MarketBreakdown | Dollar Index, USDCAD, US30 Index, GBPJPY
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watchlist.
1️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) daily time frame 💲
After a test of a key daily structure resistance, we see a positive bearish reaction from that.
It looks like the Index will keep retracing to lower levels.
2️⃣USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦
The market is currently approaching the neckline of an ascending triangle formation.
Following the local weakness of a greenback, the pair may drop one more time from
the underline horizontal line to a rising trend lien.
3️⃣ US30 Index weekly time frame
The index reached a key weekly structure resistance.
Strong rejection on a daily time frame signifies a local overbought state of the market.
I will expect a pullback from the underlined level.
4️⃣ GBPJPY daily time frame 🇬🇧 🇯🇵
The pair successfully violated a key daily horizontal structure support.
The broken structure turned into a resistance now.
The market will most likely keep falling to lower levels soon.
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Yen
🔥NEW: USDJPY...DT (3H)🔥SLO @ 141.25 ⏳
SSO1 @ 141.00 ⏳
SSO2 @ 140.85 ⏳
Choose your TP based on your trading strategy:
💴 USDJPY (pip movement per strategy):
STRATEGY PIP MOVEMENT
Scalping 10-20 pips
Intraday 20-40 pips
Swing 40-80 pips
Position 80-120 pips
💴 The average ATR for USDJPY (based on different time frames):
TIME FRAME AVERAGE ATR
1 day 20 pips
4 hours 10 pips
1 hour 5 pips
15 minutes 3 pips
5 minutes 2 pips
✨ MODIFICATION: USDJPY ✨ SWING TRADE (1D/3H) ✨00:00 Swing vs Position Trades
01:45 Supply / Resistance
02:36 Entries and Targets
04:16 Intermediate vs High Time Frame
05:43 Demand Zone (3H)
07:42 Day Trade Opportunities
10:37 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
MAJOR RESISTANCE @ 149.00
-SL @ 147.60 🚫
SLO2 @ 146.60 (conservative) ⏳
SLO1 @ 145.15 (aggressive) ⏳
SSO1 @ 143.10 (aggressive) ⏳***
SSO2 @ 142.95 (moderate) ⏳
SSO3 @ 142.70 (conservative) ⏳
TP1 @ 142.25 (2D) (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 139.00 (3H) (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 135.75 (2D) (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 131.50 (12M) (closing ALL Sell Orders)
MAJOR SUPPORT @ 130.50
BLO1 @ 129.15 (1D) ⏳
BLO2 @ 128.15 (1D) ⏳
-SL @ 126.75 🚫
***PLEASE NOTE:
SSO2 and SSO3 are NOT annotated on the chart, but are listed here as alternative Sell Stop Orders
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USDJPY: Important Key Levels to Watch This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY
Horizontal Key Levels
Support 1: 137.24 - 138.05 area
Support 2: 135.20 - 135.46 area
Support 3: 133.00 - 134.24 area
Resistance 1: 144.80 - 145.05 area
Vertical Key Levels
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading this week.
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🔥 MODIFICATION: CHFJPY 🔥 POSITION TRADE 🔥Being that Price Action (PA) continues to go long, please manage your trades as we take the risk of shorting it from here.
SSO1 @ 158.50 ⏳
SSO2 @ 152.60 ⏳
TP1 @ 141.33 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 131.85 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 124.90 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 114.15 (closing ALL Sell Orders)
BLO1 @ 111.55 ⏳
BLO2 @ 105.25 ⏳
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UJ137.97 This is where I will be setting my Buy Limit.
If you zoom out and look at previous data, it was once a rejection point and then a level of sensitivity. So this Level once reached will be we have a buy limit ready and after the rejection we will place more buys to upside. Should it not reject and break right through our level of significance then SL will hit and we will look for more confluences.
JPY Basket (FXCM) - LONGWhile I am not a die-hard fan of FXCM's Yen Basket (much prefer NAFTA + Japan vs. "the World"), this index/basket is clearly working on an turn here. It is still relatively week but has likely put the worst behind it. Now, it is all about acceleration which, judging from past behavior, ought to gain significant momentum.
Again, I'd suggest to use this "basket" as an indicator rather than trading it outright - which is also possible.
(Work in progress on a properly weighted NAFTA + Japan Index.)
GBPJPY - Long Idea (Fibo)We broke the descending channel.
We can see that after the impulse, the correction and pump to 0.618 FIBO is perfect, so we can potentially take a long trade while following the current trend.
The news is still the same for the YEN, I don't expect a "quick" dump for the moment.
I would take my profits towards 800, but a stop loss at 800 is possible if the level is largely exceeded, why not try higher 😁
USD/JPY: The case for a bearish reversal buildsUSD/JPY has delivered a decent trend for bulls so far this year, having risen 14% since the January low. Yet we have been fully aware that net-short exposure to yen futures has approached a historical extreme as USD/JPT prices rose towards 145.
Incidentally, 145 was the upper range of the liquidity gap we mentioned in a previous article which has now been filled, and USD/JPY has printed a bearish engulfing week at the 145 handle.
With risks of yen intervention very real and traders positioned so strongly to the short side of yen futures, we suspect USD/JPY is at or very near an important inflection point. What could make the difference between a natural pullback against the YTD trend or a sharp reversal could be incoming economic data from the US and Japan. A softer-than-expected CPI report for the US could likely help push USD/JPY lower, but the real bearish catalyst could be if the BOJ finally get serious about abandoning their YCC (yield curve control).
Over the near-term, a move to the 140 and 138 handles seem achievable over the coming weeks as part of a much-deserved retracement against a one-sided trend so far this year.
DXY does the job for the BoJOver the last couple of weeks, the USDJPY retraced strongly from the 145 price level to the 137.20 price area.
As the USDJPY reached the 145 price level, there was significant speculation about whether the BoJ was going to intervene. However, it was the weakness in the DXY that brought the USDJPY lower.
Although the USDJPY, the price failed to break above 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level while also forming a pinbar rejecting the 139 price level.
Look for the USDJPY to break below the 137.70 support level to signal a continuation of the downtrend with the next key support level at 135.66 which was last tested 16th May 2023.
UJCOOL STUFF
The skill stays getting sharpened. We were inline with the market and the direction with the ghost pattern. Now we reset and put in our channels to watch just how we are going to face this week. With the month end approaching UJ has a sensitivity to Fundamentals, especially those with many orders placed by other traders. If we do get a trade this week, I will probably only post mid trade or at the end of the trade.
GBPJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY is falling after a test of a key horizontal resistance.
The price formed a double top pattern with a lower high
and successfully violated its horizontal neckline.
I expect a bearish movement to 180.53 / 179.88
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USDJPYThis is the simplest way I can explain this because the way I try to put down my ideas is not easily understood. The Ghost Patterns are what I would require in order to take a sell. Not going to risk it but going to use experience and proper planning in order to successfully trade. No guessing, the blue levels are the significant levels which are sensitive to movement.
CHFJPY Try to understand the movementAs we can see, at 2h Timeframe it is very clear that the price made a channel pattern, and yesterday it has broken through the resistance. where will the price go? from my point of view and how the candle moves ( you can see the daily candle ), the price will go to the strong area and will come back again. what's unique from here is that I found the possibility of a triple top pattern occurring
let see,
dyor
Japan Yen's Strengthen Secure a True Low Volatile HedgeAs the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy and inflation rates continue to drop, the Japan Yen has steadily strengthened. This trend presents a unique chance to diversify your trading positions and capitalize on Yen's increasing value. By incorporating the Yen into your portfolio, you can potentially shield yourself from market volatility and enhance your risk management strategies.
Why choose the Japanese Yen, you may ask? Well, let me share a few compelling reasons:
1. A Safe Haven Currency: Historically, the Yen has been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. It's stability and low volatility make it an attractive option for traders seeking a reliable hedge against market fluctuations.
2. Economic solid Fundamentals: Japan boasts a robust and resilient economy supported by technological advancements, a skilled workforce, and a commitment to innovation. These factors contribute to the Yen's strength and make it an appealing choice for traders seeking stability.
3. Diverse Trading Opportunities: The Japan Yen offers many trading opportunities across various currency pairs. Whether you prefer significant pairs like USD/JPY or exotic pairs like EUR/JPY, the Yen's liquidity, and popularity ensure ample chances to profit.
Now, it's time for action! Don't miss out on leveraging the Japan Yen's strengthening trend.
Here's what you can do to seize this opportunity:
1. Evaluate Your Portfolio: Assess your current trading positions and identify areas where the inclusion of the Japan Yen could enhance your risk management and diversification strategies.
2. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on market indicators, economic news, and central bank policies that may impact the Yen's value. This knowledge will help you make informed trading decisions and maximize your potential profits.
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Remember, the forex market is ever-evolving, and adapting to new trends is crucial for success. Adding the Japan Yen to your trading arsenal can unlock a true low-volatile hedge and amplify your gains.
IRRJPY LONG Iranian Rial getting stronger vs Japanease YenIran’s currency hits record low amid tensions with the West
Depreciation of the rial comes amid boiling tensions with the West and continuing protests in Iran.
On Sunday, the United States dollar went past the 450,000-rial mark for the first time on the open market.
On Sunday, the central bank said it will soon raise the maximum amount of currency that can be sold to an individual annually from 2,000 euros ($2,176) to 5,000 euros ($5,439) in an apparent effort to show it has no shortage of currency.
The cap was introduced after the US unilaterally abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, triggering a new currency crisis in Iran.
To combat currency devaluation, Iran’s police force has periodically announced the arrest of dozens of currency speculators in recent months.
Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki kept up verbal warnings on Tuesday against the yen's depreciation, saying he would respond appropriately if currency moves became excessive.
At the end the interest rates differential between 2 countries are important.
Which country offers more interest rates for your money? That currency is the winner
EURJPY H8 - Short ContinuationEURJPY H8
We keep following both EJ and GJ together because of the correlation, EJ seems to be leading the way for the moment, which is attractive thus far, as we hope it paves the path for GJ to follow suit.
The zone similar to our 180.00 handle on GJ has broken here on EJ. Which is promising for the expectation of more downside.
USD/JPY bears are at risk of being 'caught short'USD/JPY has been playing nicely with our analysis of late, having rallied to 145 and close the 300-pip liquidity gap we warned of before accelerating lower this week in line with our bearish bias.
But given levels of support nearby and a few metrics on hand, bears may want to be cautious around current levels.
USD/JPY is trying to close lower for a fifth day - which is a bearish sequence not seen since December (and April 2021 prior to that). It's current 5-day decline is also its most bearish since December, and 5-day moves between -3.5 to -5% tend to snap back higher. But it is also around the midway point of the congestion zone which formed in June, which are areas which can prove to be 'sticky' once retested.
With all these clues combined, we suspect a pause in the bearish move is imminent at a minimum (if not, a countertrend move seems more likely). Whether it can bounce hard and fast today is likely dependent upon whether US inflation comes in hot or not. But with so many indication of an inflection point, bears may want to refer to lower timeframes fore their shorts to avoid getting 'caught short' at the end of the cycle.
CADJPY I BOC Rate Statement Trading PlanWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CADJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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