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Japanese Yen Hits Two-Week Low Before BoJ MeetingThe yen fell past 149.5 per dollar, a two-week low, ahead of the BoJ's policy decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates at 0.5% on Wednesday while assessing U.S. policy impacts. Despite a pause, rate hikes are anticipated later this year as rising wages and inflation support policy normalization. Major firms agreed to wage hikes for the third straight year, increasing consumer spending and inflation. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
GBPJPY - Higher Probability Favors Upside ContinuationThe GBP/JPY pair is displaying strong bullish momentum as it trades near 192.25, having recently tested but failed to break through the key resistance level at 193.05. After forming a higher low structure within an ascending trendline since late February, the pair shows notable strength with buyers stepping in at each pullback. Technical analysis suggests that the higher probability move is a continuation to the upside, with price likely to break above the horizontal resistance at 193.05 after a possible minor retracement. If this bullish scenario plays out, we could see the pair extend toward the 194.50 level before potentially reaching higher targets as indicated by the upward-pointing arrow on the chart. The ascending trendline and the support zone marked by the blue box near 191.00 should provide solid foundations for this anticipated upward move, keeping the overall bullish bias intact as long as price remains above these key structural levels. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by financialflagship
USDJPY - Bullish pattern towards descending trendlineThe USD/JPY pair appears to be forming a potential reversal pattern after reaching a low around 146.50 in early March. Having bounced from this support level, the price is now hovering near 148.60 with indications of a larger corrective move ahead. Technical analysis suggests we are expecting a bigger correction in this area, with the price likely to test higher levels before encountering significant resistance. The initial price target will be the upper boundary of the blue box area (approximately 150.50-151.00), with potential to go toward the descending trendline that has been capping price action since January. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by financialflagship
Yen Slips Against USD as Tariff Concerns Increase the DollarThe yen fell below 148 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains as trade tensions increased the dollar. Trump reaffirmed plans for reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. Despite this drop, the yen remains near a five-month high, backed by expectations of BOJ rate hikes. Japanese firms agreed to wage increases for a third year, aiming to offset inflation and labor shortages. Higher wages may spur spending and inflation, giving the BOJ room for future hikes. While rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, policymakers may pursue hikes later this year. Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 12, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continued to lose ground against its US counterpart for the second day in a row and moved away from the highest level since October, reached the previous day. Fears that US President Donald Trump may impose new tariffs against Japan have proved to be key factors undermining the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Data released today showed that Japan's annual wholesale inflation, the Producer Price Index (PPI), rose by 4.0% in February, indicating that inflationary pressures are intensifying. In addition, hopes that the sharp wage increases seen last year will continue into this year support the market's growing confidence that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further. This, should serve as a tailwind for the low-yielding yen and help limit losses. In addition, lingering concerns over the possible economic consequences of Trump's trade policies and a global trade war should support the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is near multi-month lows amid expectations that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut borrowing costs several times this year. This should help limit the USD/JPY pair's rise. Trade recommendation: SELL 148.35, SL 148.95, TP 147.35
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY H4 | Heading into an overlap resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 148.20 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements. Stop loss is at 149.45 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 146.53 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY - Bigger correction on the daily timeframeUSD/JPY's daily chart indicates we're expecting a larger correction in the near term, followed by a likely continuation of the downtrend toward the blue box target area (143.50-146.00). After reaching peaks near 162.00 in July 2024 and 158.00 in December 2024/January 2025, the pair has established a series of lower highs, creating a clear downtrend pattern. Currently trading around 148.05, the price sits at a critical juncture, with the projected path suggesting a temporary bounce (as illustrated by the zigzag line) before bearish momentum likely resumes. This outlook is supported by the consistent lower highs since mid-2024, the price's position near a historical support/resistance level, February's failed attempt to sustain prices above 150, and the overall downward momentum that has dominated since December 2024. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by financialflagship
USDJPY Weekly FOREX Forecast: March 10 - 14th In this video, we will analyze USDJPY and JPY Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups. After a long period of weakness in the YEN, the last couple of months have shown a turnaround. By several metrics, the BOJ has the country's economy finding its footing, and looking up. This is reflecting in its currency. It a time of uncertainty, the YEN will and has been outperforming the USD, as investors look to it as the safe haven of choice. This is likely to continue in the next week or so. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
GBPJPY - More downside?GBP/JPY appears to be in a potentially bearish setup after recently testing resistance. The chart shows that price has formed a significant consolidation zone with clear upper and lower boundaries marked by the red horizontal lines. After making a recent high, the price seems to be struggling to break above the upper resistance zone highlighted by the pink box. The long downward-pointing red arrow marked on the chart is our highest probability move that we anticipate right now. Given the recent price action and failure to establish new highs above resistance, the higher probability move is likely downward. This bearish outlook is supported by the apparent double top formation near the resistance zone and the pronounced selling pressure that has emerged after testing these levels. Traders should watch for a potential breakdown below recent support levels, which could accelerate the downside move toward the lower boundary of the range as indicated by the arrow's trajectory. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by financialflagship
Yen Steady Near 149 as BOJ Hints at Possible Rate HikesThe yen held near 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from a weaker dollar amid a stronger euro and Trump’s tariffs. While Trump eased tariffs for some automakers, retaliatory measures pressured the dollar. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida signaled potential rate hikes if economic forecasts hold, noting financial conditions remain loose with minimal JGB reductions. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 148.60, followed by 147.10 and 145.80.
