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USD/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounceUSD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 144.29 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 141.53 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 150.86 which is a pullback resistance that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Gold vs. Yen Carry Trade: A Shifting Paradigm For years, the yen carry trade has been a cornerstone of many investment portfolios. This strategy involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as US Treasuries. However, a confluence of factors is making gold, represented by the XAU/USD pair, an increasingly attractive alternative. The Yen Carry Trade Under Pressure The yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, fueled by Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over its allure. • Rising Interest Rates: Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have embarked on a tightening cycle to combat inflation. This has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, reducing the potential profit from the carry trade. • Yen Strength: The Japanese yen has shown unexpected resilience, countering the traditional trend of yen weakness. This is partly due to safe-haven flows as investors seek refuge from global economic uncertainties. • Geopolitical Risks: Increased geopolitical tensions can disrupt carry trades. A sudden shift in risk appetite can lead to rapid yen appreciation, erasing potential gains and incurring significant losses. The Allure of Gold In contrast, gold has emerged as a compelling investment option. • Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical risks. As global economic conditions become increasingly volatile, investors may seek the security of gold. • Inflation Hedge: With inflation concerns persisting, gold has historically been seen as an effective inflation hedge. As the price of goods and services rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive store of value. • Diversification Benefits: Gold can help diversify an investment portfolio. Its low correlation with traditional asset classes can reduce overall portfolio risk. • Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been net buyers of gold in recent years, supporting its price. This ongoing demand can provide a bullish undercurrent for the gold market. XAU/USD: A Closer Look The XAU/USD pair, representing the price of gold in US dollars, offers investors exposure to the gold market. • Dollar Dynamics: While gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, the US dollar can also appreciate in times of uncertainty. Therefore, the performance of XAU/USD depends on the interplay between gold and the dollar. • Interest Rate Sensitivity: Gold is generally inversely correlated with interest rates. Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on gold prices, as investors may prefer higher-yielding bonds. However, this relationship is not always straightforward, and other factors can influence gold's price. Conclusion The decision to invest in gold or continue with the yen carry trade is a complex one, influenced by individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market outlook. While the yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, the changing interest rate environment and geopolitical risks have increased its challenges. Gold, with its safe-haven appeal and inflation-hedging properties, offers a compelling alternative. Investors should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of both options before making a decision. It's important to note that this article provides general information and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
USD/JPY Reaches Key Demand Zone: Is a Bullish Reversal Imminent?The Japanese Yen (JPY) has extended its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive session on Monday. This consistent momentum is driven by increasing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may further tighten its monetary policy. The BoJ's potential shift towards a more hawkish stance is attracting significant market attention, as investors anticipate changes that could impact the currency's value. Additionally, the unwinding of carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets, is providing sustained support for the JPY. This unwinding trend suggests a repositioning of investments that favors the Yen, contributing to its recent strength. From a technical standpoint, the current price action has led the USD/JPY pair to a strong demand area, which aligns with multiple indicators pointing to a potential bullish reversal. Firstly, the pair has entered an oversold condition, suggesting that the selling pressure might be overextended and a corrective bounce could be on the horizon. Secondly, there is the potential start of bullish seasonality, a period during which historical data shows the JPY typically performs well. This seasonal trend could further bolster the case for a rebound. Our supply and demand strategy, which focuses on identifying key levels where price imbalances occur, indicates that the current demand zone is a critical area for a potential price reversal. This strategy has been effective in highlighting areas where buying interest may outweigh selling pressure, leading to upward price movements. Given the confluence of these technical factors, we are closely monitoring the price action for a long setup. We are particularly attentive to the behavior of the USD/JPY pair in this demand area. Should the price action confirm our expectations, we will look to enter a long position, anticipating a rebound. This approach aligns with our broader market analysis and strategic outlook, which aim to capitalize on identified opportunities supported by both technical indicators and market fundamentals. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USDJPY: Where is the Support?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵 As a bearish rally on USDJPY continues, the pair keeps violating key historic support levels, one after another. Here are the next significant supports to pay close attention to. Support 1: 140.2 - 141.0 area Support 2: 137.2 - 138.1 area Support 3: 133.0 - 133.9 area Support 4: 129.6 - 130.8 area Support 5: 127.2 - 128.1 area These supports may indicate the levels/zones where the fall may stop. Pay attention to these areas and strictly wait for a strong confirmation before you open any trade. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
Levels discussed on livestream 5th August 5th August DXY: Trading lower to 102.55, beyond that, could test 102 round number support level. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5930 SL 20 TP 50 AUDUSD: See reaction at 0.6465, RBA decision pending, Sell 0.6455 SL 20 TP 60 USDJPY: Look for retracement to complete (retest 144), Sell 143.50 SL 70 TP 250 GBPUSD: Buy 1.2870 SL 20 TP 70 EURUSD: Buy 1.1010 SL 20 TP 50 USDCHF: Sell 0.8540 SL 40 TP 85 USDCAD: Sell 1.3825 SL 20 TP 40 Gold: Needs to stay above 2410, break 2450 to retest 2480 resistance
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
#NIKKEI 225 - Is a world economic crisis coming?#NI225 #NIKKEI 225 Japan Stock Exchange First of all, let me start by stating that the graph is based on 3-Month data I have detailed all the necessary notes on the chart. The white trend line is the balance zone. Below and above it caused completely different reasons as can be seen. With the beginning of 2024, the mismatch on the RSI side signaled that it would fall. Therefore, a serious profit was realized. Perhaps the first steps of a major crisis may have been taken as Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 1997 and the Japanese Yen was recalled to the country.
