✨ ADD-ON: NZDJPY ✨ AGGRESSIVE SHORT (2D) ✨TIMELINE
00:00 Intro
00:52 DCA Entries, TPs, SLs
03:48 Technical Analysis for Novices
08:20 Technical Analysis for the Pros
10:55 BIG PICTURE (21D)
12:27 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
-SL @ 90.00 🚫
SLO2 @ 89.33 ⏳(21D)
SLO1 @ 89.00 ⏳ (2D)
SSO @ 88.33 ⏳ (2D)
TP1 @ 87.80 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 86.80 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 86.15 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 84.90 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 1.1475 (closing ALL Sell Orders)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
A few oscillators appear to be showing some bearish momentum on the NZDJPY chart. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is NEUTRAL, which is a sign of bearish momentum. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator is also NEUTRAL at its 14-day moving average, which signals increased distribution. Both are hinting towards selling pressure.
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Yen
✨ NEW: NZDJPY ✨ BIG PICTURE (14D) ✨🗣 SHOUT OUT TO @Vick_NZ for recommending I re-analyze this pair.
-SL @ 94.50 🚫
SLO @ 89.33 ⏳
TP1 @ 79.75 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 71.50 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 65.50 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 56.25 (shaving 25%)
SUPPORT @ 54.00
BLO @ 48.55 ⏳
BLO2 @ 77.85 ⏳
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CADJPY: Bearish Setup Explained 🇨🇦🇯🇵
CADJPY is trading in a rising wedge pattern on 4H.
And I guess you would agree with me that the pair looks quite overbought.
As a confirmation, I spotted a head and shoulders pattern on 1H time frame
with a confirmed neckline breakout.
We already shorted the pair with my students.
A bearish move is expected at least to the support of the wedge.
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USDJPY: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY.
Horizontal Key Levels
Resistance 1: 143.54 - 144.10 area
Resistance 2: 145.10 - 145.60 area
Resistance 3: 148.70 - 148.90 area
Resistance 4: 151.70 - 151.90 area
Support 1: 142.00 - 142.50 area
Support 2: 140.60 - 141.45 area
Support 3: 137.40 - 138.80 area
Vertical Key Levels
Vertical Support 1: rising trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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UJWe have been fighting the bears and only been bullish for quite a bit. Now we are just going to wait for the pullback/retrace which will tell us we should start preparing for the impulse. My current possible risk is inline with my plan, follows my mindset and it comes to me I don't have to go to it.
✨ NEW: EURJPY ✨ BIG PICTURE (1M/4W) ✨SLO @ 165.66 ⏳
TP1 @ 144.00 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 132.00 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 123.33 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 109.50 (shaving 25%)
BLO1 @ 98.25 ⏳
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USDJPY: Bullish Accumulation & Trading Plan 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is stuck on a key horizontal daily resistance.
The price is currently trading within a narrow range.
Because the current trend is bullish, I am looking for trend-following opportunities.
To buy with a confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of 142.0 - 142.45 area.
Daily candle close above will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected then at least to 143.5
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the support of the range may trigger
a correctional movement.
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USDJPY Mid-Term Bearish Expectation/Analysis The explanation for this analysis is in the text on the chart
This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy, which includes the:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
PD: excuse my poor english
EURJPY SELL OPPORTUNITYHello dear traders. Here my idea to EURJPY . we will expect short term bearish continuation.
Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments. Please like and subscribe to my profile.
Good luck to you.
This idea does not provide the financial advice.
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts
Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar
A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen.
It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.”
The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed.
BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates.
According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.”
BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world
It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling.
Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground.
Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows
BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen.
Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions.
It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency.
The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Bulls circle USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC meetingWhilst the US dollar has mostly retraced over the past couple of weeks against FX majors, it has held its own against then Yen. In fact, momentum is now turning higher after forming a triple bottom ~139 and breaking above a retracement line.
The most traded price during the prior consolidation is 139.55, which could provide a level of support if prices retrace ahead of its next leg higher.
Take note that overnight implied volatility has blown out ahead of the FOMC, so be prepared for some volatility before the next major move takes place.
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts
Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar
A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen.
It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.”
The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed.
BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates.
According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.”
BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world
It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling.
Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground.
Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows
BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen.
Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions.
It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency.
The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
GBPJPY: The Historical Structures 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY is unstoppable.
The market keeps growing like crazy.
Here are the next historical structures on focus:
Resistance 1: 180.35 - 180.75 area
Resistance 2: 186.80 - 188.80 area
Resistance 3: 194.94 - 195.83 area
I believe that the next goal for buyers is Resistance 1.
The market will most likely keep growing.
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🔥 MODIFICATION: NZDJPY 🔥 SWING TRADE 🔥Our technical analysis of NZDJPY is still in play. The pair has been in a downtrend for the past few months and has recently reached a Supply Zone (SZ) at 86.60 on the 15-hour chart. This SZ suggests that there is strong selling pressure at this level, and it is likely that the pair will continue to decline. The next resistance level is at 86.80, and if this level is respected, then we have a huge opportunity to capitalize on this downside pressure.
Resistance @ 86.80
Supply Zone @ 86.60
SSO2 @ 86.15 📉
SSO1 @ 85.15 📉
TP1 @ 84.35 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 83.66 (shaving 50%)
TP3 @ 82.33 (closing ALL Sell Orders)
BLO1 @ 82.00
BLO2 @ 81.25
-SL @ 80.85 🚫
USDJPY FOMC Prep 14th JuneIf the FOMC does pause on further rate hikes as forecasted, this is likely to cause further weakness in the DXY (read DXY analysis)
Weakness in the DXY could see the USDJPY trade lower. The USDJPY has been range bound since the start of June, trading between the resistance of 140.40 and support of 138.74.
Currently trading along the 140 price level, weakness in the DXY could see the price reverse lower, back down to the support level. Similar to the price action on the 5th of June.
A surprise rate hike from the FOMC could see the USDJPY rise, but the upside would be limited with the next key resistance level around 141 (the previous swing high at the end of May) and also with the increasing belief that any surprise rate hike would be the last to come from the FOMC.
USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Here is my detailed structure analysis for USDJPY.
Horizontal Key Levels.
Resistance 1: 140.63 - 140.93 area
Resistance 2: 142.06 - 142.46 area
Support 1: 138.48 - 138.80 area
Support 2: 137.38 - 137.95 area
Support 3: 135.20 - 135.49 area
Support 4: 132.95 - 134.27 area
Vertical Key Levels.
Vertical Resistance 1: Rising trend line
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading this week.
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EURJPY H1 - Short SignalEURJPY H1
Excuse the Heikin Ashi candles, my usual candles aren't seeming to want to load up for some odd reason. Anyway, we still have this 150.000 psychological number in tact, whilst the likes of GBPJPY looks to want to climb higher... The EURJPY seems to be at a bit of a halt here at 150.000. With the exceptions of a few fake-outs upside.