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AUD/JPY H4 | Bearish momentum growingAUD/JPY is exhibiting strong bearish momentum and could potentially extend this current downtrend. Sell entry is at 99.07 (sell at market). Stop loss is at 100.10 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 98.29 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
CAD/JPY H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementCAD/JPY could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 111.95 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 112.58 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 111.03 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
How much higher can the USDJPY go?Yen weakness despite... BoJ Exited negative rates regime Increasing geopolitical uncertainty Gold at historic highs of 2430 In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen. However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese Yen continuing to show signs of weakness. Could 155 be the next target price level for an intervention?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Yen Traders Tread Cautiously as Japan Hints at InterventionAnxiety hangs heavy over the yen market. With the Japanese currency hovering near a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar, traders are wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. This comes as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen. The Yen's Slide: A Perfect Storm The yen's recent decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors: • Divergent Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve are aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This widening interest rate differential makes the dollar a more attractive investment compared to the yen. • Global Risk Aversion: As geopolitical tensions and concerns about a global economic slowdown escalate, investors are seeking refuge in dollar-denominated assets, further weakening the yen. • Japan's Trade Dependence: Japan relies heavily on imports for essential resources like energy and food. A weaker yen makes these imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation within Japan. Verbal Intervention: A Warning Shot Finance Minister Suzuki's recent statements can be seen as a warning shot to currency markets. He emphasized the government's "deep concern" about the yen's depreciation and hinted at the possibility of intervention if excessive volatility persists. However, the effectiveness of verbal intervention is debatable. Without concrete action, traders might remain skeptical. Intervention: A Double-Edged Sword Direct intervention in the currency market involves the Japanese government selling dollars and buying yen to artificially strengthen the currency. While this can achieve short-term results, it comes with drawbacks: • Costly Defense: Intervention can be expensive, draining Japan's foreign currency reserves. • Market Distortion: Heavy intervention can distort market forces and create uncertainty for traders. • Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of intervention depends on the size of the intervention and the broader economic backdrop. If underlying economic fundamentals favoring a weaker yen persist, intervention might have only a temporary impact. Traders on Edge: Waiting for the Next Move Yen traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode. They are closely monitoring the Japanese government's actions and statements, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, for any signs that could influence the yen's direction. The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act The future path of the yen will be determined by several factors: • The BOJ's Monetary Policy: Any change in the BOJ's stance, even a hint of a future rate hike, could strengthen the yen. However, the BOJ is expected to remain dovish for the foreseeable future. • Global Risk Sentiment: If global risk aversion eases, investors might be less inclined to seek refuge in the dollar, potentially aiding the yen. • The Effectiveness of Intervention: If Japan intervenes in the currency market and does so decisively, it might provide temporary support to the yen. Conclusion: A Fragile Currency in Uncertain Times The outlook for the yen remains uncertain. While the Japanese government may intervene to curb its rapid depreciation, the effectiveness of such strategies is limited without addressing the underlying economic factors. The future direction of the yen will likely hinge on global economic developments and the monetary policy decisions of major central banks.
by bryandowningqln
4
AUD/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounceAUD/JPY is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 99.37 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 98.07 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 101.34 which is a level that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
UJStill holding a buy, moved SL in profit. With the current price movement we might get stopped out. DAILY 151.90, we finally broke and closed above. We are now either waiting for the further bullish push up or the retest so we can enter on the continuation. This is the highest price UJ has been peaked at, so we know the dollar is doing quite well. 4H 152.80 gave us a form of support and we have been going up. Yet we wait and watch as it could shoot up and create new supports or breakdown to retest old resistance as supports. 1H We are seeing a test candle which is a form of reversal so stay watching for that. 152.80 is our support for either a breakdown or reject and shoot up. 15Min
Long
by Mhangwane1
GJStill holding a bad trade from yesterday, entered too early. DAILY We had a close with a reversal stop candle which was showing us downwards demand, now we we are forming a bullish reversal candle. So we know that the candlestick use is wrong, as we should use patterns to give us more guidance. Retesting 192.00, which we have established as our resistance and price of reversal. 4H 192.50 was the turning point and we are still moving to down side, so we will wait and hold. Having a trend within a trend, we have a bullish reversal channel forming in the larger bull structure, therefore we need a break and retest in order to fully execute this trade idea. 1H The close of the candlestick will give us the confirmation we need to start thinking of placing our sells. 191.60 is where we need to break and reject before we fully execute. 15Min First let price reach 191.80 and break through here first.
Short
by Mhangwane1
UJWe were also triggered in here, but SL was moved into profits so we were stopped out. Wen in again and fully got stopped out. Now we refine what the market is telling us. DAILY 151.97, our peak and our ceiling. Looking left what we are waiting for is a drop and a painful one. The dollar (DXY) has also given us signs of a drop. So we will plan and wait for the perfect entry. 4H This is the first peak to reach here that consolidated, the previous two rejected and price collapsed. So as much as we are anticipating the fall, we still have a long possibility. 1H 151.92 we will see this as another level of sensitivity. Probably placing a high risk Sell Limit just to confirm our bias. 15Min Leave that trade idea, it's not real
by Mhangwane1
GJWe were triggered in our sell and stop out within a few minutes. So we must sit back and wait for a better trading opportunity. DAILY We fighting to go up and candlesticks are very bullish. We will possibly see a 193.00 touch 4H Support at 192.00, if we get a rejection here at 192.70 we could get a nice sell opportunity. 1H It's a bad trade idea, we have only one confluence, RR is not what we would go for and highly risky. Our aim is to trade with the lowest amount of risk. 15Min Stay watching
by Mhangwane1
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar. A Perfect Storm for the Yen Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline: • Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders. • Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive. Intervention: A Looming Wildcard The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue. Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress? The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite: • Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly. • Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure. Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market: • Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government. • Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen. • Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. Disclaimer This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY H8 - Sell SignalUSDJPY H8 We were following USDJPY last week and this was something that unfolded nicely for us after a little bit of patience, profit was taken, risk was mitigated and we pushed back to entry following a stronger dollar during the NFP event on Friday. We are now pushing to the extreme levels of our major resistance price. Slightly south of 152 for the moment. But the whole number could be a good price to see a final attempt at shorts. Remember, we haven’t traded north of 152 for over 3 decades. 34 years! Opened stop loss a little here compared to previous measures, could certainly be worth a final shot. Offering between 10-15R.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
GJDAILY Still expanding the current wedge we are in. Peaking at 193.50, which could either be our ceiling this week or our target before heading up to 193.60 4H We are still in a small pullback flag, so the assumption stays that long term we are bullish but no commitment as of yet. 1H We either going to bounce on 191.30 or we are going to get rejected at 192.00, for now just hold on and wait. 15Min Opened with gapping downwards and now we are shooting upwards. So that shortfall will be recovered, for now stay watching. We'll wait for more developments.
by Mhangwane1
UJThe forecast went in the direction of the market. Which shows that we working and getting better and the edge getting sharper. DAILY We finally broke out of the consolidation and chose a direction (short). Bouncing off 150.80, with the current candle now pushing upwards. We have slight direction as to what we are doing. 4H Bull channel and we hit the bottom of the channel, with patterns confirming the rejection and bullish candlesticks pushing upwards for the reversal. 1H I see an inverse H&S and we are breaking the neckline of the pattern, so now it is a matter of waiting for the retest (151.30) before we enter any trades. 15Min Bearish low test candlestick (Reversal), which is playing exactly towards the trade we would take. NB!!!!!!!!! NFP FRIDAYS WE ONLY TRADE AFTER NFP TO AVOID DOING THE WRONG THINGS.
by Mhangwane1
GJWe did well on the trade. Now rinse and repeat. DAILY Broke down below 191.24 and closed there. We are currently forming a reversal candlestick, the next candlestick will give us direction. 4H We are trying to reverse from the drop that happened. Bouncing off 190.80, and we still pushing up. We still in the middle of a bear channel reversal, so we are waiting for it to touch either 190.00 or 192.00 before we follow through on any trades. 1H Waiting for the rejection at 191.24 or the break through of it so we get more direction of what we are doing. 15Min We in a downtrend, so there is no intention to look for longs. NB!!!!!!!!! NFP FRIDAYS WE ONLY TRADE AFTER NFP TO AVOID DOING THE WRONG THINGS.
by Mhangwane1
UJDAILY All we have is consolidation and reversal candles with no definitive pattern. Yet they are pushing upwards, tomorrow we will get the correct direction. 4H Inverse H&S and we still struggling to break the neckline of the pattern, therefore we have no guarantee that we are going up. We broke it but came right back and have been struggling to break it (151.70) 1H Once again we are rejecting the neck line 151.70 which should tell us that actual momentum we'll only see tomorrow before NFP, during NFP and after NFP. Till then sit still. 15Min 151.67 and 151.63, this gap should further show that there is still strength from the bears which has not fully played out as the volatility is yet to kick in.
by Mhangwane1
GJWe did well and got both our trades hit our exit point. Now rinse and repeat DAILY Broke through a resistance level and started creating new highs, plus our ascend was very impulsive and engulfed the bears in the market. Indicating we are pushing up and fighting bears now. 4H 191.24, the support price I will believe will give us further signs to look for longs in the market. 1H Broke 191.24, retested 191.80 and kept going. Now it's slowed down at 192.20 so we stay patient and wait for the trade to come to us. 15Min Next candle closes bearish engulfing and we will have some sort of bear run, just the length of the run we won't know exactly (remember we are in a full bull run, Daily structure)
by Mhangwane1
UJUPDATE 4H We are still consolidating and this is not the time to enter but rather the time to wait for a breakout of either direction. 1H We are in the middle of a channel but we are consolidating. If we follow the possible formation of the channel we expect a bull run to 152.20 which will be a break of the highs and a point to look for trades to enter. 15Min That trade idea placed is very poor and not one to take, especially where UJ and NFP week are involved as high volumes of volatility can kick in whenever high demand is supplied.
Long
by Mhangwane1