TVC:NI225Short
by ugurtash
YEN - Major trend reversal or big correction ? • Japanese yen surged around 10% in July potentially marking the end of a multi year bull trend. • Markets expectation's of FED-BOJ policies convergence, especially after yesterday's delivery of the first rate hike by the BOJ and a dovish signal by the FED. • The pair broke below the previous major resistance/support at 151.70 and traded close to the ascending trend line support at 148. • The dollar yen is now trading just above 150 after attracting some buyers at the mentioned support level above. • If bears manage to keep the pair below the 151.70 level and potentially break the 148 level, their next downside target would be 146.50 followed by 140.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
USD/JPY H1 | Potential bearish reversalUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 150.77 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 152.53 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 148.50 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Overview of the BoJ Monetary Policy ActionsAt the start of 2024, the USDJPY was trading along the 141 price level , after it had retraced from the 2023’s high of 152. This was due to weakness in the US dollar as there was increasing speculation within the markets that the US Federal Reserve was likely to start cutting US interest rates by early 2024. But as the speculation grew that there could be less rate cuts than initially anticipated for the US. This saw a rapid strengthening of the US Dollar, which in turn, saw the USDJPY climb steadily to retest the previous high of 152 in March 2024 . Even when the BoJ ended their negative interest rate policy by hiking rates for the first time in 17 years on the 19th of March, they also abandoned their yield-curve control and ended most of their asset purchases aimed at policy easing. But, there was little to no effect on strengthening the Yen, as markets viewed that despite what was done, the policymakers lacked commitment to this path of monetary tightening. As such, the Yen continued to weaken, with the USDJPY breaking through the 152 price level in April to record a new high of 160. Which led to BoJ intervening twice in close succession, taking the USDJPY from 160 down to the 153 price point. But as what we have seen from all the previous currency interventions the USDJPY bounced back to not only reclaim the previous high but form new highs at 162. When the USDJPY got to the 162 price level, the BoJ intervened again to bring prices down to 158 . Paired with the weakness of the US dollar due to the US CPI reaching 3% and increasing speculations that the Federal Reserve was ready to start cutting rates in September, the USDJPY broke the bullish trendline to continue trading lower. This week, the BoJ hiked rates to 0.25% and indicated plans to significantly reduce its bond-buying program over the next couple of years. This led to the USDJPY breaking below the 152 price level (which is crucial as it was the level where the BoJ intervened back in October 2022, and where the price started reversing from in November 2023) we look for the USDJPY to continue trading lower down to the 147 key support level (and previous swing level). Once the price has reached the 147 level, the next move will likely depend on the volatility of the DXY and the interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve.
by JinDao_Tai
Will BoJ support Yen with a rate hike today?Macro theme: - On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen. - The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates, equity purchases, and yield curve controls. Technical theme: - USDJPY shifted its structure downward after breaking its support at 151.90. The price is trading below both EMAs, which is about to have a dead-cross signal, indicating that bearish momentum persists. - If USDJPY cannot sustain above 151.90, it may extend its loss to 150.80 and 146.50. - On the contrary, if USDJPY finds support at 151.90, the price may perform range trading within 151.90-155.80 till an apparent breakout occurs.
by DatTong
Implied volatility for USD/JPY spikes ahead of BOJ, FOMCThis time tomorrow we will finally know the outcome of the BOJ and FOMC meetings. Options traders clearly have it on their radar, as the 1-day implied volatility band has expanded to nearly 4x its usual range (defined with a 20-day average). But with bets of a hike already accompanied with a much weaker yen, traders may also want to be on guard for the potential the hike is already priced in. Or that the BOJ don't hike at all. The latter scenario could also help USD/JPY bounce quite hard heading into the FOMC meeting, where a loss-dovish-than-expected Fed could send it higher still. There is a support zone between 151.30 - 152 made up of several technical levels including a high-volume node, previous MOF intervention level and the 152 handle itself. Bulls could seek cheeky longs around such levels heading into the BOJ meeting and look to exit prior. Or hold on if they think the BOJ will disappoint (which they tend to do these days at their meetings). and that could see 152 act as a springboard. However, the 151.30 - 152 zone could quickly turn into an opened trap door should the BOJ deliver the hawkish meeting alongside a dovish tone from the Fed that markets are so desperately seeking.
by CityIndex
BOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike LeakBOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike Leaked The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a 15-basis point interest rate hike, surpassing market expectations of a 10-basis point increase or no change at all, according to NHK. This comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates a rate cut, potentially as soon as September. This could be why we are seeing what we are seeing on the USDJPY chart, with the yen rebounding from 38-year lows. The yen has jumped from around 162 per dollar in mid-July to approximately 153 per dollar, marking its most significant two-week gain of the year. Despite this, over three-quarters of economists surveyed by Reuters two weeks ago expect the BOJ to maintain rates at today's meeting. Some experts, including former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi, attribute this interest rate inertia to the weak underlying factors driving price movements.
by BlackBull_Markets
Carry Trade Unwind Boosts Yen R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium S1 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium S2 154.55 – 4 June low – Strong USDJPY – fundamental overview A large carry trade unwind via Aussie and Mexican Peso sales against the Yen, along with increased odds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month were behind the latest run of Yen demand. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets