These adjusted price levels ensure that the trade is structured accurately within the December 2025 contract, aligning option strikes with meaningful technical levels.
IV. The Bull Call Spread Strategy on Yen Futures
A Bull Call Spread is a vertical options spread strategy used to express a bullish outlook while reducing cost and limiting risk. This strategy involves:
Buying a lower-strike call (gaining upside exposure)
Selling a higher-strike call (reducing cost in exchange for capping maximum profit)
This setup provides a defined risk-reward structure and is particularly useful when targeting predefined resistance levels. Given that we identified 0.0068220 as support and 0.0072250 as resistance, we will structure multiple Bull Call Spreads to compare strike selection impact.
Now that the trade structure is established, let’s explore how different strike selections affect risk, reward, and breakeven prices.
V. Strike Selection and Its Impact on Risk-Reward Ratios
Selecting the appropriate strike prices is crucial when structuring a Bull Call Spread, as it directly affects the breakeven price, maximum risk, and maximum reward. To illustrate this, we compare three different Bull Call Spread variations using December 2025 Yen Futures (6JZ2025).
1. 0.00680/0.00720 Bull Call Spread
Breakeven: 0.006930
Maximum Risk: -0.00013
Maximum Reward: +0.00027
2. 0.00680/0.00750 Bull Call Spread
Breakeven: 0.0069789
Maximum Risk: -0.00018
Maximum Reward: +0.00052
3. 0.00680/0.00700 Bull Call Spread
Breakeven: 0.006879
Maximum Risk: -0.00008
Maximum Reward: +0.00012
Observing these variations, key insights emerge. The 0.00680/0.00750 spread offers the highest potential reward but comes with the highest breakeven and greater risk. Meanwhile, the 0.00680/0.00700 spread minimizes risk but provides a lower profit potential. Strike selection, therefore, becomes a balance between profitability potential and probability of success.
A wider spread (such as 0.00680/0.00750) has a higher reward-to-risk ratio, but it requires the price to move further before generating profits. Conversely, a narrower spread (like 0.00680/0.00700) has a lower breakeven price, increasing the probability of profitability but limiting potential upside.
VI. Trade Plan for a Bull Call Spread
Based on the analysis of strike selection, a balanced trade plan can be structured using the 0.00680/0.00720 Bull Call Spread, which offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio while maintaining a reasonable breakeven price.
Market Bias: Bullish, expecting a move toward resistance
Selected Strikes: Long 0.00680 call, short 0.00720 call
Breakeven Price: 0.006930
Target Exit Price: 0.0072250
Maximum Risk: -0.00013
Maximum Reward: +0.00027
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.08:1
This setup capitalizes on the previously identified UFO support to define the entry point, while the UFO resistance provides a target for exit. The breakeven price remains at a reasonable level, ensuring a greater probability of the spread moving into profitability.
VII. Risk Management Considerations
While the Bull Call Spread limits risk compared to outright long calls, proper risk management is still necessary. Traders should consider the following:
Using Stop-Loss Orders: If price breaks below the UFO support level at 0.0068220, traders may exit the position early to avoid excessive losses.
Hedging with Puts: If volatility spikes or market sentiment shifts, a put option or put spread can serve as a hedge against adverse movements.
Position Sizing: Adjusting contract size ensures that total exposure remains within acceptable risk limits based on account size.
Time Decay Considerations: Since time decay negatively impacts long call options, traders should monitor the spread's profitability as expiration approaches and adjust positions accordingly.
By implementing these risk management techniques, traders can optimize their Bull Call Spread strategy while mitigating unnecessary exposure.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Yen
USDJPY - Potential upside from here?USD/JPY is currently consolidating within a range after a sharp downtrend from the 159.00 level. The price has established support around 148.50-149.00, forming a clear pattern. We're now waiting for a decisive break above the current consolidation area, which would signal renewed bullish momentum.
Once we see this breakout, expect a minor retracement to retest the broken resistance as new support – this will be our key buying opportunity. With the descending trendline already broken and the forecast indicating potential upside to the 154.00 area, traders should focus on buy positions following this retracement, with stops below the support zone.
Buy the Yen!If you've been following my content, you'll know I've been long the yen since the start of 2025. My short AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, NOKJPY, and NZDJPY positions are starting to pay off!