by ChartMage
Dollar vs. Yen - Long Term Swing Trading Idea - 08-th Jan 25'USDJPY from 20-th Dec' 2024 to 6-th Jan 2025 created A-B-C-D-E formation which is 4-th wave. Then from 156.25 area till 158.55 created 5 waves and finished the trend. Our expectations for the next few days are the price to retrace at least 250 pips till zone of 156.00 and there will find support. Long term idea is to reach 153.00 level in period of one month. EURUSD is at weakest and creating a swing low at levels over 1.0250-1.0300. If EURUSD bounce back to 1.0600 that will confirm the USDJPY trading idea for weaker dollar in next few weeks. Trading idea parameters are as follows. Entry: 158.50 Stop 159.50 Target 153.20
Short
by TradingTie
4
USDJPY - Potential upside from here?USD/JPY is currently consolidating within a range after a sharp downtrend from the 159.00 level. The price has established support around 148.50-149.00, forming a clear pattern. We're now waiting for a decisive break above the current consolidation area, which would signal renewed bullish momentum. Once we see this breakout, expect a minor retracement to retest the broken resistance as new support – this will be our key buying opportunity. With the descending trendline already broken and the forecast indicating potential upside to the 154.00 area, traders should focus on buy positions following this retracement, with stops below the support zone.
Long
by financialflagship
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Optimal Options StrikesI. Introduction Options on futures offer traders a flexible way to participate in market movements while managing risk effectively. The Japanese Yen Futures (6J) market provides deep liquidity, making it a preferred instrument for options traders. In this article, we will explore how to optimize Bull Call Spreads in Yen Futures (6J) by understanding price equivalency and strike selection. One of the most critical aspects of trading options on futures is recognizing that continuous futures charts and contract-specific charts display different prices. This discrepancy must be accounted for when setting up trade entries and exits. Additionally, strike price selection significantly impacts the reward-to-risk ratio, breakeven price, and probability of profitability. By identifying key support and resistance levels (UFO), we will define trade setups that likely align with market structure, targeting precise entry and exit points. We will also compare different Bull Call Spread variations to understand how adjusting the strike selection impacts risk and potential reward. II. Understanding the Japanese Yen Futures Contract Before diving into the options strategy, it is essential to understand the specifications of the CME-traded Japanese Yen Futures (6J) contract: Contract Size: Each futures contract represents 12,500,000 Japanese Yen Tick Size: 0.0000005 USD per JPY (equivalent to $6.25 per tick) Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading cycle with short maintenance breaks Margin Requirements: Currently $2,900 (varies through time). For this article, we focus on December 2025 Yen Futures (6JZ2025). Since the market price displayed on continuous charts (6J1!) differs from contract-specific charts, we need to establish price equivalencies to align our trade analysis. III. Price Equivalency Between Continuous and Contract-Specific Futures Futures traders commonly use continuous charts (such as 6J1!) for analysis, but when trading options, it is crucial to reference the specific futures contract month (such as 6JZ2025). Due to roll adjustments and term structure variations, prices differ between these two charts. In this setup, we identify key UFO-based support and resistance levels and adjust for contract-specific price equivalency: Support Level Equivalency: 0.0066325 (6J1!) = 0.0068220 (6JZ2025) Resistance Level Equivalency: 0.0069875 (6J1!) = 0.0072250 (6JZ2025) These adjusted price levels ensure that the trade is structured accurately within the December 2025 contract, aligning option strikes with meaningful technical levels. IV. The Bull Call Spread Strategy on Yen Futures A Bull Call Spread is a vertical options spread strategy used to express a bullish outlook while reducing cost and limiting risk. This strategy involves: Buying a lower-strike call (gaining upside exposure) Selling a higher-strike call (reducing cost in exchange for capping maximum profit) This setup provides a defined risk-reward structure and is particularly useful when targeting predefined resistance levels. Given that we identified 0.0068220 as support and 0.0072250 as resistance, we will structure multiple Bull Call Spreads to compare strike selection impact. Now that the trade structure is established, let’s explore how different strike selections affect risk, reward, and breakeven prices. V. Strike Selection and Its Impact on Risk-Reward Ratios Selecting the appropriate strike prices is crucial when structuring a Bull Call Spread, as it directly affects the breakeven price, maximum risk, and maximum reward. To illustrate this, we compare three different Bull Call Spread variations using December 2025 Yen Futures (6JZ2025). 