The yen index ( TVC:JXY ) recently closed above a key horizontal resistance at 66.00. This may signal the JPY may continue to strengthen and test the weekly range resistance at 71.00.
OANDA:AUDJPY
OANDA:CADJPY
OANDA:EURJPY
OANDA:GBPJPY
OANDA:NZDJPY
OANDA:USDJPY
US $ YEN BOTTOMING NOW SHARP RALLY BULLISH FOR SPY QQQThe chart is my work in the US/YEN I have NOT ALTER the Wave structure . We will now see a BOTTOM on the short term here or a minor new low .From here we should see a rather nice RALLY up in an ABC to .382 /.50% of this decline .This is friendly for the SPY and QQQ . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
USDJPY - 4H Short Opportunities Amid DowntrendFollowing the sharp fall in FX:USDJPY after PPI and CPI news, we expect further downside, potentially reaching the middle or bottom of the channel. 📉
Each push-up could be a short entry opportunity. Even a strong rise below 158 might be a dead cat bounce and a better short entry point. Stay cautious and strategic! 🔻
USD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per DollarUSD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per Dollar
As the USD/JPY chart shows:
→ Yesterday, the pair fell below the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar.
→ However, today it staged a strong recovery, rising back above this level.
The yen weakened following the release of Japan's inflation data. According to Forex Factory, the National Core CPI increased by 3.2% year-over-year (forecast: 3.1%, previous: 3.0%).
According to Reuters:
→ The 19-month high in CPI strengthens expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan.
→ The yen is weakening as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank may step up government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise.
Can USD/JPY Continue to Rise?
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On 12th February, we noted that key highs and lows over the past three months formed an ascending channel, with the 154 yen per dollar level acting as a resistance barrier.
Indeed, since then, bulls have failed to sustain levels above 154 yen per dollar (as indicated by the arrow), leading to a decline below the lower boundary of the blue channel after a brief rebound on 18th February.
As a result, the former support at the lower boundary of the blue channel may now act as resistance around 151.3 yen per dollar, reinforcing the relevance of the descending channel (marked in red).
The trajectory of USD/JPY today could be significantly influenced by the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI indices at 16:45 GMT+2.
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USD/JPY H4 | Heading into pullback resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 150.60 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 151.50 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 148.84 which is a swing-low support.
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Why Morgan Stanley and MUFG back JPY? Morgan Stanley and MUFG both see the Japanese yen as the strongest G10 currency in 2025. They expect it to gain value as U.S. interest rates fall and Japan’s central bank raises its own.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY oscillators are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance could to the downside.
MUFG predicts further yen gains, especially against the euro, and has set a target of 150 for EUR/JPY, down from 157.
Morgan Stanley also favors the Australian dollar. Meanwhile they believe the New Zealand dollar will appreciate but underperform the Australian dollar due to a weaker domestic outlook.
USD/JPY H1 | Heading into overlap resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 152.13 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 152.54 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 151.36 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDJPY - Retesting the lowThe USD/JPY currency pair has shown a significant downward trend since mid-January 2025, falling from peaks around 158.50 to current levels near 151.77. The price action has been characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, with notable resistance forming around the 156.00 level during late January and early February.
The technical analysis suggests further bearish momentum, with a red arrow indicating a potential continuation of the downward movement toward the 150.89 support level. This bearish outlook is reinforced by the pair's inability to maintain gains above 155.00 in recent trading sessions, and the current price structure shows limited signs of reversal potential in the near term.
Yen Dips After Strong Japan GDP DataThe Japanese yen slipped to around 151.8 per dollar, reversing a three-day rally as the dollar gained strength after Fed officials signaled reluctance to cut rates due to inflation concerns.
Japan’s Q4 GDP grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.4% and beating the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.8%, aligning with expectations and improving from 1.7% in Q3. These figures support a more hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan, though uncertainty remains over a potential rate hike in March, with further increases expected later this year.
Technically, resistance is at 154.90, with further levels at 156.00 and 157.00. Support stands at 151.25, followed by 149.20 and 147.10.
CHFJPY - Continuation to the downside?Looking at the CHF/JPY currency pair, the price action shows a clear downward trend since late January 2025, with consistently lower highs and lower lows. The recent bounce from the 166.00 area appears to be a corrective move rather than a trend reversal, suggesting a higher probability of continued downside momentum.
However, traders should exercise caution as price approaches the marked blue box zone around 167.00-167.50. This area could act as a support level and potentially trigger a temporary bounce or consolidation. Still, given the overall bearish structure, any rebounds from this zone might present new opportunities for short positions, provided proper risk management is implemented.
USD/JPY H4 | Rising into resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 152.42 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 153.10 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Take profit is at 151.23 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
CADJPY - Correction and up? Looking at the CADJPY daily chart, we can observe a potential corrective pattern forming. The price action has been showing signs of consolidation near the marked blue box support zone around the 105.00 level. If the price respects this support area without breaking below it, and we see a strong bullish reaction, this could set up an interesting opportunity. The key observation here is that any significant bounce from this zone could trigger a broader upside move.
Should we see such a reaction materialize, the pair might gain enough momentum to challenge and potentially break above the November 2024 high, which sits around the 111.50 level. This scenario would be particularly compelling if we see clear rejection of prices above the blue box support, formation of bullish price action patterns at current levels, and strong momentum on the initial bounce. However, traders should remain cautious and wait for clear confirmation of the bullish reversal before considering long positions, as the current downward momentum would need to be definitively broken first.
Yen Rallies as Trump Delays TariffsThe Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Friday, following a 1% gain in the previous session. The yen strengthened as the dollar retreated sharply after President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns over escalating trade tensions. The latest US PPI report also hinted that core PCE inflation, the Fed’s key metric due later this month, could come in lower than expected.
Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that Japan would respond appropriately to any US reciprocal tariffs, while the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance continued to support the yen. Although uncertainty remains about a potential rate hike in March, the central bank is widely expected to introduce further increases later this year.
Technically, 154.90 is the key resistance level, with further targets at 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the pair moves lower.
USDD/JPY bulls eye 156A hot set of inflation figures from the US alongside risk-on outflows from then yen helped USD/JPY post its best daily gain of the year. While the daily chart shows Wednesday's high stalled at trend resistance, but the strong bullish trend on the 1-hour chart suggests its more likely we'll see an upside break of it than not.
The 50-day SMA at 155.22 makes a potential interim target for bulls, a break above which brings the monthly pivot point near the 156 handle into focus.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
USDJPY - Trendline reached, watching the FVGThe price has recently reached and reacted to a significant descending trendline that has been acting as resistance since mid-January 2025. The current interaction with this trendline around 154.00 is particularly noteworthy as it coincides with a short-term pullback.
Below the current price action, there's a Fair Value Gap (FVG) marked by the orange box approximately at the 153.00 level. This FVG represents an inefficiency in price that often tends to get filled. Should the price pull back to this zone, it could present an interesting long opportunity for traders for several reasons:
1) The FVG zone could act as support, as these areas often attract price action
2) The pullback would allow for a better risk-reward ratio for potential longs
3) The recent upward momentum from the early February lows suggests underlying strength
For traders considering long positions, the FVG zone would be the key area to watch for potential entries.
AUDJPY - Deeper pullback or retesting strong support?These are the 2 scenarios that I see for AUDJPY on the 4h timeframe.
Scenario 1 - Deeper Pullback and Continuation:
In this scenario, the price could initially drop further from current levels around 96.24, potentially reaching the 95.50 area, forming a deeper pullback. This move would shake out some weak longs and create a stronger base for the next move up. After this deeper correction, the pair could find strong buying interest and initiate a significant bounce, potentially targeting the recent highs around 98.50-99.00. This scenario would align with the overall consolidation pattern we've seen in recent months.
Scenario 2 - Orange Box Retest:
The alternative scenario shows price moving down to retest the orange box support zone around 94.00. This would represent a more bearish development, as it would mean breaking below the recent swing lows. The orange box appears to be a significant support area, and reaching this level could trigger one of two responses: either a strong bounce from this major support zone, or if the support breaks, it could lead to a more substantial decline. The reaction at this zone would be crucial for determining the pair's medium-term direction.
Both scenarios suggest some downside in the near term, with the key difference being the depth of the pullback and the subsequent reaction at these lower levels.