1. 0.00680/0.00720 Bull Call Spread Breakeven: 0.006930 Maximum Risk: -0.00013 Maximum Reward: +0.00027 2. 0.00680/0.00750 Bull Call Spread Breakeven: 0.0069789 Maximum Risk: -0.00018 Maximum Reward: +0.00052 3. 0.00680/0.00700 Bull Call Spread Breakeven: 0.006879 Maximum Risk: -0.00008 Maximum Reward: +0.00012 Observing these variations, key insights emerge. The 0.00680/0.00750 spread offers the highest potential reward but comes with the highest breakeven and greater risk. Meanwhile, the 0.00680/0.00700 spread minimizes risk but provides a lower profit potential. Strike selection, therefore, becomes a balance between profitability potential and probability of success. A wider spread (such as 0.00680/0.00750) has a higher reward-to-risk ratio, but it requires the price to move further before generating profits. Conversely, a narrower spread (like 0.00680/0.00700) has a lower breakeven price, increasing the probability of profitability but limiting potential upside. VI. Trade Plan for a Bull Call Spread Based on the analysis of strike selection, a balanced trade plan can be structured using the 0.00680/0.00720 Bull Call Spread, which offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio while maintaining a reasonable breakeven price. Market Bias: Bullish, expecting a move toward resistance Selected Strikes: Long 0.00680 call, short 0.00720 call Breakeven Price: 0.006930 Target Exit Price: 0.0072250 Maximum Risk: -0.00013 Maximum Reward: +0.00027 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.08:1 This setup capitalizes on the previously identified UFO support to define the entry point, while the UFO resistance provides a target for exit. The breakeven price remains at a reasonable level, ensuring a greater probability of the spread moving into profitability. VII. Risk Management Considerations While the Bull Call Spread limits risk compared to outright long calls, proper risk management is still necessary. Traders should consider the following: Using Stop-Loss Orders: If price breaks below the UFO support level at 0.0068220, traders may exit the position early to avoid excessive losses. Hedging with Puts: If volatility spikes or market sentiment shifts, a put option or put spread can serve as a hedge against adverse movements. Position Sizing: Adjusting contract size ensures that total exposure remains within acceptable risk limits based on account size. Time Decay Considerations: Since time decay negatively impacts long call options, traders should monitor the spread's profitability as expiration approaches and adjust positions accordingly. By implementing these risk management techniques, traders can optimize their Bull Call Spread strategy while mitigating unnecessary exposure. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6JZ2025Education
by traddictiv
2
USD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per DollarUSD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per Dollar As the USD/JPY chart shows: → Yesterday, the pair fell below the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar. → However, today it staged a strong recovery, rising back above this level. The yen weakened following the release of Japan's inflation data. According to Forex Factory, the National Core CPI increased by 3.2% year-over-year (forecast: 3.1%, previous: 3.0%). According to Reuters: → The 19-month high in CPI strengthens expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan. → The yen is weakening as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank may step up government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise. Can USD/JPY Continue to Rise? USD/JPY Technical Analysis On 12th February, we noted that key highs and lows over the past three months formed an ascending channel, with the 154 yen per dollar level acting as a resistance barrier. Indeed, since then, bulls have failed to sustain levels above 154 yen per dollar (as indicated by the arrow), leading to a decline below the lower boundary of the blue channel after a brief rebound on 18th February. As a result, the former support at the lower boundary of the blue channel may now act as resistance around 151.3 yen per dollar, reinforcing the relevance of the descending channel (marked in red). The trajectory of USD/JPY today could be significantly influenced by the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI indices at 16:45 GMT+2. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1